Playoffs predictor

[FNG]

We're into the stretch drive, so I have prepared my spreadsheet forecasting how the top 4 teams in the West will end up. I have decided not to include teams outside the top 4, but will add any team that begins to challenge. My formula is usually a little more simplistic than Tim's, so sometimes we differ slightly...Tim, looking forward to seeing your Klunk-o-meter updates! My formula is this: all 4 teams win every home game (I know...very simplistic), and lose road games against teams with winning records. If a key injury occurs to any team, I may alter the formula.

Anyway, fasten your seat belts, because my spreadsheet forecasts a ridiculously close race! OkC may move into first for a period of time, but will fall out when they go on a brutal road trip in early April to face the Knicks, Sixers, Celtics and Pacers. Here's how my spreadsheet looks right now:

Wolves: 58 wins
Clippers: 57
Thunder: 57
Nuggets: 56

Obviously no margin for error. I have the Wolves beating the Bucks Friday night, so just one loss there drops us into a tie with whomever wins the Clips/Thunder tilt...gotta beat the Bucks! Let's go Wolves!

[60WinTim]

Dang it, FNG! You forced me to spend a couple hours playing with my KOM spreadsheet, typing in all the relevant playoff teams' remaining schedules and seeing how it shakes out when I shift teams between tiers...

I'll post my standings somewhere down the line, but the top four West teams always come out on top in a very bunched group. The Pelicans pretty much always land in 5th. The Mavs and Suns are neck-and neck for that 6th spot. Which leaves the Suns, Lakers and Warriors bunched in the 8-10 spots. The Suns, by far, have the toughest remaining schedule amongst the West playoff teams, which is why they can't even get in the mix for the 6th seed.

[Carlos Danger]

Interesting see others methodology for predicting. Here is mine....I use a range.

Top range - I assume we continue at our current winning percentage (.709). That would mean 19 more wins out of the final 27 games and we finish with 58.

Bottom range...I default to .500 basketball as a worst case scenario for this year's squad. So 14 wins over the final 27 puts us at 53 wins.

Therefore, my final range is 53-58 wins which seems fairly reasonable at the moment.

[60WinTim]

Interesting see others methodology for predicting. Here is mine....I use a range.

Top range - I assume we continue at our current winning percentage (.709). That would mean 19 more wins out of the final 27 games and we finish with 58.

Bottom range...I default to .500 basketball as a worst case scenario for this year's squad. So 14 wins over the final 27 puts us at 53 wins.

Therefore, my final range is 53-58 wins which seems fairly reasonable at the moment.

Yup! I need the Wolves to win 5 straight to put them back on the path for 60 wins!

[Q-is-here]

The one thing that seems like close to a sure thing, barring major injuries, is that we stay as a top four seed, which would assure a first round home advantage.

I think the team should have three goals for the rest of the regular season: 1) build on the offensive improvement we saw in the game leading up to the ASB...more 3's attempted, fewer turnovers; 2) stay healthy and fresh; and 3) stay in the top four of the West.

I do not think staying as the #1 seed, as great as that would be, should supersede staying healthy and fresh. I know that Ant is going to play unless he literally can't drag himself onto the court, but vets like Rudy, Conley, and even KAT need to be protected at all costs. Being conservative with their injury designations and resting them as precautionary should take precedent.

[Leado01]

Dang it, FNG! You forced me to spend a couple hours playing with my KOM spreadsheet, typing in all the relevant playoff teams' remaining schedules and seeing how it shakes out when I shift teams between tiers...

I'll post my standings somewhere down the line, but the top four West teams always come out on top in a very bunched group. The Pelicans pretty much always land in 5th. The Mavs and Suns are neck-and neck for that 6th spot. Which leaves the Suns, Lakers and Warriors bunched in the 8-10 spots. The Suns, by far, have the toughest remaining schedule amongst the West playoff teams, which is why they can't even get in the mix for the 6th seed.

I'm beginning to think you will finally win the pre-season predictions poll.

[60WinTim]

Dang it, FNG! You forced me to spend a couple hours playing with my KOM spreadsheet, typing in all the relevant playoff teams' remaining schedules and seeing how it shakes out when I shift teams between tiers...

