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Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:29 am
by Jester1534
I find it hilarious that half this board thinks the wolves are to good for Lillard lol
All I have to say is Lillard took an inferior team to the WCF in 2019
Cj McCollum < Ant
Rodney Hood < Jaden
Zach Collins < Kyle Anderson or Naz Ried
Hassan Whiteside < Rudy Gobert
But hey let’s bank on that Kat Playoff success. Let’s maybe trade for the guy that actually has had playoff success instead.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:36 am
by AbeVigodaLive
Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:22 am
AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:58 am
Dame Lillard last season:
32.2 ppg (career high)
7.3 ast
46.3% fg (career high)
37.1% 3fg
[Note: He's only played 87 games over the past two seasons. I don't know how many of those were for tanking purposes.]
It’s dangerous to judge a 33 year old player by his most recent season, especially if the player has 4 years left on his deal at a max salary that escalates to $63M when he’ll be 36. Players in their 30s often decline in steps, not a steady downward slope. Career average is a MUCH better guard of what to expect from a 33 year old.
I’m also trying to imagine how Lillard would fit with Ant. Lillard got his 32 point average last season taking over 20 shots per game - about the same as Steph Curry. Lillard has averaged 18.6 shots per game over his career. He’s a high volume scorer and a ball dominant PG. I just don’t see the fit with Ant. The fact that TC is even making the inquiry causes me to further question his judgment. If this team is all about Ant, which is essentially what TC said recently, then trading for Lillard doesn’t make sense. Neither his age nor his game fits well with Ant.
Maybe.
I was just pointing out that Lillard is coming off what might be his best statistical season. Whether he's worth the price in a few years, or a good fit with Edwards, are justifiable concerns.
But for 2024, Dame Lillard projects to be an ELITE player.
I don't even know what's a reasonable forecast for players anymore. 4 years... 3 years... 1 year? What I do know is that elite players can choose to leave teams mostly when they want. And there are very few contracts that can't be traded. Whether I enjoy it or not, it makes sense to look at it trades, acquisitions and upcoming decisions in MUCH shorter blocks than any other time in NBA history.
I dunno. The only thing I do know is that Gobert + Towns + Reid is not sustainable. It doesn't even make sense.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:39 am
by Sundog
I dunno, a player like Dame comes available, you gotta make that call. I’d be pissed in Connelly didn’t. As to fit with Ant, that could end up being fine. I’m just concerned about too many moving parts around Ant and Jaden. But the team has to make another big move like this after next season anyway.
It’s a massive long shot anything happens with the Wolves and Blazers, so I’m not spending too much time thinking about it.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:53 am
by Lipoli390
Sundog wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:39 am
I dunno, a player like Dame comes available, you gotta make that call. I’d be pissed in Connelly didn’t. As to fit with Ant, that could end up being fine. I’m just concerned about too many moving parts around Ant and Jaden. But the team has to make another big move like this after next season anyway.
It’s a massive long shot anything happens with the Wolves and Blazers, so I’m not spending too much time thinking about it.
Minnesota is one of only several teams that have reportedly called about Lillard. It makes sense for Miami to reach out because of how Lillard would fit with their star, Butler, who is in his 30s and doesn’t need the ball to be at his best. It makes sense for the Sixers to inquire because Lillard fits with their star, Embiid, who’s a 29-year old big and not a a ball-dominant high-volume scorer. It makes no sense for the Wolves whose budding star is a 21 year old high-volume “ball in his hands crunch-time” scorer. At his best, Ant will be what Lillard is. It’s nonsensical for the Wolves to be thinking about acquiring Lillard. I agree it’s unlikely, but I’m troubled that our organization would give a moment of thought to acquiring Lillard. And based on what happened last summer, reports about Wolves front office inquiries into dumb deals can’t be easily dismissed as meaningless or highly improbable.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:01 am
by Lipoli390
I’ll just add that it’s time for TC to give up on big-game hunting. It doesn’t work for teams outside LA and Miami. In fact, it rarely works for those organizations as well. If TC is serious about building a sustainable contender around Ant and Jaden, then all his moves should be tailored to that purpose. He should have learned from the Gobert experience that he’s not Daryl Morey - and that’s a good thing.

. TC should reflect for a moment or two on how things would have been this summer if he had the following instead of Gobert at the end of last season:
1. All four of the future 1st-round picks he gave up
2. Walker Kessler
3. Vanderbilt
4. Beasley
5. Beverley
6. A top 16 pick in this year’s first round
That’s a lot to work with that he should have had as the organization seeks to build a sustainable contender around Ant and Jaden.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:05 am
by Sundog
I get the timeline difference between Dame and Ant/Jaden… that’s a real concern. But given how well McCollum and Lilliard, both score-first, high-usage guards, played together, I’m not worried about how Ant and Dame might mesh. Those guys (Dame/McCollum) were fantastic together.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:07 am
by AbeVigodaLive
Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:53 am
Sundog wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:39 am
I dunno, a player like Dame comes available, you gotta make that call. I’d be pissed in Connelly didn’t. As to fit with Ant, that could end up being fine. I’m just concerned about too many moving parts around Ant and Jaden. But the team has to make another big move like this after next season anyway.
It’s a massive long shot anything happens with the Wolves and Blazers, so I’m not spending too much time thinking about it.
