It's time to move on from DLO....

[WallyBall]

I think the Gobert deal ends the DLO trade discussion. I hereby declare this thread closed!!

But wait Lip! Let's take it one step further....

Question 1: Who see's an extension around the corner?

Question 2: How many people revolt in the streets if it happens?

I'm no Dlo apologist, but the answer may be: this team probably gives us the best change to see the best most consistent version of him, who "him" is is up for great debate!

[Q-is-here]

I think the Gobert deal ends the DLO trade discussion. I hereby declare this thread closed!!

But wait Lip! Let's take it one step further....

Question 1: Who see's an extension around the corner?

Question 2: How many people revolt in the streets if it happens?

I'm no Dlo apologist, but the answer may be: this team probably gives us the best change to see the best most consistent version of him, who "him" is is up for great debate!

Here is the new core: Ant, KAT, Rudy, Jaden. I include Jaden because the front office has practically declared him untouchable, even though among the four he has the largest gap between performance and how he's valued as an asset.

So if you feel confident in this core of four guys that are mostly complimentary to each other and can carry a big work load on both ends, then that 5th starter becomes a bit less mission-critical. Conclusion: You don't sign DLO to an extension. And besides, I don't even think DLO and his agent would accept the number our front office would peg his value at even if they were willing to extend him.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Minnesota should have been exploring an extension with D'Angelo Russell since the end of the season, or at the very least communicating about the matter. Perhaps they were; perhaps they weren't. Those are the intricate details we're unaware of as fans, but it has always made sense [to me] to retain him beyond this upcoming season at a reasonable price given his positive effect on the team and their best players -- Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. Consider the following:

D'Angelo Russell + Anthony Edwards + Karl-Anthony Towns: (1,137 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 117.0
Defensive Rating: 109.6
Net Rating: 7.4

D'Angelo Russell + Karl-Anthony Towns: (298 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 117.7
Defensive Rating: 113.0
Net Rating: 4.7

D'Angelo Russell + Anthony Edwards: (210 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 105.7
Defensive Rating: 100.2
Net Rating: 5.4

Anthony Edwards + Karl-Anthony Towns: (749 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 110.7
Defensive Rating: 111.2
Net Rating: -0.5

This is a simplistic approach to analyzing the data, but the idea here is that Russell's ability to handle the ball and facilitate the offense -- allowing both Towns and Edwards to focus primarily on scoring -- has made all the difference in terms of effectiveness. Neither Towns nor Edwards are natural shot creators for their teammates and when they're asked to take on that responsibility we've often seen offensive lulls stemming from an excess of isolation basketball. In short, the ball sticks and Minnesota turns into a selfish basketball team. Like him or hate him, Russell gets his teammates involved and that's a skill that this roster sorely lacks.

And as I've mentioned before, the Timberwolves can no longer allow Russell to simply walk in free agency, without compensation, as there's no real benefit in doing so. They likely won't have meaningful cap space next summer no matter what they do and the free agent pool is weak anyways. Furthermore, as a team operating over the cap the next handful of years they can't afford to lose Russell's salary slot on the payroll. Rather, they either need to pay him and retain a very good player, or trade him for a useful piece(s) with an additional year(s) on their deal so that the Wolves can maintain their flexibility as it pertains to matching salaries in the future.

[Q-is-here]

May be either side will surprise me, but I just have a hard time seeing DLO take anything less than $25-30M and our front office offering anything more than ~ $20M. I'm certainly no cap or contract expert, so may be there are some creative ways to make it work. Or may be Gobert changes the calculus on this.

[Monster]

I think the Gobert deal ends the DLO trade discussion. I hereby declare this thread closed!!

But wait Lip! Let's take it one step further....

Question 1: Who see's an extension around the corner?

Question 2: How many people revolt in the streets if it happens?

I'm no Dlo apologist, but the answer may be: this team probably gives us the best change to see the best most consistent version of him, who "him" is is up for great debate!

Here is the new core: Ant, KAT, Rudy, Jaden. I include Jaden because the front office has practically declared him untouchable, even though among the four he has the largest gap between performance and how he's valued as an asset.

