Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.



While that's true... Memphis has D. Melton waiting in the wings (56.8% TS)
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.


I get it...On paper, he doesn't seem like much of a difference maker, yet he started pretty much every game and played the second most minutes on a team that reached a level of performance last season that we have reached once in the past decade. I attribute it to culture as much as anything. My guess is Dillon Brooks would probably look horrible the second he puts on a Wolves uniform.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Q12543 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.


I get it...On paper, he doesn't seem like much of a difference maker, yet he started pretty much every game and played the second most minutes on a team that reached a level of performance last season that we have reached once in the past decade. I attribute it to culture as much as anything. My guess is Dillon Brooks would probably look horrible the second he puts on a Wolves uniform.



Brooks is an interesting enigma, isn't he?

I looked closer at his stats. YUCK. He has a negative VORP every season which would indicate that he's worse than merely an average bench player. He's literally had a negative OBPM and DBPM every season in his career. Last year I discussed how crazy it was that the Wolves had guys with a negative Win Shares. Yet here's Brooks on a decent team with WS ratings in the Josh Okogie and McLaughlin range. Heck, Gorgui Dieng in only 22 games had a higher WS total than Dillon Brooks in 67 games. Brooks was 12th on his own team!!!

But he's a key player for a good team... getting more minutes than everybody else but the franchise PG.

Isn't Brooks one of the guys who routinely killed the Wolves historically? He seems wildly inconsistent when I watch him play. But he also seems like a confident tough guy who isn't backing down from anybody. He's known for good defense... but he's also a hack... leading the league in fouls for two straight seasons.

There's value there. Only how much? One of the league's oddities for sure.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

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Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


Yep, defense is the rub. I like that Rosas has been accumulating young talent since he took over. But at some point, he'll have to shift focus a bit to shaping the right balance of talent.
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Monster
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by Monster »

Q12543 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.


I get it...On paper, he doesn't seem like much of a difference maker, yet he started pretty much every game and played the second most minutes on a team that reached a level of performance last season that we have reached once in the past decade. I attribute it to culture as much as anything. My guess is Dillon Brooks would probably look horrible the second he puts on a Wolves uniform.


I posted that stat and I'm a fan of Brooks and was from his time in college. I just thought in a thread about stats it was worth mentioning Brooks is pretty inefficient. I wonder what his advanced numbers looked like his first couple years.

Abe always talks about looking at if a guy is improving. His first season Naz was a nice surprise but he didn't exactly do well statistically on the offensive end which led to a TS% just over 50% which is pretty bad for a big. This year both watching him and the stats he clearly improved (and he clearly put in some work on his body) and his TS% jumped to nearly 60%. In general that offensive skill set that it looked like he had his rookie year translated. Will he keep improving in some way? Idk but even offensive bigs with a reasonably diverse skill set like Naz has would have some value even if they don't become worthwhile defenders.

But to your point it would be nice to have more players that didn't have massive holes in their games. I know expectations are tempered for Bolmaro and rightfully so especially for this season but he is a guy that theoretically has skills to be one of those do a lot of things decently guys that could be pretty valuable at some point.

The Wolves need to be able to better players whether it's younger prospects or vets they bring in. So far they haven't exactly put together a great track record of guys that have been around for a few years coming in and doing well. Hopefully Finch and his staff can work a bit of magic there. For example they don't need to turn Prince into an all star but maybe a somewhat Lesser version of the good years of Demarre Carroll would be pretty useful.
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.


I get it...On paper, he doesn't seem like much of a difference maker, yet he started pretty much every game and played the second most minutes on a team that reached a level of performance last season that we have reached once in the past decade. I attribute it to culture as much as anything. My guess is Dillon Brooks would probably look horrible the second he puts on a Wolves uniform.



Brooks is an interesting enigma, isn't he?

I looked closer at his stats. YUCK. He has a negative VORP every season which would indicate that he's worse than merely an average bench player. He's literally had a negative OBPM and DBPM every season in his career. Last year I discussed how crazy it was that the Wolves had guys with a negative Win Shares. Yet here's Brooks on a decent team with WS ratings in the Josh Okogie and McLaughlin range. Heck, Gorgui Dieng in only 22 games had a higher WS total than Dillon Brooks in 67 games. Brooks was 12th on his own team!!!

But he's a key player for a good team... getting more minutes than everybody else but the franchise PG.

Isn't Brooks one of the guys who routinely killed the Wolves historically? He seems wildly inconsistent when I watch him play. But he also seems like a confident tough guy who isn't backing down from anybody. He's known for good defense... but he's also a hack... leading the league in fouls for two straight seasons.

There's value there. Only how much? One of the league's oddities for sure.


Right. Memphis gets away with an oddity like Brooks and you just know in your gut that if he were on the Wolves, those poor stats would translate to losing. There is something unmeasurable at work here which I attribute to the fuzzy concept of culture. I get that Memphis had JoVal and Morant, but those guys aren't THAT good.
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

lipoli390 wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


Yep, defense is the rub. I like that Rosas has been accumulating young talent since he took over. But at some point, he'll have to shift focus a bit to shaping the right balance of talent.


I think the defensive issue is a cultural issue that has transcended regimes. Seriously, the last time the Wolves were NOT in the bottom 10 of the league defensively was 8 seasons ago when Adelman was coaching and Pekovic was their starting Center. Well-known defensive stalwarts Kevin Love and Kevin Martin were also mainstays in the starting lineup that year. I mean, WTF!? That team achieves the 12th-rated defense in the league and the Thibs-Butler-Gibson trio can't lift us out of the bottom 5!?

I don't know how much Rosas can do honestly. It's going to have to be a grassroots effort involving the right combination of coaches and players that buy in. Obviously Thibs/Butler/Gibson couldn't get the rest of the squad to care enough about defense. Finch is stuck with KAT and DLO - hardly culture setters when it comes to defense.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Q12543 wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.


