Minnesota Sports Forum

Hicks123 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:Interesting points, Tim and Monster. I note that Reddick did eventually take a 1-year deal with Philly, so there was clealry flexibility in his demands. If he took $23 million for one year in Philly and wanted $48 million for three years here (or elsewhere), it's logical to assume a 2-year offer would have split the difference...say $19 million per year. I have a difficult time concluding that Gibson at $14 million is a better deal than Reddick at $19 million. We had a huge need for a good-shooting wing off the bench, while I would argue that we already have a player similar to Gibson on our roster...Cole Aldrich. Both are offensively limited but tough players who don't get pushed around. If you look at their career per 30 numbers, Cole is clearly the better rebounder, shot blocker, assister, and stealer, while sporting a far superior TS%.


https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Taj+Gibson&player_id1_select=Taj+Gibson&player_id1=gibsota01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Cole+Aldrich&player_id2_select=Cole+Aldrich&player_id2=aldrico01&idx=players

We certainly don't know, but I sense that Thibs' familiarity with Gibson and lack of confidence in Rubio led him to some deals that are not as helpful as other potential deals would have been. As for me, I would much prefer JJ Reddick's 43% 3-point rate coming off the bench to Crawford's 35% rate that we are saddled with. I would argue that Tyus, JJ, Belly and Cole backing up Ricky, Wig, Butler, Gorgui and KAT would have put us in the conversation for a top seed, and would have been a much stronger rotation than the one we enter the season with.

LST, I typically find your insight to be fantastic. But the fact that you even put Cole Aldrich and Taj Gibson in the same stratosphere as players means 1 of 2 things has happened over the past week: 1) You went completely senile; 2) It has been a while since you have seen either Taj or Cole play basketball. While it is great to play the "per 30" numbers, we all know that the numbers for limited, part-time players don't transfer out to similar production over the course of 30 minutes. Cole is a HORRIBLE basketball player....we could clearly see it last season. When you say "both are offensively limited", again, this is not a fair statement at all to Taj. I agree with the premise (as Taj will never be confused as a top offensive player), but Taj's limitations still allow him to be a servicable scorer when needed. With Cole, he is simply not capable of anything remotely close to offensive capability. There is a difference between being a capable scorer and being a liability as a scorer. Taj is clearly a capable scorer....and I will let everyone guess who the liability is.

And frankly, for every decent defensive play I saw Cole make a year ago, it was mixed with 3-4 other horrendous plays from him as well. He has little in the way of basketball IQ, and seems easy fooled and confused on the court. You won't see that from Taj this season.

I do believe that Aldrich is a worthwhile basketball player (he wasn't as bad as he showed in limited mins last year) I agree he isn't anywhere the same tier as Gibson. In addition Ginson is a much much much more versatile player in every way and I think just looking at some basic stats doesn't do Gibson justice.

Also on Redick one issue that people tend to forget about him is if you want to get the most out of him you need to cater the offense to him to some extent. If you just want him basically standing around the 3 point line waiting for someone to find him that's great but to get real value for that contract he wanted you better do more than that. He is extremely good at what he does but be is a guy that benefits from finding his spots moving all over the place. That can be a positive but it could affect what you want to do offensively. A lot of those type shooters need some sort of framework to do their best work. I'm guessing we will see a bit more value from Korver this year for the Cavs with a year to get more comfortable. A guy like Chase I hesitate even more about bringing him in for that reason because it seems to take him at least 20 games to fit in and find his spots on a new team or system. That's not good when he may not even play much if he signs somewhere. Remember I am saying all this stuff and I am probably the biggest Redick fan on the board and was less adverse to signing him here than many.