So if you feel confident in this core of four guys that are mostly complimentary to each other and can carry a big work load on both ends, then that 5th starter becomes a bit less mission-critical. Conclusion: You don't sign DLO to an extension. And besides, I don't even think DLO and his agent would accept the number our front office would peg his value at even if they were willing to extend him.

Q when I look at that group I see a lack of shot creation off the dribble. I'm not saying the Wolves should sign Russell to an extension (totally agree with your conclusion of where Russell and the Wolves are at on that) but I also think unless McDaniels takes off as a shot creator or something that starting lineup needs someone at guard who can actually score and/or make plays for others not just play D and maybe hit an open 3. I think it's worth noting Boston keeps acquiring ball handlers. To me if there is an extension signed it will be in season after both sides can tell this is gonna work or not even if it could go the wrong direction after X amount of games. I do think the Gobert trade makes Russell staying long term much more likely than before. Again Russell could be traded and it would not shock me either.

[Lipoli390]

I think the Gobert deal ends the DLO trade discussion. I hereby declare this thread closed!!

But wait Lip! Let's take it one step further....

Question 1: Who see's an extension around the corner?

Question 2: How many people revolt in the streets if it happens?

I'm no Dlo apologist, but the answer may be: this team probably gives us the best change to see the best most consistent version of him, who "him" is is up for great debate!

Here is the new core: Ant, KAT, Rudy, Jaden. I include Jaden because the front office has practically declared him untouchable, even though among the four he has the largest gap between performance and how he's valued as an asset.

So if you feel confident in this core of four guys that are mostly complimentary to each other and can carry a big work load on both ends, then that 5th starter becomes a bit less mission-critical. Conclusion: You don't sign DLO to an extension. And besides, I don't even think DLO and his agent would accept the number our front office would peg his value at even if they were willing to extend him.

Q - I agree with you on our "new core." I certainly see DLO's value to the team and I have no doubt Finch and Connelly do to. But like you, I don't see DLO as part of our core and I suspect Finch and Connelly don't either. Before the Gobert trade think the Wolves front office had a pretty firm cap on what they'd be willing to pay DLO. They knew they'd have a of financial flexibility and assets to trade next summer to shore up the PG spot if DLO walked. The arrival of Gobert has changed the calculus, but I'm not sure it changes what the Wolves are willing to pay DLO. On the one hand, the Wolves won't have anything close to the financial flexibility or trade assets they previously had to replace DLO with a good PG. That suggests they'd be willing to pay DLO more to keep him since they'd have to rely on cap exceptions to pay a DLO replacement. On the other hand, you're right that the arrival of Gobert effectively drops the PG position from our 3rd starter to our 4th or 5th - depending on the development of McDaniels. And that makes the PG position less critical. It will be interesting to see how things go.

If I were Connelly I wouldn't extend DLO this year unless he's willing to accept around $15m per year. I'd want to see how he plays and whether he stays healthy over the course of the season before making any decision. If he has a great season, then i see the Wolves paying him his market price to keep him because it's clear the Wolves organization is already contemplating payment of the luxury tax in a couple years. The only concern I'd have to overpaying DLO is the impact of his contract on his tradability. The Gobert trade left the Wolves core in tact, but it severely depleted the Wolves trade assets. I would think the Wolves would like to ensure that DLO can be traded for value if things aren't going well for the team.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

May be either side will surprise me, but I just have a hard time seeing DLO take anything less than $25-30M and our front office offering anything more than ~ $20M. I'm certainly no cap or contract expert, so may be there are some creative ways to make it work. Or may be Gobert changes the calculus on this.

It's looking more likely that D'Angelo Russell bets on himself in a contract year, especially now that he has an elite screen setter and roll man to work with in Rudy Gobert. A big season from him could make him significantly more money as an unrestricted free agent next summer. But that's also why the Timberwolves should have been trying to get him locked up before it got to that point, in my opinion, and maybe they were/are. I really do believe his on-court value went up after the Gobert trade, though.