I get it...On paper, he doesn't seem like much of a difference maker, yet he started pretty much every game and played the second most minutes on a team that reached a level of performance last season that we have reached once in the past decade. I attribute it to culture as much as anything. My guess is Dillon Brooks would probably look horrible the second he puts on a Wolves uniform.



Brooks is an interesting enigma, isn't he?

I looked closer at his stats. YUCK. He has a negative VORP every season which would indicate that he's worse than merely an average bench player. He's literally had a negative OBPM and DBPM every season in his career. Last year I discussed how crazy it was that the Wolves had guys with a negative Win Shares. Yet here's Brooks on a decent team with WS ratings in the Josh Okogie and McLaughlin range. Heck, Gorgui Dieng in only 22 games had a higher WS total than Dillon Brooks in 67 games. Brooks was 12th on his own team!!!

But he's a key player for a good team... getting more minutes than everybody else but the franchise PG.

Isn't Brooks one of the guys who routinely killed the Wolves historically? He seems wildly inconsistent when I watch him play. But he also seems like a confident tough guy who isn't backing down from anybody. He's known for good defense... but he's also a hack... leading the league in fouls for two straight seasons.

There's value there. Only how much? One of the league's oddities for sure.


Right. Memphis gets away with an oddity like Brooks and you just know in your gut that if he were on the Wolves, those poor stats would translate to losing. There is something unmeasurable at work here which I attribute to the fuzzy concept of culture. I get that Memphis had JoVal and Morant, but those guys aren't THAT good.



I know a couple of people here listen to The Ringer's Mismatch podcast.

One of the hosts is the Grizzlies play-by-play guy, Chris Vernon. While I agree with some of his older school takes that eschew some of today's more analytical-minded approaches... it's downright amusing when he tries to temper his disdain for the Timberwolves.

As a guy who earned his NBA keep during the Grit-N-Grind era, it's of little wonder why he'd marginalize/despise an organization like the Wolves so much. The two organizations should have a few things in common -- but it gets lost in how each has gone about building teams/rosters/cultures.
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by SameOldNudityDrew »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
Q12543 wrote:And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.


FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.


I get it...On paper, he doesn't seem like much of a difference maker, yet he started pretty much every game and played the second most minutes on a team that reached a level of performance last season that we have reached once in the past decade. I attribute it to culture as much as anything. My guess is Dillon Brooks would probably look horrible the second he puts on a Wolves uniform.



Brooks is an interesting enigma, isn't he?

I looked closer at his stats. YUCK. He has a negative VORP every season which would indicate that he's worse than merely an average bench player. He's literally had a negative OBPM and DBPM every season in his career. Last year I discussed how crazy it was that the Wolves had guys with a negative Win Shares. Yet here's Brooks on a decent team with WS ratings in the Josh Okogie and McLaughlin range. Heck, Gorgui Dieng in only 22 games had a higher WS total than Dillon Brooks in 67 games. Brooks was 12th on his own team!!!

But he's a key player for a good team... getting more minutes than everybody else but the franchise PG.

Isn't Brooks one of the guys who routinely killed the Wolves historically? He seems wildly inconsistent when I watch him play. But he also seems like a confident tough guy who isn't backing down from anybody. He's known for good defense... but he's also a hack... leading the league in fouls for two straight seasons.

There's value there. Only how much? One of the league's oddities for sure.


Right. Memphis gets away with an oddity like Brooks and you just know in your gut that if he were on the Wolves, those poor stats would translate to losing. There is something unmeasurable at work here which I attribute to the fuzzy concept of culture. I get that Memphis had JoVal and Morant, but those guys aren't THAT good.



I know a couple of people here listen to The Ringer's Mismatch podcast.

One of the hosts is the Grizzlies play-by-play guy, Chris Vernon. While I agree with some of his older school takes that eschew some of today's more analytical-minded approaches... it's downright amusing when he tries to temper his disdain for the Timberwolves.

As a guy who earned his NBA keep during the Grit-N-Grind era, it's of little wonder why he'd marginalize/despise an organization like the Wolves so much. The two organizations should have a few things in common -- but it gets lost in how each has gone about building teams/rosters/cultures.


I really like KOC, but Verno sometimes drives me nuts. I don't get the impression he doesn't like the Wolves though. I think he tends more often to lump us with Memphis and other less-desirable markets together and complain about how the league, or the press, or whoever is always screwing those teams over. To me anyway, he comes off as a kind of resentful, insecure, argumentative, and defensive person, not just about teams like his, but also about himself. I definitely get the feeling that he's a little jealous of KOC's popularity. He often seems to try to call out himself for being right about something and KOC for being wrong about something in hindsight, but as a regular listener of the show, I can say he's pretty, well, "selective" about how he remembers who said what. He'll take an offhand comment that KOC makes, then bring it back weeks later, blow it up and try to make it sound like KOC made some sort of ironclad promise that recent events would prove wrong. I appreciate that KOC tends not to get sucked into that too much. I guess that's why they call it the Mismatch, and I do listen to it, for what it's worth. I guess Verno is kind of like the color guy in that partnership. But I do prefer to listen to KOC, J. Kyle Mann, and Tjarks (hope he has a full recovery). I remember they used to have Shea Serrano on those Ringer basketball podcasts, but I haven't heard him in years. That dude was hilarious. I'd listen to a podcast with Serrano, Tjarks, and KOC all day long.

EDIT: I do share Verno's taste in players to some degree though, I will say that. We both like hard-nosed, effort guys who play balls-to-the-wall.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Obviously, Drew wants to blow up the Mismatch podcast and start over.
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