Simmons Prediction Thread

[Monster]

Morey got Harden for nothing more than Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and two future 1st-round picks. I don't see why Morey should expect to get significantly more than the equivalent of that for Simmons under the circumstances. Yes, Harden was less accomplished after three seasons before being traded than Simmons is now after 4 seasons. Nevertheless, Harden was coming off a seasons in which he averaged nearly 17 points per game along with 4 rebounds and nearly 4 assists and a 39% three-point percentage. And he was widely regarded as having even more upside at the time. Moreover, OKC wasn't in a position where they HAD to trade Harden. He wasn't threatening to hold out and there was no acrimony between Harden and the team.

I'm not sure what would be roughly equivalent to the minimal package Morey gave up for Harden. I'd say DLO plus two lightly protected 1st round picks from the Wolves would be at least equivalent and probably better than that package. I'd say Beasley, Prince and two future unprotected or lightly-protected firsts seem equivalent. Bottom line is that I think we've all been overstating what it would or should take to get Simmons in our final/best offer ideas.

The Harden deal was about the fact that at the time OKC didn't think they could pay for everyone on the roster. They didn't HAVE to trade him but they basically decided themselves they did. It did make some sense at the time but they didn't get enough value for him. Lamb was drafted 12th overall and never played for the Rockets. Martin had already started to lose effectiveness but seemed like a great fit as a 6th man. So OKC got probably somewhere around four 1st round picks worth of value for Harden which is a pretty good return really. If I remember right Stephen Adam's was really about he only thing they got back from that trade long term other than salary flexibility. I personally thought Harden was going to be an all-star right away in Houston I thought it was a terrific move for the Rockets. I think it's hard to come up with a similar player of more recent times because it's pretty unique to have a top 5 pick coming off the bench for a really good team and that guy being fairly obviously really talented even playing in that role. There aren't many big play making guards like a Harden was coming off the bench.

[Lipoli390]

For anyone who thinks Simmons might end up playing games for the Sixers this season, consider the following:

1. Simmons has unequivocally indicated that he will not play another game for the Sixers. He has told that directly to Sixers ownership and management and he's obviously let be know to others, including reporters. There's no reason to doubt his word and believe he'd change him mind. Moreover, it would be really hard for him to play after being so emphatic about not playing.

2. The events leading up to his declaration that he won't play make it impossible for him to play without swallowing more pride than anyone can reasonably be expected to swallow. He was called out publicly by his head coach and the team's best player for the team's elimination from the playoffs. Embiid actually identified Simmons decision to pass rather than dunk as the reason for the team's elimination, even though he didn't mention Simmons by name. Doc's comment was more veiled, but it was thinly veiled. But it wasn't just those two comments. Those comments were were on top of other things, including the fact that the team had traded him for Harden before Houston backed out of the deal. Beyond that, there were multiple reports over the years that Simmons and Embiid did not get along either on or off the court. So those comments by Doc and Embiid were the culmination of a deteriorating relationship.

3. Simmons has an agent, Rich Paul, who is known for playing hard ball, including holding his clients out. Rich Paul's credibility would take a hit if Simmons went back on his decision to hold out. Not doubt Rick Paul will be reinforcing his client's decision to hold out - as if Simmons even needs encouragement.

4. Simmons will have already received half of his $33M annual pay by Oct 1, before the season starts. Therefore, if the Sixers start to fine him for missing games as a fraction of future paychecks, it will have a minimal impact on his overall wealth. Note also, that to fine him, the Sixers will have to suspend him. It should be obvious that suspending Simmons would extinguish any flicker of hope that he would play for the Sixers. So I don't believe the Sixers will fine him. Either way, bottom line is that Simmons will have little, if any, economic incentive to go back on his word, swallow his pride and play for a team he wants nothing to do with.

5. Holding out is a way to stick it to a head coach, star player and organization he despises. By holding out, he's hurting his trade value, which in turn, hurts the return the Sixers will get when they trade him.

