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Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:01 am
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
Ben Simmons is more mild-mannered than Jimmy Butler, but Rich Paul isn't and that's Simmons' agent. As I've said before, Simmons frustrations will be funneled through Paul and that will escalate the situation as it lingers on. Think of it similarly to how Anthony Davis conducted his escape from New Orleans. Guess who his agent is?

Not to mention, Anthony Edwards right now unquestionably has more trade value than Simmons. A blossoming, 20-year old star player on his rookie contract is like a Pro Bowl quarterback on his rookie contract. Teams aren't listening to trades for those guys, period. We've already heard the "untouchable" label attached to Edwards from trusted reporters. Why you choose to ignore this is beyond me, but here we are.

If I think this team as currently constructed can win 40-something games, then one could deduce that I'd think adding an All-NBA player to the mix would improve the amount of total wins. Is Simmons better than Edwards right now? Sure, but does Edwards have a ceiling that Simmons just can't get to? Yep. Is it possible to get Simmons without trading Edwards? Highly likely. What are we talking about here?

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:18 am
by FNG
monsterpile wrote:
FNG wrote:
Camden wrote:There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.


Wait Cam...are you my girlfriend in disguise? She's the only person I know who always says I have "a complete lack of understanding"....about damn near everything! And she loves D'Angelo Russell too! That you, honey? ;-)

I actually agree with what you are saying. Ant is Rosas's boy and potentially a star in this league (although I don't think he will ever quite get to Simmons' level), and there's no way he is going to offer him up unless another suitor puts a star on the table. And I agree that nobody has done that yet. But he also seems to be the POBO who most desires Simmons, so I think he will do whatever it takes to get him. So far the reported market is deals like Beasley and Jaden plus picks, but the ante might be upped as we get closer to a deal. I think you agree that Simmons is much more moderate in personality and not as disruptive as Butler, and Thibs didn't even trade Butler before the season started when the situation was much more broken than the Simmons situation. Do we think Simmons is going to show up and beat the starters by playing with backups in training camp? Nope, he's just not a dick like Butler. If Thibs didn't feel like he had to trade a cancer like Butler before the season started, why do you think Morey will take a bad deal just to get Simmons out of town.

And you didn't answer my two questions (and I'd love for others to weigh in also, because the Simmons situation is real, and this is a good talker).

1) Hypothetically, would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Steph Curry?

2) How many wins do you see the above rotation winning if we traded Ant for Simmons? Do you think Vegas would increase its posted win total if we made that trade, or would it still be 33.5?



FNG are you suggesting Simmons is going to be a first ballot HOF player and win multiple MVP awards?


Jason Kidd was a first ballot HOFer, and Simmons' career offensive stats are better than Kidd's...look it up. Far more PPG, slightly more RPG, slightly fewer APG, and a much higher TS%. And while Jason Kidd was a terrific defender and one of the top 5 PGs on defense of all time, he was never considered the best defender in the league (as Dane Moore's informal poll says Simmons is) and wasn't even the best defensive PG of his era (Gary Payton), and never was able to guard 4-5 positions like Simmons. If Simmons stays on the same trajectory, he will be a first ballot HOFer based on the Kidd situation. He will never be an MVP (just like HOFer Kidd was never MVP) because the vote is always slanted more to offensive stats like PPG.

My point was while Simmons is the consensus best defender in the league but has some flaws on offense (shooting), 25-year-old Curry is the same profile in reverse...elite offensive force with some flaws on defense.

But perhaps Kidd is a better comparison. With hindsight, hypothetically would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Jason Kidd. I hope you would, even with all the promise Ant has. To provide help in comparing Simmons and Kidd, here are their comparative stats. Objectively, how can anyone make the argument that Kidd is the superior player, except by saying "stats don't matter...it's more the vibe of the situation that matters".

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=simmobe01&player_id1=kiddja01&sum=0&request=1

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:24 am
by FNG
Monster, continuing the conversation, how do you answer these questions:

1) Assuming the Wolves make no more significant changes to their roster other than JMac and Vando, how do you evaluate the Vegas win projection total of 33.5? This isn't the wins projection thread so I'm not holding you to it, but what's your win projection for this year.

2) Take a look at my rotation with Simmons replacing Ant, and how many wins would you forecast?

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:52 am
by Lipoli390
FNG wrote:
Camden wrote:There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.


