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Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:59 am
by Lipoli390
monsterpile wrote:lipoli390 wrote:Monster -- Thanks for the great breakdown. I've watched a lot of video highlights of Patton from college and more recently the G-League. I've also read everything I could find on him since we drafted him.
Based one what I've seen and read, 4 positives stand out: (1) great hands, (2) accurate, controlled shot around the basket as evidenced by his tremendous 67.6% FG shooting in college, (3) his straight line speed and effort running the floor, and (4) his IQ. He seems to have good ball skills for a big man, perhaps stemming from his earlier years as a guard before his growth spurt, but I haven't seen enough to fully gauge.
However, I don't see anything about him that suggests he'll be a good, much less great, defender or a really good all-around big man in the NBA. Note that players's D-League (now G-League) stats tend to be better than their college stats. So the best objective predictor of Patton's potential are his college stats. Other than his FG%, there's nothing very impressive in those stats for a big man. He averaged 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 25.3 minutes. That's 9.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 40 minutes. Those aren't bad stats, but they're not the sort of stats that project anything close to an elite NBA big man, especially as a rebounder or rim protector. And his measurements don't stand out either with a 9'3.5" overhead reach and a 7'3" wingspan. Compare Patton's numbers to the following from their college careers:
Hassan Whiteside:
26 minutes, 8.9 rebounds, 5.4 blocks, 9'6 overhead reach, 7'7 wingspan
Gorgui Dieng: 9'3.5" overhead reach. 7'3.5" wingspan
FR: 15.5 Minutes, 4.4R, 1.9 blocks, 61.8% FG. Per 40 min: 11.4 rebounds, 5.0 blocks
SO: 32.8 Min., 9.1R, 3.2 blocks, 1.2 steals. Per 40 min: 11.1 rebounds, 3.9 blocks
JR: 31.1 Min., 9.4R, 3.2 blocks, 1.3 steals. Per 40 min: 12.1 rebounds, 3.2 blocks
Rudy Gobert played in Europe, so he doesn't have comparable college stats. But his measurements are off the charts wiht a 9'7" overhead reach and 7'8 wingspan.
John Collins averaged 11 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 40 minutes his freshman year. He then averaged 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 26 minutes his sophamore season. He also shots 62.2% from the field his sophomore season.
In general, how you rebound and block shots in college is how you rebound and block shots in the NBA -- only your numbers tend to go down a bit in the NBA. I'm sure there are exceptions, but not many. Obviously as a Wolves fan I really want Patton to be good. I'd rather be wrong about him because that means good things for the Wolves. But objective data we have so far tells me he won't be as good as Gorgui. There's certainly nothing in his college stats or length that suggests he'll be a defensive, rim-protecting center in the mold of a Hassan Whiteside or Rudy Gobert.
Lip you have posted basically this same stuff multiple times over the last few months. We get your take. Why not spend some time and actually watch a game that he plays in? The Iowa Wolves games are easily accessible on Facebook. You would get to see your guy (I'm on the bandwagon now too) Amile Jefferson also. It's a win win. :)
I just thought you were getting folks too hyped up about Patton with your G-League observations. So I thought another dose of perspective was in order. :). I'm definitely looking forward to watching some full Iowa Wolves games. It has to be more enjoyable than watching our Minnesota Wolves lose at home to the Phoenix Suns without their best player. :).
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:10 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
I watched all of Patton's minutes from last night's Iowa win. Not impressed. You can definitely see why he had some of the lackluster rebounding numbers Lip cites above. He rarely rebounds out of his area or fights hard for position while the shot goes up. He also seems to have a little bit of the Wiggins disease in that he seems to be working in 3rd gear most of the time and on only very rare occasions does he give 100%.
He does have a good feel offensively in terms of finding space and making some nice passes, but I don't think he is anywhere close to being an NBA-caliber Center on the defensive side of the ball. Alas, the G-League is probably the best place for him the rest of this season.
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:24 am
by kekgeek
Q12543 wrote:I watched all of Patton's minutes from last night's Iowa win. Not impressed. You can definitely see why he had some of the lackluster rebounding numbers Lip cites above. He rarely rebounds out of his area or fights hard for position while the shot goes up. He also seems to have a little bit of the Wiggins disease in that he seems to be working in 3rd gear most of the time and on only very rare occasions does he give 100%.
