Minnesota Sports Forum

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Ricky knocked down his 3's today for his second solid game in a row. He's now 2nd on the team in +/- to Gasol, despite playing nearly 10 fewer minutes per game. So basically he's just doing what he always does - makes the team better when he's on the court, whether his shot is going down or not.

Yeah, more evidence that the theory that teams will sag off of him come playoff time to dare him to shoot open threes is folly...3 for 3 on threes today, and he made them look as easy as free throws. Ricky's 3-point shot isn't pretty, but when left open it's going to go in more frequently than the league average.

I think it's absurd that Spain's coach plays Rubio so few minutes. The offense runs smoother when he is on the court, and none of the other point guards are even close to him defensively. Ricky seems to be the kind of guy who is more successful the more minutes he gets. Well, at least this isn't likely to be an issue with Thibs...my guess is that he will play Ricky 36-38 MPG, and Ricky will thrive with that kind of workload.

I just heard a podcast with an NBA coach.

He mentioned teams going under the pick and roll vs. Ricky Rubio to muck things up. It's not a contrived narrative. There are legitimate NBA examples of this happening. It happens EVERY single season. It even happens to guys like Jeff Teague who is a 35.5% career three point shooter. (Rubio is 31.8% on fewer attempts per game).

As noted previously... probably countless times... it's not just about leaving Rubio wide open. Teams will dare him to shoot for a couple of reasons:

1. He is not a great shooter. 31.8% is a poor percentage. He's never been a league average shooter behind the arc despite taking mostly open shots from there.
2. He is not a willing shooter. He doesn't have the mentality to take 25 - 30 shots, even if wide open. I've used the Steve Nash example before. In 2006, the Dallas Mavericks basically dared Nash to shoot in the playoffs. It was actually fairly successful initially. Sure. Nash went crazy. But scoring wasn't his first instinct. The Suns were out of rhythm as a result. Granted, Nash averaged something like 40 ppg on 60+% fg as the series went on so they were able to overcome it. Nash vs. Rubio is a very large difference. (By the way, the Heat were successful vs. Atlanta and Teague in part because he was so unsure about when and how often to shoot all those open jumpers.)

Abe, Ricky has been in the league for 5 years, and generally speaking, everyone goes underneath ball screens with him, so you are correct on that point.....yet he has proven that he can run a high-octane offense anyway. It's not a foreign concept to him for people to back off....

I think the question is what happens if teams literally play 5 on 4 defensively and just completely ignore him, which is what I suspect you think teams would do in the playoffs. I'd love for us to be in a position to find out!

Q12543 wrote:Abe, Ricky has been in the league for 5 years, and generally speaking, everyone goes underneath ball screens with him, so you are correct on that point.....yet he has proven that he can run a high-octane offense anyway. It's not a foreign concept to him for people to back off....

I think the question is what happens if teams literally play 5 on 4 defensively and just completely ignore him, which is what I suspect you think teams would do in the playoffs. I'd love for us to be in a position to find out!

Yep. As I've also noted many times.

I'll even go as far to hope that I am wrong and everybody uses this forum to point and laugh and ridicule me...

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Abe, Ricky has been in the league for 5 years, and generally speaking, everyone goes underneath ball screens with him, so you are correct on that point.....yet he has proven that he can run a high-octane offense anyway. It's not a foreign concept to him for people to back off....

I think the question is what happens if teams literally play 5 on 4 defensively and just completely ignore him, which is what I suspect you think teams would do in the playoffs. I'd love for us to be in a position to find out!

Yep. As I've also noted many times.

I'll even go as far to hope that I am wrong and everybody uses this forum to point and laugh and ridicule me...

You're not wrong, the question is whether Ricky can force an adjustment or not.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Abe, Ricky has been in the league for 5 years, and generally speaking, everyone goes underneath ball screens with him, so you are correct on that point.....yet he has proven that he can run a high-octane offense anyway. It's not a foreign concept to him for people to back off....

I think the question is what happens if teams literally play 5 on 4 defensively and just completely ignore him, which is what I suspect you think teams would do in the playoffs. I'd love for us to be in a position to find out!

Yep. As I've also noted many times.

I'll even go as far to hope that I am wrong and everybody uses this forum to point and laugh and ridicule me...

You're not wrong, the question is whether Ricky can force an adjustment or not.

I agree. I'll also say it's not just about what Ricky can or ends up not being able to do. If other guys play well hit their shots when they have opportunities at a good rate that matters too.

I'll also add here LST said Rubio is best playing big minutes. I thought the minutes he played last year for Sam around 30mpg (one of the things I thought Sam got right mostly) was good for him. He plays enough to do his thing but also gets some rest because he goes all out so much. That's why Kris Dunn being at least a solid player overall as the bench PG with maybe even Tyus being an odd steady hand at times could be big. I don't want Rubio playing 35mpg consistently. Keep him a little fresher and possibly healthier.

monsterpile wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Abe, Ricky has been in the league for 5 years, and generally speaking, everyone goes underneath ball screens with him, so you are correct on that point.....yet he has proven that he can run a high-octane offense anyway. It's not a foreign concept to him for people to back off....

I think the question is what happens if teams literally play 5 on 4 defensively and just completely ignore him, which is what I suspect you think teams would do in the playoffs. I'd love for us to be in a position to find out!

Yep. As I've also noted many times.

I'll even go as far to hope that I am wrong and everybody uses this forum to point and laugh and ridicule me...

You're not wrong, the question is whether Ricky can force an adjustment or not.

I agree. I'll also say it's not just about what Ricky can or ends up not being able to do. If other guys play well hit their shots when they have opportunities at a good rate that matters too.

I'll also add here LST said Rubio is best playing big minutes. I thought the minutes he played last year for Sam around 30mpg (one of the things I thought Sam got right mostly) was good for him. He plays enough to do his thing but also gets some rest because he goes all out so much. That's why Kris Dunn being at least a solid player overall as the bench PG with maybe even Tyus being an odd steady hand at times could be big. I don't want Rubio playing 35mpg consistently. Keep him a little fresher and possibly healthier.

I agree Monster on the minutes thing. I think something in the 30-ish range seems about right for Rubio considering his injury history and how hard he plays.

And while I wouldn't throw everything out the window in terms of Thibs' preferences while coaching Chicago, the fact he now wears the POBO hat will change his perspective on some things. One might be giving Kris Dunn more rope (and therefore more minutes) than he would otherwise if he was just the coach.

Spain seems to be gaining momentum....They just crushed France today. Rubio had another solid outing and was a +20 in only 18 minutes of action.