Simmons not playing another game for the Sixers is almost as certain as death and taxes. That's the reality Morey and the Sixers' ownership face even though they can't publicly admit it. The situation was going to be challenging for the Sixers given the way Simmons played in the playoffs and given the public comments by Doc and Embiid as well as the rest of the history between Simmons and the organization. But Morey made it worse by arrogantly assuming he could still get a premium Simmons under those circumstances.

So Simmons will be traded before the season starts and the Sixers will have to settle for a deal more like the one OKC got for Harden than the ambitious bounty Morey was assuming he'd get. I supposed there's still some chance that the Sixers can get Lillard or Fox if the Sixers include enough additional value along with Simmons - Maxey, Reed and two future 1st-round picks for example. Otherwise, Morey will have to choose between modest offers from Toronto, Cleveland, Sacramento, Portland and Minnesota. Maybe Toronto will put the VanVleet/Anuoby offer back on the table, but I'm not so sure. Maybe the Kings will put the Haliburton/Barnes offer back on the table. Maybe Portland will put McCollum back on the table and offer another asset or two - maybe Covington. Maybe the Cavs will offer Sexton and Love along with a future 1st-round pick if they haven't already. At this point, Morey would be fortunate to get that return for Simmons. And maybe the Wolves will offer DLO and two future lightly-protected 1st-round picks as suggested by Bobby Marks. Right now, I view those maybes as about the best Morey can hope to get for Simmons.

[Monster]

Lip I thought your point about if the Sixers want to actually fine/suspend him...that could be the end of him actually coming back and end any hope of leverage.

One of the things that's kinda weird to me about this whole thing is that it seems like Morey is basically hoping to use Simmons to not just get value for him but get a player that's more valuable right now than Simmons. Usually it's hard to get a better player than a guy you are shopping on the trade market without including other assets. I'm sure Morey would be willing to do that for Lilliard but it sounds like he is expecting to get a super star haul for a guy everyone knows you are moving. They are going to get nice assets for him but as we saw from the Harden trade...those assets can end up pretty underwhelming even when it's a pretty good NBA franchise. Heck remember all the picks and high draft picks the Sixers had at one point? There was a lot of Sixers draft picks that didn't turn out to be much of anything. They probably did well getting 1st rounder for Fultz which turned into Maxey...although he supposedly wants out of Philly too.

[Lipoli390]

Morey got Harden for nothing more than Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and two future 1st-round picks. I don't see why Morey should expect to get significantly more than the equivalent of that for Simmons under the circumstances. Yes, Harden was less accomplished after three seasons before being traded than Simmons is now after 4 seasons. Nevertheless, Harden was coming off a seasons in which he averaged nearly 17 points per game along with 4 rebounds and nearly 4 assists and a 39% three-point percentage. And he was widely regarded as having even more upside at the time. Moreover, OKC wasn't in a position where they HAD to trade Harden. He wasn't threatening to hold out and there was no acrimony between Harden and the team.

I'm not sure what would be roughly equivalent to the minimal package Morey gave up for Harden. I'd say DLO plus two lightly protected 1st round picks from the Wolves would be at least equivalent and probably better than that package. I'd say Beasley, Prince and two future unprotected or lightly-protected firsts seem equivalent. Bottom line is that I think we've all been overstating what it would or should take to get Simmons in our final/best offer ideas.

The Harden deal was about the fact that at the time OKC didn't think they could pay for everyone on the roster. They didn't HAVE to trade him but they basically decided themselves they did. It did make some sense at the time but they didn't get enough value for him. Lamb was drafted 12th overall and never played for the Rockets. Martin had already started to lose effectiveness but seemed like a great fit as a 6th man. So OKC got probably somewhere around four 1st round picks worth of value for Harden which is a pretty good return really. If I remember right Stephen Adam's was really about he only thing they got back from that trade long term other than salary flexibility. I personally thought Harden was going to be an all-star right away in Houston I thought it was a terrific move for the Rockets. I think it's hard to come up with a similar player of more recent times because it's pretty unique to have a top 5 pick coming off the bench for a really good team and that guy being fairly obviously really talented even playing in that role. There aren't many big play making guards like a Harden was coming off the bench.

