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Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:42 am
by FNG
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:44 am I see us going 2-2 in the next 4 which would keep us at a 54 win pace.
Cool, it's fun having different models going at the same time, and keep the updates coming. My model is a little more like Tim's, and if we go 2-2, the 2 anti-klunkers would get us back to 57 wins.

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:35 pm
by 60WinTim
Nuggets with a Klunker tonight! As were the Mavs against the Pacers. Pacers looked really good. And the Cavs knocked off the Celtics, without Mitchell.

Our next two opponents on the road? Pacers and Cavs...

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Wed Mar 06, 2024 6:35 am
by FNG
60WinTim wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:35 pm Nuggets with a Klunker tonight! As were the Mavs against the Pacers. Pacers looked really good. And the Cavs knocked off the Celtics, without Mitchell.

Our next two opponents on the road? Pacers and Cavs...
Ouch...but two chances for an anti!

Loved seeing Denver losing to a Booker-less Suns team...moves them into a tie with OkC with 57 wins (2 ahead of the Wolves), with a good chance of another Klunker in their next game against the Celtics.

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:09 am
by FNG
I may abandon this thread soon, because as I said in one of the KAT injury threads, I see the Wolves destined for low 50s wins and a 4th place finish. But last night surprised me as we Anti-Klunked against the Pacers. And with the Cavs missing several key players, we have a chance at another one tonight. So I'll continue to update my spreadsheet with the same formula (the 4 teams win all their home games, and win road games against teams with losing recoreds). Current projection:

Denver 57
OkC 57
Wolves 56
Clips 56

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:37 am
by 60WinTim
FNG wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:09 am I may abandon this thread soon, because as I said in one of the KAT injury threads, I see the Wolves destined for low 50s wins and a 4th place finish. But last night surprised me as we Anti-Klunked against the Pacers. And with the Cavs missing several key players, we have a chance at another one tonight. So I'll continue to update my spreadsheet with the same formula (the 4 teams win all their home games, and win road games against teams with losing recoreds). Current projection:

Denver 57
OkC 57
Wolves 56
Clips 56
It's still bunched up, that's for sure!

Before last night you had the Wolves 4th with 55 wins. It's easy to look at the projected records and get downhearted. But then you go look at the current standings, and hey, we ARE in 1st place!

At first glance the game tonight at the Cavs seems like a "schedule" loss. Tough team after a tough game the previous night. Sort of like that "at Kings, at Suns" back-to-back where the Wolves had a great win at the Kings with no KAT, but were then blown out by the Suns. Add in no KAT, probably no Monte, and a beat up ANT - it just does not have a good vibe. But as you said, the Cavs are down a couple key players. We are playing with house money, so there's a chance...

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:58 am
by Q-is-here
60WinTim wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:37 am
FNG wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:09 am I may abandon this thread soon, because as I said in one of the KAT injury threads, I see the Wolves destined for low 50s wins and a 4th place finish. But last night surprised me as we Anti-Klunked against the Pacers. And with the Cavs missing several key players, we have a chance at another one tonight. So I'll continue to update my spreadsheet with the same formula (the 4 teams win all their home games, and win road games against teams with losing recoreds). Current projection:

Denver 57
OkC 57
Wolves 56
Clips 56
It's still bunched up, that's for sure!

Before last night you had the Wolves 4th with 55 wins. It's easy to look at the projected records and get downhearted. But then you go look at the current standings, and hey, we ARE in 1st place!

At first glance the game tonight at the Cavs seems like a "schedule" loss. Tough team after a tough game the previous night. Sort of like that "at Kings, at Suns" back-to-back where the Wolves had a great win at the Kings with no KAT, but were then blown out by the Suns. Add in no KAT, probably no Monte, and a beat up ANT - it just does not have a good vibe. But as you said, the Cavs are down a couple key players. We are playing with house money, so there's a chance...
Mitchell, Mobley, and Strus out. That's pretty significant.

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:11 am
by Coolbreeze44
A win tonight would raise my forecast to 55 wins. A loss and we stay at 54.

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:19 am
by FNG
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:11 am A win tonight would raise my forecast to 55 wins. A loss and we stay at 54.
Cool and Tim, have you guys adjusted your models for the Towns injury? I have not, but I may have to if we don't play like we did last night. But my quick review suggests we may not win home games against Denver, GS, PHX and Cleveland, which would leave us at 52 wins...still probably good enough for 4th place.

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:30 am
by Coolbreeze44
FNG wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:19 am
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:11 am A win tonight would raise my forecast to 55 wins. A loss and we stay at 54.
Cool and Tim, have you guys adjusted your models for the Towns injury? I have not, but I may have to if we don't play like we did last night. But my quick review suggests we may not win home games against Denver, GS, PHX and Cleveland, which would leave us at 52 wins...still probably good enough for 4th place.
I have not. I'm going to see how it goes this road trip before making any adjustments. I had us going 4-2, so if we can win 3 of the next 5 we would still be on track.

Re: Playoffs predictor

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:19 pm
by 60WinTim
I have also not made any adjustment. The KOM has us going 2-4 on the road trip, although it is now 3-3 with our first post-all-star anti-klunker under our belts!