Next Moves for the Wolves

[Lipoli390]

At 5-3, the Wolves are off to a surprisingly good start. One more bad bounce in the games against the Nets and Warriors would have left the Wolves at 3-5. But credit the Wolves players for their gritty play and the coaching staff for implementing a smarter system that fits today's NBA. The 5-3 record isn't a fluke, but I'm not yet convinced that the Wolves will end up contending for a playoff position. A lot hinges on whether Wiggins continues to play the way he has so far this season. If so, then the Wolves should be in the running for the 7th or 8th seed.

Other than the excellent improved play of Wiggins and better coaching, I'd point to the following as the main reasons for the success of the Wolves so far this season:

1. The play of Okogie. He continues to display the excellent defense, rebounding and hustle we saw last season (but slightly better), while improving significantly on the offensive end. He's somewhat unique defensively in that he plays smothering on-ball defense while also getting steals. A lot of ball-thieves like Corley Brewer aren't particularly good on-ball defenders. Offensively, Okogie's improvement includes scoring more efficiently and playing with far more control. Playing smarter and with far more control, Okogie's has been finishing shots on dribble penetration must more consistently that last season. He continues to display pretty impressive passing ability, which I noticed and mention last season. His perimeter shooting remains problematic, but that's the only thing that still seems off track in his game and it's something I think he can and will remedy.

2. The health of Covington and Teague. Obviously, we're a much better team with Covington playing than we are without him. The team really suffered when Robert went down last season and his return has made a difference this season, especially as he has gotten his legs and rhythm back. Teague has played well for the most part so far this season. Other than his recent illness, he's been physically healthy. Moreover, he's benefitting from the coaching staff who have installed a system premised on ball movement, which mitigates Teague's tendency to hold the ball too long.

3. The additions of Napier, Layman, Vonleh and Graham. All four of these guys have made significant positive contributions so far this season - Napier and Layman more than the other two. I really like Napier's feisty style of play and the way he runs the offense. He appears to have a high basketball IQ and shows leadership at the PG position. I'm not suggesting that Napier or any of the other three is more than a good backup, but they've been nice additions who have helped improve the team.

In spite of the Wolves improvement and surprisingly good start that could result in a 7th or 8th seed, this teams does not look to me like it is on track to become a contender. We need to get a better sense of what we have in Culver and Nowell. The development of one or both of these (especially Culver) will be really important to how far this team can go over the long haul. Who we add, through next year's draft, trades or free agency will be extremely important as well.

A question that comes to mind is this - what if anything should the Wolves front office/coaching staff do between now and next summer to further the goal of making this team a championship contender down the road? Here are a few thoughts:

1. Trade Teague for a young high-upside player and/or future draft pick. I don't have any specific ideas at this point, but at age 31 with an expiring contract, I don't see Teague as a long-term fit for this team. Given that he's healthy and playing fairly well, this is probably the time to move him. If nothing else, trading Teague would open the door to more playing time for Culver at the point. I think the long-term potential of this team depends a lot on Culver's development and whether he can flourish at the PG position. Moving Teague will allow more opportunity for Culver to develop in the crucible of actual game play. Do the Warriors really want to hold onto D. Russell? The Warriors might be thinking about a re-tool before Klay and Steph return next season. Dealing Teague and next year's first round pick for Russell would give the Warriors another draft asset next summer along with some significant cap relief. So maybe that's a possibility.

2. Allocate more playing time to Vonleh, which might mean starting him instead of Graham. I like the little we've seen from Vonleh so far. While we have him, we should take every opportunity to see what he's got and how he fits with this team.

3. Find minutes for Nowell and Martin. This team still needs more 3-point shooting and these two young players could potentially help in that area. I like the way Martin played in Summer League and Nowell was an amazingly efficient scorer in college.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I like the idea of trading Teague, but just not sure they can realistically get anything. May be some team in the playoff hunt will lose their PG to injury later in the year and they will make a play for Teague.

And the Vonleh-Graham tradeoff makes sense to me. KAT, Vonleh, and RoCo suddenly makes us a pretty big, long, and strong front line and hopefully better defensively. And how much do we really lose on offense by swapping out Graham for Vonleh?

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Shooting.

