It's time to move on from DLO....
It's time to move on from DLO....
Let me first say that I'm not anti-DLO. The trade for him was the right thing to do and he helped this franchise go from chronically bad to good.
My main issue at this point is fit. The continued emergence of Anthony Edwards this past season (and in the playoffs) has made it clear that he needs the ball in his hands more. It makes no sense that Ant, KAT, and DLO essentially have the same usage rate while on the floor together. Literally no other really good team with two scorers like Ant and KAT in their starting lineup have another guy that uses up a quarter of the possessions.
I wouldn't have a problem with this if DLO was an efficient scorer. But we've seen through 7 seasons that he's at best average in this area. Ant is already more efficient and he's only 20!
Now if DLO were coming off the bench, that would be a different story. Lots of good teams have 6th men that carry a very high usage rate. But he'd never accept a role like that. And besides, I've already made a reservation for Jaylen Nowell for that spot!
I don't know if we can pull off a trade this offseason or not. I'm willing to go another year with DLO on an expiring deal if we can't get any value in return. But I am NOT in favor of re-signing him. It's not about his talent level or money. It's about fit.
My main issue at this point is fit. The continued emergence of Anthony Edwards this past season (and in the playoffs) has made it clear that he needs the ball in his hands more. It makes no sense that Ant, KAT, and DLO essentially have the same usage rate while on the floor together. Literally no other really good team with two scorers like Ant and KAT in their starting lineup have another guy that uses up a quarter of the possessions.
I wouldn't have a problem with this if DLO was an efficient scorer. But we've seen through 7 seasons that he's at best average in this area. Ant is already more efficient and he's only 20!
Now if DLO were coming off the bench, that would be a different story. Lots of good teams have 6th men that carry a very high usage rate. But he'd never accept a role like that. And besides, I've already made a reservation for Jaylen Nowell for that spot!
I don't know if we can pull off a trade this offseason or not. I'm willing to go another year with DLO on an expiring deal if we can't get any value in return. But I am NOT in favor of re-signing him. It's not about his talent level or money. It's about fit.
Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
Q-was-here wrote:Let me first say that I'm not anti-DLO. The trade for him was the right thing to do and he helped this franchise go from chronically bad to good.
My main issue at this point is fit. The continued emergence of Anthony Edwards this past season (and in the playoffs) has made it clear that he needs the ball in his hands more. It makes no sense that Ant, KAT, and DLO essentially have the same usage rate while on the floor together. Literally no other really good team with two scorers like Ant and KAT in their starting lineup have another guy that uses up a quarter of the possessions.
I wouldn't have a problem with this if DLO was an efficient scorer. But we've seen through 7 seasons that he's at best average in this area. Ant is already more efficient and he's only 20!
Now if DLO were coming off the bench, that would be a different story. Lots of good teams have 6th men that carry a very high usage rate. But he'd never accept a role like that. And besides, I've already made a reservation for Jaylen Nowell for that spot!
I don't know if we can pull off a trade this offseason or not. I'm willing to go another year with DLO on an expiring deal if we can't get any value in return. But I am NOT in favor of re-signing him. It's not about his talent level or money. It's about fit.
What usage would you be comfortable with Russell being at?
- Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
D'Angelo Russell:
Offensive Rating: 114.5
Defensive Rating: 109.8
Net Rating: 4.7
D'Angelo Russell + Anthony Edwards + Karl-Anthony Towns: (1,137 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 117.0
Defensive Rating: 109.6
Net Rating: 7.4
D'Angelo Russell + Karl-Anthony Towns: (298 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 117.7
Defensive Rating: 113.0
Net Rating: 4.7
D'Angelo Russell + Anthony Edwards: (210 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 105.7
Defensive Rating: 100.2
Net Rating: 5.4
Anthony Edwards + Karl-Anthony Towns: (749 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 110.7
Defensive Rating: 111.2
Net Rating: -0.5
With Russell -- Without Russell:
Offensive Rating: 117.0 -- 110.7
True Shooting Percentage: 60.9 -- 57.4
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 57.2 -- 52.7
The bottom line is that fit is a big reason why you keep D'Angelo Russell around. He's proven to fit well alongside Minnesota's two volume scorers in Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, so much so that when he's off the floor the two of them are less effective in general. And the reason for that can simply boil down to Russell being a really good playmaker or shot creator for himself and others whereas Minnesota's other top players really struggle to consistently set up their teammates. You need Russell to be significantly involved or else the ball will stagnate and the offense becomes much easier to defend. Edwards has made it known that he doesn't want full ball-handling duties, and that's a good thing considering he's not even close to being ready to take on those responsibilities. Additionally, Towns doesn't have the capabilities or patience to run an offense in the same way Nikola Jokic does from the center position. Edwards and Towns are shot-takers, not shot-creators (for others) and that's why their individual offensive outputs, as well as the team's, drops when Russell doesn't share the floor with them.
