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Re: Wolves Vs OKC
Posted: Mon May 19, 2025 8:25 pm
by Q-is-here
FNG wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 4:17 pm
Jester1534 wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 3:29 pm
Wild stat on Dane Moore Podcast today
The nuggets in game 4-5-6-7
Were 6-46 from the corner three.
Holy crap, if Denver had just made a third of those corners, they win games 4 and 5 and we're getting ready to play them in the finals. OkC chose to double Jokic and leave those shots open, and Westbrook, Porter Jr., the bench for the most part, and even Braun complied. If Ju gets the ball in the paint and they double him, he'll find the open man...and we're not going to miss 40 out of 46 shots.
Yeah, I don't see Julius getting doubled as much or it may be very quick swipe-downs, but not hard doubles where they can't recover to shooters. OKC is very good at scrambling and closing out, so I just don't see a lot of wide open 3's being generated. It may have been more of a strategy against Denver to give some of those up in order to slow down Jokic (and it worked).
Re: Wolves Vs OKC
Posted: Mon May 19, 2025 8:37 pm
by 60WinTim
So here is an interesting take: NAZ has a LOT of money riding on this series. He needs a good series to have a chance at a decent contract extension. Otherwise, I would not be surprised if TC chooses to move on from NAZ.
Here is an interesting financial observation: if Randle is signed starting at his player option, 31 mil, and they let NAZ walk, they could draft a couple of bigs and sign a FA (Lopez?) and actually get under the luxury tax, let alone both aprons. At some point, the Wolves need to get under the luxury tax to avoid being a tax repeater. This offseason might be that time.
Of course, this all assumes Randle continues justifying his extension...
Re: Wolves Vs OKC
Posted: Mon May 19, 2025 10:17 pm
by Wolvesfan21
Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 6:48 pm
The series line with my book is OKC -330, Wolves +265
They aren't giving us much of a chance
Zero respect for the Wolves. OKC is a massive favorite to win it all. Wolves are 3rd in the odds.
Re: Wolves Vs OKC
Posted: Tue May 20, 2025 6:24 am
by FNG
Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 8:25 pm
FNG wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 4:17 pm
Jester1534 wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 3:29 pm
Wild stat on Dane Moore Podcast today
The nuggets in game 4-5-6-7
Were 6-46 from the corner three.
Holy crap, if Denver had just made a third of those corners, they win games 4 and 5 and we're getting ready to play them in the finals. OkC chose to double Jokic and leave those shots open, and Westbrook, Porter Jr., the bench for the most part, and even Braun complied. If Ju gets the ball in the paint and they double him, he'll find the open man...and we're not going to miss 40 out of 46 shots.
Yeah, I don't see Julius getting doubled as much or it may be very quick swipe-downs, but not hard doubles where they can't recover to shooters. OKC is very good at scrambling and closing out, so I just don't see a lot of wide open 3's being generated. It may have been more of a strategy against Denver to give some of those up in order to slow down Jokic (and it worked).
Q, I highly recommend the Dane Moore podcast this week Jester mentioned in which Dane discussed the series with his OkC counterpart. The OkC guy is as afraid of the Wolves as I am of his team! Here are the three things he is most afraid of, the first one being on point with your post.
1) The OkC guy came up with the stat about Denver's horrible corner three shooting. But he went on to say two things. First, OkC has given up more open threes than most of the league this season...it's been a big weakness in their defense. And second, the Wolves are much better at hitting corner threes than Denver. Bad combination.
2) The Wolves have so many wing options to defend SGA, unlike Denver. He even mentioned Clark, who played a lot against the Thunder this season.
3) OkC got better in defensive rebounding when Chet returned to the lineup, but they still are not very good. He is worried about the Wolves' offensive rebounding extending offensive possessions. (I don't agree with this one)
I still have a nagging feeling that despite this being a very entertaining series, our turnovers will result in a 4-1 victory for OkC. But I have to admit this podcast made me feel more confident about the Wolves competing. I suspect my rubeness may bloom by the end of the day, and I may alter my prediction. One thing that hasn't changed though...any smart bettor needs to take the long odds and bet the Wolves.