Wait Cam...are you my girlfriend in disguise? She's the only person I know who always says I have "a complete lack of understanding"....about damn near everything! And she loves D'Angelo Russell too! That you, honey? ;-)

I actually agree with what you are saying. Ant is Rosas's boy and potentially a star in this league (although I don't think he will ever quite get to Simmons' level), and there's no way he is going to offer him up unless another suitor puts a star on the table. And I agree that nobody has done that yet. But he also seems to be the POBO who most desires Simmons, so I think he will do whatever it takes to get him. So far the reported market is deals like Beasley and Jaden plus picks, but the ante might be upped as we get closer to a deal. I think you agree that Simmons is much more moderate in personality and not as disruptive as Butler, and Thibs didn't even trade Butler before the season started when the situation was much more broken than the Simmons situation. Do we think Simmons is going to show up and beat the starters by playing with backups in training camp? Nope, he's just not a dick like Butler. If Thibs didn't feel like he had to trade a cancer like Butler before the season started, why do you think Morey will take a bad deal just to get Simmons out of town.

And you didn't answer my two questions (and I'd love for others to weigh in also, because the Simmons situation is real, and this is a good talker).

1) Hypothetically, would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Steph Curry?

2) How many wins do you see the above rotation winning if we traded Ant for Simmons? Do you think Vegas would increase its posted win total if we made that trade, or would it still be 33.5?


FNG -

Just so you know, Cam is not your girlfriend in disguise. I am! And once again, it's clear you haven't been listening to me. You claimed that I say you have "a complete lack of understanding ... about damn near everything." Where did you come up with "damn near." Your complete lack of understanding extends to EVERYTHING! And yes, I love D'Angelo Russell, but not for the same reason as Cam. Cam loves his game. I love his body ... and those tattoos.

Now that we've cleared up those points, let's talk basketball and Simmons' value. What I'm about to say will highlight the fact that you understand nothing and I understanding everything:

1. Morey will trade Simmons before the season starts because keeping him under current circumstances will hurt the team without increasing Simmons' trade value. Simmons doesn't have to be a Butler-caliber jerk to hurt the team. His agent simply needs to hold him out, which he has indicated he'll do. Butler actually played game when the season started, but I think Rich Paul will keep Simmons out. And even if Simmons plays, it will be awkward for him and his teammates since everyone will no he's only there temporarily. By all accounts, Thibs could have gotten a better deal for Butler if he had dealt him before the season. He ended up trading Butler for the equivalent of pennies on the dollar. Morey's not going to make that same mistake.

2. Simmons' market value is not going to increase significantly between now and the beginning of the season. Why?

First, because there's no foreseeable catalyst that would have a significant impact on his value. The Sixers have had Simmons on the market for two months no and the offers haven't gone up. In fact, it appears the offers have gone down with Haliburton reportedly on the table initially but off the table now. The market has spoken and there's no reason to believe the market is going to substantially recalibrate as the season approaches. To the contrary, as the season gets closer, the pressure mounts far more on Philly than on any team that might be interested in him.

Second, I think you're mistakenly assuming that Simmons has an intrinsic value well in excess of his market value. At the end of the day, your value as a player or employee of any kind is what the market says it is. Simmons isn't some unknown who is just being discovered. He's been performing out in the public domain for years. And now he's been aggressive shopped in the market for at least two months. So the market has had plenty of time and information to fully and accurately value him. He's a terrific player, but he's seriously flawed and not at the same level as a Steph Curry, James Harden, Kevin Durant or AD. Simmons isn't just a poor perimeter and free-throw shooter; he's horrifically bad. He's hit 14.7% of this 3-point attempts in his career, but worse is the fact that his taken only around 0.2 per game. And his free-throw percentage is under 60%. That's Shaq-like, but Simmons isn't anything close to the beast that Shaq was inside. He not a leader, tends to fade in big moments and doesn't have an engaging personality that helps put fans in seats. There's a reason the Sixers are shopping him so aggressively after posting the best record in the Eastern Conference. It wasn't just one playoff series this year. This has been building for some time. Moreover, there's a reason teams have been summarily rejecting Morey's inflated demands and refusing to even consider putting players like Beal, Lillard or Fox on the table.

I don't know if the Wolves will end up with Simmons, even though that's my prediction. But I'm certain, Morey's not going to get Beal, Lillard of Fox. In that same vein, there's no way he should get KAT or Ant. There are any number of possibilities for the Wolves to get him. Once possible scenario is a deal built around a lot of future Wolves' 1st-round picks, Beasley and another player, possibly McDaniels (Cam's scenario). Another possible scenario would be a deal built around DLO, another player (possibly McDaniels) and future draft picks, but fewer than the number required in the first scenario.

