Vegas win totals

[FNG]

Now that much of the free agent activity is over, several outlets are releasing their win totals for 2022-3. Many of them are not including the Jazz, Knicks, Lakers and Nets, as those are the four teams most likely to still significantly change their roster before the start of the season.

Anyway, I am seeing the Wolves out there at 49.5 wins (I have also seen 48.5). Some here may find that very low since they have traded for an elite player and the total is only 3 1/2 wins more than last year. I think Vegas is looking at it differently though, or at least I am. They had the Wolves at 35.5 wins last year, and like me, I suspect they are aware of the nature of some of our wins last year, and have "normalized" last year's win totals down to maybe 39-40 wins. So the Vegas wise guys see 49.5 wins as a significant increase over last year's 35.5 forecast and the normalized 2021-22 win total. I think Vegas sees the Gobert trade adding more like 10-15 wins to the Wolves, rather than only 3.5 wins. Put another way, if adding Rudy only increases our win total by 3 1/2 wins, this was a really bad deal.

So how do I bet this 49.5 line? I've already said this deal makes us a top 4 team with mid-50 wins, so I'm solidly on the over this year. And I predict almost everyone on this board will have a win projection in the 50s (thereby "over"). The only ones I see going under 49.5 are anyone who thinks like me that we were more of a 39-40 win team last year, and that the Gobert deal doesn't give us 10 more wins (I'm looking at you, D-Loser ;-) )

Too early for the wins total thread, but I wanted to let everyone know what the early Vegas line is.

[Q-is-here]

I think the Vegas line is fair, but I don't see it as disastrous if we were to win 49 or 50 games. I think we all knew last year was a little bit of an outlier with major injury troubles keeping the likes of Kawhi, Klay, Murray, Davis, Zion, and Lillard out of a lot of action. And while injuries happen every year, it was seemingly every team in the West except Minnesota that had an all-star caliber player out for either all of the season or a huge chunk of it. Even Morant for Memphis, although the Grizz did even better without him!

I view the Gobert trade as the beginning of a 4-season window. The real key is that Ant starts hitting his peak as a player in the second two years of that window, which will be his 4th and 5th season as a pro. It's around that age that potential stars actually become stars.

[Lipoli390]

I think the Vegas line is fair, but I don't see it as disastrous if we were to win 49 or 50 games. I think we all knew last year was a little bit of an outlier with major injury troubles keeping the likes of Kawhi, Klay, Murray, Davis, Zion, and Lillard out of a lot of action. And while injuries happen every year, it was seemingly every team in the West except Minnesota that had an all-star caliber player out for either all of the season or a huge chunk of it. Even Morant for Memphis, although the Grizz did even better without him!

I view the Gobert trade as the beginning of a 4-season window. The real key is that Ant starts hitting his peak as a player in the second two years of that window, which will be his 4th and 5th season as a pro. It's around that age that potential stars actually become stars.

I agree, Q. Again, Ant was the key before the Gobert deal and he's still the key after the Gobert deal. I'll add that McDaniels and Nowell will be important factors as well. What the Gobert deal does is effectively shorten the time horizon for Ant to reach his upside. And it leaves the Wolves with less flexibility (transactionally and financially) to adjust on the fly or pivot in shaping the roster around Ant.

[Monster]

I think the Vegas line is fair, but I don't see it as disastrous if we were to win 49 or 50 games. I think we all knew last year was a little bit of an outlier with major injury troubles keeping the likes of Kawhi, Klay, Murray, Davis, Zion, and Lillard out of a lot of action. And while injuries happen every year, it was seemingly every team in the West except Minnesota that had an all-star caliber player out for either all of the season or a huge chunk of it. Even Morant for Memphis, although the Grizz did even better without him!

I view the Gobert trade as the beginning of a 4-season window. The real key is that Ant starts hitting his peak as a player in the second two years of that window, which will be his 4th and 5th season as a pro. It's around that age that potential stars actually become stars.

I think Edwards is in a bit of a unique situation. Usually the expected stars are on a team that picked them high and so the team is kinda bad. The Wolves have Towns who is a really good player heading into his prime. They also just acquired Gobert who is a terrific player and a future HOF and maybe the best defensive player in the league. There is talent on the roster beyond those guys. It hasn't hurt Edwards that he has had 2 vet guards that mentored him his first 2 years in Rubio and Beverly. He is on a good roster that might actually help his development compared to some other players that are basically just going out there and balling. I don't want to raise the expectations too high because I think you are right we probably shouldn't expect him to be that guy this year but even if it was in year 4 he really became a true superstar player that would actually be impressive. What he did last year playing both sides of the ball was well ahead of what I was expecting.