I'll post my standings somewhere down the line, but the top four West teams always come out on top in a very bunched group. The Pelicans pretty much always land in 5th. The Mavs and Suns are neck-and neck for that 6th spot. Which leaves the Suns, Lakers and Warriors bunched in the 8-10 spots. The Suns, by far, have the toughest remaining schedule amongst the West playoff teams, which is why they can't even get in the mix for the 6th seed.

I'm beginning to think you will finally win the pre-season predictions poll.

Well, that sounds like a jinx if I've ever heard one!

No klunkers (or anti-klunkers) for any of the West teams, although the East had a couple.

[Wolvesfan21]

The one thing that seems like close to a sure thing, barring major injuries, is that we stay as a top four seed, which would assure a first round home advantage.

I think the team should have three goals for the rest of the regular season: 1) build on the offensive improvement we saw in the game leading up to the ASB...more 3's attempted, fewer turnovers; 2) stay healthy and fresh; and 3) stay in the top four of the West.

I do not think staying as the #1 seed, as great as that would be, should supersede staying healthy and fresh. I know that Ant is going to play unless he literally can't drag himself onto the court, but vets like Rudy, Conley, and even KAT need to be protected at all costs. Being conservative with their injury designations and resting them as precautionary should take precedent.

I would like to see the 1 seed for sure. But balance is also needed and I think the Wolves are doing a good job so far as doing that. They have given Conley some rest when dinged up or off back to backs. Ant came back a bit early then they had him rest to get back to health.

Having that extra home game in the playoffs could be the difference between advancing and not. I heard the Conley interview from yesterday and it seems like they are all on the same page. You try and win every game (the next game up), let the coaches and staff focus on the long term with occasional rest if needed.

[Q-is-here]

The one thing that seems like close to a sure thing, barring major injuries, is that we stay as a top four seed, which would assure a first round home advantage.

I think the team should have three goals for the rest of the regular season: 1) build on the offensive improvement we saw in the game leading up to the ASB...more 3's attempted, fewer turnovers; 2) stay healthy and fresh; and 3) stay in the top four of the West.

I do not think staying as the #1 seed, as great as that would be, should supersede staying healthy and fresh. I know that Ant is going to play unless he literally can't drag himself onto the court, but vets like Rudy, Conley, and even KAT need to be protected at all costs. Being conservative with their injury designations and resting them as precautionary should take precedent.

I would like to see the 1 seed for sure. But balance is also needed and I think the Wolves are doing a good job so far as doing that. They have given Conley some rest when dinged up or off back to backs. Ant came back a bit early then they had him rest to get back to health.

Having that extra home game in the playoffs could be the difference between advancing and not. I heard the Conley interview from yesterday and it seems like they are all on the same page. You try and win every game (the next game up), let the coaches and staff focus on the long term with occasional rest if needed.

I agree that they have been pretty conservative with Conley. I just think they should tilt in that direction just a little more as the regular season winds down.

[60WinTim]

The one thing that seems like close to a sure thing, barring major injuries, is that we stay as a top four seed, which would assure a first round home advantage.

I think the team should have three goals for the rest of the regular season: 1) build on the offensive improvement we saw in the game leading up to the ASB...more 3's attempted, fewer turnovers; 2) stay healthy and fresh; and 3) stay in the top four of the West.

I do not think staying as the #1 seed, as great as that would be, should supersede staying healthy and fresh. I know that Ant is going to play unless he literally can't drag himself onto the court, but vets like Rudy, Conley, and even KAT need to be protected at all costs. Being conservative with their injury designations and resting them as precautionary should take precedent.

I would like to see the 1 seed for sure. But balance is also needed and I think the Wolves are doing a good job so far as doing that. They have given Conley some rest when dinged up or off back to backs. Ant came back a bit early then they had him rest to get back to health.

Having that extra home game in the playoffs could be the difference between advancing and not. I heard the Conley interview from yesterday and it seems like they are all on the same page. You try and win every game (the next game up), let the coaches and staff focus on the long term with occasional rest if needed.

I agree that they have been pretty conservative with Conley. I just think they should tilt in that direction just a little more as the regular season winds down.

Yup! Hopefully that is the benefit of acquiring Monte. It will be interesting to watch how the minutes are shared over the remainder of the season.