Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:Correct. Charlotte isn't entertaining any LaMelo Ball trade either. It's an absolute non-starter. Memphis isn't considering Ja Morant. Sacramento isn't considering De'Aaron Fox. Oklahoma City isn't considering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The list could go on. You have to understand the situation Philadelphia put themselves in and realize that it significantly dampens what they're going to get for Ben Simmons. The haul will still be respectable in terms of assets, but nothing near what Simmons' on-court value represents, which is where I think your head is right now. We're long past that in terms of trade value.

I agree, Cam. You and I disagree around the edges about what the Wolves would have to do to get Simmons and whether the Kings might ultimately put Fox on the table. But I fundamentally agree with you that Morey has overplayed his hand and that the ground has shifted to the point where Morey is not going to get the haul he expected for his all-star, defensive-player-of-the-year brick layer.

Oh dear God, I promise to be a good boy and say my prayers every night if you just bring my sad franchise a few more "bricklayers" with a TS% of 58.4%...KAT could use a little company up there! And wait, you're saying he plays a little defense too? ;-) .

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Listening to NBA radio yesterday, they had an insider on who said the Simmons/Sixers bond was broken beyond the point of return. Simmons won't report if he's not traded.

I'm with Monster, I wouldn't trade Ant for Zion, though my reasoning is mostly health based. Would I trade Ant for Simmons straight up? That's a really hard one for me, but I think Simmons makes us a contender whereas we have hope for someday being a contender with Ant. I think I would do it.

Ah good point about Zion's health...I suppose that was monster's angle too.

FNG wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:Correct. Charlotte isn't entertaining any LaMelo Ball trade either. It's an absolute non-starter. Memphis isn't considering Ja Morant. Sacramento isn't considering De'Aaron Fox. Oklahoma City isn't considering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The list could go on. You have to understand the situation Philadelphia put themselves in and realize that it significantly dampens what they're going to get for Ben Simmons. The haul will still be respectable in terms of assets, but nothing near what Simmons' on-court value represents, which is where I think your head is right now. We're long past that in terms of trade value.

I agree, Cam. You and I disagree around the edges about what the Wolves would have to do to get Simmons and whether the Kings might ultimately put Fox on the table. But I fundamentally agree with you that Morey has overplayed his hand and that the ground has shifted to the point where Morey is not going to get the haul he expected for his all-star, defensive-player-of-the-year brick layer.

Oh dear God, I promise to be a good boy and say my prayers every night if you just bring my sad franchise a few more "bricklayers" with a TS% of 58.4%...KAT could use a little company up there! And wait, you're saying he plays a little defense too? ;-) .

Your scoring efficiency is somewhat dependent on where you're taking the bulk of your shots. 91-percent (!) of Ben Simmons' shot attempts come within 0-10 feet of the rim. He's very efficient in and around the painted area scoring 57-percent of those attempts. Anything outside of that and he's very much a bricklayer, as Lip put it. Additionally, it's a compounded issue because Simmons won't even make opposing defenses play his shot as he just won't attempt anything outside of 10-feet. Like everything, there's context that needs to be included. Simmons is tremendous at getting downhill and finishing. He also has no semblance of a perimeter shot, which is a detriment to his individual game and the team's. Both can be true. It's why he's available in the first place.

Camden wrote:

FNG wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:Correct. Charlotte isn't entertaining any LaMelo Ball trade either. It's an absolute non-starter. Memphis isn't considering Ja Morant. Sacramento isn't considering De'Aaron Fox. Oklahoma City isn't considering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The list could go on. You have to understand the situation Philadelphia put themselves in and realize that it significantly dampens what they're going to get for Ben Simmons. The haul will still be respectable in terms of assets, but nothing near what Simmons' on-court value represents, which is where I think your head is right now. We're long past that in terms of trade value.

I agree, Cam. You and I disagree around the edges about what the Wolves would have to do to get Simmons and whether the Kings might ultimately put Fox on the table. But I fundamentally agree with you that Morey has overplayed his hand and that the ground has shifted to the point where Morey is not going to get the haul he expected for his all-star, defensive-player-of-the-year brick layer.

