Minnesota Sports Forum

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 4:20 pm

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 5:18 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:47 pm

Yes. Just stepping back and looking at this objectively, the logic takes me to where you’ve been at for a while. The one caveat is that there could always be a team out there with some cap space that sees KAT as a big needle mover for them — someone who could substantially elevate their status from playoff team to contender.

Those teams are either deep into the process of a rebuild-- like the Nets or are teams that will do what they can to stay competitive, but hate KAT's guts, like Miami and Golden State.

Miami and Golden State hate KAT? That doesn’t make any sense. Front office execs want players they believe can help them win. KAT was the best player on a 46-win Wolves team two years ago. He was instrumental in getting the Wolves into the play-in series when he returned from injury the next season. He was terrible in the Dallas series, but he was a key reason the Wolves won 56 games last season and made it to the Western Conference Finals. He’s an all-star caliber big and great offensive player with a 40% three-point shot. To top it all off, he’s become a good defender. And of course, he’s a model citizen with no baggage. Given all that, I doubt there are any teams that hate him and there are undoubtedly teams that really like him. At the same time, KAT is not a superstar but has a superstar contract.

I think Cool’s point, and I agree, is that KAT’s contract makes it difficult to trade him for the combination of cap relief and assets we’d want in return. To optimize his trade value, we would have had to trade him two or three years ago. My point is that there MIGHT be a competitive playoff team not in full rebuild mold who’d be willing to give us a decent return in exchange for KAT. But I think KAT is probably worth more to us as a player than a trade asset at this point.

Sundog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:33 am This from a recent Hollinger/Athletic article:

“Finally there’s Rudy Gobert in Minnesota. The reigning Defense Player of the Year is technically eligible for a four-year, $243 million extension. No, he’s not getting that. What is interesting is whether the Wolves can slowly land the plane on the back half of his career by signing an extension that massages their impending giant luxury tax bill.

Having Gobert opt out of his $46.7 million due in 2025-26 and extend for a more manageable number over a four-year span is one of the more palatable exits from their current cap situation. But at what number? Something like $100 million in new money would see his cap number dip to $32.5 million in 2025-26, which would almost certainly allow Minnesota to skip the second apron and avoid having its 2033 draft pick frozen.

Of course, they don’t have to do that right now; the two sides could even wait until next summer. But it would be an interesting way for the Wolves to get in front of their financial situation.“

60WinTim wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 7:18 am

Sundog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:33 am This from a recent Hollinger/Athletic article:

“Finally there’s Rudy Gobert in Minnesota. The reigning Defense Player of the Year is technically eligible for a four-year, $243 million extension. No, he’s not getting that. What is interesting is whether the Wolves can slowly land the plane on the back half of his career by signing an extension that massages their impending giant luxury tax bill.

Having Gobert opt out of his $46.7 million due in 2025-26 and extend for a more manageable number over a four-year span is one of the more palatable exits from their current cap situation. But at what number? Something like $100 million in new money would see his cap number dip to $32.5 million in 2025-26, which would almost certainly allow Minnesota to skip the second apron and avoid having its 2033 draft pick frozen.

Of course, they don’t have to do that right now; the two sides could even wait until next summer. But it would be an interesting way for the Wolves to get in front of their financial situation.“

As I said before, there is a number in the low 30's that not only gets the Wolves under the 2nd apron, but could take them just below the luxury tax! Of course, it would mean not re-signing NAZ and NAW next off-season (assuming NAZ opts out)...

Sundog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:33 am This from a recent Hollinger/Athletic article:

“Finally there’s Rudy Gobert in Minnesota. The reigning Defense Player of the Year is technically eligible for a four-year, $243 million extension. No, he’s not getting that. What is interesting is whether the Wolves can slowly land the plane on the back half of his career by signing an extension that massages their impending giant luxury tax bill.

Having Gobert opt out of his $46.7 million due in 2025-26 and extend for a more manageable number over a four-year span is one of the more palatable exits from their current cap situation. But at what number? Something like $100 million in new money would see his cap number dip to $32.5 million in 2025-26, which would almost certainly allow Minnesota to skip the second apron and avoid having its 2033 draft pick frozen.

Of course, they don’t have to do that right now; the two sides could even wait until next summer. But it would be an interesting way for the Wolves to get in front of their financial situation.“

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:56 pm

Sundog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:33 am This from a recent Hollinger/Athletic article:

“Finally there’s Rudy Gobert in Minnesota. The reigning Defense Player of the Year is technically eligible for a four-year, $243 million extension. No, he’s not getting that. What is interesting is whether the Wolves can slowly land the plane on the back half of his career by signing an extension that massages their impending giant luxury tax bill.

Having Gobert opt out of his $46.7 million due in 2025-26 and extend for a more manageable number over a four-year span is one of the more palatable exits from their current cap situation. But at what number? Something like $100 million in new money would see his cap number dip to $32.5 million in 2025-26, which would almost certainly allow Minnesota to skip the second apron and avoid having its 2033 draft pick frozen.

