Minnesota Sports Forum

BizarroJerry wrote:You guys take that Daryl Morey analytics crap out of here, there's no room for that here.

Signed,
Old people

Lloyd, you clearly are not familiar with the stat that 68.543 % of all serious NBA fans like this analytic crap.

longstrangetrip wrote:

BizarroJerry wrote:You guys take that Daryl Morey analytics crap out of here, there's no room for that here.

Signed,
Old people

Lloyd, you clearly are not familiar with the stat that 68.543 % of all serious NBA fans like this analytic crap.

Somewhere in Arizona, Billy Beane is nodding in approval.

Nice write-up LST. I wholeheartedly agree.

I consider Kevin McHale kind of an old-school guy. Yet if you look at the offense they run in Houston, it is to the extreme in terms of discouraging 2 point jumpers. They try to avoid those shots at all costs. Now I'm not sure I totally agree with how extreme they are with this philosophy. Some of you have read my rants about how 50% of James Harden's game relies on drawing fouls. For some reason, I feel like this cheapens the NBA fan viewing experience. It's also a cop-out because it puts the game in the ref's hands as opposed to the players. Guys like Larry Bird would crush an opponents' hopes in the final minute with fadeaway J's and tough runners in the lane. James Harden drives to the hoop and desperately hopes to draw a foul, nevermind the part about making an actual basket. But I digress.....

My point is that here is old school McHale using advanced analytics to coach his team. Now here is my question: Would he even think of doing this without Daryl Morey in the front office? My guess is no. Those two balance each other out. One is an old school basketball guy; the other is a new school analytics guy. Perhaps McHale has taken things to an extreme, but he wouldn't be doing it at all without Morey insisting upon it and supplying him with hordes of data to support his view.

The problem in Minnesota is that Flip has no check and balance. Flip's boss is himself. And Taylor is so clueless about stuff on the basketball front (unlike, say, a Mark Cuban type of owner) that he doesn't even know the right questions to ask.

Q12543 wrote:Nice write-up LST. I wholeheartedly agree.

I consider Kevin McHale kind of an old-school guy. Yet if you look at the offense they run in Houston, it is to the extreme in terms of discouraging 2 point jumpers. They try to avoid those shots at all costs. Now I'm not sure I totally agree with how extreme they are with this philosophy. Some of you have read my rants about how 50% of James Harden's game relies on drawing fouls. For some reason, I feel like this cheapens the NBA fan viewing experience. It's also a cop-out because it puts the game in the ref's hands as opposed to the players. Guys like Larry Bird would crush an opponents' hopes in the final minute with fadeaway J's and tough runners in the lane. James Harden drives to the hoop and desperately hopes to draw a foul, nevermind the part about making an actual basket. But I digress.....

My point is that here is old school McHale using advanced analytics to coach his team. Now here is my question: Would he even think of doing this without Daryl Morey in the front office? My guess is no. Those two balance each other out. One is an old school basketball guy; the other is a new school analytics guy. Perhaps McHale has taken things to an extreme, but he wouldn't be doing it at all without Morey insisting upon it and supplying him with hordes of data to support his view.

The problem in Minnesota is that Flip has no check and balance. Flip's boss is himself. And Taylor is so clueless about stuff on the basketball front (unlike, say, a Mark Cuban type of owner) that he doesn't even know the right questions to ask.

I've mentioned the unique McHale/Morey dynamic in Houston before. I think that's one of the reasons it may actually work? Unlike Hollins in Memphis, there doesn't appear to be as large of a wedge in-between management and coaching philosophies in Houston.

Very true Abe, you have mentioned the McHale/Morey dichotomy. It's good to see McHale open minded to new ways of thinking. That wasn't necessarily his MO when he was running the front office in Minnesota.

Q12543 wrote:Very true Abe, you have mentioned the McHale/Morey dichotomy. It's good to see McHale open minded to new ways of thinking. That wasn't necessarily his MO when he was running the front office in Minnesota.

He might be more worried about Morey jettisoning him than Taylor's country club approach...

Very good comments from Khans, Long and Q about problems with Flip's offense.