I know that OKC wanted to trade Harden to avoid the luxury tax. But as you noted, they didn't have to trade him. There was no acrimony or public stand-off and no threat of a hold out. OKC wanted to trade Harden to save money, but that was an internal calculus. There was no buzz around the League that Harden was on the block and, therefore, nothing like the inverse leverage that Morey now faces. I remember thinking at the time that Houston got a steal in that deal and that was before Harden exploded into an MVP-caliber player. Rather than converting the three players OKC received into some approximate equivalent in picks, I just look at them as three mediocre players received in exchange for a young budding all-star. Morey knew he fleeced OKC at the time. I would be great to see Morey on the receiving end of a fleecing this year. :)

[Monster]

Morey got Harden for nothing more than Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and two future 1st-round picks. I don't see why Morey should expect to get significantly more than the equivalent of that for Simmons under the circumstances. Yes, Harden was less accomplished after three seasons before being traded than Simmons is now after 4 seasons. Nevertheless, Harden was coming off a seasons in which he averaged nearly 17 points per game along with 4 rebounds and nearly 4 assists and a 39% three-point percentage. And he was widely regarded as having even more upside at the time. Moreover, OKC wasn't in a position where they HAD to trade Harden. He wasn't threatening to hold out and there was no acrimony between Harden and the team.

I'm not sure what would be roughly equivalent to the minimal package Morey gave up for Harden. I'd say DLO plus two lightly protected 1st round picks from the Wolves would be at least equivalent and probably better than that package. I'd say Beasley, Prince and two future unprotected or lightly-protected firsts seem equivalent. Bottom line is that I think we've all been overstating what it would or should take to get Simmons in our final/best offer ideas.

The Harden deal was about the fact that at the time OKC didn't think they could pay for everyone on the roster. They didn't HAVE to trade him but they basically decided themselves they did. It did make some sense at the time but they didn't get enough value for him. Lamb was drafted 12th overall and never played for the Rockets. Martin had already started to lose effectiveness but seemed like a great fit as a 6th man. So OKC got probably somewhere around four 1st round picks worth of value for Harden which is a pretty good return really. If I remember right Stephen Adam's was really about he only thing they got back from that trade long term other than salary flexibility. I personally thought Harden was going to be an all-star right away in Houston I thought it was a terrific move for the Rockets. I think it's hard to come up with a similar player of more recent times because it's pretty unique to have a top 5 pick coming off the bench for a really good team and that guy being fairly obviously really talented even playing in that role. There aren't many big play making guards like a Harden was coming off the bench.

I know that OKC wanted to trade Harden to avoid the luxury tax. But as you noted, they didn't have to trade him. There was no acrimony or public stand-off and no threat of a hold out. OKC wanted to trade Harden to save money, but that was an internal calculus. There was no buzz around the League that Harden was on the block and, therefore, nothing like the inverse leverage that Morey now faces. I remember thinking at the time that Houston got a steal in that deal and that was before Harden exploded into an MVP-caliber player. Rather than converting the three players OKC received into some approximate equivalent in picks, I just look at them as three mediocre players received in exchange for a young budding all-star. Morey knew he fleeced OKC at the time. I would be great to see Morey on the receiving end of a fleecing this year. :)

Personally at the time I was a fan of Lamb I thought he was going to at least be a solid versatile starter. If we are going to look at that trade you have to look at what the assets were at the time not in hindsight. Also i remember it was pretty well known that Harden was available before he was traded. They had tried to work out an extension but it didn't happen. It did not come as a big shock when he was traded. Yes OKC wasn't in the bad spot the Sixers were but I don't know if teams had to blow them away with an offer to get Harden away from them. I have a feeling they could have gotten more from the Rockets if they had played it out better. Even a young Sam Presti made mistakes...although probably pressured by ownership.

As it was mentioned in the Lowe podcast It would be somewhat ironic to have the Wolves and Sixers do a deal with a player where the team acquiring him doesn't exactly pay full price. It will be interesting to see what happens. Honestly I think some of the reported deals offered the Sixers were fairly reasonable and I'd guess Morey could have reasonably asked for and may have been able to negotiate another asset but he asked for their unborn child etc.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

"The structure of Ben Simmons' contract may embolden him in his plans to hold out from the Sixers, Marc Stein of Substack writes in his latest newsletter. As Stein explains, Simmons received 25% of his 2021/22 salary on August 1 and will receive another 25% on October 1, meaning he'll already have earned half of his $33MM salary for the season by the time the preseason starts."