Oh dear God, I promise to be a good boy and say my prayers every night if you just bring my sad franchise a few more "bricklayers" with a TS% of 58.4%...KAT could use a little company up there! And wait, you're saying he plays a little defense too? ;-) .

Your scoring efficiency is somewhat dependent on where you're taking the bulk of your shots. 91-percent (!) of Ben Simmons' shot attempts come within 0-10 feet of the rim. He's very efficient in and around the painted area scoring 55.7-percent of those attempts. Anything outside of that and he's very much a bricklayer, as Lip put it. Additionally, it's a compounded issue because Simmons won't even make opposing defenses play his shot as he just won't attempt anything outside of 10-feet. Like everything, there's context that needs to be included. Simmons is tremendous at getting downhill and finishing. He also has no semblance of a perimeter shot, which is a detriment to his individual game and the team's. Both can be true. It's why he's available in the first place.

Cam, I get that many of us here would stand a fair chance of beating Ben in a game of horse, so I was joking a little with Lip about the bricklayer thing. But seriously, being an effective offensive player means playing to your strengths and avoiding your weaknesses. If you do that, there's a good chance you're going to be an efficient scorer like Ben is. Zion Williamson took 34 total 3-pointers last season, and some would say that was 34 too many! And many cringe whenever Giannis lets it fly beyond the arc. And they both make free throws at about the same rate as Ben. But not too many complain about their offense. Ant is just starting to learn this, and that's why his efficiency improved as the season progressed...albeit not to Ben's level of course.

And I hear the argument about how his lack of a perimeter game has a detrimental impact on his team's offense, but I don't see compelling data to support this assertion. In fact as I've pointed out here before, in the playoffs this year when defenses really buckle down and are most likely to exploit another team's weaknesses, the 76ers scored an unbelievable 25.5 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court then when he was off...you just don't see numbers like that very often. It seems to me that Ben not only has found a way to score 14 PPG in an very efficient manner, while also facilitating an effective offense. I can live with that performance, even if he never takes a 3-pointer.

FNG, if Ben Simmons could shoot and make shots from mid-range to the three point-line even slightly below league average -- even if it means decreasing his overall efficiency because he takes more of them -- Philadelphia wouldn't have lost to Atlanta in the playoffs and he wouldn't even be available right now. The game of basketball isn't solely numbers-based. Defenses have to respect what a player has shown he can or will do. If a player simply will not attempt shots outside of a certain zone, then it means the defense doesn't have to account for that as a threat and they can force their attention elsewhere. That affects everything else for said player's game as well as his teammates'. That's the point I'm getting at.

FNG - I'm not surprised that the Sixers score more with Simmons on the floor than when he's on the bench. It's partially a function of who is on the court when he's not. And it's also a function of the fact that, while he's a brick layer, he's not a complete deadbeat offensively. He's an excellent playmaker and, yes, he's an effective scorer inside. I think everyone on this message board recognizes that Ben Simmons is a terrific talent. But that doesn't mean we should gloss over his weaknesses. His poor perimeter shooting outside 10 feet and terrible free-throw shooting are serious liabilities on the offensive end. I also think there's a certain lack of mental as well as physical toughness in him that you don't see lacking in Giannis. There might even be some other negative that we're not aware of. Let's face it; there's a reason the Sixers are in full sell mode with Simmons. And there's a reason Morey hasn't gotten any offers remotely close to the haul he was seeking. If Simmons wasn't a seriously flawed player, the Sixers wouldn't have put him on the trading block just after posting the best regular season record in the Eastern Conference. And a bidding war would have ensured right out of the gate.

There's nothing that's likely to happen between now and the start of training camp that will provide a boost to Simmons' trade value. And Simmons being a distraction in training camp if he's still here, while annoying at the moment, may not be all that damaging to his value around the NBA. League executives are already well aware of Simmons' strengths and weaknesses, and the holdout isn't likely to decrease interest from the teams already intrigued by Simmons.

What could be impacted is the Sixers' leverage, as teams are now left with every incentive to hold back from making their best offer to see if the discomfort of the situation forces the Sixers to accept an offer they wouldn't have considered even two weeks ago. But leverage is more fickle than value. How much leverage could be recouped by the Sixers showing that they're willing to live through the awkwardness to maximize their return on a Simmons trade? How much leverage do the Sixers gain if something outside of their control happens to force another team into the Simmons sweepstakes, which then forces the rest of the interested suitors to step forward with more earnest offers?

