Wiggins by Month

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Things that made me go "huh" in this thread.

- sjm giving Wiggins 4-5 more points a night based on... nothing really. Refs have missed some fouls on him, but he gets whistles on some softies too. I think his rate is OK right now. He's just not making enough of them.

- Carlos: trade Martin for a backup backup center and a 2nd round pick? Why in the hell would that be a good idea? He's our best shooter on a team that has no shooting besides him. He's an efficient 20 PPG scorer. He's paid very reasonably. To me, he's way more valuable than a third center and a 2nd round pick. I'm 100% down with keeping Martin.

Have you been paying attention this season? We are in a youth movement/rebuild. Martin will be 32 next year. We have several young Wing players. Wiggins/Bazz are going to play. At some point we need to see what we have in GR3. And LaVine probably needs a look at SG too. I'm not seeing a need for Kevin Martin. Especially on a team that need to improve on defense.

What we do need is size. Specifically, at PF and Center. That's why I threw out one idea of show casing Martin for a trade when he's healthy. To me, if we can flip him for another piece we can use going forward - it's worth it. As to Martin's actual value? None of us know. It depends on how he looks when he gets back and other teams' needs.

Have you been paying attention this year? We are a terrible three-point shooting team with terrible spacing yet we have several capable post threats. You want to trade away our best shooter for scraps. Youth movement or not, the value of the trade in your post doesn't make sense. Wiggins/Bazz are going to play right now and in the future. Other than LaVIne in limited supply, nobody else should command minutes away from a healthy Martin. You don't need to dump quality players just because you're in a rebuild. That's called tanking. We don't need to do that.

Now, if there's a starting caliber player that would be a good fit here or a 1st rounder offered for Martin, that's a different story. I'm just saying your idea of trading him for a backup big and a second round pick is absurd to me.

As for adding a big, I can't see Flip drafting anything other than a PF/C (Karl Towns would be ideal). There's plenty of them. That would give us Pekovic, Dieng, 2015 1st rounder and possibly Young going into next year. Could include Bennett there too, but I'm leaning on the "decline his option" side of the fence.

[Carlos Danger]

If you think spacing is our biggest problem, then we have been watching different games. Defense is the elephant in the room. Kevin Martin brings nothing in that area. I also think you are a bit delusional as to the value of a 32 year old SG, that plays zero defense. That said, nobody wrote "dump Martin". What I wrote was showcase him for a trade. Obviously they would get the best value they could - whatever that is. And neither of us know what that would be right now.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

If you think spacing is our biggest problem, then we have been watching different games. Defense is the elephant in the room. Kevin Martin brings nothing in that area. I also think you are a bit delusional as to the value of a 32 year old SG, that plays zero defense. That said, nobody wrote "dump Martin". What I wrote was showcase him for a trade. Obviously they would get the best value they could - whatever that is. And neither of us know what that would be right now.

1. I never said spacing was the biggest issue, but you cannot deny or forget to include that our perimeter shooting is terrible. It is a big problem.

2. Martin is our three-point threat. We play at a disadvantage every night because we can guarantee that the opposition kills us in the 3P category. That includes our perimeter offense and defense. We were bad there last year and then lost Love. Can't afford to lose Martin as well.

3. Kevin Martin's a proven 20-point scorer in the NBA. He's a big time shooter, and guess what? That translates to every team. You say we don't know his value. Fine. That's not even the point, though. I'm arguing that we keep him because I know the value he has on this team.

[mjs34]

Huh?
Really?
Seriously?

Is this some anti-Minnesota conspiracy talk? Or, just anti-Wiggins?

Am I wrong? Even JimPete is harping on it on a nightly basis, and he is the anti-homer when it comes to color guys in the league.

Be realistic. The hyperbole/homer optimism is too much in this case. It doesn't make sense.

Harden leads the league in free throw attempts. 9.2... with a sophisticated game and handle to draw those fouls at a ridiculous rate. Plus, a winning team that gets a few more freebies at the end of wins.

Wiggins is at 4.3 per game. Not bad for a rookie without much of a handle. You expect him to get 7 more attempts per game... and shoot 11+ attempts per game to lead the rest of the league by a wide margin? And he's not simply because of "bad calls?"

Remember, he's only shooting 69% from the line. So he'll need to get there at least 7 more times to make 5.

A little too simplistic, but I try and walk you through it.

If AW drives to the hoop in the first couple of minutes and actually manages to get a foul called on his defender, what happens the next time he gets the ball? The defender backs off, because he doesn't want to pickup that second foul, and he knows the ref may call it. If he doesn't get the foul, the defender gets that much more aggressive. It isn't just about how many times he gets to the line, it's more about what the defense is allowed to get away with.