He does have a good feel offensively in terms of finding space and making some nice passes, but I don't think he is anywhere close to being an NBA-caliber Center on the defensive side of the ball. Alas, the G-League is probably the best place for him the rest of this season.
Is this your 1st game guy watched him play in the G league. I only ask because it was his 1st bad stat line game.
Also got to remember he has to be out of shape, hasn't played since June, why everyone else has been in the groove for months he is just getting back.
I'm with you though want him in the G league all year
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:48 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
kekgeek1 wrote:Q12543 wrote:I watched all of Patton's minutes from last night's Iowa win. Not impressed. You can definitely see why he had some of the lackluster rebounding numbers Lip cites above. He rarely rebounds out of his area or fights hard for position while the shot goes up. He also seems to have a little bit of the Wiggins disease in that he seems to be working in 3rd gear most of the time and on only very rare occasions does he give 100%.
He does have a good feel offensively in terms of finding space and making some nice passes, but I don't think he is anywhere close to being an NBA-caliber Center on the defensive side of the ball. Alas, the G-League is probably the best place for him the rest of this season.
Is this your 1st game guy watched him play in the G league. I only ask because it was his 1st bad stat line game.
Also got to remember he has to be out of shape, hasn't played since June, why everyone else has been in the groove for months he is just getting back.
I'm with you though want him in the G league all year
No, this is my second time watching him. This was his 4th or 5th game I think, so I would hope the rust is starting to get knocked off. They are still limiting him to about 16 minutes per game, usually played in three or four different stints, so he is out there for literally single digit stretches in terms of minutes with plenty of breaks.
I have no clue what kind of player he'll be in three or four years. One thing you can tell though is that he is not going to be a high-motor, rebounding monster. I'm OK with that if he does a bunch of other stuff well.
One thing I noticed about him defensively is that he does the classic Gorgui Dieng "bait and block" strategy, whereby he opens up his hips and baits a guard to take the opening for a layup, then proceeds to swat it away. It's impressive when it works, which is quite often in the G-League. That ain't happening in the NBA...much better to move your feet, stay square to the ball handler, and wall up.
We don't see Gorgui doing this much anymore. Instead, he squares up and tries to take a charge. Every. Single. Time. And usually he gets called for a blocking foul instead!
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:42 pm
by Monster
Patton and Brown up. I was wondering when Brown would be up here to make some of his 45 big league money.
https://twitter.com/jerryzgoda/status/944642290743693312
"Wolves will recall Justin Patton & Anthony Brown after @iawolves game tonight & have them with team next 2-3 games before they return when their G League sked resumes Friday"
The Suns waived Mike James after he was passed by Canaan who was signed for the rest of the year on the depth chart. Man he looked good for a few games.
Also I wonder if there would be any value to send Bazz down to the g-league for a game or 2 just to get him some run and maybe some confidence or whatever. Based on where we are right now with him how can it hurt? Lol
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:37 am
by Monster
I just finished watching the Iowa Wolves last game against the 87ers.
Patton was not good maybe not quite as bad as his stat line looked but we will move on.
The starters with Millsap and Trimble were terrible especially on offense going one on one and the defense and energy was relatively poor. Trimble has talent and can score but I have no interest in seeing him get a deal for the wolves to help out at PG as a guy that isn't exactly a PG that helps get things moving. the bench came in and started really rolling...except Patton. lol
Jefferson is just good. He had a couple plays where he went coast to coast. There are plenty of talented g-league bigs but it feels more and more like this guy can actually play.
Waspun and Bryson continue to look better. They really play D and they share the ball. Bryson is so quick laterally and is explosive athletically. He had 2 more blocks and a crazy dunk in transition for an and 1. He has a nice stroke. It feels like he can always contest any shot he is active and always in a stance. IF you are looking for a guy to just come in and be solid I wonder if he is value at the next level is higher than Anthony Brown.
Christian Wood I kept my eye on and he put up the stats I was expecting. He is really long and really has a nice skillset can do a bit of everything. I came away thinking he could be a nice player for a team although I'm not sure he has that super upside.
Emeka Okafor started this game and put up 10-10 in 20 minutes. I don't know if he can help a team at the NBA level too much becasue of the way the league is going. If the league still used centers more maybe. he looks healthy and solid. He was never a guy that really flashed a ton anyway.
Devin Robinson was on this team from the Wizards and he put up a nice line.
