Fuel For The Wiggins Skeptics

[Coolbreeze44]

Pretty good article:

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14348723/minnesota-timberwolves-future-mvp-next-carmelo-anthony-nba

[Carlos Danger]

Pretty good article:

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14348723/minnesota-timberwolves-future-mvp-next-carmelo-anthony-nba

I'm too cheap to pay to see what it says. Can you summarize for us cheap b*stards?

[Coolbreeze44]

How is Andrew Wiggins progressing?

Chad Ford: Hey, KP, let's take a little break from the rookies now that we've covered the top four guys and take a look at last year's crop.

So let's start with the guy who went No. 1 last year, Andrew Wiggins of the Minnesota Timberwolves. I was a huge Wiggins fan before last year's draft and, in certain ways, Wiggins has exceeded my early expectations. I thought he'd take a couple of years to get really going, but one month into his sophomore season Wiggins is averaging 20.6 PPG and ranks in the top 20 in the NBA in scoring.


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Dig a little deeper and the results don't look nearly as encouraging. Wiggins is an elite athlete and he's finding ways to score. But he's not very efficient, his 3-point shot has regressed this year, he's not nearly as effective on the defensive end as we thought he'd be and overall he looks a bit one-dimensional. What do the advanced stats say?

Kevin Pelton: Overall, Wiggins' advanced stats show progression. For all the promise he showed while winning Rookie of the Year, Wiggins rated slightly worse than replacement level in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. This season, he's easily clearing that mark, almost entirely because of his increase in usage rate.

Last season, Wiggins finished 22.6 percent of the Timberwolves' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or a turnover. That was already pretty high for a rookie -- Jordan Clarkson (23.1 percent) and Nikola Mirotic (22.9 percent) were the lone rookies with higher usage rates. But Wiggins has dramatically upped his usage this season to 28.5 percent, which puts him in the league's top 20 and not far behind Kevin Durant (29.1 percent). For Wiggins to maintain his level of efficiency while creating so much more offense is actually pretty impressive.

Remember when the knock on Wiggins as a prospect was that he wasn't aggressive enough? You must get a chuckle out of that now.


What about Wiggins' poor defensive RPM?

Ford: There were times when Wiggins was passive in practice and on the court as a freshman at Kansas. He was 18 years old and expectations were really high, so when he didn't play with the emotional intensity of stars like Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett, people piled on.

But when I spent time with Wiggins in Santa Barbara before the draft, it was clear that aggressiveness wasn't the issue. He's never going to be as demonstrably emotional as other elite players, but he wants to win, badly. And he wants to be great.

Here's the thing I find so ironic. Scouts thought Wiggins would struggle offensively, but given his scoring and usage rate, he's actually ahead of the game. Scouts also thought he'd be dominant defensively. His length, athleticism and defensive instincts looked off the charts. However, his numbers in ESPN's real plus-minus look really low. What's causing that? Right now, James Harden has a better defensive RPM than Wiggins. James freaking Harden!

Pelton: Wiggins' defense is an interesting case. In one-on-one situations, his strength and lateral quickness make him a capable defender. According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, opponents have shot 30 percent against Wiggins on isolation plays, the third-lowest mark among players who have defended at least 20 isolation attempts.

But Wiggins hasn't been nearly as much of a presence as a help defender. And at this point in the season, RPM is heavily influenced by a player's box-score statistics because there's so much noise in adjusted plus-minus.

That's why Wiggins is lagging. His defensive statistics don't reflect his athletic gifts. So far this season, Wiggins is grabbing 6.6 percent of available defensive rebounds -- the 10th-worst mark among players with at least 250 minutes -- and averaging just 0.7 steals per 36 minutes. That's even fewer than guys like Nik Stauskas and J.R. Smith.

Surely Wiggins is better defensively than those statistics would indicate, but there's also no good reason for him to making so few impact plays on defense.



Is Andrew Wiggins more like Carmelo Anthony than Kevin Durant? AP Photo/Jim Mone

How will Wiggins develop?

Ford: Wiggins really is an interesting case study. Watch him on a nightly basis and he does three or four things that make you think this guy is (or is going to be) a superstar. Every scout I speak to loves him. Virtually all of them think he's going to reach that level. It's hard not to be attracted to his game. And when he's averaging 20-plus points a night and is already helping the Wolves to a surprising start, it's easy to get excited.

The advanced stats aren't nearly as enthusiastic. But this may be a case where the eyes are seeing what Wiggins can become while the numbers are telling us what he is right now.

I think both of us feel like he will retain all of his strengths (explosiveness, length, speed, aggressiveness) and he'll continue to work on his weaknesses. As his basketball intelligence grows and as he gets more work done off the court in the summers, the ceiling remains very, very high.

Kevin, if you were putting together a regimen for what Wiggins needs to work on, what would you say?

Pelton: I think the numbers can also show Wiggins' potential if we look at the most predictive numbers. Specifically, Wiggins' usage rate is a key indicator. Five players since the ABA-NBA merger have posted a usage rate of 28 percent or higher during a season they started at age 20 or younger: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Larry Hughes and Kyrie Irving.

While that group doesn't guarantee stardom, Wiggins is in pretty good company.

Last year, I felt like Durant was the best match for what I saw from Wiggins. Now I'm starting to wonder whether Carmelo makes more sense as a comparison.

FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO similarity tool (fittingly) had Anthony as his best comp entering the season. The difference between those two scenarios, I'd say, is how Durant evolved deep into his NBA career.

Starting with elite scoring, Durant added elite rebounding, developed his playmaking and ultimately became an above-average defender. Those are the things I'd want Wiggins to work on, along with continuing to improve his 3-point shooting.


Building the Timberwolves around Wiggins

Ford: And that's the question for so many of these young players, isn't it? Will they keep working or will they be satisfied with where they are at? Melo plateaued as a player -- he's a heck of a scorer, but if Wiggins doesn't round out his game more than Anthony did, that will be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, Durant continues to add new strengths to his game.

Some of a player's ceiling is obviously attributed to natural abilities. But so much of it has to do with a player's willingness to get back into the gym each offseason and continue to develop his game. So far Wiggins has shown a willingness to work. If that continues, I'd lean closer to Durant. If he becomes complacent with where he's at, Carmelo might be a better comp.

My last question is, how good a fit is Wiggins in Minnesota? When I watch the Wolves, I can't help but walk away thinking this team has a chance to be very, very special. They have young building blocks in Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine and Ricky Rubio along with great bench help from Nemanja Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad.

There's such a great combination of athleticism, size for position, skill sets and basketball IQ. How does this young team project going forward? Are the right pieces in place around Wiggins?

It seems like finding a lights-out 3-point shooter to add to the mix is their biggest need. And if I can wonder aloud, given that Sam Mitchell has an interim tag, who might be the perfect coach to help hyper-charge Wiggins' development? I spoke to several NBA scouts recently who wondered whether Mitchell is the right guy to get the most out of Wiggins.






If John Calipari would ever leave Kentucky, this is where I'd love him to land. I also would love to see Brett Brown here. I think Brown has gotten the most out of a horrible roster in Philly. I would love to see what he could do with better players.

Pelton: In the backcourt, I still think they need to figure out where LaVine fits. After initially announcing that LaVine would start at shooting guard, Mitchell has played him almost exclusively at point guard. If he and Ricky Rubio can play together in the backcourt, the Timberwolves might already have four pieces of their eventual starting lineup in place.

As for a new coach, one obvious choice would be the one who guided Durant's development, Scott Brooks. Whatever his shortcomings as a tactician, Brooks has demonstrated the ability to nurture young talent and help it coalesce into a winning team.

[Carlos Danger]

Thanks Cool. I thought it was a decent read and balanced. This comment sums it up for me:

"The advanced stats aren't nearly as enthusiastic. But this may be a case where the eyes are seeing what Wiggins can become while the numbers are telling us what he is right now."

I remember writing something similar last year in the dreaded Wiggins Thread. You look at the guy and think "there's no way this guy won't be a very good player". But the actual advanced numbers have always been trailing due to the reasons stated in the article. I'm content with where Wiggins is at right now, but certainly hope he'll continue to improve. The advanced stats I follow show (PER, WS/48 and VORP) all show he has taken a step forward from last year. But those same stats show he still has a long way to go before he's Super Star material. I still think he'll get there. It looks like he might progress a little slower than Towns. But that's okay. If those two guys are hitting their prime in 2 years, I think that will be about perfect.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Thanks for sharing the article. It makes me more encouraged. I also like the mention of Brooks and Calipari, who I think both would be well suited to develop our young players.

[Coolbreeze44]

Next coach needs to have a fast break pedigree

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Thanks Cool. I thought it was a decent read and balanced. This comment sums it up for me:

"The advanced stats aren't nearly as enthusiastic. But this may be a case where the eyes are seeing what Wiggins can become while the numbers are telling us what he is right now."

I remember writing something similar last year in the dreaded Wiggins Thread. You look at the guy and think "there's no way this guy won't be a very good player". But the actual advanced numbers have always been trailing due to the reasons stated in the article. I'm content with where Wiggins is at right now, but certainly hope he'll continue to improve. The advanced stats I follow show (PER, WS/48 and VORP) all show he has taken a step forward from last year. But those same stats show he still has a long way to go before he's Super Star material. I still think he'll get there. It looks like he might progress a little slower than Towns. But that's okay. If those two guys are hitting their prime in 2 years, I think that will be about perfect.

That same statement caught my eye too Carlos - it also totally sums up the "division" between folks that view him as a near certain superstar and folks like myself that like to project things from stats and historical comparisons and view inevitable stardom with skepticism. Really good player someday? Yes. Superstar? Not confident at all.

As for his defense, it's worth noting how some of his lack of "doing shit other than score" negatively impacts his numbers. Yes, he is a tremendous isolation defender. But what about the defensive rebounding, the steals, taking charges, getting the 50/50 balls? Those things impact a defense too.

Given his age, athleticism, and character, I think he gradually gets better and better and better. BUT....I just don't see the type of jack-of-all trades superstar wing coming to fruition at this point. And that's OK. A really good player is still....a really good player. We need as many as we can get!

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

Khans, If I had to choose one category that my defender would excel at, I would agree that one on one straight-up defense would be the one I'd pick. But that doesn't mean all the other aspects of defense are totally meaningless either. Defensive rebounding and creating turnovers are also part of defense. Wiggins excels at one, not so much the other two. I don't think he's a poor defender by any stretch, but his inability to impact the game in other ways does hold him back a bit.