It's so frustrating to see how ex-Wolves players are tearing their opponents in their new teams after being so inefficient in offense with Wolves.

Here are examples from this year:

Corey Brewer with Wolves: eFG% .436 TS% .484
Corey Brewer with Rockets: eFG% .492 TS% .530

Mo Williams with Wolves: eFG% .469 TS% .511
Mo Williams with Hornets: eFG% .544 TS% .592

Thaddeus Young with Wolves: eFG% .466 TS% .491
Thaddeus Young with Nets: eFG% .601 TS% .614

I realize that both Mo and Thad have been insanely hot with 3-point shooting in their new teams and their percentages will come back to closer their career averages as sample size will increase. But even if you use their average percentages from this year and just shot distribution from their new teams, you will have much effective offense. Mo would have still eFG% .495 and TS% .546 and Thad would have eFG% .487 and TS% .509. You need to also remember that neither Brooklyn or Charlotte have really good offenses but still ex-Wolves players have better chance to flourish in their new teams than they had with Wolves.

It is absurd that Wolves Ortg has been so good with Rubio (105.9 in games that Rubio has played compared to 96.6 without Rubio) when you consider how ineffective Flip's offense is compared to modern offenses.

Good stuff Mikkeman.

An additional common denominator with these three is volume of three point attempts. Like we have discussed on numerous occasions, you can be a pretty inefficient 3-point shooter and it still ends up being a better shot than, say, a pull up 20-footer or 15-foot turnaround jumper. Contested 2's or 2's off the dribble are less efficient than knocking down just 30% of your 3-point shots.

Williams, Thad, and Brewer all have a green light to shoot 3's. It's funny how when you have that freedom, not only do you take more shots, you might actually make more of them too!

I'd like to see some stats on the number of contested shots we take. Are we actually getting more uncontested shots in Flip's offense, and where? And what percentage of our uncontested shots go in versus contested shots? If we're going to try to figure out which shots are the best to take, we should take that into consideration to some degree, right?

Clearly though, we need to take more 3s and the offense needs to be tweaked to encourage this. The question is how. I'm no coach, but roughly speaking, if Flip adjusted his plays a bit and encouraged Martin, Neal, Wiggins, and Bazz to stay on the 3 point line a bit more, the responsibility will be Rubio's to get them the ball there, and then for bigs like Pek, Payne, and Dieng to kick it back out to them well. For all his brilliance, Rubio has never really struck me as a great passer out to the three point line once the defense has collapsed on him (if he can get penetration). I'm thinking of how Nash and Parker really mastered this. Rubio always seems to be looking to get the ball to the guy closest to the basket, which is a good thing in general, but if we're going for more three pointers and setting up shooters more, that's part of his game he could work on a bit. And I think Dieng and Payne look like they can pass a bit, so maybe running the offense a bit more through them out of the high post?

Coaches, what say you?

SameOldNudityDrew wrote:I'd like to see some stats on the number of contested shots we take. Are we actually getting more uncontested shots in Flip's offense, and where? And what percentage of our uncontested shots go in versus contested shots? If we're going to try to figure out which shots are the best to take, we should take that into consideration to some degree, right?

Clearly though, we need to take more 3s and the offense needs to be tweaked to encourage this. The question is how. I'm no coach, but roughly speaking, if Flip adjusted his plays a bit and encouraged Martin, Neal, Wiggins, and Bazz to stay on the 3 point line a bit more, the responsibility will be Rubio's to get them the ball there, and then for bigs like Pek, Payne, and Dieng to kick it back out to them well. For all his brilliance, Rubio has never really struck me as a great passer out to the three point line once the defense has collapsed on him (if he can get penetration). I'm thinking of how Nash and Parker really mastered this. Rubio always seems to be looking to get the ball to the guy closest to the basket, which is a good thing in general, but if we're going for more three pointers and setting up shooters more, that's part of his game he could work on a bit. And I think Dieng and Payne look like they can pass a bit, so maybe running the offense a bit more through them out of the high post?

Coaches, what say you?

Rubio isn't really driving too much. Is that by design... or is he limited in driving... whether because of ankle, thoughts about ankle, or just dynamic athleticism?