Which makes this situation sort of fascinating. Could Morey call Simmons' bluff and see whether he would actually follow through on his threat to not report to camp? If Simmons does cave in and reports to camp, would Morey be willing to tolerate an exceptionally awkward situation with Simmons around the team if he thought it could buy him a few weeks -- or perhaps even months -- to maximize his trade value? If Morey does pull the trigger on a trade, how much leeway does he have to take back an offer full of draft picks and young players who may not help the Sixers in the short term but could be flipped for players who would help at the trade deadline in February?

Link: https://theathletic.com/2802291/2021/09/01/ben-simmons-trade-demand-everything-about-this-situation-is-weird-and-unprecedented-its-outcome-might-be-too/?source=user_shared_article

This is from Derek Bodner's article on The Athletic this morning. I think he's laid out the weirdness of it all quite well, but also the situation involving Philadelphia's leverage. Their position does not increase in strength from now to the start of the season. I think the bidders for Ben Simmons are simply waiting them out to see how much pressure the awkwardness of training camp creates, and then we'll see a deal done. That's how I see it going.

Camden wrote:

There's nothing that's likely to happen between now and the start of training camp that will provide a boost to Simmons' trade value. And Simmons being a distraction in training camp if he's still here, while annoying at the moment, may not be all that damaging to his value around the NBA. League executives are already well aware of Simmons' strengths and weaknesses, and the holdout isn't likely to decrease interest from the teams already intrigued by Simmons.

What could be impacted is the Sixers' leverage, as teams are now left with every incentive to hold back from making their best offer to see if the discomfort of the situation forces the Sixers to accept an offer they wouldn't have considered even two weeks ago. But leverage is more fickle than value. How much leverage could be recouped by the Sixers showing that they're willing to live through the awkwardness to maximize their return on a Simmons trade? How much leverage do the Sixers gain if something outside of their control happens to force another team into the Simmons sweepstakes, which then forces the rest of the interested suitors to step forward with more earnest offers?

Which makes this situation sort of fascinating. Could Morey call Simmons' bluff and see whether he would actually follow through on his threat to not report to camp? If Simmons does cave in and reports to camp, would Morey be willing to tolerate an exceptionally awkward situation with Simmons around the team if he thought it could buy him a few weeks -- or perhaps even months -- to maximize his trade value? If Morey does pull the trigger on a trade, how much leeway does he have to take back an offer full of draft picks and young players who may not help the Sixers in the short term but could be flipped for players who would help at the trade deadline in February?

Link: https://theathletic.com/2802291/2021/09/01/ben-simmons-trade-demand-everything-about-this-situation-is-weird-and-unprecedented-its-outcome-might-be-too/?source=user_shared_article

This is from Derek Bodner's article on The Athletic this morning. I think he's laid out the weirdness of it all quite well, but also the situation involving Philadelphia's leverage. Their position does not increase in strength from now to the start of the season. I think the bidders for Ben Simmons are simply waiting them out to see how much pressure the awkwardness of training camp creates, and then we'll see a deal done. That's how I see it going.

Cam, I would say their leverage decreases unless they can somehow get teams involved in a bidding war. If that happens it's really hard to say what kind of deal they can execute.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Cam, I would say their leverage decreases unless they can somehow get teams involved in a bidding war. If that happens it's really hard to say what kind of deal they can execute.

Right, and the extent of a bidding war is difficult to project, but we do know there are roughly five serious suitors for Ben Simmons -- Minnesota, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, and Golden State. There's likely another that we'll refer to as a mystery team. How much are any of those teams willing to offer given the circumstances Philadelphia finds themselves in? I'd argue that all of them have a limit as to what they'll include in a trade package.

- Minnesota: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D'Angelo Russell
- Sacramento: De'Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes
- San Antonio: Dejounte Murray or Derrick White
- Toronto: Pascal Siakam
- Golden State: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green -- and two of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody

These are the assets that the interested teams just will not offer, in my opinion. Outside of all of that, we're looking at some combination of role players, young players, and picks.

Toronto's arguably offered the most win-now package of the bunch and were shot down. How much higher are they willing to go? Does Simmons, Siakam and pieces make them a contender?