There's a potential scenario where Minnesota would offer Russell a three or four-year extension and front-load it beginning in 2023-24, which also happens to be the last year of Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels rookie deals.

For instance, let's say Russell agreed to a three-year, $90-million extension with eight-percent decreases annually. He'd make $32.6M, $30.0M, and $27.4M over those three years. He'd be making more money over those seasons than Jalen Brunson and Fred VanVleet (assuming he signs the four-year, $110-million extension), which should appease Russell and his agent considering what the market is for point guards below the top tier and what his productivity has been. He'd also be expiring the same year as Rudy Gobert, which could lead to some pretty interesting possibilities in itself. Not to mention, the cap is expected to rise approximately $15M annually as the NBA moves toward the new TV deal. Minnesota would still have to supplement the roster with affordable talent, and the money would be tight, but it's plenty do-able, I think.

[Q-is-here]

I think the Gobert deal ends the DLO trade discussion. I hereby declare this thread closed!!

But wait Lip! Let's take it one step further....

Question 1: Who see's an extension around the corner?

Question 2: How many people revolt in the streets if it happens?

I'm no Dlo apologist, but the answer may be: this team probably gives us the best change to see the best most consistent version of him, who "him" is is up for great debate!

Here is the new core: Ant, KAT, Rudy, Jaden. I include Jaden because the front office has practically declared him untouchable, even though among the four he has the largest gap between performance and how he's valued as an asset.

So if you feel confident in this core of four guys that are mostly complimentary to each other and can carry a big work load on both ends, then that 5th starter becomes a bit less mission-critical. Conclusion: You don't sign DLO to an extension. And besides, I don't even think DLO and his agent would accept the number our front office would peg his value at even if they were willing to extend him.

Q when I look at that group I see a lack of shot creation off the dribble. I'm not saying the Wolves should sign Russell to an extension (totally agree with your conclusion of where Russell and the Wolves are at on that) but I also think unless McDaniels takes off as a shot creator or something that starting lineup needs someone at guard who can actually score and/or make plays for others not just play D and maybe hit an open 3. I think it's worth noting Boston keeps acquiring ball handlers. To me if there is an extension signed it will be in season after both sides can tell this is gonna work or not even if it could go the wrong direction after X amount of games. I do think the Gobert trade makes Russell staying long term much more likely than before. Again Russell could be traded and it would not shock me either.

I feel like between KAT, Ant, Nowell, and SloMo we have four guys that have some shot creating capabilities. Granted, none of these guys are elite non-PG passers like Jokic or LeBron. But Nowell > Beasley as a ball handler and passer and SloMo is >>> than Vando in that department. So I feel like we are already upgrading in this area with the recent moves this offseason. And I expect Ant to keep improving in this area as he matures.

Does it mean we don't need a real PG? No, but may be the guy that eventually replaces DLO doesn't need to be a $20M+ PG. That's my point. And no, I don't know who that guy is or could be.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

First, I wouldn't be surprised if they still move DLO this offseason. In his press conference yesterday, Connelly almost seemed to indicate an interest in making another significant move this offseason, at one point checking with another front office guy before saying something, and then basically saying he shouldn't say any more. I might have misread that, but if they are looking to make another significant move, it's tough to imagine that wouldn't include DLO. And if we're not going to extend him, it makes sense to move him this offseason to get something in return.

But even as an admitted DLO skeptic, I am starting to think it might make sense to extend him for three reasons, the last of which is probably the most important.

1) I used to really dislike DLO because he's overpaid and he doesn't bring toughness or defense and I always thought he was immature, but last year he really changed my mind by improving as an off-ball defender and even as a bit of a vocal leader. He really was a better player last year, even though he did not have a very good playoff series. I still think he's way overpaid, but he was better than I thought last year.

2) With Gobert here, I think he could be more valuable than in the past because he should be very good at hitting Gobert with lobs, and Gobert also helps make his defensive weaknesses more manageable. It's definitely possible he increases his value this season as Cam suggests. If we can extend him at his market value now, it's reasonable to bet his value may go up next year and that contract will be a better deal, either for us, or for us to trade.

