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Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:27 pm
by Wolvesfan21
Q12543 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:I always thought that Brooks was not very good defensively while his brother was legit. I guess they are considered identical here. Same with KAT, but of course KAT is supreme on offense.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezbr01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01.html
Career defensive rating.
KAT - 108
Brook - 108
Robin - 109
B-ball reference is not the best place to get D-rating from. It's not the same as the D-rtg on NBA.com and other stat sites that tells us how many points per 100 possessions a team gives up when Player A is on the floor. B-ball reference mixes in individual defensive stats like defensive rebounds and blocks as well. KAT (and Dieng as well) do well in the box score defensive metrics, which makes them look better on defense than they really are when it comes to the b-ball reference Drtg.
Brook is probably around a career Drtng of 107 vs. KAT's 112 or so. In fact, Brook's worst years in Drtg are equivalent to KAT's best years.
Bottom line is that this team has been near the bottom in Opponent eFG% and overall Drtg over the past 5+ years. KAT and Wiggins have BY FAR played the most minutes during that timeframe. If either of them were actually plus defenders, we wouldn't be this bad year after year. Dieng hasn't helped much either.
Q12543 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:I always thought that Brooks was not very good defensively while his brother was legit. I guess they are considered identical here. Same with KAT, but of course KAT is supreme on offense.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezbr01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01.html
Career defensive rating.
KAT - 108
Brook - 108
Robin - 109
B-ball reference is not the best place to get D-rating from. It's not the same as the D-rtg on NBA.com and other stat sites that tells us how many points per 100 possessions a team gives up when Player A is on the floor. B-ball reference mixes in individual defensive stats like defensive rebounds and blocks as well. KAT (and Dieng as well) do well in the box score defensive metrics, which makes them look better on defense than they really are when it comes to the b-ball reference Drtg.
Brook is probably around a career Drtng of 107 vs. KAT's 112 or so. In fact, Brook's worst years in Drtg are equivalent to KAT's best years.
Bottom line is that this team has been near the bottom in Opponent eFG% and overall Drtg over the past 5+ years. KAT and Wiggins have BY FAR played the most minutes during that timeframe. If either of them were actually plus defenders, we wouldn't be this bad year after year. Dieng hasn't helped much either.
According to NBA.com if we go with full season stats, exclude this season (I saw KAT as high as 102 on basketball reference a week and a half ago, now he could be as low as 114 currently.)
KAT career drtg per NBA.com is 110.2.
Brook prior to Milwaukee is 107.5. Throw out seasons with 5 games played, 17 games played.
So approximately what I would expect.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:38 pm
by Monster
CoolBreeze44 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:I always thought that Brooks was not very good defensively while his brother was legit. I guess they are considered identical here. Same with KAT, but of course KAT is supreme on offense.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezbr01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01.html
Career defensive rating.
KAT - 108
Brook - 108
Robin - 109
Tell the whole story. This year Brook is 101, and last year he was 103. This is his time with Milwaukee.
I imagine KAT would be 101 there as well. Or you disagree? Obviously having other stud defenders makes the difference. Brook didn't become a stud when he showed up on Wisconsin hard courts. lol
Wolves, I'm just saying I watch every Bucks game, therefore I'm not basing my comment on any advanced stat. But what I can tell you is Lopez along with Giannis anchors that defense. And it might be the best defense in the league. KAT does not give the Wolves what Brook gives the Bucks on defense, not even close.
Hypothetically putting in KAT on the Bucks instead of Brook makes their defense worse you think? I don't think Brook is that much different than KAT on defense, maybe he is slightly better. Giannis makes that defense roll along with solid other players.
Yeah I do. Brook doesn't get pushed around like KAT does. The Bucks would be better with KAT obviously, but not on defense.
