Minnesota Sports Forum

Camden wrote:I'm already looking forward to a time where Miguel Sano is not a regular in the Twins lineup. He has far too many empty plate appearances for my liking and I just don't see him getting any better. He's great when he's mashing, but there are very long slumps in between that make him an easy out.

FNG wrote:Yep, and we seem to have a lot of other options now at 1b just waiting their turn. I hope Sano is aware of that. If Kirilloff starts out the season dominating AAA and Sano continues his K pace, I wouldn't mind seeing Alex at 1b once May comes around. Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer a productive Sano...but my patience is wearing thin.

I wont go into a total rant about Ks. I'll just say a strike out is just an out and old school thinking makes you think that is a bad thing. Did you know Buxton consitently hits in to more Double plays than Sano.

DId you know Sano Hard hit rate is 57.3% which means a ball that comes off his bat goes 95+ MPH. The only player with higher rate is Tatsis at 62.2

Nelson Cruz
2019 Ks 131 454 At bats 28%
2020 Ks 58 204 At bats 28%

Miguel Sano
2019 159Ks 439 ABs 36%
2020 90Ks 205 ABs 43%

Yes he strike out more but was last year anomaly due to him having Covid or is he just a less discpline hitter than Cruz. My point is hes paid to hit ball hard and far and when he does make contact he does almost better than everyone in the Majors

Sorry I lied went on a rant.

Side Note.... Looks like we have our starting line up based on todays game.

Kepler
Donaldson
Cruz
Polanco
Sano
Garver
Buxton
Simmons
Rooker

Jester1534 wrote:

Camden wrote:I'm already looking forward to a time where Miguel Sano is not a regular in the Twins lineup. He has far too many empty plate appearances for my liking and I just don't see him getting any better. He's great when he's mashing, but there are very long slumps in between that make him an easy out.

FNG wrote:Yep, and we seem to have a lot of other options now at 1b just waiting their turn. I hope Sano is aware of that. If Kirilloff starts out the season dominating AAA and Sano continues his K pace, I wouldn't mind seeing Alex at 1b once May comes around. Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer a productive Sano...but my patience is wearing thin.

I wont go into a total rant about Ks. I'll just say a strike out is just an out and old school thinking makes you think that is a bad thing. Did you know Buxton consitently hits in to more Double plays than Sano.

DId you know Sano Hard hit rate is 57.3% which means a ball that comes off his bat goes 95+ MPH. The only player with higher rate is Tatsis at 62.2

Nelson Cruz
2019 Ks 131 454 At bats 28%
2020 Ks 58 204 At bats 28%

Miguel Sano
2019 159Ks 439 ABs 36%
2020 90Ks 205 ABs 43%

Yes he strike out more but was last year anomaly due to him having Covid or is he just a less discpline hitter than Cruz. My point is hes paid to hit ball hard and far and when he does make contact he does almost better than everyone in the Majors

Sorry I lied went on a rant.

Side Note.... Looks like we have our starting line up based on todays game.

Kepler
Donaldson
Cruz
Polanco
Sano
Garver
Buxton
Simmons
Rooker

I can't find GIDP stats, so I'll just have to take your word on the Buxton/Sano stat. I will say that I'm not surprised his GIDP rate is so low...almost 40% of his at bats result in a K, so he already has a diminished sample size. Further, unlike Buck who should try to get the ball on the ground to utilize his speed, classic HR hitters like Sano want the ball up in the air. It seems like a high percentage of the 60% of the time he actually puts the ball in play results in a fly out or a hit...Miguel just doesn't (and shouldn't) hit many ground balls.

And is a K just another out? You can argue it's better than a regular out because there is little chance of a DP (unless the runner is going). But otherwise you're much better off putting the ball in play, because an out may move the runner up or get an error.

The puzzling thing to me is the way Sano's plate discipline has declined since his first season in the majors. His K rate hasn't changed much, but his walk ratio is way down...19% in his initial season when his OBP was .385 and I was saying he had one of the best eyes I had seen in a power-hitting rookie, to only 10% last season with a dreadful OBP of .278. This might be more tolerable if his HR rate had gone up, but it really hasn't. I agree that his HRs are fun to watch, but a 48% strikeout rate combined with a .278 OBP is alarming to me, especially when his respective numbers have gotten even worse this spring.

FNG wrote:

Jester1534 wrote:

Camden wrote:I'm already looking forward to a time where Miguel Sano is not a regular in the Twins lineup. He has far too many empty plate appearances for my liking and I just don't see him getting any better. He's great when he's mashing, but there are very long slumps in between that make him an easy out.

FNG wrote:Yep, and we seem to have a lot of other options now at 1b just waiting their turn. I hope Sano is aware of that. If Kirilloff starts out the season dominating AAA and Sano continues his K pace, I wouldn't mind seeing Alex at 1b once May comes around. Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer a productive Sano...but my patience is wearing thin.