Minnesota is one of only several teams that have reportedly called about Lillard. It makes sense for Miami to reach out because of how Lillard would fit with their star, Butler, who is in his 30s and doesn’t need the ball to be at his best. It makes sense for the Sixers to inquire because Lillard fits with their star, Embiid, who’s a 29-year old big and not a a ball-dominant high-volume scorer. It makes no sense for the Wolves whose budding star is a 21 year old high-volume “ball in his hands crunch-time” scorer. At his best, Ant will be what Lillard is. It’s nonsensical for the Wolves to be thinking about acquiring Lillard. I agree it’s unlikely, but I’m troubled that our organization would give a moment of thought to acquiring Lillard. And based on what happened last summer,
reports about Wolves front office inquiries into dumb deals can’t be easily dismissed as meaningless or highly improbable.
Well... that's just it, isn't it? Does having three legit centers on the team taking up most of the salary cap make any more sense than having two ball-dominant guards?
It would be funny, however, to see such an abrupt strategy change... going from too many bigs to too many dominant guards in only a couple of months. Chris Finch might snap...
[Note: It's all moot. Lillard isn't coming here. But the Wolves could be part of a larger trade for him. What about a three-way trade that brought something like Maxey and Harris to Minnesota?]
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:18 am
by Lipoli390
AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:07 am
Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:53 am
Sundog wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:39 am
I dunno, a player like Dame comes available, you gotta make that call. I’d be pissed in Connelly didn’t. As to fit with Ant, that could end up being fine. I’m just concerned about too many moving parts around Ant and Jaden. But the team has to make another big move like this after next season anyway.
It’s a massive long shot anything happens with the Wolves and Blazers, so I’m not spending too much time thinking about it.
Minnesota is one of only several teams that have reportedly called about Lillard. It makes sense for Miami to reach out because of how Lillard would fit with their star, Butler, who is in his 30s and doesn’t need the ball to be at his best. It makes sense for the Sixers to inquire because Lillard fits with their star, Embiid, who’s a 29-year old big and not a a ball-dominant high-volume scorer. It makes no sense for the Wolves whose budding star is a 21 year old high-volume “ball in his hands crunch-time” scorer. At his best, Ant will be what Lillard is. It’s nonsensical for the Wolves to be thinking about acquiring Lillard. I agree it’s unlikely, but I’m troubled that our organization would give a moment of thought to acquiring Lillard. And based on what happened last summer,
reports about Wolves front office inquiries into dumb deals can’t be easily dismissed as meaningless or highly improbable.
Well... that's just it, isn't it? Does having three legit centers on the team taking up most of the salary cap make any more sense than having two ball-dominant guards?
It would be funny, however, to see such an abrupt strategy change... going from too many bigs to too many dominant guards in only a couple of months. Chris Finch might snap...
[Note: It's all moot. Lillard isn't coming here. But the Wolves could be part of a larger trade for him. What about a three-way trade that brought something like Maxey and Harris to Minnesota?]
LOL. You nailed it, Abe. Neither makes sense. So it would be comical to see the Wolves swing from one extreme to the other.

.
I agree that Lillard coming here is highly improbably. But I love your thought about the Wolves being involved in a 3-way that landed Maxey and Harris.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:28 am
by Lipoli390
Sundog wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:05 am
I get the timeline difference between Dame and Ant/Jaden… that’s a real concern. But given how well McCollum and Lilliard, both score-first, high-usage guards, played together, I’m not worried about how Ant and Dame might mesh. Those guys (Dame/McCollum) were fantastic together.
Good point about the Dame/McCollum pairing, Sundog. But the pecking order was clear with Lillard as #1 and McCollum as #2. You always knew that Lillard would have the ball and take the shot in crunch time. Lillard and Ant are both alphas. Then of course, as you acknowledged, there’s the huge timeline mismatch between the two. Dame and McCollum were almost exactly the same age and developed together as young player like MJ/Scottie, Stockton/Malone, Steph/Thompson/Green, and Tatum/Brown.
We need to cultivate and develop Ant as our #1 and build around that. Dame just doesn’t fit. I still think Ant needs a #2 to grow and develop with because I continue to see Jaden as our #3. Maybe KAT can be his #2 because he’s not a high-volume scorer and is largely complementary to Ant. But I’d be fine trading KAT for a young talent with a timeline and game that aligns well with Ant.
Re: Damian Lillard Prediction Thread
Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2023 12:01 pm
by KG4Ever
Miami is trying to find a third team to take on Tyler Herro's contract. Its funny that not too long ago Herro was viewed as a foundational piece and untouchable in trade talks. Miami gave Herro a $130 M contract last October, so they believed in him then. Herro gets injured and Miami makes an improbable run to the finals without him and suddenly Herro is trash and Brooklyn wants compensation to take on his bad contract.
Anyway, I think Brooklyn is just posturing a bit to extract a better deal and, if not Brooklyn, I think Miami will find a taker for Herro where they can get some picks to reroute to Portland. I still see Miami as the most likely destination as they can offer their 2028 and 2030 picks, a 2029 swap, Jovic and pretty much anyone Portland wants other than Butler and Bam, plus whatever Herro can net them. I don't see a Philly swap as feasible as Harden's contract and mercurial personality just aren't appealing. Clippers might have even less to offer than Miami.