Fuel For The Wiggins Skeptics

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm really thrown off by the author pigeonholing him as either a Durant superstar or a Carmello letdown. There's a lot better comparisons out there. I really like Paul George, who I think is somewhere in the middle between Melo/Durant. George was the best player on the Pacers team when they were battling the Heat every year in the conference finals. I can see Wiggins taking on a very similar role.

Paul George has always been my best case scenario comp for Wiggins. Here is a comparison of their second year numbers:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2012&p1=georgpa01&y2=2016&p2=wiggian01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

[Carlos Danger]

RPM is a data point, and like anything else, it's imperfect - you do get some occasional confounding results. That being said, directionally it tends to be correct. If you go back and look at the Top and Bottom 5 in RPM over the last couple of years, it generally passes the common sense test.

Why it has Wiggins so low defensively I don't understand, but there probably is at least a tiny bit of truth to it. You combine that with everything else we observe and know about Wiggins and it all comes out to average-ish when it comes to his defense. He's great at some things and not so great at others. Players tend to get better as they age, so I'm not too worried about it.

We're back down to 26th out of 30 teams with regard to points given up per game - so I wouldn't expect too many of our guys to rate out as top defenders as of this moment. It is what it is. Like you, I'm not too concerned with it. My eyes tell me Wiggins is a good defender, but we certainly need to tighten things up as a team.

[AbeVigodaLive]

RPM is a data point, and like anything else, it's imperfect - you do get some occasional confounding results. That being said, directionally it tends to be correct. If you go back and look at the Top and Bottom 5 in RPM over the last couple of years, it generally passes the common sense test.

Why it has Wiggins so low defensively I don't understand, but there probably is at least a tiny bit of truth to it. You combine that with everything else we observe and know about Wiggins and it all comes out to average-ish when it comes to his defense. He's great at some things and not so great at others. Players tend to get better as they age, so I'm not too worried about it.

We're back down to 26th out of 30 teams with regard to points given up per game - so I wouldn't expect too many of our guys to rate out as top defenders as of this moment. It is what it is. Like you, I'm not too concerned with it. My eyes tell me Wiggins is a good defender, but we certainly need to tighten things up as a team.

The team isn't quite as bad in its defensive rating, which I think considers pace. They're down to 19th in Defensive Rating, which while not as bad as last year is still mediocre.

Considering how good or even elite so many Wolves players are defensively, however, (Rubio, Towns, Wiggins, Prince, Garnett, et al) it seems a tad low. I'd expect more.

Meh. It's probably all Martin's fault. (And some of Mitchell's)

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

RPM is a data point, and like anything else, it's imperfect - you do get some occasional confounding results. That being said, directionally it tends to be correct. If you go back and look at the Top and Bottom 5 in RPM over the last couple of years, it generally passes the common sense test.

Why it has Wiggins so low defensively I don't understand, but there probably is at least a tiny bit of truth to it. You combine that with everything else we observe and know about Wiggins and it all comes out to average-ish when it comes to his defense. He's great at some things and not so great at others. Players tend to get better as they age, so I'm not too worried about it.

We're back down to 26th out of 30 teams with regard to points given up per game - so I wouldn't expect too many of our guys to rate out as top defenders as of this moment. It is what it is. Like you, I'm not too concerned with it. My eyes tell me Wiggins is a good defender, but we certainly need to tighten things up as a team.

The team isn't quite as bad in its defensive rating, which I think considers pace. They're down to 19th in Defensive Rating, which while not as bad as last year is still mediocre.

Considering how good or even elite so many Wolves players are defensively, however, (Rubio, Towns, Wiggins, Prince, Garnett, et al) it seems a tad low. I'd expect more.

Meh. It's probably all Martin's fault. (And some of Mitchell's)

Heh, when in doubt, blame Martin!

That first unit you mention is by far our best 5-man squad defensively (84.6 Drtg). Replace Prince with Martin and it still isn't that bad (101.7). But once you have Bjelica AND Martin out there with the other three, disaster ensues (122)

Bjelly and Martin also independently show up in other lineups where they are either OK defensively or horrible. I think why the KAT-Bjelly-Wiggins-Martin-Rubio unit fares so poorly is that they are typically playing the other team's full starting unit (Bjelly subs for KG really early in quarters). KAT-Rubio-Wiggins aren't good enough defensively to cover up for both Bjelly and Martin.

Still....some of these more recent second half meltdowns defensively can be blamed on all involved, no matter who is out there. But that original starting unit Sam trotted out onto the floor was borderline lockdown defense.

[worldK]

Good article and a balanced take on wiggins.

Wiggins has already surprised most people with his scoring. i remember guys here saying he will fill the corey brewer role his first year or has him as shawn marion like. Even coming into this season, posters here were skeptical if he can average as much as he did his rookie year. Some even peg martin as our top wing scorer this season. Wiggins scoring and his efficiency will only get better.

Spot on on his defense as well. He is very good one on one but he wont staff the stat sheet. His anticipation is not there yet. Im not a big stats guy but I suspect that his defense rating has been low because we are 9-13. Were losing more games than we've won and wiggins has played the most minutes so far so that along with his poor stats outside of scoring has to have an effect right?

