Kat doubtful on Wed

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I think this team just sucks organically despite some intriguing young talent and former All-Stars, but I also don't think the organization has shown a sense of urgency in actively trying to win games. So, I'm on the fence in terms of whether or not the tank is on. If it is, then I can only hope that the Wolves get incredibly lucky and Cade Cunningham is our draft selection next summer even if it means having to trade up for him. Either way this franchise needs an overhaul in leadership sooner rather than later.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I think this team just sucks organically despite some intriguing young talent and former All-Stars, but I also don't think the organization has shown a sense of urgency in actively trying to win games. So, I'm on the fence in terms of whether or not the tank is on. If it is, then I can only hope that the Wolves get incredibly lucky and Cade Cunningham is our draft selection next summer even if it means having to trade up for him. Either way this franchise needs an overhaul in leadership sooner rather than later.

Exactly. Until we have a legit star with real leadership qualities or at the very least a star who plays both sides of the ball, this team is going nowhere. DLO is the opposite of what we need. If KAT's defense improves, he could be a legit second banana on a contender, but time is quickly running out for us to build a team in which he could play that role and we still don't know if he'll actually turn out to be a good defender.

I wouldn't be surprised if the front office is starting to think this too, even though they made the DLO trade. Maybe they weren't even as excited about DLO as they made it sound in the first place. Wiggins' contract was terrible, and KAT reportedly wanted DLO. Some of us thought it was a mistake at the time, but I could see a front office making that trade, spinning it as best they could, then slowly realizing it wasn't going to work out. They haven't played together much, and I'm sure Rosas has been hoping it would work out, so maybe they've been slow to come to this realization.

Or maybe they're just clueless.

Either way, given what a weak foundation DLO and KAT appear to be and given how far behind the 8 ball we are already the season despite the play-in possibilities, I can see why tanking in this case is appealing even though there's a good chance it could backfire horribly (ie--we gift the Warriors the 4th or 5th pick, further poison our already horrific reputation, embed the losing culture of this organization even deeper, and push KAT toward asking for a trade and reduce his value further).

These are desperate circumstances. When it comes to tanking, we're very likely damned if we do, damned if we don't.

But the question "should we tank?" isn't the same as "are we tanking?" We can debate the first question (I'd lean no, but I'm ambivalent because I think both options look bleak), but as to the second, we can only speculate.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Lip, what you say is true about the impact of folks with Covid, HOWEVER, Abe posted in another thread other players that have had it and how long they have been out. KAT by far is being held out the longest. Judging by how he's looked on the sidelines these past couple of games and the fact he's been back practicing, I just don't believe he has long-lasting effects. Why can't they play him on a minutes restriction and see how things go?

I truly believe it's a soft tank strategy.

You think it's intended to ensure they end up with one of the worst three records to have the best, but still unlikely, chance of keeping their pick? I don't buy it. That would mean Rosas doesn't believe the roster he's assembled, with KAT and DLO, et al, can finish in the top 10 and qualify for the play-in tournament. It would be tantamount to acknowledging to Glen that he's failed. As for KAT's health, we have no way of knowing whether he's physically ready to play without seeing and understanding the CAT scans of his lungs and heart that I'm sure they've done.

Lip, I'm with you on this one. There are only 30 people in the world who run personnel for an NBA franchise. Even the worst of the worst have done a lot of things right to get to where they are. They've achieved a high level of success along the way I don't believe they're programmed to be so stupid as to waste a year of everyone in the organizations' career for a small chance at a 19 year old kid. If that's what Rosas is about, he's twice as bad as we thought.

The pick is secondary.

Job preservation. Job preservation. Job preservation.

His work can't be described as a failure until it's proven that the DLO and Towns pairing doesn't work. So... forcing them together this season isn't really worth it, considering the Wolves are literally the worst team in the league 1/3 of the way through the season. The season is lost.

Oh, we'll see them play together. But not quite enough where Rosas and Co. can't keep the excuses flowing. Unlike in Philadelphia where they tried to lose during The Process... Rosas put the Wolves in this position. And unlike in Philly where it took only 4 years... we're on year (xx) of soft tanks, hard tanks, and just shitty basketball.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think this team just sucks organically despite some intriguing young talent and former All-Stars, but I also don't think the organization has shown a sense of urgency in actively trying to win games. So, I'm on the fence in terms of whether or not the tank is on. If it is, then I can only hope that the Wolves get incredibly lucky and Cade Cunningham is our draft selection next summer even if it means having to trade up for him. Either way this franchise needs an overhaul in leadership sooner rather than later.

Rosas is an analytical darling, right?

40% is better than 25%. 20% or whatever the odds would be if the Wolves win a few more games in an otherwise lost season.

[Wolvesfan21]

Doubtful again? It certainly seems like the tank is on. I mean he can't come out and play 20 minutes?

[AbeVigodaLive]

Doubtful again? It certainly seems like the tank is on. I mean he can't come out and play 20 minutes?

One other part of this...

Playing only 20 minutes would affect Towns stats. And let's not pretend that these guys don't care about that stuff. It's well documented...

[Wolvesfan21]

Doubtful again? It certainly seems like the tank is on. I mean he can't come out and play 20 minutes?

One other part of this...

