Minnesota Sports Forum

60WinTim wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 2:13 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 1:54 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 1:47 pm

Ant was a +28 yesterday, partly because Rudy stayed out a good chunk of the third quarter. The minutes Ant plays with Randle, Reid, and either Shannon or Rob absolutely tanks his on off numbers because it's a layup line without Rudy on the court. That layup line is a result mostly of Naz and Randle inability to defend the paint.

I agree that Ant had a terrific game last night, cypress, but I'm trying to follow your logic. It seems like your first sentence should say "despite" Rudy missing much of the 3rd quarter instead of "because". Or am I being obtuse in missing the point (wouldn't be the first time!)?

Obtuse. "staying out" meant "staying out on the court". And it is a valid point that the rotations have ANT playing in weaker lineups, thus affecting his on/off numbers. I think we are making a mountain out of a mole hill...

Haha we probably are but then again this a dedicated fan forum in the remote corners of the Internet....that's kind of our thing

Honestly I fans just really like figuring out just how good "their guy" is.

Personally when it's all said and done, I am willing to lean into the consensus opinion from so called experts who watch more leauge wide basketball then I do. That opinion would put Ant somewhere between the 8th and 5th best player in the league

I'm just going to embrace what Ant is versus what I wish he could be. We saw this play out in the offseason thread on what Ant could improve upon and in it was an inventory of everyone's hopes and dreams of the ideal basketball player. He needs to improve his finishing, his mid-range game, his stamina, his defense, his focus, his passing, his IQ, his diet, his ball handling, etc., etc.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 2:13 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 1:54 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 1:47 pm

Ant was a +28 yesterday, partly because Rudy stayed out a good chunk of the third quarter. The minutes Ant plays with Randle, Reid, and either Shannon or Rob absolutely tanks his on off numbers because it's a layup line without Rudy on the court. That layup line is a result mostly of Naz and Randle inability to defend the paint.

I agree that Ant had a terrific game last night, cypress, but I'm trying to follow your logic. It seems like your first sentence should say "despite" Rudy missing much of the 3rd quarter instead of "because". Or am I being obtuse in missing the point (wouldn't be the first time!)?

Obtuse. "staying out" meant "staying out on the court". And it is a valid point that the rotations have ANT playing in weaker lineups, thus affecting his on/off numbers. I think we are making a mountain out of a mole hill...

Hahaha...thanks Tim! Yeah, I interpreted "out" as meaning "not playing"...like, Jokic is going to be "out" at least 4 weeks. But I get it now. My apologies to rapsuperstar.

I still think we tie ourselves up in knots here sometimes to justify some of Ant's relatively poor numbers. He ranks 9th on the team in on/off out of 11 rotation players (thank goodness for Rob and TJ, or our star player might be last!), and the justification given is that his stats are punished because he plays in weaker lineups. But if you look at 2-man lineup data, the four players he is on the court with the most are Ju, Rudy, Donte and Jaden. And those four players have the best on/off numbers on the team among players with more than 300 minutes. He's only played 115 minutes with Shannon, and 67 with Rob. If you look at 5-man lineup data, he has played 310 minutes with Rudy, Ju, Donte and Jaden (no surprise). He's only played 49 minutes with his second most frequent lineup (Mike, Ju, Naz and Clark). Playing so many minutes with our 4 best on/off guys actually makes Ant's poor on/off number just a little better, and he has a positive net rating with each of the 4. But his net rating with each of the 4 is worse than almost every other rotation player when paired with the Top 4. Example: his 5.1 positive rating when paired with Rudy looks good at first glance, until you look deeper and see that every other rotation player other than Naz has a better net rating when paired with Rudy!

If someone can show data that supports the justification that Ant's numbers suffer because of all the minutes he plays with weaker lineups, I'm willing to be convinced...but I'm not seeing it. Look, like everyone else here I want to believe that Ant is our best player and consistently makes our team better because he is such a terrific high-volume efficient scorer. But the data seem to show that the deficiencies in his game (inconsistent and often lazy defense and poor passing) overpower his offensive brilliance and lead to the Wolves being outscored when he is on the court.

But as I said, I'd like to be proven wrong. Please support your assertion with data though.

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 4:11 pmlead to the Wolves being outscored when he is on the court.

What is your data to back up this claim? Either you mis-typed or you don't understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off Rating.

Once we agree on what those metrics mean, then it will be easier to have a debate about Ant's effectiveness or lack thereof.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:14 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 4:11 pmlead to the Wolves being outscored when he is on the court.

What is your data to back up this claim? Either you mis-typed or you don't understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off Rating.

Once we agree on what those metrics mean, then it will be easier to have a debate about Ant's effectiveness or lack thereof.

Good point, I'll rephrase: "lead to the Wolves performing better when he is off the court than on, and worse than anyone by this measure other than TJ and Rob".