Some added context for those that believe there's even a chance Simmons eventually reports to the Sixers. I didn't see it happening before and nothing has changed to make me think otherwise.

[TheGrey08]

I didn't catch this on First Take, but saw this recap.

Doc Rivers is on First Take on ESPN. Couple of takeaways:
-PHI isn't giving up on Ben Simmons
-Rivers confirmed Simmons has told 76ers leadership that he wants out
-Rivers says "We would love to get Ben back...We want him back."
-His post-G7 remarks on Simmons were misrepresented

-Simmons' biggest issue is free throw shooting. PHI hired a FT and a shooting coach to help
-When asked how much pressure he feels to get things right with Simmons, Rivers said "Umm...let's say I slept well last night. We have a chance to get back at it."
https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1440690579201871877

[AbeVigodaLive]

"The structure of Ben Simmons' contract may embolden him in his plans to hold out from the Sixers, Marc Stein of Substack writes in his latest newsletter. As Stein explains, Simmons received 25% of his 2021/22 salary on August 1 and will receive another 25% on October 1, meaning he'll already have earned half of his $33MM salary for the season by the time the preseason starts."

Some added context for those that believe there's even a chance Simmons eventually reports to the Sixers. I didn't see it happening before and nothing has changed to make me think otherwise.

Sometimes, there are very clear instances where it's clear that it's time for a player to move on.

After a poor showing in the playoffs... when your star teammate and coach share pointed comments to the media about you immediately after the final loss... especially in a city filled with rabid fans with a history of less-than-stellar or sane responses to turmoil.

It was never really reasonable for Simmons to play another season/game in Philly, sans him sacrificing himself via public self-flagellation. Can you imagine the reception he'd receive at a home game at this point the first time he missed a free throw?

All this makes the situation pretty close to unprecedented, right? Has there ever been a sustained holdout for a guy not up for a new contract?

I think Harden missed a couple of days or something just last season... before going through the motions half-heartedly for a few games. Honestly, I'm not really sure which angle is worse? Just skip out entirely or play half-ass intentionally.



[Note: It'll be interesting to see if this affects the next CBA. Will it become a big issue.... and push other more relevant issues to the side as a result?]

[Coolbreeze44]

"The structure of Ben Simmons' contract may embolden him in his plans to hold out from the Sixers, Marc Stein of Substack writes in his latest newsletter. As Stein explains, Simmons received 25% of his 2021/22 salary on August 1 and will receive another 25% on October 1, meaning he'll already have earned half of his $33MM salary for the season by the time the preseason starts."

Some added context for those that believe there's even a chance Simmons eventually reports to the Sixers. I didn't see it happening before and nothing has changed to make me think otherwise.

He will be subject to fines for not coming in. I'm not sure of the numbers, but I remember them being fairly punitive

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

"The structure of Ben Simmons' contract may embolden him in his plans to hold out from the Sixers, Marc Stein of Substack writes in his latest newsletter. As Stein explains, Simmons received 25% of his 2021/22 salary on August 1 and will receive another 25% on October 1, meaning he'll already have earned half of his $33MM salary for the season by the time the preseason starts."

Some added context for those that believe there's even a chance Simmons eventually reports to the Sixers. I didn't see it happening before and nothing has changed to make me think otherwise.

He will be subject to fines for not coming in. I'm not sure of the numbers, but I remember them being fairly punitive

The Sixers can fine Simmons approximately $228,000 per game that he misses during his holdout, but those fines won't hit until November. Not to mention, I'm not sure fining Simmons is something Philadelphia should do if they want to keep the situation from growing even more tumultuous. The quieter, the better if you're looking at this from the Sixers' perspective. Like I said earlier this week, Simmons holding out isn't the worst thing he could do. He could indeed report with a bad attitude and put more fuel on the fire. That wouldn't benefit the Sixers whatsoever.