[Q-is-here]

I think the Vegas line is fair, but I don't see it as disastrous if we were to win 49 or 50 games. I think we all knew last year was a little bit of an outlier with major injury troubles keeping the likes of Kawhi, Klay, Murray, Davis, Zion, and Lillard out of a lot of action. And while injuries happen every year, it was seemingly every team in the West except Minnesota that had an all-star caliber player out for either all of the season or a huge chunk of it. Even Morant for Memphis, although the Grizz did even better without him!

I view the Gobert trade as the beginning of a 4-season window. The real key is that Ant starts hitting his peak as a player in the second two years of that window, which will be his 4th and 5th season as a pro. It's around that age that potential stars actually become stars.

I think Edwards is in a bit of a unique situation. Usually the expected stars are on a team that picked them high and so the team is kinda bad. The Wolves have Towns who is a really good player heading into his prime. They also just acquired Gobert who is a terrific player and a future HOF and maybe the best defensive player in the league. There is talent on the roster beyond those guys. It hasn't hurt Edwards that he has had 2 vet guards that mentored him his first 2 years in Rubio and Beverly. He is on a good roster that might actually help his development compared to some other players that are basically just going out there and balling. I don't want to raise the expectations too high because I think you are right we probably shouldn't expect him to be that guy this year but even if it was in year 4 he really became a true superstar player that would actually be impressive. What he did last year playing both sides of the ball was well ahead of what I was expecting.

Right. And it's possible that he only improves on the margins, but may be McDaniels takes a huge leap and becomes one of the better 3 & D/slashing role players. That would likely help us win 50 or more games. Or may be Nowell turns into a 6th man of the year candidate. He looked REALLY good during that stretch of games where the team was hit by Covid and he was getting regular minutes.

But at the end of the day, if we want to win a title, Ant needs to become a top 10 player. That's just not likely to happen in the next two years. But the team as a whole could still exceed the Vegas win total if other guys improve as well. We just won't win a title.

[Monster]

I think the Vegas line is fair, but I don't see it as disastrous if we were to win 49 or 50 games. I think we all knew last year was a little bit of an outlier with major injury troubles keeping the likes of Kawhi, Klay, Murray, Davis, Zion, and Lillard out of a lot of action. And while injuries happen every year, it was seemingly every team in the West except Minnesota that had an all-star caliber player out for either all of the season or a huge chunk of it. Even Morant for Memphis, although the Grizz did even better without him!

I view the Gobert trade as the beginning of a 4-season window. The real key is that Ant starts hitting his peak as a player in the second two years of that window, which will be his 4th and 5th season as a pro. It's around that age that potential stars actually become stars.

I think Edwards is in a bit of a unique situation. Usually the expected stars are on a team that picked them high and so the team is kinda bad. The Wolves have Towns who is a really good player heading into his prime. They also just acquired Gobert who is a terrific player and a future HOF and maybe the best defensive player in the league. There is talent on the roster beyond those guys. It hasn't hurt Edwards that he has had 2 vet guards that mentored him his first 2 years in Rubio and Beverly. He is on a good roster that might actually help his development compared to some other players that are basically just going out there and balling. I don't want to raise the expectations too high because I think you are right we probably shouldn't expect him to be that guy this year but even if it was in year 4 he really became a true superstar player that would actually be impressive. What he did last year playing both sides of the ball was well ahead of what I was expecting.

Right. And it's possible that he only improves on the margins, but may be McDaniels takes a huge leap and becomes one of the better 3 & D/slashing role players. That would likely help us win 50 or more games. Or may be Nowell turns into a 6th man of the year candidate. He looked REALLY good during that stretch of games where the team was hit by Covid and he was getting regular minutes.

But at the end of the day, if we want to win a title, Ant needs to become a top 10 player. That's just not likely to happen in the next two years. But the team as a whole could still exceed the Vegas win total if other guys improve as well. We just won't win a title.

Agreed.

I'll add with a little slice of optimism some of winning a title or not depends on health of other teams. Of course the Wolves could have injuries derail them too. I'm not getting my hopes up or anything but if the Wolves stay healthy and have some additional development and the right team or teams have injury issues...there MIGHT be a path for them even if Edwards doesn't ascend to a top 10 player in the next 2 years.

Also top 10 player in the league is really good. If he was say top 15-20 that could be pretty good especially if he was a legit 2 way guy. He might not be the top 10 scorer type but if he is a well above average defender and a pretty good scorer and playmaker yeah that's a really good player. Imagine if you dropped a 21 year old KG into a situation like this. That would be a hell of a frontcourt! Lol

[Q-is-here]

I think the Vegas line is fair, but I don't see it as disastrous if we were to win 49 or 50 games. I think we all knew last year was a little bit of an outlier with major injury troubles keeping the likes of Kawhi, Klay, Murray, Davis, Zion, and Lillard out of a lot of action. And while injuries happen every year, it was seemingly every team in the West except Minnesota that had an all-star caliber player out for either all of the season or a huge chunk of it. Even Morant for Memphis, although the Grizz did even better without him!