The 1 area wig needs to really work on is his strength. I think that will help out his bad rebounding. He seems to always be in a position for the board under the basket but gets push off easily and cant hold ground and pull out the tough rebounds. His hands aren't the best as well. If he can improve his body and strength that can at least get him to average in rebounding. The anticipation will come with more experience and his shooting will improve as well.

[Shumway]

This thread is an absolute endorsement of why this board is great. Some really great insightful information, a range of opinions being put forward really well and respectfully, and a great bit of banter in amongst it all.

As a Timberwolves fan 16,000 kms from Minnesota, this analysis is absolute gold. Keep it up guys.

For what it's worth, I'm definitely a natural optimist (still only about 25% Pork Chop on Rubio, we probably need a thread with a Wiggins expectations scale as well), so I still suspect that Wiggins has enough tools to continue to develop into Superstar level. Athletic ability the obvious one, but it appears to me that is also a very quiet but burning desire and work ethic in there as well. The major question mark coming into the NBA was whether his demeanour was aggressive enough. Despite the way he carries himself, his laid back physical appearance and expressions (and I think it's way too easy to place way too much weight on his casual expressions) have not translated to a lack of aggression with the ball in his hands. His offensive rebounding numbers are pretty good, so perhaps it's just a focus thing for defensive rebounding (focus rather than concentration). Defensively he's probably still 'limited' rather than well rounded in what he does. At this point, it appears he's almost a bit myopic and locks down his man, but has not learned when to leave and help, when to gamble etc.

[Coolbreeze44]

Here is how I would rank Andrew's weaknesses:

1) Stamina. I've written about this before but I just don't think he has his grown man lungs yet. He seems to get winded very easily. You can see it on most of the closeups they show of him. I think this one flaw affects his anticipation, rebounding, free throw shooting, and getting easy baskets. I'd find some way to build stamina in him before I do anything else.

2) Hands. He really struggles to catch the ball in traffic, and you can forget about him coming up with a loose ball on the floor. Whereas stamina can be developed, I don't think that bad hands is necessarily something that will improve. This might be his foremost limiting factor over time.

3) Overall strength. I agree with World that this needs a lot of work. But for most players this is just a matter of maturing, and I don't see why Andrew would be any different. So while it's a limiting factor today, I don't see it as a long term problem.

[Lipoli390]

Dieng is also #2 in the league in roll man defense behind only Aldridge. .48 PPP and 21.1% FG shooting. 96.1 percentile. 21 total possessions defended. So at least Sam isn't spewing hot air about his remarks that Dieng is a better PnR defender than Towns. He's significantly better statistically speaking.

It should also be noted that Zach is in the 83.9 percentile of spot up shooting defense at .71 PPP and 34.5% FG shooting to Martin's 23.3 percentile and 1.09 PPP and 42% FG shooting. Zach is also in the 15.9th percentile for ball handler defense at .97 PPP and 48.9% FG shooting so Sam obviously doesn't look at those numbers to determine whether or not Zach can play PG (answer is he can't and shouldn't defensively).

Very interesting stats, Kahns. Thanks for posting.

[Lipoli390]

Here is how I would rank Andrew's weaknesses:

1) Stamina. I've written about this before but I just don't think he has his grown man lungs yet. He seems to get winded very easily. You can see it on most of the closeups they show of him. I think this one flaw affects his anticipation, rebounding, free throw shooting, and getting easy baskets. I'd find some way to build stamina in him before I do anything else.

2) Hands. He really struggles to catch the ball in traffic, and you can forget about him coming up with a loose ball on the floor. Whereas stamina can be developed, I don't think that bad hands is necessarily something that will improve. This might be his foremost limiting factor over time.

3) Overall strength. I agree with World that this needs a lot of work. But for most players this is just a matter of maturing, and I don't see why Andrew would be any different. So while it's a limiting factor today, I don't see it as a long term problem.

Cool - I haven't noticed a stamina issue with Andrew. I'll watch more closely for that. I actually think Wiggins is pretty strong. You can see that strength when he goes to the rim. He holds up under a lot of hard contact and rarely gets knocked to the floor, often finishing or coming close to finishing through contact. Even more encouraging is the fact that, at age 20, he's going to keep getting stronger.

I agree with you completely on Wiggins poor hands. And I would add as another weakness his shaky ball-handling. Unlike his poor hands, he can improve his handle but only so much. Ballhandling is one of those basic motor skills that needs to be developed early in life. But we'll see. His poor rebounding goes hand in hand with his poor reaction to loose balls and lack of steals. All those deficits stem from his lack of that instinct offen referred to a nose for the ball. I don't see Wiggins developing into a good rebounder or ball-hawk since those are things that tend to reflect instincts Wiggns doesn't appear to have.

The good news is that Wiggns is an elite athlete with great length, extraordinary body control in the air and a nice knack for getting to the line. He also has a nice shooting stroke and, while he's way too inconsistent, shooting is a skill that a player can substantially improve after age 20. And I think Wiggins really wants to be a great and is willing to put in the time needed to improve

[worldK]

Lip, I attribute Wiggins ability to finish in traffic on offense more to his elite athleticism than strength. He is long, wiry and have outstanding body control that he can do that. Imagine if he can bulk up and get much stronger.

From what I see, he gets push out of position a lot on rebounds. He just can't hold ground in there and never gets the tough and contested rebounds. Hopefully adding bulk and strength can help him there.