Outside of washington, i don't think weve played a good game. We are grinding out games and finding ways to win.

Kat and wiggs have yet to sync in the same game.

With kat and wiggs showing the ability to find an open man, we need to surround them eith shooters.

[Lipoli390]

I like the idea of trading Teague, but just not sure they can realistically get anything. May be some team in the playoff hunt will lose their PG to injury later in the year and they will make a play for Teague.

And the Vonleh-Graham tradeoff makes sense to me. KAT, Vonleh, and RoCo suddenly makes us a pretty big, long, and strong front line and hopefully better defensively. And how much do we really lose on offense by swapping out Graham for Vonleh?

Q - I think you're right on trading Teague. As noted, the key will be a team in the playoff hunt that loses their #1 PG to injury for a long stretch if not the rest of the season. Or perhaps the Hornets will put themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt and want to supplement Rozier at the PG position. Perhaps we could deal Teague for Biyambo and Cleveland's 2020 2nd round pick, which will likely be in the 30-35 range.

[Wolvesfan21]

Shooting.

Outside of washington, i don't think weve played a good game. We are grinding out games and finding ways to win.

Kat and wiggs have yet to sync in the same game.

With kat and wiggs showing the ability to find an open man, we need to surround them eith shooters.

We need more Covingtons. Elite defenders with great 3 point shooting. Maybe Culver can be that plus more?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Shooting.

Outside of washington, i don't think weve played a good game. We are grinding out games and finding ways to win.

Kat and wiggs have yet to sync in the same game.

With kat and wiggs showing the ability to find an open man, we need to surround them eith shooters.

We need more Covingtons. Elite defenders with great 3 point shooting. Maybe Culver can be that plus more?

Yup, it's really the same thing we've needed since Al Jefferson, then Kevin Love, and now KAT came into the picture. We have had really good bigs that could carry an offense to a large degree, yet weren't the best defenders. They need space to operate and guys that can defend the perimeter.

It's stunning to me how this franchise has failed time and again to identify and develop shooters and defenders despite desperately needing this player profile for over 10 years now.

RoCo is the PERFECT role player for us. Too bad he's 29 years old.

[bleedspeed]

Trade for DLO and build from there. I would try and keep Wiggins at this point.

[Wolvesfan21]

Shooting.

Outside of washington, i don't think weve played a good game. We are grinding out games and finding ways to win.

Kat and wiggs have yet to sync in the same game.

With kat and wiggs showing the ability to find an open man, we need to surround them eith shooters.

We need more Covingtons. Elite defenders with great 3 point shooting. Maybe Culver can be that plus more?

Yup, it's really the same thing we've needed since Al Jefferson, then Kevin Love, and now KAT came into the picture. We have had really good bigs that could carry an offense to a large degree, yet weren't the best defenders. They need space to operate and guys that can defend the perimeter.

It's stunning to me how this franchise has failed time and again to identify and develop shooters and defenders despite desperately needing this player profile for over 10 years now.

RoCo is the PERFECT role player for us. Too bad he's 29 years old.

I think he has a solid 4-5 years still, his game isn't built tremendously around athleticism. If he even slows down a bit, it'll be OK. He can still defend well which is very much mental and instinctive then knock down the 3. For other guys like a Russell Westbrook it can be much more detrimental, his game is highly based on athleticism and he doesn't have size, so he needs some burst to get to the rim. If that extra burst he has over others go his game will be awful, because he can't shoot and is small on defense.

[mjs34]

Shooting.

Outside of washington, i don't think weve played a good game. We are grinding out games and finding ways to win.

Kat and wiggs have yet to sync in the same game.

With kat and wiggs showing the ability to find an open man, we need to surround them eith shooters.

We need more Covingtons. Elite defenders with great 3 point shooting. Maybe Culver can be that plus more?

Yup, it's really the same thing we've needed since Al Jefferson, then Kevin Love, and now KAT came into the picture. We have had really good bigs that could carry an offense to a large degree, yet weren't the best defenders. They need space to operate and guys that can defend the perimeter.

It's stunning to me how this franchise has failed time and again to identify and develop shooters and defenders despite desperately needing this player profile for over 10 years now.

RoCo is the PERFECT role player for us. Too bad he's 29 years old.