It was a nice win for the Wolves and after a horrible start they have been playing well lately and up to 9-9 for the season. We want to see them develop some young players but its also nice if you see them play winning basketball because that probably means you identified the right talent and putting it all together. I'll be interested to see how the next few games go. They still don't take many 3's even though they have some 3 point shooters at any position but it looks like get plenty of efficient shots especially the last 9 games.
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:47 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Yeah, I watched the first half and Patton's stint was awful. He just looked sloppy and lazy, often reaching for a steal instead of using his feet and squaring up to guys coming at him. I hate to say this, but the more I watch him, the less I like him. He looked awful.
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:59 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Monster, I like Jefferson's activity level, but he isn't much of a defensive presence. Still, as an energy 4 off the bench, there might be some potential.
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:20 pm
by Monster
Q12543 wrote:Yeah, I watched the first half and Patton's stint was awful. He just looked sloppy and lazy, often reaching for a steal instead of using his feet and squaring up to guys coming at him. I hate to say this, but the more I watch him, the less I like him. He looked awful.
He was not good in this one Q and was pretty disappointing. I had to wonder if he was sick or was coming off being with the NBA squad or something.
I can't remember when he tried them but he had some passes that went arwy and if they would have been on target people would have been buzzing about that. Is he completely careless or is something there? Idk only time will tell.
As I was watching the game I switched the comments on Facebook to real time so I could see some comments. I felt like jaded fan in comparison to some of those comments. Lol Some of them wanted Patton on with the NBA team, Trimble to get a contract and Brown to play over MGH as a 3 and D guy. I think some people forget Patton only played 1 year of college and was considered raw coming into this draft. He wasn't supposed to be drafted a year ago just a talented division 1 kid coming off being redshirted. Then he injures his foot and takes a few months to get back. He likely doesn't need to sit around watching basketball games he needs to play in them. Yes they should bring him up here and there to practice and experience the NBA game even from the bench but he needs to play some basketball. If he progresses there will be plenty of time to develop him at the NBA level after this year. If they really need another big to play minutes there are plenty of other options including Amile Jefferson.
It's worth mentioning here that 10 day contracts are pretty good money with a player with no NBA experience starting at over $47,000 for that time. It looks like January 5 is when those contracts can be signed. If you are a player with a couple years of experience in the league you can make around $200k from less than a month's work with 2 10 day contracts and be available to sign more or pick a team you want to sign for the rest of the year.
Re: Justin Patton with another great game
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:33 pm
by Monster
Finishing up watching this game. Julian stone (hit 4 threes) got tossed with a couple minutes left i'm Not sure why but the game was basically over anyway.
Patton had a plenty solid game but probably wasn't as impressive as his stat line. He had a couple pretty nice post moves but he left them just short. He played with plenty of energy. He had a couple rebounds he couldn't pull in that was not a positive.
Amile did his thing
Waspun didn't shoot well but had 4 steals and in general played a good game.
Bryson was the only guy that was slowing down Bacon at all early. For most of the first half anyone else that was on Bacon he seemed to score. In the 2nd half Brown actually started playing some pretty good D on him. Facebook commenteders were roasting Bacon because he was taking all those shots.
I looked up Perry Jones measurements from when he was drafted 6'10.25" without shoes. The guy has center length and some perimeter skills. They don't have the same skill sets exactly but he reminds me of Belly in that at his size he has an intruiging/theoretical possibility as a player. He is shooting the ball well and looks healthy. Like Belly early in his career he does some good and then head scratcher things sometimes within seconds. He is 26 and has had injuries in his career. I'm not suggesting he is an NBA player because he has a ways to go but that kind of length with his skills he could still make it back as a decent rotation player especially in this new NBA.
Marquise Moore has a solid showing coming off the bench filling in for minutes Millsap didn't play.
Shawn Williams has been really stroking it from 3 after REALLY struggling early on. He seems to be a nice calming influence coming off the bench who again had positive plus minus numbers and gave the team a lift when the starters were not doing well as a whole. Trimble really was terrible early but redeemed himself somewhat as the game went on.
Where are they now?
Patton's former teammate at Creighton Cole Huff his a 3 near the end of this game in basically garbage time.
Charles Cook a 2-way player for the Pels is with the NBA team right now and has played very few minutes. He had been solid in the G-league.
Marcus Paige who played for the Wolves in the summer league had some moments in the 2nd half but was far from impressive. He gets up 7 threes a game though at least. Trimble for his faults looks like a more intruiging player and Paige is a on a 2-way deal.