Take the other night on his drive against Golbert. Now he goes to the line and makes one or two shots. Next time he drives Golbert isn't as aggressive and instead of missing the contested shot, he makes the uncontested one. That little change is 3-4 pts. Don't think 4-5 for a game is unreasonable. The more I think about it, it will probably be even more.

The more he gets to the line, the more comfortable he will get. Then we can expect his percentage to move closer to what he shot in college which was upper 70's.

Piss poor or biased officiating at the start of a game can set the tone for the defense for the entire night. If they let them get away with blatant fouls, they will be reaching and grabbing all game. Not to mention what it can do to a rookie's confidence as well.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Coaches tend to give minutes to #1 picks they are trying to develop, especially in a year lost to injuries.

You still have to earn it. And if you don't believe me, then ask Anthony Bennett this year or last.

Yes. And no. In this case, the only reason fans were ok with yet another rebuild is because of the promise of the #1 pick in the draft (Wiggins). So if we weren't seeing him play, you better believe there would be some serious rumblings.

Sometimes, there's a lot of PR stuff that goes on with this stuff. Not saying that Wiggins doesn't deserve the time... but if he was only getting 10 mpg (deserved or not)... there would be some serious second guessing about the trade going on among fans.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Huh?
Really?
Seriously?

Is this some anti-Minnesota conspiracy talk? Or, just anti-Wiggins?

Am I wrong? Even JimPete is harping on it on a nightly basis, and he is the anti-homer when it comes to color guys in the league.

Be realistic. The hyperbole/homer optimism is too much in this case. It doesn't make sense.

Harden leads the league in free throw attempts. 9.2... with a sophisticated game and handle to draw those fouls at a ridiculous rate. Plus, a winning team that gets a few more freebies at the end of wins.

Wiggins is at 4.3 per game. Not bad for a rookie without much of a handle. You expect him to get 7 more attempts per game... and shoot 11+ attempts per game to lead the rest of the league by a wide margin? And he's not simply because of "bad calls?"

Remember, he's only shooting 69% from the line. So he'll need to get there at least 7 more times to make 5.

A little too simplistic, but I try and walk you through it.

If AW drives to the hoop in the first couple of minutes and actually manages to get a foul called on his defender, what happens the next time he gets the ball? The defender backs off, because he doesn't want to pickup that second foul, and he knows the ref may call it. If he doesn't get the foul, the defender gets that much more aggressive. It isn't just about how many times he gets to the line, it's more about what the defense is allowed to get away with.

Take the other night on his drive against Golbert. Now he goes to the line and makes one or two shots. Next time he drives Golbert isn't as aggressive and instead of missing the contested shot, he makes the uncontested one. That little change is 3-4 pts. Don't think 4-5 for a game is unreasonable. The more I think about it, it will probably be even more.

The more he gets to the line, the more comfortable he will get. Then we can expect his percentage to move closer to what he shot in college which was upper 70's.

Piss poor or biased officiating at the start of a game can set the tone for the defense for the entire night. If they let them get away with blatant fouls, they will be reaching and grabbing all game. Not to mention what it can do to a rookie's confidence as well.

Ok. We view basketball very very differently.

I'll keep watching it objectively.

[Carlos Danger]

Coaches tend to give minutes to #1 picks they are trying to develop, especially in a year lost to injuries.

You still have to earn it. And if you don't believe me, then ask Anthony Bennett this year or last.

Yes. And no. In this case, the only reason fans were ok with yet another rebuild is because of the promise of the #1 pick in the draft (Wiggins). So if we weren't seeing him play, you better believe there would be some serious rumblings.

Sometimes, there's a lot of PR stuff that goes on with this stuff. Not saying that Wiggins doesn't deserve the time... but if he was only getting 10 mpg (deserved or not)... there would be some serious second guessing about the trade going on among fans.

I don't recall Flip and Glen doing a pulse survey before pulling the trigger on the Love deal. Yes, fans want to see top draft picks. But fans don't get a vote in who plays or how many minutes. Anthony Bennett was the #1 overall in 2013 and he averaged 13 minutes for a bad Cleveland team. Derrick Williams was a #2 overall and averaged 21.5 for a bad Wolves team. Wiggins is getting 30+. If we wasn't doing enough out there, he wouldn't be getting that many minutes. I consider it a good sign that he's out there in all situations - especially at the end of games.

[Carlos Danger]

If you think spacing is our biggest problem, then we have been watching different games. Defense is the elephant in the room. Kevin Martin brings nothing in that area. I also think you are a bit delusional as to the value of a 32 year old SG, that plays zero defense. That said, nobody wrote "dump Martin". What I wrote was showcase him for a trade. Obviously they would get the best value they could - whatever that is. And neither of us know what that would be right now.