I think he has a solid 4-5 years still, his game isn't built tremendously around athleticism. If he even slows down a bit, it'll be OK. He can still defend well which is very much mental and instinctive then knock down the 3. For other guys like a Russell Westbrook it can be much more detrimental, his game is highly based on athleticism and he doesn't have size, so he needs some burst to get to the rim. If that extra burst he has over others go his game will be awful, because he can't shoot and is small on defense.

I disagree. The guy missed how many games last year due to bumping knees with another player? I think Cov and the wolves know there is a major issue with the knee still. Sounds like a typical lack of due diligence on the wolves part during the Butler trade, AGAIN!

[Lipoli390]

Shooting.

Outside of washington, i don't think weve played a good game. We are grinding out games and finding ways to win.

Kat and wiggs have yet to sync in the same game.

With kat and wiggs showing the ability to find an open man, we need to surround them eith shooters.

We need more Covingtons. Elite defenders with great 3 point shooting. Maybe Culver can be that plus more?

Yup, it's really the same thing we've needed since Al Jefferson, then Kevin Love, and now KAT came into the picture. We have had really good bigs that could carry an offense to a large degree, yet weren't the best defenders. They need space to operate and guys that can defend the perimeter.

It's stunning to me how this franchise has failed time and again to identify and develop shooters and defenders despite desperately needing this player profile for over 10 years now.

RoCo is the PERFECT role player for us. Too bad he's 29 years old.

I don't look at it as a failure to identify and develop shooters and defenders. The Wolves lack of 3-point shooters is the sum total of conscious front office choices when making player-personnel decisions in drafts, free agency and trades. Identifying shooters in the draft or among free agents and possible trade targets isn't difficult. We all generally know who they are. Good perimeter shooting prospects in college shoot well in college before being drafted. We've seen them over the years and repeatedly passed on opportunities to draft or sign them undrafted, including the following with their last college season's 3-point and free throw percentages in parenthesis): Steph Curry (38.7%/87.6%), Buddy Hield (45.7%/88%), Jamaal Murray (40.8%/78.3%), Tyler Herro (35.5%, 93.5%), and Kendrick 39.4%/83.8%). There are many others with similarly impressive college perimeter and free-throw shooting stats we could have drafted in the first or second rounds or signed as free agents. Instead we've drafted prospects like Flynn (31.7%/78.6%), Dunn (37.2%/69.5%), Wiggins 34.1%/77.5%), and Culver (30.4%/70.7%) who were not known as or expected to be particularly good 3-point shooters based on their stats or scouting evaluations. So it's no wonder the Wolves haven't been a good 3-point shooting team over the years.

(Note: I look at a combination of 3-point and free-throw shooting to predict NBA 3-point shooting accuracy. Volume of attempts is also in important factor. Although Dunn's 3-point average in college seems positive, it was on a low volume and was accompanied by a troublingly low free-throw percentage. Meanwhile, scouting reports consistently questioned his 3-point shooting.)

Things might be changing with our new front office regime, although drafting Culver doesn't inspire confidence. But they did draft Nowell in the 2nd round and signed Kelan Martin as an undrafted free agent. Both showed promise as 3-point shooters in college. Martin averaged 36.4% from behind the college arc on a relatively high volume of attempts while averaging 84.4% from the free throw line. Nowell averaged 44% from behind the arc on a pretty low volume of attempts and 78% from the free throw line. He was a terrific mid-range shooter in college as well. Now, in a rebuilding season, our coaching staff needs to give them ample opportunity to play.

As for the Wolves defensive woes, it can also be traced to obviously poor personnel decisions. Signing guys like Teague and Crawford are two good examples. We didn't keep Dunn long enough to get the benefit of his defensive chops. But to Thibs' credit, he drafted Okogie and acquired Covington. Culver is expected to be a good defender as well. As you said, it's unfortunate that Covington is 29 years old. But there's hope with Okogie and Culver as well as the rebirth of Wiggins.

We need to add a shot-blocking interior defender to pair with KAT in my view. And we need perimeter players in addition to Okogie who can stay in front of people. Those players are there - in the draft and free agency. It's a matter of choosing to acquire draft or sign them.