lipoli390 wrote:FNG wrote:lipoli390 wrote:The Celtics won 51 games last season. But I think they were really a 45 win team. Jayson Tatum played 76 games last season while playing only 66 and 64 in each of the previous two seasons. Those extra 10-12 games with Tatum inflated the Celtics' win total.
Anyway, it's sort of interesting to speculate on what a team's record would have been with different variables adjusted. But it's pretty pointless. The Wolves were a 46-win team last season. That's a fact. They achieved that win total even though (1) DLO missed 17 games, (2) Beverley missed 24 games, (3) Edwards missed 10 games, (4) KAT missed 8 games, and (5) Beasley had just gotten out of prison and therefore required at least a quarter of the season to get into game shape.
The Vegas oddsmakers simply got it wrong last season because they didn't have miscalculated the development of Edwards, the infectious impact of Beverley, the resurgence of KAT, the contribution of Vanderbilt and the coaching of Chris Finch. That's understandable. Edwards was a 19-year old coming off his rookie season, Beverley's fit with this young team was a mystery, KAT seemed like an emotional wreck, Vanderbilt was totally unproven, i.e., not someone you'd predict would average 8.5 rebounds per game, and Finch only had a half-year of NBA head coaching experience at the time. The Vegas boys just blew it. That doesn't happen often, but it does happen once in a while and it happened last season in their evaluation of the Wolves. Keep in mind also that the Vegas boys are setting lines based in part on perception. They want roughly even bets on both sides. The Wolves have long been perceived as a bad team among basketball fans and general public. That factor would tend to drive the win-total line down a bit.
But the Vegas boys won't get fooled again. I think they're very close with their 49.5 win-total for next season. I think it's slightly understated because of the lingering perception that the Wolves can't be good and the related perception that two bigs can't play together. If you remove the perception factor, I think the win total would be set at around 51. Bottom line is I that Vegas sees the Wolves as as 50-win team and I think that's close to the mark.
The Wolves gained with the Gobert trade, but they also lost. There really are two sides to the equation. While Gobert obviously adds a lot to this team, the Wolves are also losing a lot with the departure of Beverley and Vanderbilt. Losing the defensive havoc they created for opposing teams will leave a huge void on this team. In addition, the Wolves will lose the positive impact those two had on their teammates. Losing their combined 12.5 rebounds per game will leave a big void, which offsets much of what Gobert brings on the boards to an otherwise poor rebounding team. There will also be an adjustment period as the team adapts to a very different style. You don't go from Vando and Beverley to Gobert without some growing pains. We're talking about a major shift in the way this team plays on both ends of the court. The Vegas oddsmakers know this and we should too.
The Wolves were a 46-win team last season; the Vegas oddsmakers just blew it. The Wolves are probably a 49-51 win team this season. They're a better team, but the improvement isn't as profound as some caught up in the Gobert euphoria might believe. Meanwhile the Western Conference will be better overall. If Gobert goes down for an extended period then we're looking at a win total in the low 40s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Ip6_U2lIo
Lol. Thanks for posting, Q! Once of GW's finest moments. And such a great song.
Ha, that was FNG that came up with that one! And indeed, one of the best rock anthem songs of all time. The all time best version of that song is when they played it at the 9/11 concert for NYC. Legendary.
