Minnesota Sports Forum

I'm going to take a step back and pass for now on identifying who I'd take at #1, 17 or 33. I won't share my evolving draft board yet since it remains in flux. But after watching a ton of videos and reading everything I've been able to find, I have a list of guys in this draft who stand out for me as players I'd love to add to our roster. It's more a gut reaction than anything, although it factors in their college stats as well. The prospects I'm talking about just seem to have a special quality in their games and mental make-up that tells me they're going to be very good NBA players. Here's my list in no particular order:

Okongwu
Vassell
Haliburton
Patrick Williams
Paul Reed
Tyrell Terry
Saddiq Bey

I'd like to see the Wolves end up with two or three of these guys. The two whose upside potential excite me the most are Patrick Williams and Tyrell Terry. I see some Kawhi in Williams and some Steph Curry or at least some CJ McCollum.

I'm convinced the Wizards will try hard to move Beal on draft night. The Wizards' organization is telling the outside world that Beal is not available and that they're looking forward to pairing him again with the returning Jon Wall. But of course, that's just posturing. The Wizards are going nowhere even if Wall returns as the player he was before his injury and I doubt Wall will be as good as he once was. Even when they were both playing together and Wall was in his prime, the Wizards didn't accomplish much. So the Wizards organization has to know it's time for them to rebuild. And they'll never get more value for Beal than they will now. Moreover, they'll have two teams at the top of the draft who everyone knows are more interested in trading their respective picks than keeping them. The result could be a bidding war between the Wolves and Warriors that drives up the price for Beal.

At a minimum, I would expect the Wizards to ask the Wolves for all three of their picks this year along with Culver, Okogie and Naz Reid. The Wolves would have to include Johnson to match salaries, which would be an added benefit for the Wizards because they would free up more cap space in a year. In my view this would be a great deal for the Wizards. Would it be a good deal for the Wolves? I suspect that most on this Board would do this deal if they were running the Wolves.

The Warriors could offer their #2 pick along with Wiggins, Paschall and the Wolves minimally-protected first round pick in 2021. Paschall and the Wolves 2021 pick would be tempting to the Wizards, but I think they'd opt for the Wolves deal. Getting the Wolves three picks this year plus last year's #6 pick would be a big jump start for the Wizards rebuild. I don't think the Warriors would do this deal. In fact, I don't see them particularly interested in acquiring Beal. I see the Warriors trying to swap picks with the Suns and acquire Oubre. That's the sort of winning deal I'd expect from the Warriors.

there's not a chance in hell Washington trades Beal. They don't wanna trade him and he doesn't wanna get moved. They don't need to posture any more than this team would the day they decide they wanna move on from Towns.

I read a pretty good article in Forbes today about the draft dilemma this year about whether to swing for the fence or play it safe. Here are some key excerpts:

"The Minnesota Timberwolves, who have the first pick of the draft, find themselves in a tough spot. While you rarely would want to use the first overall selection on anything but a star, there remains considerable question marks over the candidates projected to get selected in the top, in just under two months.

Does that mean the Wolves should go for a safe player and thus avoid finding themselves in the situation the Cleveland Cavaliers found themselves in after the 2013 draft, when they selected Anthony Bennett, who could barely crack an NBA rotation? Or should the Wolves gamble and go all-in on a risky high-upside, low-floor player such as Anthony Edwards, whose physical build and athletic prowess could catapult him into superstardom, but where major areas such as maturity and a higher level of basketball knowledge are in question?

This year, probably more than ever before, that should be a legitimate debate to have internally.

Select a role player, like Devin Vassell, who may top out as a decent starter, and the Wolves would get criticized for not maximizing their draft value. Select a high-upside player who completely busts, and the Wolves will be ridiculed for wasting the top pick over the next decade. History never looks back with much context.

It might appear simplistic to boil this all down to Edwards versus Vassell, but there is some intrigue in lining those two up against each other, given what they represent.

Vassell, a steady wing with established 3&D capabilities would come into the NBA and have a strong shot at producing immediately, and for a long time. At 6'7, 195, he's got enough size to play multiple positions, and could probably find himself playing some power forward in smaller lineups as he builds up his body.
Vassell is widely viewed as an attractive prospect given his low bust risk and positional size. While he's currently projected to go in the mid-to-late lottery, some teams expect him to be off the board a lot sooner.

Edwards, on the other hand, is the high-upside play. The 6'5, 225 off-guard probably has the biggest potential for anyone in the draft, especially seen from a perspective of physicality and explosiveness.
Edwards is by no means a safe selection, however. During his lone season at Georgia, Edwards displayed a shot-selection process in much need of improvement, and his decision making was frequently problematic. To make matters worse, numerous experts noticed long stretches of indifference, which is a red flag for many NBA teams. Checking out of games mentally puts a significant cap on a player's ceiling, which puts Edwards in a tough spot. In short, selecting Edwards comes with significantly larger risk than Vassell.

It's that risk factor that needs to be examined a bit closer. Some teams might look at Edwards and deem his upside more attractive than the safeness of Vassell, whereas others might be a bit more conservative.

That means teams will have to go into this draft with a clear priority on certain players. If the Wolves deem Edwards, or someone else who is projected to get drafted in that range, too attractive through the lens of long-term optics, and thus worth the risk, then that's what they should plan for. If a team is a single piece away from maybe improving to the point where they could fight for a playoff spot, and they wish to walk away with a piece they feel is more safe, but doesn't have tremendous upside, that too would be a fine approach.

What really should be taken away from the upcoming draft is this: Given the lack of assurances in prospect upside, the lack of a clear-cut top-tier group, and the overall weirdness of the draft this year, fans and observers need to understand that teams are going to take many different approaches to things this year, while potentially doing things differently than they normally would."

This article's analysis of Edwards as an option for the Wolves can easily apply to Ball or Wiseman. Rosas and his team have their work cut out for them.