Re: Wolves Vs OKC
Posted: Tue May 20, 2025 7:11 am
by 60WinTim
Just remember the old adage: its not a series until a team wins on their opponent's home court. If that adage holds up, it means we made it to game 7 where anything can happen.
The Wolves have been a good road team. They get the first two shots at taking the upper hand in the series. Even if they lose these first two games, nothing changes with their mission: win their home games and win one game on the road. But with that being said, the game tonight is likely the Wolves best chance at stealing a game on the road. OKC is coming off the euphoria of a game 7 win and hit the court again with little time to prepare for the Wolves. The Wolves laid an egg last time they had the "rest" advantage in the Warriors' series. I am counting on a "lesson learned" as they start this series with the "rest" advantage.
Re: Wolves Vs OKC
Posted: Tue May 20, 2025 8:00 am
by Q-is-here
FNG wrote: ↑Tue May 20, 2025 6:24 am
Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 8:25 pm
FNG wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 4:17 pm
Holy crap, if Denver had just made a third of those corners, they win games 4 and 5 and we're getting ready to play them in the finals. OkC chose to double Jokic and leave those shots open, and Westbrook, Porter Jr., the bench for the most part, and even Braun complied. If Ju gets the ball in the paint and they double him, he'll find the open man...and we're not going to miss 40 out of 46 shots.
Yeah, I don't see Julius getting doubled as much or it may be very quick swipe-downs, but not hard doubles where they can't recover to shooters. OKC is very good at scrambling and closing out, so I just don't see a lot of wide open 3's being generated. It may have been more of a strategy against Denver to give some of those up in order to slow down Jokic (and it worked).
Q, I highly recommend the Dane Moore podcast this week Jester mentioned in which Dane discussed the series with his OkC counterpart. The OkC guy is as afraid of the Wolves as I am of his team! Here are the three things he is most afraid of, the first one being on point with your post.
1) The OkC guy came up with the stat about Denver's horrible corner three shooting. But he went on to say two things. First, OkC has given up more open threes than most of the league this season...it's been a big weakness in their defense. And second, the Wolves are much better at hitting corner threes than Denver. Bad combination.
2) The Wolves have so many wing options to defend SGA, unlike Denver. He even mentioned Clark, who played a lot against the Thunder this season.
3) OkC got better in defensive rebounding when Chet returned to the lineup, but they still are not very good. He is worried about the Wolves' offensive rebounding extending offensive possessions. (I don't agree with this one)
I still have a nagging feeling that despite this being a very entertaining series, our turnovers will result in a 4-1 victory for OkC. But I have to admit this podcast made me feel more confident about the Wolves competing. I suspect my rubeness may bloom by the end of the day, and I may alter my prediction. One thing that hasn't changed though...any smart bettor needs to take the long odds and bet the Wolves.
Mmmm, I don't quite get what that OKC guy is talking about as it relates to open 3's. Yes, OKC gives up a fairly high volume of 3's (they were 23rd in the league in the number of 3PTAs their opponent took), but they were #1 in opponent 3pt%, which means they must close out well and get a hand up.
During the regular season, OKC was #1 in opponent 3pt%, #1 in opponent 2pt%, #1 in forcing turnovers, and #1 in not turning the ball over. It's just so rare to see a team have such a huge turnover differential while also defending shots so well, meaning whatever risks they are taking to generate turnovers doesn't compromise their ability to still contest shots.
They are an all-time great defense.
I actually think we have the personnel to "out-OKC" OKC, but it's probably too late at this point to try it. It would involve using a 10 to 11-man rotation and going absolutely balls-out on defense, including picking up at full court. Clark and Shannon especially fit the OKC mold, except they are bigger and stronger than some of the piranhas the Thunder have coming off their bench.