San Antonio would be left with Simmons and one of Murray and White plus rebuilding pieces. Are they ready to contend after a deal is made?

Golden State could offer a bevy of assets, but none of them are win-now assets and it appears they're more motivated to wait for other big fish to become available anyways. I tend to believe the reports that they don't want to pair Simmons with Draymond Green, for what it's worth.

That leaves Minnesota, Sacramento, and a mystery team as the teams that are most aggressive in their pursuit for Simmons. The first two could theoretically get into a bidding war, but both are likely to draw the line at their current lead guards. At that point, Philadelphia is just going to have to pick the pool of assets they find more attractive. There will be a limit that bidders just won't exceed in my view.

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Cam, I would say their leverage decreases unless they can somehow get teams involved in a bidding war. If that happens it's really hard to say what kind of deal they can execute.

Right, and the extent of a bidding war is difficult to project, but we do know there are roughly five serious suitors for Ben Simmons -- Minnesota, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, and Golden State. There's likely another that we'll refer to as a mystery team. How much are any of those teams willing to offer given the circumstances Philadelphia finds themselves in? I'd argue that all of them have a limit as to what they'll include in a trade package.

- Minnesota: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D'Angelo Russell
- Sacramento: De'Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes
- San Antonio: Dejounte Murray or Derrick White
- Toronto: Pascal Siakam
- Golden State: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green -- and two of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody

These are the assets that the interested teams just will not offer, in my opinion. Outside of all of that, we're looking at some combination of role players, young players, and picks.

Toronto's arguably offered the most win-now package of the bunch and were shot down. How much higher are they willing to go? Does Simmons, Siakam and pieces make them a contender?

San Antonio would be left with Simmons and one of Murray and White plus rebuilding pieces. Are they ready to contend after a deal is made?

Golden State could offer a bevy of assets, but none of them are win-now assets and it appears they're more motivated to wait for other big fish to become available anyways. I tend to believe the reports that they don't want to pair Simmons with Draymond Green, for what it's worth.

That leaves Minnesota, Sacramento, and a mystery team as the teams that are most aggressive in their pursuit for Simmons. The first two could theoretically get into a bidding war, but both are likely to draw the line at their current lead guards. At that point, Philadelphia is just going to have to pick the pool of assets they find more attractive. There will be a limit that bidders just won't exceed in my view.

Cam - I agree with Cool's point about a possible bidding war as the wild card that can drive up Simmons otherwise depressed market value. I think your analysis of the potential suitors and their trade perimeters is solid. Like you, I see this coming down to a contest between Sacramento and Minnesota with a potential mystery team emerging. However, I could also see Philly pivoting back to the Toronto deal centered around VanVleet and Anunoby. I think that was the deal to take before Morey overplayed his hand. The question is whether the Raptors would still be willing to make that deal and whether Toronto would be willing to up the ante slightly. Perhaps Toronto could reduce the protection on the 1st-round pick they purportedly offered and/or include a one or two 2nd-round picks. I do think Sacramento will raise the ante to include Hield instead of Barnes and add Bagley to the package.

At the end of the day, I still believe Philly will opt for the deal that they believe will help them the most this upcoming season. Which of the following player packages would do the most to help the Sixers win this coming season?

1. Beasley + Beverley or Prince + McDaniels
2. Haliburton + Hield + Bagley
3. VanVleet + Anunoby

From a Sixers's win-now standpoint, I'd rank them best to worst as (1) VanVleet/Anunoby; (2) Haliburton/Hield/Bagley; and (3) Beasley/Beverley/McDaniels. From an overall value standpoint, the Wolves could theoretically offer the best package by simply adding more future picks with less protection and maybe by also including Naz. But right now, I think it's more likely that Simmons ends up in Sacramento or Toronto than in Minnesota. Nevertheless, I won't be surprised if he ends up in Minnesota, depending on how much Morey is willing to wait a year and bank on using future picks to acquire Beal or Lillard. And if the Wolves ultimately offer DLO with McDaniels and picks, then I have little doubt that Simmons will end up here.

My prognostication is based on highly theoretical, largely uninformed analysis and should not be relied upon for anything other than fodder for dialogue and disagreement. :)