Hicks123 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:Interesting points, Tim and Monster. I note that Reddick did eventually take a 1-year deal with Philly, so there was clealry flexibility in his demands. If he took $23 million for one year in Philly and wanted $48 million for three years here (or elsewhere), it's logical to assume a 2-year offer would have split the difference...say $19 million per year. I have a difficult time concluding that Gibson at $14 million is a better deal than Reddick at $19 million. We had a huge need for a good-shooting wing off the bench, while I would argue that we already have a player similar to Gibson on our roster...Cole Aldrich. Both are offensively limited but tough players who don't get pushed around. If you look at their career per 30 numbers, Cole is clearly the better rebounder, shot blocker, assister, and stealer, while sporting a far superior TS%.


https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Taj+Gibson&player_id1_select=Taj+Gibson&player_id1=gibsota01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Cole+Aldrich&player_id2_select=Cole+Aldrich&player_id2=aldrico01&idx=players

We certainly don't know, but I sense that Thibs' familiarity with Gibson and lack of confidence in Rubio led him to some deals that are not as helpful as other potential deals would have been. As for me, I would much prefer JJ Reddick's 43% 3-point rate coming off the bench to Crawford's 35% rate that we are saddled with. I would argue that Tyus, JJ, Belly and Cole backing up Ricky, Wig, Butler, Gorgui and KAT would have put us in the conversation for a top seed, and would have been a much stronger rotation than the one we enter the season with.

LST, I typically find your insight to be fantastic. But the fact that you even put Cole Aldrich and Taj Gibson in the same stratosphere as players means 1 of 2 things has happened over the past week: 1) You went completely senile; 2) It has been a while since you have seen either Taj or Cole play basketball. While it is great to play the "per 30" numbers, we all know that the numbers for limited, part-time players don't transfer out to similar production over the course of 30 minutes. Cole is a HORRIBLE basketball player....we could clearly see it last season. When you say "both are offensively limited", again, this is not a fair statement at all to Taj. I agree with the premise (as Taj will never be confused as a top offensive player), but Taj's limitations still allow him to be a servicable scorer when needed. With Cole, he is simply not capable of anything remotely close to offensive capability. There is a difference between being a capable scorer and being a liability as a scorer. Taj is clearly a capable scorer....and I will let everyone guess who the liability is.

And frankly, for every decent defensive play I saw Cole make a year ago, it was mixed with 3-4 other horrendous plays from him as well. He has little in the way of basketball IQ, and seems easy fooled and confused on the court. You won't see that from Taj this season.

You're too kind, Hicks...many would say I went completely senile years ago :).

We'll have to disagree on the relative merits of Aldrich and Gibson. I've always found Gibson to be an overrated player, perhaps because he is such a hardnosed and good guy and beloved by fans and the media...his stats just don't seem worthy of the reputation. I know the limitations of per 36 numbers, and yet they are an accurate representation of production per minute. And the numbers don't lie...Cole is a more productive rebounder, shot blocker, ball stealer, and assister per minute than Gibson (not to mention having the better eFG%) Gibson is the better scorer, but are we really looking for either of these guys to be scorers with the elite scorers playing next to them? No, just rebound, play tough defense and guard the rim...and the numbers say Cole is no slouch in those areas. And while per 36 numbers can be misleading, I think per minute production is more valid with a coach like Thibs who is not going to play his bench many minutes. You want to know they are going to provide maximum production in those few minutes of court time they
are given.

Now, if you're making strictly an eye test comparison, I would be more inclined to agree...Gibson is the far smoother athlete and just looks like a better player. But I think you have to see Cole in person to appreciate what he brings to a team. The guy is tough, holds his position well, and just doesn't get pushed around by anyone. There were some remarkable moments last season in games I attended when Cole, Belly, Muhammad and Dunn were on the court together...the game deteriorated into a barroom brawl. I would shake my head at the offensive clumsiness and ineptness, but when the brawlers returned to the bench I realized that they had played even with the opponent...just what I want my bench to do when you have terrific starters like we do.

Gibson will be fine, but I still think the dollars spent on him could have been put to better use on a shooter like Reddick.

Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

monsterpile wrote:Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

Interesting news. I don't see Noel getting more than around $60 million over 4 years. Would you rather have Taj at $14 million per year for 2 years or Noel at $15 million per year for 4 years?

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

Interesting news. I don't see Noel getting more than around $60 million over 4 years. Would you rather have Taj at $14 million per year for 2 years or Noel at $15 million per year for 4 years?

That's a tough one, but I'm going with Gibson because of the shorter deal and experience and toughness he brings. Something this team sorely lacked last season.

KiwiMatt wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

Interesting news. I don't see Noel getting more than around $60 million over 4 years. Would you rather have Taj at $14 million per year for 2 years or Noel at $15 million per year for 4 years?

That's a tough one, but I'm going with Gibson because of the shorter deal and experience and toughness he brings. Something this team sorely lacked last season.

The problem with Noel (in addition to being an injury risk) is that at this point he has been really only effective as a center and the Wolves (and some other teams) don't need another of those. Gibson is a legit NBA PF and we don't have one of those outside of Belly who is at best a fringe starter. On top of that Gibson can play with any of the Wolves bigs. I'm not crying over not getting Noel even if he ends up with a really good contract.

monsterpile wrote:

KiwiMatt wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

Interesting news. I don't see Noel getting more than around $60 million over 4 years. Would you rather have Taj at $14 million per year for 2 years or Noel at $15 million per year for 4 years?

That's a tough one, but I'm going with Gibson because of the shorter deal and experience and toughness he brings. Something this team sorely lacked last season.

The problem with Noel (in addition to being an injury risk) is that at this point he has been really only effective as a center and the Wolves (and some other teams) don't need another of those. Gibson is a legit NBA PF and we don't have one of those outside of Belly who is at best a fringe starter. On top of that Gibson can play with any of the Wolves bigs. I'm not crying over not getting Noel even if he ends up with a really good contract.

Noel is restricted. Whatever he gets is not gonna be close to what we would have had to offer to actually get him.

https://twitter.com/bobbymarks42/status/887698737639960576

How has the FA market changed in a year? Last year 60 players were signed with cap space. This year? Only 22 (not including 2nd's) so far.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

Interesting news. I don't see Noel getting more than around $60 million over 4 years. Would you rather have Taj at $14 million per year for 2 years or Noel at $15 million per year for 4 years?

Lip we get it bud, You don't like what taj got paid..

Squishypoo wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Manu is finalizing a deal to go back to the Spurs

Chalmers is getting a partially guaranteed deal to go to Memphis

The most interesting news I saw about FA today is Noel's agent said they aren't happy with the negotiations so far. I bet they aren't if they think this is 2016. If I was Dallas I don't know how much I would actually offer at this point. Is he even worth Dieng money in the market right now? My guess is they figure it out or he signs the qualifying offer and plays it out but I think that would not be smart. The cap nerds say there isn't going to be much money in 2018 either. I'm a fan of Noel, but I am not sure how much I would have paid him a few weeks ago before the cap was less and I still thought people were going to get paid decent money.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/7/18/15993264/nba-free-agency-2017-nerlens-noel-unhappy-negotiations-dallas-mavericks

Interesting news. I don't see Noel getting more than around $60 million over 4 years. Would you rather have Taj at $14 million per year for 2 years or Noel at $15 million per year for 4 years?

Lip we get it bud, You don't like what taj got paid..

Actually, YOU dont get it my friend. That wasn't a loaded question. I'd be torn. And truthfully I'd opt for Taj for the reasons given by Monster. I've never been a big Noel fan. As you should know from my many posts, i don't like injury-prone or soft players. Noel is both even though he's really talented and young. Committing 4 years to Noel even at that price would be too much for me. And we'd still be capped out in our ability to get a rotation wing, which was my reason for not liking the Taj signing.

Oh, and you probably know i dont like giving big contracts to one-way players. Hard to think of anyone as one-way as Noel.