Minnesota Sports Forum

Hicks123 wrote:My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

TheFuture wrote:

Hicks123 wrote:My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

Hicks123 wrote:My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

Isn't that Stromile to a tee?

monsterpile wrote:I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

Hicks123 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

Hicks123 wrote:My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

Isn't that Stromile to a tee?

I actually agree with this. Like I said, on tape you can see why teams may fall in love. But in real life, he is a long ways away from a fundamental standpoint. That's why I see him as a longer term investment for the team that drafts him. But if his IQ never catches up with his athleticism, he has little chance of becoming anything more than a bench big.

TheFuture wrote:

monsterpile wrote:I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

Fortunately for us, we don't need to worry about Dunn's FT shooting in the fourth quarter. 70% free throw shooting does not make him unplayable though. Like has been stated many times here, Dunn was the man in college and was made to force the issue on offense. That wouldn't be the case here, as we don't need him to be a 20ppg scorer. He's going to come in and contribute defensively right away, facilitate for teammates, and is a much better bet than Ricky to go off for those 15-20 pts on any given night. You can bag on his shooting, but he is already a better scorer than Ricky.

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:A bust is typically a physically gifted player who generates high expectations and then fails miserably to come anywhere close to meeting those expectations. Some prominent examples who have found their way onto past Wolves rosters include JR Rider, Rashaad McCants, Darko, Kandiman and Wes Johnson. Derrick Williams isn't quite bad enough in my view to be considered a bust, but he's pretty close.

The common thread, other than a medical condition or injury, that seems to run through all NBA busts is the lack of a high motor or to a lesser degree a low basketball IQ. Sometimes it's substance abuse. Nearly all of them had a draft report somewhere questioning their motor. For example, I remember Hoiberg telling me that Derrick Williams liked the NBA lifestyle more than he liked basketball. That's another way of saying Derrick didn't have much of a motor. Smiling Wes was just happy to hang out and talk with the guys on the bench. Darko had no motor. Rider was motivated by his love of drugs and his homies, not by basketball. I remember the rap on him coming out of college was that he only played hard in nationally televised games. The rap on McCants was his questionable motor. The list goes on.

So you ask who I consider most likely to be a bust in this draft class. I'll just do some Internet research and make a list of all those top prospects who have some questions written by someone about their motor. The ones least likely to become busts are those who are regarded as having both a high level of talent and a high-revving motor.

Great post. One nitpick. If Rider is a bust than D-Will is more so. At least Rider was highly productive for a few years.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:A bust is typically a physically gifted player who generates high expectations and then fails miserably to come anywhere close to meeting those expectations. Some prominent examples who have found their way onto past Wolves rosters include JR Rider, Rashaad McCants, Darko, Kandiman and Wes Johnson. Derrick Williams isn't quite bad enough in my view to be considered a bust, but he's pretty close.

The common thread, other than a medical condition or injury, that seems to run through all NBA busts is the lack of a high motor or to a lesser degree a low basketball IQ. Sometimes it's substance abuse. Nearly all of them had a draft report somewhere questioning their motor. For example, I remember Hoiberg telling me that Derrick Williams liked the NBA lifestyle more than he liked basketball. That's another way of saying Derrick didn't have much of a motor. Smiling Wes was just happy to hang out and talk with the guys on the bench. Darko had no motor. Rider was motivated by his love of drugs and his homies, not by basketball. I remember the rap on him coming out of college was that he only played hard in nationally televised games. The rap on McCants was his questionable motor. The list goes on.

So you ask who I consider most likely to be a bust in this draft class. I'll just do some Internet research and make a list of all those top prospects who have some questions written by someone about their motor. The ones least likely to become busts are those who are regarded as having both a high level of talent and a high-revving motor.

Great post. One nitpick. If Rider is a bust than D-Will is more so. At least Rider was highly productive for a few years.

With stats... yes. But he might have been a worse player for the team... if that makes sense.

He was just so destructive.

monsterpile wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

monsterpile wrote:I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

Fortunately for us, we don't need to worry about Dunn's FT shooting in the fourth quarter. 70% free throw shooting does not make him unplayable though. Like has been stated many times here, Dunn was the man in college and was made to force the issue on offense. That wouldn't be the case here, as we don't need him to be a 20ppg scorer. He's going to come in and contribute defensively right away, facilitate for teammates, and is a much better bet than Ricky to go off for those 15-20 pts on any given night. You can bag on his shooting, but he is already a better scorer than Ricky.

If we aren't worried about a guy's low FT percentage in the 4th quarter...then that means he won't be a high level player right? That's my point. I don't see the massive upside with Dunn that's all I don't think he will suck.