I wont go into a total rant about Ks. I'll just say a strike out is just an out and old school thinking makes you think that is a bad thing. Did you know Buxton consitently hits in to more Double plays than Sano.

DId you know Sano Hard hit rate is 57.3% which means a ball that comes off his bat goes 95+ MPH. The only player with higher rate is Tatsis at 62.2

Nelson Cruz
2019 Ks 131 454 At bats 28%
2020 Ks 58 204 At bats 28%

Miguel Sano
2019 159Ks 439 ABs 36%
2020 90Ks 205 ABs 43%

Yes he strike out more but was last year anomaly due to him having Covid or is he just a less discpline hitter than Cruz. My point is hes paid to hit ball hard and far and when he does make contact he does almost better than everyone in the Majors

Sorry I lied went on a rant.

Side Note.... Looks like we have our starting line up based on todays game

Kepler
Donaldson
Cruz
Polanco
Sano
Garver
Buxton
Simmons
Rooker

I can't find GIDP stats, so I'll just have to take your word on the Buxton/Sano stat. I will say that I'm not surprised his GIDP rate is so low...almost 40% of his at bats result in a K, so he already has a diminished sample size. Further, unlike Buck who should try to get the ball on the ground to utilize his speed, classic HR hitters like Sano want the ball up in the air. It seems like a high percentage of the 60% of the time he actually puts the ball in play results in a fly out or a hit...Miguel just doesn't (and shouldn't) hit many ground balls.

And is a K just another out? You can argue it's better than a regular out because there is little chance of a DP (unless the runner is going). But otherwise you're much better off putting the ball in play, because an out may move the runner up or get an error.

The puzzling thing to me is the way Sano's plate discipline has declined since his first season in the majors. His K rate hasn't changed much, but his walk ratio is way down...19% in his initial season when his OBP was .385 and I was saying he had one of the best eyes I had seen in a power-hitting rookie, to only 10% last season with a dreadful OBP of .278. This might be more tolerable if his HR rate had gone up, but it really hasn't. I agree that his HRs are fun to watch, but a 48% strikeout rate combined with a .278 OBP is alarming to me, especially when his respective numbers have gotten even worse this spring.

I only know the GIDP because Gleeman from Athletic talked about it on his podcast a couple weeks ago.

Edit: Found it on Fangraphs Sano hit into 3 last year and Buxton hit into 2. In 2019 Sano hit into 5 and Buxton hit into 3 Gleeman was little off on this one.

Yes a strike out is just another out. Its no different than grounder or a fly out they all count the same. Your talking maybe 5-10 balls a year that are maybe booted by defense.

A Lazy flyball is caught 95% of the time
a regular ground ball has 72% chance of being an out

Take his 90 ks and cut them in half. Say half of them are flyballs and groundballs. Then he would get on base 1 more time from fly balls and 6 times from what you call a seeing eye grounder.

Now if your talking about moving runners last year Sano came up with RISP 32 times he struck out 15 times so 15 times ge didnt move the runner over to third or in from third. Nelson Cruz came up 36 times with RISP and struck out 13 times.

I'm sorry guys like Royce and other Media in this town bash Sano for striking out. When you look at data and it doesn't really matter. They all want to talk about how fat he's and how much he strikes out.

Rant on

Strikeouts and home runs are all that matter. Nobody wants to see anything else.

Rant off

(Personally, I would rather have a ground ball to the shortstop with a runner on 1st than a strikeout)

bleedspeed177 wrote:Rant on

Strikeouts and home runs are all that matter. Nobody wants to see anything else.

Rant off

(Personally, I would rather have a ground ball to the shortstop with a runner on 1st than a strikeout)

You will like this new rule there testing in minors this year. You only get 3 pick off attempts per runner. If you pickoff a third time a balk is called.

Who is the real Miguel Sano, though? You can never count on this guy for any consistency so it's hard to say for sure. Just look at his OPS year-by-year and he goes from masher to scrub with every season of his career so far.

2015: .916
2016: .781
2017: .859
2018: .679
2019: .923
2020: .727

Also, we can discuss whether his strikeouts are a hindrance, or that they're equal in some fashion to groundouts and fly outs, but my bigger issue with Sano is that his strikeout percentage has increased while his walk percentage has decreased over the years. He simply hasn't been a big threat to get on base with any consistency. I can live with the strikeouts if he's drawing his fair share of walks and hitting 30-plus dingers (or equal to that pace), but I just never know if that's the Sano I'm getting.

Lastly, the Twins non-tendered Eddie Rosario, and rightfully so, but at least you could pencil the guy in for an .800 OPS or better with 25-30 bombs and 80-ish runs driven in. While not always great, I could bet on Rosario being decent every season. I just need Sano to be consistently good instead of yo-yo-ing season to season.

On the bright side, since Sano sucked balls last season, we might be able to get the good version of him this season. And if we do get the good Sano, might I suggest that Minnesota deals him after the season.