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:22 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:14 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 4:11 pmlead to the Wolves being outscored when he is on the court.

What is your data to back up this claim? Either you mis-typed or you don't understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off Rating.

Once we agree on what those metrics mean, then it will be easier to have a debate about Ant's effectiveness or lack thereof.

Good point, I'll rephrase: "lead to the Wolves performing better when he is off the court than on, and worse than anyone by this measure other than TJ and Rob".

Randle is lifted up playing with Rudy, Naz is lifted up playing with Rudy, both are awful together without Rudy. It's very rare for Naz and Randle to be on the court together without Ant, thus those two bring Ant down with their layup line defense. What is Ant suppose to do when the other team scores on 10 consecutive baskets beating Naz over and over again when he runs out to a player and gets blown by because he is horrible at closeouts. Rudy protects the paint when Naz does this, Randle has less blocks than Mike right now. Mike has 7 blocks to Randle's 5. Who does TJ and Rob play most of their minutes with? Spoilers it's Ant with Naz and Randle and it kills his off on. That Randle and Naz pairing is also one of the bottom percentages in the league rebounding the ball, giving up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate. Ant, Randle, Naz, and and one of TJ, Clark, or Rob is often playing together with both Rudy and Jaden on the bench, playing against the other teams best players like SGA. Ant and SGA comes off the court together, and Donte, Jaden, and Rudy come in a the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters to take advantage of the other teams bench. This isn't rocket science.

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 7:03 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:22 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:14 pm

What is your data to back up this claim? Either you mis-typed or you don't understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off Rating.

Once we agree on what those metrics mean, then it will be easier to have a debate about Ant's effectiveness or lack thereof.

Good point, I'll rephrase: "lead to the Wolves performing better when he is off the court than on, and worse than anyone by this measure other than TJ and Rob".

Randle is lifted up playing with Rudy, Naz is lifted up playing with Rudy, both are awful together without Rudy. It's very rare for Naz and Randle to be on the court together without Ant, thus those two bring Ant down with their layup line defense. What is Ant suppose to do when the other team scores on 10 consecutive baskets beating Naz over and over again when he runs out to a player and gets blown by because he is horrible at closeouts. Rudy protects the paint when Naz does this, Randle has less blocks than Mike right now. Mike has 7 blocks to Randle's 5. Who does TJ and Rob play most of their minutes with? Spoilers it's Ant with Naz and Randle and it kills his off on. That Randle and Naz pairing is also one of the bottom percentages in the league rebounding the ball, giving up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate. Ant, Randle, Naz, and and one of TJ, Clark, or Rob is often playing together with both Rudy and Jaden on the bench, playing against the other teams best players like SGA. Ant and SGA comes off the court together, and Donte, Jaden, and Rudy come in a the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters to take advantage of the other teams bench. This isn't rocket science.

I think what I bolded above is one of the bigger factors. Ant's minutes more than anyone on the team overlaps with the opposing team's best players, whereas that doesn't necessarily apply to anyone else. Heck, even last night we saw Jaden sit at the end of the 2nd quarter when Chicago's best (available) players were in the game, but Finch rolled with Clark instead.

This means other players benefit from being sat when they are having an off night or the matchup isn't great or their backup is rolling. Ant will never get the benefit of this and always has to play in tight contests when the opposing team's best players are on the floor. We've seen Finch use all sorts of crunch-time lineups, but Ant is the one constant.

BTW, last season fellow All-NBA Second Teamate Jalen Brunson had similar Net Rating and On/'Off numbers to Ant's so far this season. His Net Rating was worse in fact. And Brunson's Net On-Off rating was the second worst among their top 9 players in the rotation and the worst among the starters.

Dilly hired new representation today, either a trade demand is coming or one is already in the works

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 7:03 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:22 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:14 pm

What is your data to back up this claim? Either you mis-typed or you don't understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off Rating.

Once we agree on what those metrics mean, then it will be easier to have a debate about Ant's effectiveness or lack thereof.

Good point, I'll rephrase: "lead to the Wolves performing better when he is off the court than on, and worse than anyone by this measure other than TJ and Rob".

Randle is lifted up playing with Rudy, Naz is lifted up playing with Rudy, both are awful together without Rudy. It's very rare for Naz and Randle to be on the court together without Ant, thus those two bring Ant down with their layup line defense. What is Ant suppose to do when the other team scores on 10 consecutive baskets beating Naz over and over again when he runs out to a player and gets blown by because he is horrible at closeouts. Rudy protects the paint when Naz does this, Randle has less blocks than Mike right now. Mike has 7 blocks to Randle's 5. Who does TJ and Rob play most of their minutes with? Spoilers it's Ant with Naz and Randle and it kills his off on. That Randle and Naz pairing is also one of the bottom percentages in the league rebounding the ball, giving up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate. Ant, Randle, Naz, and and one of TJ, Clark, or Rob is often playing together with both Rudy and Jaden on the bench, playing against the other teams best players like SGA. Ant and SGA comes off the court together, and Donte, Jaden, and Rudy come in a the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters to take advantage of the other teams bench. This isn't rocket science.