I view the Gobert trade as the beginning of a 4-season window. The real key is that Ant starts hitting his peak as a player in the second two years of that window, which will be his 4th and 5th season as a pro. It's around that age that potential stars actually become stars.

I think Edwards is in a bit of a unique situation. Usually the expected stars are on a team that picked them high and so the team is kinda bad. The Wolves have Towns who is a really good player heading into his prime. They also just acquired Gobert who is a terrific player and a future HOF and maybe the best defensive player in the league. There is talent on the roster beyond those guys. It hasn't hurt Edwards that he has had 2 vet guards that mentored him his first 2 years in Rubio and Beverly. He is on a good roster that might actually help his development compared to some other players that are basically just going out there and balling. I don't want to raise the expectations too high because I think you are right we probably shouldn't expect him to be that guy this year but even if it was in year 4 he really became a true superstar player that would actually be impressive. What he did last year playing both sides of the ball was well ahead of what I was expecting.

Right. And it's possible that he only improves on the margins, but may be McDaniels takes a huge leap and becomes one of the better 3 & D/slashing role players. That would likely help us win 50 or more games. Or may be Nowell turns into a 6th man of the year candidate. He looked REALLY good during that stretch of games where the team was hit by Covid and he was getting regular minutes.

But at the end of the day, if we want to win a title, Ant needs to become a top 10 player. That's just not likely to happen in the next two years. But the team as a whole could still exceed the Vegas win total if other guys improve as well. We just won't win a title.

Agreed.

I'll add with a little slice of optimism some of winning a title or not depends on health of other teams. Of course the Wolves could have injuries derail them too. I'm not getting my hopes up or anything but if the Wolves stay healthy and have some additional development and the right team or teams have injury issues...there MIGHT be a path for them even if Edwards doesn't ascend to a top 10 player in the next 2 years.

Also top 10 player in the league is really good. If he was say top 15-20 that could be pretty good especially if he was a legit 2 way guy. He might not be the top 10 scorer type but if he is a well above average defender and a pretty good scorer and playmaker yeah that's a really good player. Imagine if you dropped a 21 year old KG into a situation like this. That would be a hell of a frontcourt! Lol

Yeah, we've talked about teams that win a title with an ensemble of top 15 to 30 guys, but no clear-cut superstar. The Pistons, 2014 Spurs, 2011 Mavs....it can happen, but it's the exception.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Yep. Minnesota had 46 lucky wins last season and should have 50 or more lucky wins this upcoming season. Who knew this franchise was so fortunate?

[thedoper]

Lets prove Vegas wrong. 50 wins would be sweet.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

Now that much of the free agent activity is over, several outlets are releasing their win totals for 2022-3. Many of them are not including the Jazz, Knicks, Lakers and Nets, as those are the four teams most likely to still significantly change their roster before the start of the season.

Anyway, I am seeing the Wolves out there at 49.5 wins (I have also seen 48.5). Some here may find that very low since they have traded for an elite player and the total is only 3 1/2 wins more than last year. I think Vegas is looking at it differently though, or at least I am. They had the Wolves at 35.5 wins last year, and like me, I suspect they are aware of the nature of some of our wins last year, and have "normalized" last year's win totals down to maybe 39-40 wins. So the Vegas wise guys see 49.5 wins as a significant increase over last year's 35.5 forecast and the normalized 2021-22 win total. I think Vegas sees the Gobert trade adding more like 10-15 wins to the Wolves, rather than only 3.5 wins. Put another way, if adding Rudy only increases our win total by 3 1/2 wins, this was a really bad deal.

So how do I bet this 49.5 line? I've already said this deal makes us a top 4 team with mid-50 wins, so I'm solidly on the over this year. And I predict almost everyone on this board will have a win projection in the 50s (thereby "over"). The only ones I see going under 49.5 are anyone who thinks like me that we were more of a 39-40 win team last year, and that the Gobert deal doesn't give us 10 more wins (I'm looking at you, D-Loser ;-) )

Too early for the wins total thread, but I wanted to let everyone know what the early Vegas line is.

Haha yeah I'm definitely with you on this. I think 49.5 is fair. If we would have run it back with the exact same team as last year, I think they'd have us around 40 wins for next season. I think most people understand that last years team wins 39-40 games against a schedule with even injury luck. I also think these Vegas people and experts understand that Dlo is not a winning player. The fact we're seeing wins projections of 48.5 and 49.5 tells me that the experts think two things... 1 - Gobert is a bad fit next to Kat on both ends of the court and 2 - Dlo is a below average starting PG and we don't have much help at point for when he starts playing REALLY bad.

Jumping past the negativity, it's nice to have a wins projection this high and expect something in the 48-52 range.