Jester1534 wrote:

bleedspeed177 wrote:Rant on

Strikeouts and home runs are all that matter. Nobody wants to see anything else.

Rant off

(Personally, I would rather have a ground ball to the shortstop with a runner on 1st than a strikeout)

You will like this new rule there testing in minors this year. You only get 3 pick off attempts per runner. If you pickoff a third time a balk is called.

I read that, and it immediately got my mind going. So let's say a pitcher has thrown over to first twice. Can't the runner take a lead of about 20 feet, since he knows he is not going to get picked off! I recognize the runner has to keep an eye on the catcher if the ball is not put in play. But other than that, what is there to keep the runner from taking an enormous lead?

I predict this is a rule that will never make it in the majors.

One more question, jester. If you have a runner at third with less than 2 outs or a runner at second with no outs (two situations that occur frequently), would you still maintain that a K is no worse than any other out?

FNG wrote:

Jester1534 wrote:

bleedspeed177 wrote:Rant on

Strikeouts and home runs are all that matter. Nobody wants to see anything else.

Rant off

(Personally, I would rather have a ground ball to the shortstop with a runner on 1st than a strikeout)

You will like this new rule there testing in minors this year. You only get 3 pick off attempts per runner. If you pickoff a third time a balk is called.

I read that, and it immediately got my mind going. So let's say a pitcher has thrown over to first twice. Can't the runner take a lead of about 20 feet, since he knows he is not going to get picked off! I recognize the runner has to keep an eye on the catcher if the ball is not put in play. But other than that, what is there to keep the runner from taking an enormous lead?

I predict this is a rule that will never make it in the majors.

One more question, jester. If you have a runner at third with less than 2 outs or a runner at second with no outs (two situations that occur frequently), would you still maintain that a K is no worse than any other out?

Runner at third and less than two outs. Yes putting the ball in play matters.

Runner at 2nd and less than two outs percentage wise that guy doesnt gain that much of percentage chance of scoring from 2nd then he does 3rd base. Thats why Bunting is stupid unless your going for a hit.

This why I brought up 32 times Sano had RISP and less than two outs he struck out 15 times. I dont know how many were with runner on third I would have to check every game log lol. Yet he hit ball 17 of those times so basially the same rate as Cruz.

I've question for you.

If you come to bat and go 1-4 with but your 3 outs were piss rockets that were just hit at guys.

If I came up and went 1-4 with one bomb and 3 strikeouts

who had the better game?

Techinally I did. I got as many outs as you and I scored a run. It doesnt matter you hit 3 piss rockets they count for same amount of outs as me flaling away at sliders in the dirt.

who had the better game?

Jester1534 wrote:

bleedspeed177 wrote:Rant on

Strikeouts and home runs are all that matter. Nobody wants to see anything else.

Rant off

(Personally, I would rather have a ground ball to the shortstop with a runner on 1st than a strikeout)

You will like this new rule there testing in minors this year. You only get 3 pick off attempts per runner. If you pickoff a third time a balk is called.

I like that. I would like to see more stolen bases and wonder if that will impact it.

Jester1534 wrote:

FNG wrote:

Jester1534 wrote:

bleedspeed177 wrote:Rant on

Strikeouts and home runs are all that matter. Nobody wants to see anything else.

Rant off

(Personally, I would rather have a ground ball to the shortstop with a runner on 1st than a strikeout)

You will like this new rule there testing in minors this year. You only get 3 pick off attempts per runner. If you pickoff a third time a balk is called.

I read that, and it immediately got my mind going. So let's say a pitcher has thrown over to first twice. Can't the runner take a lead of about 20 feet, since he knows he is not going to get picked off! I recognize the runner has to keep an eye on the catcher if the ball is not put in play. But other than that, what is there to keep the runner from taking an enormous lead?

I predict this is a rule that will never make it in the majors.

One more question, jester. If you have a runner at third with less than 2 outs or a runner at second with no outs (two situations that occur frequently), would you still maintain that a K is no worse than any other out?

Runner at third and less than two outs. Yes putting the ball in play matters.

Runner at 2nd and less than two outs percentage wise that guy doesnt gain that much of percentage chance of scoring from 2nd then he does 3rd base. Thats why Bunting is stupid unless your going for a hit.

This why I brought up 32 times Sano had RISP and less than two outs he struck out 15 times. I dont know how many were with runner on third I would have to check every game log lol. Yet he hit ball 17 of those times so basially the same rate as Cruz.

I've question for you.

If you come to bat and go 1-4 with but your 3 outs were piss rockets that were just hit at guys.

If I came up and went 1-4 with one bomb and 3 strikeouts

who had the better game?

Techinally I did. I got as many outs as you and I scored a run. It doesnt matter you hit 3 piss rockets they count for same amount of outs as me flaling away at sliders in the dirt.

who had the better game?

Fair comment...good discussion, jester. I'm gonna cheer for a Sano bomb every time he comes up, because they sure are fun to watch. I'm not going to be happy if his OPS is below .800 again though.