Rap, you're not going to get me to defend Ju's and Naz's defense...we all know our defense falls apart when Rudy leaves the court. But the results when this defensively challenged duo is out there with Ant is much worse than when they are out there the other starters. Here are the stats when Naz/Ju are out there with a third player:

Jaden: 243 minutes, 115.7 defensive rating, 8.9 net rating
Ant: 240 minutes, 115.7 defensive rating, .8 net rating
Donte: 221 minutes, 112.2 defensive rating, 9.2 net rating
Mike: 186 minutes, 112.6 defensive rating, -1.1 net rating
Bones: 111 minutes, 120.8 defensive rating (worse than Ant!), 8.8 net rating
Shannon: 91 minutes, 133.5 defensive rating!, -18.3 net rating!
Dilly: 74 minutes, 129.1 defensive rating!, -27.9 net rating!
Rudy: 22 minutes, 98.2 defensive rating!, 15.3 net rating

Takeaways:
1) It's getting more and more challenging to find combinations where Ant is better than his teammates
2) While I'm surprised that the defensive rating of Jaden, Ju and Naz is as bad as Ant, Ju and Naz, the net rating of that trio is much better than Ant, Ju and Naz.
3) Ant's net rating when out there with Ju and Naz is 8-13 points worse than the net rating of the other starters with Ju and Naz...nobody can argue that's not significant!
4) And his net rating with the two turnstiles compared to Mike's rating with them is only 2 points better (although Mike's defensive rating is 3 points better), and many of us are arguing that Mike is washed!
5) Defensive stalwart Bones Hyland has a much worse defensive rating than Ant when combined with Ju and Naz, but his overall rating is 8 points better!
6) Again, thank god for Shannon and Rob...they are the only players in the rotation that make Ant look good.

I was hoping that this deep dive into net ratings would make me feel better about Ant, but every rock we turn over makes me feel worse .

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 7:56 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 7:03 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Dec 30, 2025 6:22 pm

Good point, I'll rephrase: "lead to the Wolves performing better when he is off the court than on, and worse than anyone by this measure other than TJ and Rob".

Randle is lifted up playing with Rudy, Naz is lifted up playing with Rudy, both are awful together without Rudy. It's very rare for Naz and Randle to be on the court together without Ant, thus those two bring Ant down with their layup line defense. What is Ant suppose to do when the other team scores on 10 consecutive baskets beating Naz over and over again when he runs out to a player and gets blown by because he is horrible at closeouts. Rudy protects the paint when Naz does this, Randle has less blocks than Mike right now. Mike has 7 blocks to Randle's 5. Who does TJ and Rob play most of their minutes with? Spoilers it's Ant with Naz and Randle and it kills his off on. That Randle and Naz pairing is also one of the bottom percentages in the league rebounding the ball, giving up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate. Ant, Randle, Naz, and and one of TJ, Clark, or Rob is often playing together with both Rudy and Jaden on the bench, playing against the other teams best players like SGA. Ant and SGA comes off the court together, and Donte, Jaden, and Rudy come in a the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters to take advantage of the other teams bench. This isn't rocket science.

I think what I bolded above is one of the bigger factors. Ant's minutes more than anyone on the team overlaps with the opposing team's best players, whereas that doesn't necessarily apply to anyone else. Heck, even last night we saw Jaden sit at the end of the 2nd quarter when Chicago's best (available) players were in the game, but Finch rolled with Clark instead.

This means other players benefit from being sat when they are having an off night or the matchup isn't great or their backup is rolling. Ant will never get the benefit of this and always has to play in tight contests when the opposing team's best players are on the floor. We've seen Finch use all sorts of crunch-time lineups, but Ant is the one constant.

BTW, last season fellow All-NBA Second Teamate Jalen Brunson had similar Net Rating and On/'Off numbers to Ant's so far this season. His Net Rating was worse in fact. And Brunson's Net On-Off rating was the second worst among their top 9 players in the rotation and the worst among the starters.

Q, two rebuttals:

1) Ant is supposed to be our best player. Doesn't every coach want his best player out there against the other team's best players? I hear some claims being made that Ant is out there against great players more than guys like SGA and Jokic, but I'm not seeing any data supporting this hypothesis.
2) I love Brunson as an offensive player, but don't make me defend his defense...he's undersized, somewhat slow and lazy, and his defensive on/off is generally going to be very bad. Ant on the other hand is neither undersized or slow (but he can be lazy).

By the way, I appreciate the way guys are rallying behind Ant here...I want him to be better also. But I'm hearing a lot of theories, but not seeing the data to support the theories. Let's keep going...