It would be interesting to see how Brook Lopez progressed as a defender during his career statistically. He has been mostly a below average rebounder as a center especially for his size and fit TCH in terms of per minute stats. He has mostly had pretty good block numbers. The Bucks are the first time he hasn't had been a top option on offense...maybe ever. His blocks per minute are at the highest level of his career and his steal numbers are up at the high point of his career. It's not a huge thing by any means but he played around 24mpg in 74 games for the Lakers the season before he went to the Bucks and the Lakers weren't better defensively after he was gone.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:54 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
The other issue with KAT defensively is that even if he does buckle down and get better on that end, he is so valuable on offense that he can't afford foul trouble or even exert too much energy on that end. So even without his defensive positioning issues, he still is a bit capped out on how good defensively he can be given his role on the other end of the court. This is why some advocate he should play PF instead of C.
Practically speaking though, KAT isn't going anywhere this offseason, no matter how poorly we perform. However, I think due to the position he plays and his primary weakness as a defender makes it nearly impossible to build anything but a moderately decent playoff team around him at best.
I guess one approach would be to just seek to entertain and go all-out for ball handlers and shooters to try to build a top 5 offensive team and accept the fact that the only way we win is by out-gunning teams.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:03 pm
by crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]
You can build a decent defense around guys like jokic or lopez because they do something kat and dieng cant do, stand their ground.
Jokic is a bad individual defender, so he isnt going to jump around for blocked shots. Hes a 7fter, all he does is put his arms up and put his body in the way. I think if kat or dieng just did that, it woukd be a huge improvement for them.
Just wall up. Just wall up. They don't make the spectacular block, but they also dont give up easy looks at the rim.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:30 pm
by Wolvesfan21
I think the Wolves could be good on defense if we draft a Giannis.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:57 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
crazy-canuck wrote:You can build a decent defense around guys like jokic or lopez because they do something kat and dieng cant do, stand their ground.
Jokic is a bad individual defender, so he isnt going to jump around for blocked shots. Hes a 7fter, all he does is put his arms up and put his body in the way. I think if kat or dieng just did that, it woukd be a huge improvement for them.
Just wall up. Just wall up. They don't make the spectacular block, but they also dont give up easy looks at the rim.
Agreed. Marc Gasol hasn't left his feet since the 90s. One of the best defensive Centers in the game. The other issue, as mentioned previously, is that these guys don't get easily moved around. So when someone puts a shoulder into them, they are solid. When Dieng gets a shoulder put into him, it's as if a cannon ball just hit him in the gut and he's blown backwards 20 feet.
(And with Jokic, it helps he's playing next to Milsap. That guy is REALLY good defensively).
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:30 pm
by Lipoli390
kekgeek1 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:lipoli390 wrote:A lot of the elite teams in the League this season don't have starting centers who are particularly good defensively. The Clippers' Zubac is big, but not particularly good defensively unless your dumb enough (like Wolves players last night) to dribble right at him and then stop in front of him to launch an awkward jump shot rather than dribbling past him or taking a step-back jumper. The Bucks' Brook Lopez isn't much of a defender. Neither Bam nor Leonard is a particularly good interior defender for the Heat. The Celtics Kanter isn't known for his defense. I wouldn't call Jokic a particularly good defender. What all those teams have are very good defenders at the wing and/or PG positions. And they play well defensively as a team. KAT isn't the problem. He's part of the solution. Trading KAT would be in line with the boneheaded tradition of the Wolves history of front office follies. It's the job of the Wolves front office to find and keep the level of talent and the right mix of players to put around KAT. Right now, he needs three things:
1. He needs an all-star caliber wing or PG who can hand the ball like it's on a string and create shots for himself and others. Wiggins isn't that guy. While he's improved his handle this season, it's still shaky and far short of what we need. And he isn't particularly good at creating for others.
2. KAT also needs a really good 3-point shooter or two around him. Right now, there's no one.
3. Finally, KAT needs an interior big who can defend and block shots to help out the team's interior defense and mitigate KAT's defensive weakness.
The key and hard part will be #1. But the the front office needs to find that player either on the roster via development or externally through the draft, trade or free-agency. McHale and Flip blew their chance of building a sustainable contender around KG when they lost patience with Chauncey Billups and let him go in favor of the aging, injury-prone alternative. And they blew it other times by failing to draft the right player, one of which might have been Josh Howard instead of Ebi. Trading KAT would be dumb and an act of failure. It's time that we had a smart front office making savvy decisions. Whether we have that in Rosas an his minions remains to be seen.