1. I never said spacing was the biggest issue, but you cannot deny or forget to include that our perimeter shooting is terrible. It is a big problem.

2. Martin is our three-point threat. We play at a disadvantage every night because we can guarantee that the opposition kills us in the 3P category. That includes our perimeter offense and defense. We were bad there last year and then lost Love. Can't afford to lose Martin as well.

3. Kevin Martin's a proven 20-point scorer in the NBA. He's a big time shooter, and guess what? That translates to every team. You say we don't know his value. Fine. That's not even the point, though. I'm arguing that we keep him because I know the value he has on this team.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree. By the time this team is ready to compete, Martin will be in his mid-30's and at the end of his contract. I'd rather roll with guys who are 10 to 12 years younger than him knowing some of them will likely be the core going forward. I don't see any reason to have Martin take minutes away from guys like Wiggins, Bazz or LaVine. Other guys like GR3 and Troy Daniels also should probably get a look this year to see what they can do. Martin wasn't a difference maker last year and I doubt he's going to get better at this point. I'd rather roll with the young guys and see what they can do.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

At its core, this discussion is not so much about how good Wiggins is/will be, but about how do we get to where we want to be as a team? Sadly, that's been the central question on this board since we traded KG.

There's no right answer, but the two schools of thought seem to be these.

1) Hit the Bottom to Make it Back to the Top

Dump the vets for young guys and picks (or even cap space). Give the young guys a bunch of playing time to develop them and don't worry too much about not winning games because it'll even get you an even higher pick, and picks are valuable to this school of thought. With more playing time, some of those young guys will develop into good or even great players, and will form a core of a team going forward. At some point later, the goal here is you'll become a good enough team again to trade a young guy and/or future picks for the right star from another team on its way down. You become a playoff team with the young guys you drafted high in the draft and developed, even if it means suffering through some losing seasons.

2) Go Young, But Don't Go Whole Hog, Keep Vets

This school of thought values keeping more veterans around even while you are rebuilding with young guys, even if they take away playing time from younger guys and make the team win more games, thus reducing the chance of getting a higher pick--which this school of thought does not value as much. According to this school of thought, young guys will develop by competing with vets for minutes, and the team will avoid developing a losing culture, which may be important for keeping good young players and attracting future free agents--which this school of thought tends to value. The goal here is that at some point, a couple of your young guys will become good enough that some vets can become expendable, and then you integrate those young guys and the vets you keep into a playoff squad.

Nobody fits perfectly into either category, and most of us would say it should be a mix of the two and that any rebuilding path should take into consideration the context of who is on the team and who is available, but this is a rough breakdown of the two schools of thought that seem to shape so many of our discussions here.

For the sake of disclosure, I lean more toward school 2 given a roster that still has Rubio, Martin, and Pek, although for years I was more of a school 1 advocate. But this helps explain why I am a little wary of young guys. To me, I'm excited about Wiggins, but he's been a relatively inefficient rookie and it will be a couple years until we really know what he's going to bring to the table. That's consistent with the skepticism toward young guys that the second school of thought seems to take. I would also value Martin more than Carlos. I don't think his defense is THAT bad, and his offense more than makes up for it IMO. I assume this would be true of other guys who fall into these two schools of thought.

That said, if we're talking about Martin, I am aware that because of injuries, this season is pretty much shot in terms of wins, so it changes the context somewhat. I also think the emergence of Shabazz changes the equation somewhat. As a school 2 guy, I'm still wary of whether Bazz can keep it up, but if it looks like he can, especially if he can hit the 3 well, Martin becomes more expendable in my book. At this point, I don't think we need to play Martin to showcase him. People know what he is. So I'd say don't rush bringing him back to get Bazz more minutes. If Bazz continues to play well, and if the right option comes along, I'm ok with trading Martin. But if/when Rubio and Pek get back and if we find ourselves in a position to win some more games while still getting Wiggins and Bazz minutes, I'd want Martin to come back and play for us. I'm sick of losing. And Bazz can play the 2 or the 3 so I could see a future for this team with Martin and Wiggins as our starting wings and Bazz backing them both up as a super 6th man off the bench like Harden used to or Ginobili does.

[Carlos Danger]

Drew, even though you and I don't see 100% eye to eye on which option is better (#1 or #2), I think you stated both sides very clearly and I respect your difference of opinion. I actually was fine with going with your #2 option to start the year because I too am sick of losing. But injuries derailed this season and maybe next (how much Pek will play anymore?) so right now, I'm 100% in to #1. But good job of teeing up the two central points of view.