Of course, they don’t have to do that right now; the two sides could even wait until next summer. But it would be an interesting way for the Wolves to get in front of their financial situation.“

I don’t think Hollinger has his math right.

With Rudy and Naz opting in, the Wolves payroll starting the 2025-26 season would be slightly over $209 million. The current second apron is at $188 million. If the Wolves reduce Rudy’s $46 million down to $30 million and Naz exercises his player option at $15 million, the Wolves payroll would be close to $194 million, which would be around $6 million over the current 2nd apron and probably still over the 2nd apron next summer. Moreover, we’d only have 9 roster players adding up to that number - without NAW or Luka Garza. And of course that assumes Naz opts in at $15 million even though his market value will likely be significantly higher. If Naz doesn’t opt in and we let him walk, our payroll would be around $179 million with 6 roster spots to fill. If we filled all 6 with vet minimum guys, which means letting NAW walk, our payroll would be around $191 million - $3 million over the current 2nd apron threshold.

Bottom line is that we can’t realistically keep both Rudy and KAT beyond next season unless Rudy agrees to an extension at a salary substantially below $30 million (way, way below his $46 million opt in). If he agrees to an annual salary of $20 million, then we could possibly keep NAW and stay below the 2nd apron, but we’d lose Naz. To keep all three bigs and have any chance of squeezing in under the 2nd apron, Rudy would have to accept no more than $15 million per year and Naz would have to accept no more than $25 million annually. But it would still be really hard to get under the 2nd apron after filling the remaining roster slots and we’d still lose NAW.

Again, it’s highly unlikely the Wolves keep both Rudy and KAT after next season. I continue to believe the Wolves will trade KAT next summer mainly because Rudy provides what neither Naz nor Garza provides and because TC continues to express his desire to extend Rudy. However, TC said they wanted to re-sign Kyle Anderson for next season; yet they didn’t and it seems clear they didn’t sign him because he wanted a multi-year deal, which would frustrate the team’s ability to get under the 2nd apron. So as much as TC might sincerely say he wants to extend and keep Rudy, the reality of the second apron will likely prevent it unless Rudy is accommodating to an extent that would be highly unusual. Further, the Wolves front office might be prepared to pivot to a more space-and-pace game for Wolves 2.0 with Ant, Jaden, Dilly, TSJ, Naz and KAT. I also think Rudy might land us a better return because of his expiring contract. So I won’t be surprised if the Wolves keep KAT and move Rudy next summer. I WILL be surprised if the Wolves keep both.

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:09 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:56 pm

Sundog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:33 am This from a recent Hollinger/Athletic article:

“Finally there’s Rudy Gobert in Minnesota. The reigning Defense Player of the Year is technically eligible for a four-year, $243 million extension. No, he’s not getting that. What is interesting is whether the Wolves can slowly land the plane on the back half of his career by signing an extension that massages their impending giant luxury tax bill.

Having Gobert opt out of his $46.7 million due in 2025-26 and extend for a more manageable number over a four-year span is one of the more palatable exits from their current cap situation. But at what number? Something like $100 million in new money would see his cap number dip to $32.5 million in 2025-26, which would almost certainly allow Minnesota to skip the second apron and avoid having its 2033 draft pick frozen.

Of course, they don’t have to do that right now; the two sides could even wait until next summer. But it would be an interesting way for the Wolves to get in front of their financial situation.“

I don’t think Hollinger has his math right.

With Rudy and Naz opting in, the Wolves payroll starting the 2025-26 season would be slightly over $209 million. The current second apron is at $188 million. If the Wolves reduce Rudy’s $46 million down to $30 million and Naz exercises his player option at $15 million, the Wolves payroll would be close to $194 million, which would be around $6 million over the current 2nd apron and probably still over the 2nd apron next summer. Moreover, we’d only have 9 roster players adding up to that number - without NAW or Luka Garza. And of course that assumes Naz opts in at $15 million even though his market value will likely be significantly higher. If Naz doesn’t opt in and we let him walk, our payroll would be around $179 million with 6 roster spots to fill. If we filled all 6 with vet minimum guys, which means letting NAW walk, our payroll would be around $191 million - $3 million over the current 2nd apron threshold.

Bottom line is that we can’t realistically keep both Rudy and KAT beyond next season unless Rudy agrees to an extension at a salary substantially below $30 million (way, way below his $46 million opt in). If he agrees to an annual salary of $20 million, then we could possibly keep NAW and stay below the 2nd apron, but we’d lose Naz. To keep all three bigs and have any chance of squeezing in under the 2nd apron, Rudy would have to accept no more than $15 million per year and Naz would have to accept no more than $25 million annually. But it would still be really hard to get under the 2nd apron after filling the remaining roster slots and we’d still lose NAW.