Lip, I have to disagree with some of this. Defense is played from the inside out. KAT is absolutely a big reason we are so poor defensively. In my opinion his defense keeps him from being a special player even though he is ridiculous on offense. If KAT was really that great, he would be able to take what we have and get this team into the playoffs. But he's not at that level. And you're wrong about Brook Lopez. He cleans up most of what penetrates the Bucks perimeter defense. He's a big reason the Bucks are so good defensively.
I was just going to say this. I'm not saying I disagree with your bullet points but on the individual defenders. Brook Lopez was 5th in NBA at being a rim protector and #2 as a starter and Bam is getting buzz as defensive player of the year and is set up to make all defensive team.
Big difference also with guys you mentioned outside of Jokic is the wolves are built around Kat unlike those other guys
It doesn't matter who you're built around. The question is whether you can be an elite team with a mediocre defensive center and the answer is yes. Book's defensive stats have to be considered in the context of the entire team, which includes a great wing defender in Giannis. I haven't looked, but I would bet that Brook's defensive stats are much better now than back when he was with the Nets. Jokic is a pretty poor defender. Kanter is a poor defender. Bam suddenly looks good defensively because he's surrounded by really good defenders like Jimmy Butler. Nevertheless, I recognize that our interior defense needs to improve, which is why I've been advocating for adding a really good defensive big to our roster and rotation. I also think KAT can still improve defensively as I believe Brook did over his career.
But in the end, defense is the sum total of the defensive talent/effort of all players and how well they play together. Covington isn't the defensive player he was last season with us before his knee injury. I'm not sure why, but that's the reality. And that hurts a lot.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:37 pm
by Coolbreeze44
The Wolves need to learn how to draft guys like Donte Divencenzo. He was drafted 17th overall and I would trade two Culvers for him.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:13 pm
by Lipoli390
CoolBreeze44 wrote:The Wolves need to learn how to draft guys like Donte Divencenzo. He was drafted 17th overall and I would trade two Culvers for him.
Absolutely right, Cool!! There's no substitute for having a savvy/smart organization with high quality scouts and smart executives with good judgment in making draft decisions. How about just staying at #11 last season and drafting Tyler Herro while using Saric to trade for another asset of value? I would have taken the Pelicans up on their offer to swap picks in exchange for Covington and then taken Garland. So far, Garland has been underwhelming with Cleveland. But I still see him becoming an excellent PG. In retrospect, those on this Board who advocated for standing pat and taking Herro were right. Trading up for Culver seemed like a bad idea to me at the time and I've seen nothing from Culver thus far to change my mind.
Re: Next Moves for the Wolves
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:20 pm
by Lipoli390
Q12543 wrote:The other issue with KAT defensively is that even if he does buckle down and get better on that end, he is so valuable on offense that he can't afford foul trouble or even exert too much energy on that end. So even without his defensive positioning issues, he still is a bit capped out on how good defensively he can be given his role on the other end of the court. This is why some advocate he should play PF instead of C.
Practically speaking though, KAT isn't going anywhere this offseason, no matter how poorly we perform. However, I think due to the position he plays and his primary weakness as a defender makes it nearly impossible to build anything but a moderately decent playoff team around him at best.
I guess one approach would be to just seek to entertain and go all-out for ball handlers and shooters to try to build a top 5 offensive team and accept the fact that the only way we win is by out-gunning teams.
I disagree with your conclusion that we can't be more than a moderately decent playoff team around KAT. Add an elite two-way wing like Giannis, Kawhi, or Paul George and the Wolves could become a championship contender with KAT. The same result if, in the alternative, the Wolves would move KAT to PF and add a Rudy Gobert equivalent. By the way, none of the players I mentioned were top 5 picks. The Wolves, like any team aspiring to contend for a championship, needs two all-stars in their prime. Right now, we have only one. For the Wolves, the other allstar needs to be an excellent defender - although I think this team would be a contender even if our other star were the defensively-challenged James Harden.