Wolves Vs OKC

[Coolbreeze44]

The series line with my book is OKC -330, Wolves +265

They aren't giving us much of a chance

[60WinTim]

Bet the Farm!!!

[davemang]

Hopefully this WCF follows the same script as last year - road team with rest and WCF experience takes control right away against a really good team coming off an emotional and physical 7 game series vs the Nuggets.

[FNG]

Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

[WildWolf2813]

if Naz Reid has a good series, we can't lose.

[Q-is-here]

Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

At some point, we need to take their 68 regular season wins at face value. That means they are indeed really, really good and a cut above everyone else in the West. I remember thinking Boston and their 64 wins last year had it too easy in the East and they'd be beaten by whoever came out of the gauntlet in the West. Nope. They pretty easily beat the Mavs in 5 games.

That doesn't mean OKC isn't beatable, but the Wolves are rightfully underdogs.

[WildWolf2813]

Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

Boston entered their series vs. the Knicks -900, Knicks +550.

Boston lost the first 2 games at home and were STILL -300 to win the series.

Just split the first 2 at OKC and go from there.

[FNG]

Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

Boston entered their series vs. the Knicks -900, Knicks +550.

Boston lost the first 2 games at home and were STILL -300 to win the series.

Just split the first 2 at OKC and go from there.

You're right, WW. The typical sports gambler is not very smart, and recency bias greatly impacts the lines. Forgotten is the fact that the Wolves dispatched two California teams 4-1, and the Thunder's thrashing of Denver yesterday is foremost in the betting public's mind. Hence a ridiculously inflated line. I agree that we need to get a split in OkC.

But I continue to worry about this series. The propensity of Ant/Ju to turn the ball over combined with a ferocious defense that loves to turn teams over is a prescription for a very frustrating series. I had nightmares as I drifted off to sleep last night of layup after layup by the Thunder after turnovers. Their 37-7 advantage in points after turnovers yesterday is downright scary. Take a look at the only game in which we played OkC at full strength (Ju missed the last 3 games)...the 113-105 loss on their court. In that game we turned the ball over 23 times against 21 assists, while OkC had 25 assists and only 8 turnovers...it's kind of amazing we only lost by 8, but maybe Holmgren being out kept the score closer. I do note that Mike had only 1 of those turnovers. It seems to me that having the ball in his hands more than our two top scorers might be the strategy to combat OkC's defense. We'll have to see, I guess. I think we all agree though that protecting the ball will be the key to keeping this series competitive...the 12 turnovers Ant and Ju had in Game 5 against the Warriors ain't gonna work against this team.

[Q-is-here]

Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

Boston entered their series vs. the Knicks -900, Knicks +550.

Boston lost the first 2 games at home and were STILL -300 to win the series.

Just split the first 2 at OKC and go from there.

You're right, WW. The typical sports gambler is not very smart, and recency bias greatly impacts the lines. Forgotten is the fact that the Wolves dispatched two California teams 4-1, and the Thunder's thrashing of Denver yesterday is foremost in the betting public's mind. Hence a ridiculously inflated line. I agree that we need to get a split in OkC.

But I continue to worry about this series. The propensity of Ant/Ju to turn the ball over combined with a ferocious defense that loves to turn teams over is a prescription for a very frustrating series. I had nightmares as I drifted off to sleep last night of layup after layup by the Thunder after turnovers. Their 37-7 advantage in points after turnovers yesterday is downright scary. Take a look at the only game in which we played OkC at full strength (Ju missed the last 3 games)...the 113-105 loss on their court. In that game we turned the ball over 23 times against 21 assists, while OkC had 25 assists and only 8 turnovers...it's kind of amazing we only lost by 8, but maybe Holmgren being out kept the score closer. I do note that Mike had only 1 of those turnovers. It seems to me that having the ball in his hands more than our two top scorers might be the strategy to combat OkC's defense. We'll have to see, I guess. I think we all agree though that protecting the ball will be the key to keeping this series competitive...the 12 turnovers Ant and Ju had in Game 5 against the Warriors ain't gonna work against this team.

Denver took the Thunder to 7 games despite losing the turnover battle pretty significantly, 124 to 78. And the things Denver beat OKC in, rebounding and getting to the free throw line, are things I think the Wolves can excel at as well. Obviously SGA will get his 8-10 FTAs every night, but beyond him, they aren't great at drawing fouls and they foul the other team quite a lot. This is why I really think we need to take it to them in the paint. We are the bigger team and even bigger than Denver.

So I think we can can lose the TO battle and still come out on top, but it's just a matter of minimizing how big the gap is. The good news is that the Wolves actually got better as the season progressed in their turnover rate. And in the playoffs, Ant and Julius are averaging a combined 5.4 TOs per game, which is pretty low for the two highest usage players on the team.

[FNG]

I always need someone to focus my hate on when the Wolves enter a playoff series. Last year it was Booker (I've just never liked him personally, and his hipcheck of Mike into Finchy looked intentional to me), Murray (hate his whining about injuries...be a man like Gordon), and of course Luka. This year it has been Luka again, and then Butler (way more than Draymond for me). I like most of the guys on OkC so I'm struggling to find my series target. But although I don't know that much about him and he doesn't even start, I think it will have to be Caruso. Sure, I admire his defensive intensity, but I'm going to hate it in this series. And he just looks like he might be a dick. So yeah...absent any suggestions from you guys, I officially hate Caruso for this series.