Again, it’s highly unlikely the Wolves keep both Rudy and KAT after next season. I continue to believe the Wolves will trade KAT next summer mainly because Rudy provides what neither Naz nor Garza provides and because TC continues to express his desire to extend Rudy. However, TC said they wanted to re-sign Kyle Anderson for next season; yet they didn’t and it seems clear they didn’t sign him because he wanted a multi-year deal, which would frustrate the team’s ability to get under the 2nd apron. So as much as TC might sincerely say he wants to extend and keep Rudy, the reality of the second apron will likely prevent it unless Rudy is accommodating to an extent that would be highly unusual. Further, the Wolves front office might be prepared to pivot to a more space-and-pace game for Wolves 2.0 with Ant, Jaden, Dilly, TSJ, Naz and KAT. I also think Rudy might land us a better return because of his expiring contract. So I won’t be surprised if the Wolves keep KAT and move Rudy next summer. I WILL be surprised if the Wolves keep both.

I believe with the new tv deal the cap will go up 10% in 25-26 due to the cap smoothing so the 2nd apron should start at 206.8 in 25-26 and another 10% in 26-27 so that should be 227.48 for the 2nd apron. Either way yeah it's going to be hard to give Naz his full value even with Rudy lowering his salary.

Monster wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:10 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:09 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:56 pm

I don’t think Hollinger has his math right.

With Rudy and Naz opting in, the Wolves payroll starting the 2025-26 season would be slightly over $209 million. The current second apron is at $188 million. If the Wolves reduce Rudy’s $46 million down to $30 million and Naz exercises his player option at $15 million, the Wolves payroll would be close to $194 million, which would be around $6 million over the current 2nd apron and probably still over the 2nd apron next summer. Moreover, we’d only have 9 roster players adding up to that number - without NAW or Luka Garza. And of course that assumes Naz opts in at $15 million even though his market value will likely be significantly higher. If Naz doesn’t opt in and we let him walk, our payroll would be around $179 million with 6 roster spots to fill. If we filled all 6 with vet minimum guys, which means letting NAW walk, our payroll would be around $191 million - $3 million over the current 2nd apron threshold.

Bottom line is that we can’t realistically keep both Rudy and KAT beyond next season unless Rudy agrees to an extension at a salary substantially below $30 million (way, way below his $46 million opt in). If he agrees to an annual salary of $20 million, then we could possibly keep NAW and stay below the 2nd apron, but we’d lose Naz. To keep all three bigs and have any chance of squeezing in under the 2nd apron, Rudy would have to accept no more than $15 million per year and Naz would have to accept no more than $25 million annually. But it would still be really hard to get under the 2nd apron after filling the remaining roster slots and we’d still lose NAW.

Again, it’s highly unlikely the Wolves keep both Rudy and KAT after next season. I continue to believe the Wolves will trade KAT next summer mainly because Rudy provides what neither Naz nor Garza provides and because TC continues to express his desire to extend Rudy. However, TC said they wanted to re-sign Kyle Anderson for next season; yet they didn’t and it seems clear they didn’t sign him because he wanted a multi-year deal, which would frustrate the team’s ability to get under the 2nd apron. So as much as TC might sincerely say he wants to extend and keep Rudy, the reality of the second apron will likely prevent it unless Rudy is accommodating to an extent that would be highly unusual. Further, the Wolves front office might be prepared to pivot to a more space-and-pace game for Wolves 2.0 with Ant, Jaden, Dilly, TSJ, Naz and KAT. I also think Rudy might land us a better return because of his expiring contract. So I won’t be surprised if the Wolves keep KAT and move Rudy next summer. I WILL be surprised if the Wolves keep both.

I believe with the new tv deal the cap will go up 10% in 25-26 due to the cap smoothing so the 2nd apron should start at 206.8 in 25-26 and another 10% in 26-27 so that should be 227.48 for the 2nd apron. Either way yeah it's going to be hard to give Naz his full value even with Rudy lowering his salary.

2 things to add.

Garza is on a 2 year deal with a club option in the 2nd year for what like 2.6 million? That's basically a vet min deal. They are only cutting him loose if he sucks.

Lip makes a good point Connelly said they hope this is Gobert's last stop. It's clear though Connelly has limits about what he will pay to keep players like Lip mentioned with Kyle Anderson. I think he said nice things about Taurean Prince too but they decided to allocate those funds differently and that led them to be able to trade for Morris. If Connelly can figure out a way he can downgrade from Gobert's (or Towns) value on the court a bit while saving a bunch money and getting assets like he did by moving Kyle anderson and signing Joe Ingles to the vet min...then sure he might go that route. I do think Connelly is willing to offer something that's far from a total slap in the face to Gobert in an extension. But how much and how long is he willing to go? Idk it's gonna depend on how much Gobert is willing to take. Let's keep in mind for Gobert to opt out he is opting out of 46.5 million. That's a bunch of money. He has to make a good chunk on the years following or what is the point of opting out financially?

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)