Now, as your girlfriend, I feel obliged to answer your two questions:

1. Would I trade Ant for a 25-year old Steph Curry? Yes. But let me remind your that Simmons is closer to being Jack Kennedy than Steph Curry. :)

2. Would we win more games with Simmons than with Ant next season and would the Vegas win-prediction increase with Simmons rather than Ant? I think the Vegas win total prediction would definitely go up with Simmons over Ant? My answer to whether the Wolves would actually win more games is maybe/maybe not. More importantly, Edwards has huge upside and can actually become a better overall player than Simmons. He also has a huge, engaging personality that can inspire teammates and help put fans in seats. With that upside along with multiple years left on his inexpensive rookies contract, he's a much better value proposition than Simmons in my view. If I owned the Wolves and Rosas came to me to ask for permission to trade Edwards for Simmons, I'd say no and then immediately fire him for his willingness to make that deal.

My final point is that you had better not argue with me if you want to see me tonight!

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:02 am
by FNG
Ha, love it Lip...I have no rebuttal!

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:09 am
by Monster
FNG wrote:Monster, continuing the conversation, how do you answer these questions:

1) Assuming the Wolves make no more significant changes to their roster other than JMac and Vando, how do you evaluate the Vegas win projection total of 33.5? This isn't the wins projection thread so I'm not holding you to it, but what's your win projection for this year.

2) Take a look at my rotation with Simmons replacing Ant, and how many wins would you forecast?


I've made this mistake already but you do know the play in format from last year is happening this year right? Vegas is 34.5 and that would be good for a few 10 seed spots the last 10 years. Vegas predicts Memphis to get that last spot with 39.5 wins. In the past 10 years 50% of the time it was lower than that. So bass don history the wolves don't have to do something Herculean to get to the playoffs this year.

I really have no interest in making some theoretical win total number based on a trade that may or may not happen especially since there would likely be more moving parts. I won't be making a win prediction till close to the season because not only could the wolves make a move that would effect that another team could as well.

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:35 am
by FNG
monsterpile wrote:
FNG wrote:Monster, continuing the conversation, how do you answer these questions:

1) Assuming the Wolves make no more significant changes to their roster other than JMac and Vando, how do you evaluate the Vegas win projection total of 33.5? This isn't the wins projection thread so I'm not holding you to it, but what's your win projection for this year.

2) Take a look at my rotation with Simmons replacing Ant, and how many wins would you forecast?


I've made this mistake already but you do know the play in format from last year is happening this year right? Vegas is 34.5 and that would be good for a few 10 seed spots the last 10 years. Vegas predicts Memphis to get that last spot with 39.5 wins. In the past 10 years 50% of the time it was lower than that. So bass don history the wolves don't have to do something Herculean to get to the playoffs this year.

I really have no interest in making some theoretical win total number based on a trade that may or may not happen especially since there would likely be more moving parts. I won't be making a win prediction till close to the season because not only could the wolves make a move that would effect that another team could as well.


You may be looking at more updated betting lines than I, monster. As of August 21, the most recent line I can find, the Wolves are at 33.5. The Blazers are 8th with 43.5 and the Pellies are 10th with 40.5 wins. So the four posters who have predicted an 8th through 10th place finish are 7-10 games more optimistic than the Vegas line as of 8/21. This is consistent with the level of over-optimism this board has shown over the last 5-6 years as I showed in another thread this morning. That alone tells me the Vegas line is likely pretty accurate again,

If you have more current betting lines, please provide them. I'm always looking for silver linings, and I'd be more optimistic about this season if we were only 5 games out of the play-in according to Vegas instead of 7...although I still see less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs this year absent a blockbuster trade. And even if we make the playoffs, as Cool has pointed out the West is so top heavy this year, we'd be looking at an almost certain first round sweep.

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:36 am
by Monster
FNG wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
FNG wrote:
Camden wrote:There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.


Wait Cam...are you my girlfriend in disguise? She's the only person I know who always says I have "a complete lack of understanding"....about damn near everything! And she loves D'Angelo Russell too! That you, honey? ;-)

I actually agree with what you are saying. Ant is Rosas's boy and potentially a star in this league (although I don't think he will ever quite get to Simmons' level), and there's no way he is going to offer him up unless another suitor puts a star on the table. And I agree that nobody has done that yet. But he also seems to be the POBO who most desires Simmons, so I think he will do whatever it takes to get him. So far the reported market is deals like Beasley and Jaden plus picks, but the ante might be upped as we get closer to a deal. I think you agree that Simmons is much more moderate in personality and not as disruptive as Butler, and Thibs didn't even trade Butler before the season started when the situation was much more broken than the Simmons situation. Do we think Simmons is going to show up and beat the starters by playing with backups in training camp? Nope, he's just not a dick like Butler. If Thibs didn't feel like he had to trade a cancer like Butler before the season started, why do you think Morey will take a bad deal just to get Simmons out of town.

