CoolBreeze44 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:Robson tweets a great question: Suppose the Wolves had made a coaching change at the all-star break. Assuming the Wolves still played close to .500 basketball after the change, how would we be evaluating the new coach now? It's a rhetorical question, because I think Brit knows the answer is we'd be planning a parade for him! By the end of the year, the Wolves showed they were a .500 team with Mitchell coaching. If he truly were as ineffective a coach as he is depicted here, and assuming our young players continue to develop at the rate they did this year and we add new pieces through the draft and free agency, shouldn't we expect them take a big step beyond the last half of this year and be much better than .500 next year? I hope this isn't overly optimistic. but it seems to me that a 10-game improvement over the .500 pace the last half of the year is a reasonable expectation. I for one would be happy with a 51-31 record next year.
I was thinking about expectations for next season and your post kind of backs up what I was thinking. The goal next year should be 50 wins and we should at least aspire to land in the top 4 of the West. I'm sure that sounds ambitious to some, but it's time to raise our expectations for this group. Of course some things are going to need to take place this offseason: 1) Hire a dynamic coach 2) Make good use of our top draft pick 3) Sign one or two key young veteran pieces to fill out the rotation.
Ambitious indeed, but I don't want to hear talk about incremental improvement for next year. It's time for Tim's forecast to be more reality than fantasy.
I like the way you're thinking, cool. The Wolves were 10-10 under Sam Mitchell the final quarter of the season, so .500 (or 41 wins) should be the baseline from where we begin to forecast next year. We were reasonably healthy this year (some would say remarkably healthy this year, but three big men who could have been in the rotation (Pek, KG and Belly) missed significant time, so I would call it reasonably healthy), and my forecast assumes similar health. Then, add on the following variables:
Continuing maturation of KAT, Wig, Zach, G, Tyus, and even Ricky: 3 wins
Full season and additional comfort level from Belly: 2 wins
Addition of one lottery pick and 1-3 free agents that fill needs 2 wins
New coach and hopefully improved defense 4 wins
Total expected improvement over end of season performance 11 wins, which gets us to 52 wins
We all know how much NBA players generally improve in years 2-4, and more than half of our expected rotation players are in that category: Wig, Zach, KAT, Tyus, Gorgui, Shabazz and Belly. That's how OkC improved 27 wins in the season Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka entered their 2nd and 3rd seasons, so it's not unreasonable to expect a similar leap for the Wolves...and that's without even giving much credit to a new coach and system.
The time for excuses is officially over.