3) Locking him into an extension now could give us an asset to trade in the future, and ironically, could even give us the cap flexibility we'd need to stay competitive if the owners are willing to go into the tax. As I understand the rules once a team is over the cap, you can't just sign a free agent when you are over the cap without using one of the exceptions, which are fairly limited. But you can still trade contracts. So let's say we extend DLO for a couple more years at 25 million. Personally, I still think that's a couple million more than what his actual market value would likely be if he were a free agent this summer, but it could look like a decent deal next summer. In that case, even if he doesn't turn out to be a good fit for us, we'd probably be able to trade him next summer or the summer after that to bring in another player making within 15% of making 25 million. As I understand it, if we just let his contract expire, we wouldn't be able to sign a free agent outside of our exceptions since we'll probably still be over the cap next offseason because of KAT and Rudy's contracts. But if we have DLO under contract, we could trade him for somebody who could help us, assuming we still wouldn't want DLO after this year. Does this make sense? In other words, extending DLO at something like 25 million for a couple extra years might be a bit of an overpay, but in part what we'd be paying for is the opportunity to assemble a roster that can (if we choose to do so) have a payroll that goes way over the cap. That ability to spend a lot of money despite being over the cap could end up being pretty valuable to keeping this team as competitive as possible. If I'm misunderstanding how this works with the cap, could somebody explain it to me? Like I'm a child. Or a golden retriever.

[Monster]

First, I wouldn't be surprised if they still move DLO this offseason. In his press conference yesterday, Connelly almost seemed to indicate an interest in making another significant move this offseason, at one point checking with another front office guy before saying something, and then basically saying he shouldn't say any more. I might have misread that, but if they are looking to make another significant move, it's tough to imagine that wouldn't include DLO. And if we're not going to extend him, it makes sense to move him this offseason to get something in return.

But even as an admitted DLO skeptic, I am starting to think it might make sense to extend him for three reasons, the last of which is probably the most important.

1) I used to really dislike DLO because he's overpaid and he doesn't bring toughness or defense and I always thought he was immature, but last year he really changed my mind by improving as an off-ball defender and even as a bit of a vocal leader. He really was a better player last year, even though he did not have a very good playoff series. I still think he's way overpaid, but he was better than I thought last year.

2) With Gobert here, I think he could be more valuable than in the past because he should be very good at hitting Gobert with lobs, and Gobert also helps make his defensive weaknesses more manageable. It's definitely possible he increases his value this season as Cam suggests. If we can extend him at his market value now, it's reasonable to bet his value may go up next year and that contract will be a better deal, either for us, or for us to trade.

3) Locking him into an extension now could give us an asset to trade in the future, and ironically, could even give us the cap flexibility we'd need to stay competitive if the owners are willing to go into the tax. As I understand the rules once a team is over the cap, you can't just sign a free agent when you are over the cap without using one of the exceptions, which are fairly limited. But you can still trade contracts. So let's say we extend DLO for a couple more years at 25 million. Personally, I still think that's a couple million more than what his actual market value would likely be if he were a free agent this summer, but it could look like a decent deal next summer. In that case, even if he doesn't turn out to be a good fit for us, we'd probably be able to trade him next summer or the summer after that to bring in another player making within 15% of making 25 million. As I understand it, if we just let his contract expire, we wouldn't be able to sign a free agent outside of our exceptions since we'll probably still be over the cap next offseason because of KAT and Rudy's contracts. But if we have DLO under contract, we could trade him for somebody who could help us, assuming we still wouldn't want DLO after this year. Does this make sense? In other words, extending DLO at something like 25 million for a couple extra years might be a bit of an overpay, but in part what we'd be paying for is the opportunity to assemble a roster that can (if we choose to do so) have a payroll that goes way over the cap. That ability to spend a lot of money despite being over the cap could end up being pretty valuable to keeping this team as competitive as possible. If I'm misunderstanding how this works with the cap, could somebody explain it to me? Like I'm a child. Or a golden retriever.

Connelly referred to Manny Rohan because he can't actually talk about either the signings of Anderson or Bryan Forbes and he almost said something. That's what that was about.