Playing only 20 minutes would affect Towns stats. And let's not pretend that these guys don't care about that stuff. It's well documented...

I guess, but one or two games to work your way back? Play 20, then 25, etc...

The other thought it hold him out as long as you can to maybe lose some more.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Q, don't forget KAT also had the wrist ailment that clearly wasn't healed at the time he contracted Covid. Not sure if that could still be at play here. What do you think the goal of the soft tank strategy would be? I just can't see it.

The goal is they want more talent/trade assets and a 40% shot at it is better than nothing.

As I've said for years, I hate tanking and believe it breeds a losing culture. The Timberwolves themselves are the best proof against a tanking strategy, as where has it gotten them in the multiple times they've done it?

So what you're saying is you wouldn't do it, but believe that is what is happening. Maybe I'm naive, and you know I have little respect for Rosas, but I can't believe that anyone worth his salt would throw away a season for less than a 50% chance at a high draft pick. And then of course the chances of you actually hitting on that draft pick is about 30%. My statistics education tells me that's .4 x .3 = a 12% chance of a favorable outcome. Rosas would either have to be extremely secure in his position, or figure it's his only shot at success.

If Kat and Dlo are back and the Wolves are still losing games there would be a really high probability of Rosas and Saunders getting fired at the end of the year.

I legit believe Rosas is doing what he is doing to keep his job. No Kat, no firing this year. Also increases the probability of getting a top 3 pick with more losing. This guy is all about asset management and any way he can keep an asset he will try and do it.

I legit believe they are soft taking

Exactly. I didn't mention it originally, but Kek and Abe especially have been saying this for weeks now and reminded us again in this thread. It's not just about the 40% odds at a high draft pick but also job preservation.

Not playing KAT is almost like an immunization (dare I say?) against getting fired. He can kick the can to next season and give himself another shot (there I go again!) at shuffling the roster around KAT this offseason.

[FNG]

Interesting discussion, guys, and I guess the only thing we all know is that we don't know what is really going on. I think the three possible scenarios have been laid out here, and to support one or another of them, we have to surmise what kind of conversations are going on behind the scenes. Let me give it a shot:

The Tank hypothesis: Rosas: Ryan, we're not going anywhere this year, and a bottom three finish gives us a 40% chance of getting a top 3 pick in a stacked draft. Let's keep KAT out for awhile, because you and I know we can't win without him.
Ryan: I don't know...I really want to win, and I really want to see what this team can do with KAT out there. Plus I'm getting ripped in the media as losses pile up. I'm worried about getting fired.
Rosas: I'm not going to fire you. Keeping KAT out is your best chance of getting another piece so you can keep your job. Don't play him.
Ryan: OK, you're the boss. But KAT wants to play, and I don't know how we're going to convince him to keep his mouth shut about our scheme.

The job preservation hypothesis: Rosas: Ryan, we're both getting ripped in the media, and I'm concerned Glen is going to fire us both. But I think we have a chance to keep our jobs for awhile as long as KAT stays out. I think Glen will give us a chance, because he wants to see if a KAT/DLO pairing can win.
Ryan: You may be right. But I think we can win with KAT out there, and he really wants to get back on the court:
Rosas: Nope, you can't play him. We need to keep our jobs.
Ryan: OK. you're the boss. But KAT wants to play, and I don't know how we're going to convince him to keep his mouth shut about our scheme.

The non-conspiracy hypothesis:
Ryan: KAT, you've cleared the Covid protocol. We need you out there as soon as you're ready to go.
KAT: I know, coach. I really want to get out there, because I think we can win with my boy DLO and the other pieces. But my lungs feel like they're on fire after running down the court in practice a couple times. I don't think I'm ready. Plus DLO is hurt anyway, and my wrist still isn't 100%. It's better that we give it a few more days until we're both ready to go. Maybe next week,
Ryan: Ok, it's your call. I'm never going to make a guy play who says he can't. But just know we need you back as soon as possible.

Any one of these is possible, but I think it's the third option...KAT is calling the shots, and even though he wants to get out there, he can tell he just isn't ready. Lip is right about how devastating this virus is for some people (and granted, not for others). I know people who still don't feel anywhere close to 100% weeks after being cleared of Covid. And they're working desk jobs, not anywhere near as taxing as playing basketball against the best players in the league. Yeah, some players have come back quickly after their bout with Covid, but I suspect KAT may have been stricken with a tougher case. I think he's a gamer and really wants to play, so I can't imagine he would ever agree to comply with a Rosas/Saunders scheme if he truly was ready to play. Just doesn't seem realistic to me. I think he's still hurting.

[Wolvesfan21]

FNG you're right that he could certainly not be 100%, I doubt he is. His wrist and body I am sure below 90% as he was sick (how bad?) but we know the wrist isn't 100% strong either. He was sick so that might not have helped at all recovery on the wrist and I have no doubt the strength is not there.

The third scenario.

Rosas and Ryan- "Kat we want you back but ONLY when you are 100%. This season we are not in contention for an NBA Championship and that is our ultimate goal. When you are 100% we will get you in there. This is our longterm goal We want your wrist healthy and you yourself for the long haul"

KAT- "Yes that makes sense. When I'm fully healthy I will be back."