And you didn't answer my two questions (and I'd love for others to weigh in also, because the Simmons situation is real, and this is a good talker).

1) Hypothetically, would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Steph Curry?

2) How many wins do you see the above rotation winning if we traded Ant for Simmons? Do you think Vegas would increase its posted win total if we made that trade, or would it still be 33.5?



FNG are you suggesting Simmons is going to be a first ballot HOF player and win multiple MVP awards?


Jason Kidd was a first ballot HOFer, and Simmons' career offensive stats are better than Kidd's...look it up. Far more PPG, slightly more RPG, slightly fewer APG, and a much higher TS%. And while Jason Kidd was a terrific defender and one of the top 5 PGs on defense of all time, he was never considered the best defender in the league (as Dane Moore's informal poll says Simmons is) and wasn't even the best defensive PG of his era (Gary Payton), and never was able to guard 4-5 positions like Simmons. If Simmons stays on the same trajectory, he will be a first ballot HOFer based on the Kidd situation. He will never be an MVP (just like HOFer Kidd was never MVP) because the vote is always slanted more to offensive stats like PPG.

My point was while Simmons is the consensus best defender in the league but has some flaws on offense (shooting), 25-year-old Curry is the same profile in reverse...elite offensive force with some flaws on defense.

But perhaps Kidd is a better comparison. With hindsight, hypothetically would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Jason Kidd. I hope you would, even with all the promise Ant has. To provide help in comparing Simmons and Kidd, here are their comparative stats. Objectively, how can anyone make the argument that Kidd is the superior player, except by saying "stats don't matter...it's more the vibe of the situation that matters".

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=simmobe01&player_id1=kiddja01&sum=0&request=1


That's an interesting worthwhile angle. Here is something to consider because it's a pretty big difference. Jason Kidd his rookie year in a completely different era took 274 3's. Yes Simmons is much more efficient but he is basically a zero threat to score outside of the paint. That's a big deal. Simmons will likely be a very good defender for his career but Kidd was exceptional and often underrated on that end imo. He was still a high level defender in his mid to late 30's. In addition one of the reasons why Kidd is in the HOF was his longevity. Not every guy is going to be able to play that long.

So you are ok with projecting Simmons to be a HOF player but not Edwards? Is Simmons going to be worth 2.5 times more salary for 2 years after this season? If Kidd with the flaws he had was that much more expensive...nope and I was a big fan of Kidd's ability on the basketball court from the first time I watched him play a game for California. Edwards had a very good rookie season and he was supposed to be raw, didn't have a summer league or much time to get acclimated with his team etc. maybe he does t improve especially defense overly but you are also suggesting Simmons will improve like Kidd did and stay healthy also. Those things are not guaranteed either.

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:59 am
by FNG
Monster, I was one of the biggest proponents of Ant here as the first round pick (actually I didn't join the board until post-draft, so you'll just have to trust me that I saw Ant as far superior to Ball and Wiseman :) ). And I really enjoyed his rookie year...both his enthusiasm and athleticism, and his improvement over the course of the year. I have no reason to challenge my initial believe that he should have been picked first, and I'm as excited as many here to see what he can become. But we also saw some of the flaws in his game that some worried about in college...inconsistent shot selection leading to inefficiency and indifferent defense. If he is able to change and overcome both of these, he has a chance to become a HOFer...we obviously don't know enough about him to know what he will be, whereas we have 6 years of results for Simmons.

One intangible about Ant that worries me is his occasional lack of gravitas. Don't get me wrong...I enjoyed his almost childlike demeanor and enthusiasm on the court last season as much as anyone. But I've posted here before (and I admit most disagree) if you think about the on-court demeanor of HOFers, I can't think of anyone other than perhaps Rodman with an Ant-like personality. The typical HOFer consistently had a game face on almost all the time...even at age 20. Think Jordan, Bird, Duncan, etc. I see a difference in gravitas between Ant and the great ones, and I wonder if that might hold him back...even if he is constantly entertaining.

To summarize, I think the Wolves have a unique opportunity to pick up a player who instantly changes them...these opportunities seldom come along. Ant is fun to watch and has potentially a very high ceiling. But we don't know. And this team needs defense...badly. And to choose to not acquire the best defensive player in the league in exchange for a 20-year-old who we all admit has some flaws...that would be short-sighted in my opinion.

Re: Simmons Prediction Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:44 pm
by D-Mac [enjin:19736340]
Camden0916 wrote:There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG, when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.


Exactly. Trading edwards for Simmons would be like trading Lavine for butler, only it would be even worse I think.