I've also discussed this in greater depth in past threads, but we saw the significant impact Russell had on this team this season and that was with perhaps his worst career year as a catch-and-shoot marksman from three. Considering he's consistently shot it above 39-percent on shots of this type on solid volume, we can easily see room for improvement on his 34-percent value from this season. If he simply regresses back to who he's been the last handful of years as a perimeter shooter, then his value and on-court impact will rise even more than it was this year. Nothing is ever guaranteed in that department, but it's a solid bet that Russell shoots it better next season further demonstrating his fit alongside Towns and Edwards as the third banana.
This is all to say that if we're talking about FIT on the team, especially as it pertains to playing alongside Towns and Edwards, then Russell is definitely worth keeping around for next season and possibly beyond that. Most numbers indicate that he's a legitimate reason for the Timberwolves' improved play (and winning) and that they would have fared worse without him. What is up for debate is, once again, how much to pay him long-term. The money aspect is the issue, not his fit.
Offensive Rating: 114.5
Defensive Rating: 109.8
Net Rating: 4.7
D'Angelo Russell + Anthony Edwards + Karl-Anthony Towns: (1,137 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 117.0
Defensive Rating: 109.6
Net Rating: 7.4
D'Angelo Russell + Karl-Anthony Towns: (298 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 117.7
Defensive Rating: 113.0
Net Rating: 4.7
D'Angelo Russell + Anthony Edwards: (210 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 105.7
Defensive Rating: 100.2
Net Rating: 5.4
Anthony Edwards + Karl-Anthony Towns: (749 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 110.7
Defensive Rating: 111.2
Net Rating: -0.5
With Russell -- Without Russell:
Offensive Rating: 117.0 -- 110.7
True Shooting Percentage: 60.9 -- 57.4
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 57.2 -- 52.7
The bottom line is that fit is a big reason why you keep D'Angelo Russell around. He's proven to fit well alongside Minnesota's two volume scorers in Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, so much so that when he's off the floor the two of them are less effective in general. And the reason for that can simply boil down to Russell being a really good playmaker or shot creator for himself and others whereas Minnesota's other top players really struggle to consistently set up their teammates. You need Russell to be significantly involved or else the ball will stagnate and the offense becomes much easier to defend. Edwards has made it known that he doesn't want full ball-handling duties, and that's a good thing considering he's not even close to being ready to take on those responsibilities. Additionally, Towns doesn't have the capabilities or patience to run an offense in the same way Nikola Jokic does from the center position. Edwards and Towns are shot-takers, not shot-creators (for others) and that's why their individual offensive outputs, as well as the team's, drops when Russell doesn't share the floor with them.
I've also discussed this in greater depth in past threads, but we saw the significant impact Russell had on this team this season and that was with perhaps his worst career year as a catch-and-shoot marksman from three. Considering he's consistently shot it above 39-percent on shots of this type on solid volume, we can easily see room for improvement on his 34-percent value from this season. If he simply regresses back to who he's been the last handful of years as a perimeter shooter, then his value and on-court impact will rise even more than it was this year. Nothing is ever guaranteed in that department, but it's a solid bet that Russell shoots it better next season further demonstrating his fit alongside Towns and Edwards as the third banana.
This is all to say that if we're talking about FIT on the team, especially as it pertains to playing alongside Towns and Edwards, then Russell is definitely worth keeping around for next season and possibly beyond that. Most numbers indicate that he's a legitimate reason for the Timberwolves' improved play (and winning) and that they would have fared worse without him. What is up for debate is, once again, how much to pay him long-term. The money aspect is the issue, not his fit.
- AbeVigodaLive
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Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
I'm cool with D. Russell being off this team.
We can all pick-and-choose which metrics make him look better/worse than he probably is. We can all pick-and-choose what makes him a good/bad fit. Or what about him expands/limits the team's ceiling with him as a key cog.
But from the beginning, I was clear that I'm not a fan of his style of play. Sometimes, it's as simple as that.
We can all pick-and-choose which metrics make him look better/worse than he probably is. We can all pick-and-choose what makes him a good/bad fit. Or what about him expands/limits the team's ceiling with him as a key cog.
But from the beginning, I was clear that I'm not a fan of his style of play. Sometimes, it's as simple as that.
Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
I'm cool with Dlo at a fair price, which in my mind is somewhere at a max of 25mil moving forward. I doubt Dlo feels the same way, therefore a deal may be the way to go. He doesn't strike me as the type of personality that will remain engaged with a paycut.
Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
Cam, all valid points and it's why I think DLO really helped this team climb out of the abyss. But I'm talking about the future at this point and someday trying to win 55+ games. The only way that happens is for Ant to grow as a playmaker and for our defense to continue improving.
Ant doesn't have to bring the ball up the floor for this to happen or even switch to full-time PG. One thing that almost ALWAYS improves with these young perimeter scorers is their play making and assists. I'm confident he'll get better at it with time.
Ant doesn't have to bring the ball up the floor for this to happen or even switch to full-time PG. One thing that almost ALWAYS improves with these young perimeter scorers is their play making and assists. I'm confident he'll get better at it with time.
Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
monsterpile wrote:Q-was-here wrote:Let me first say that I'm not anti-DLO. The trade for him was the right thing to do and he helped this franchise go from chronically bad to good.
My main issue at this point is fit. The continued emergence of Anthony Edwards this past season (and in the playoffs) has made it clear that he needs the ball in his hands more. It makes no sense that Ant, KAT, and DLO essentially have the same usage rate while on the floor together. Literally no other really good team with two scorers like Ant and KAT in their starting lineup have another guy that uses up a quarter of the possessions.
I wouldn't have a problem with this if DLO was an efficient scorer. But we've seen through 7 seasons that he's at best average in this area. Ant is already more efficient and he's only 20!
Now if DLO were coming off the bench, that would be a different story. Lots of good teams have 6th men that carry a very high usage rate. But he'd never accept a role like that. And besides, I've already made a reservation for Jaylen Nowell for that spot!
I don't know if we can pull off a trade this offseason or not. I'm willing to go another year with DLO on an expiring deal if we can't get any value in return. But I am NOT in favor of re-signing him. It's not about his talent level or money. It's about fit.
What usage would you be comfortable with Russell being at?
Probably no more than 20%, which just isn't going to happen. And besides that, he's not really playing to his strengths at that point. That's why it's a fit issue to me.
Kek put it best in another thread from a week or two ago. DLO is the kind of guy that helps take a team from bad to mediocre or even good. And unless he transforms his identity as a player, I'm not sure he can be on a title contending team.
- Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
What's the plan? Is Minnesota in win-now mode? What's the objective or goal if you move on from D'Angelo Russell? I'm not picking on Q here just because he started the thread, but rather asking everyone who seems to support the idea that Minnesota should move on from Russell either this summer or next. What is your actual plan -- with Russell removed -- that leads to a better team? I've seen numerous comments that he needs to go, but I have yet to see any real suggestion or theory that leads to hypothetical improvement in the form of wins. It's either Russell needs to go because of aesthetic reasons, or Russell needs to go because he doesn't fit what your idea of a contender looks like, or some other unsubstantiated reason. What's the blueprint? How does Minnesota get better by moving on? I'm honestly willing to listen, or in this case read, the layout on exactly how the Wolves take the next step despite losing their second or third most important player. In my opinion, it's too soon in Minnesota's trajectory to make that kind of decision, but if there's a plan in mind then by all means please share.
The "best" and perhaps only realistic idea I've seen is essentially overpaying Tyus Jones to replace Russell, but I actually think Minnesota gets significantly worse in that scenario. Do the Wolves reach for Kennedy Chandler, Jean Montero, or some other unproven draft prospect with hopes that they'll be better than Russell two or three years from now? It's unlikely that a mid-late round prospect would play anywhere near the level Russell played at this past season right away. On a different note, what objectively better NBA point guard(s) are available right now or potentially next summer that Minnesota could either acquire or sign as a free agent? I've looked at expected free agent lists for this summer and next and the only clear upgrade that makes sense, in my opinion, would be Fred VanVleet. How realistic is it that Toronto allows him to walk? How likely is it that he would sign with Minnesota if he decided to sign with another team? If you're putting all of your marbles into the VanVleet idea, then fine, I get that.
I'll end with some repetitive questions. What is the plan? How does Minnesota get better? Simply suggesting that Russell needs to go in order for the Wolves to get better without providing some kind of better alternative is wasted energy. I'm asking for ideas here. And hopefully that will push the discussion in a productive way besides, "Meh, I just don't like how he plays" or "I never wanted him here in the first place."
The "best" and perhaps only realistic idea I've seen is essentially overpaying Tyus Jones to replace Russell, but I actually think Minnesota gets significantly worse in that scenario. Do the Wolves reach for Kennedy Chandler, Jean Montero, or some other unproven draft prospect with hopes that they'll be better than Russell two or three years from now? It's unlikely that a mid-late round prospect would play anywhere near the level Russell played at this past season right away. On a different note, what objectively better NBA point guard(s) are available right now or potentially next summer that Minnesota could either acquire or sign as a free agent? I've looked at expected free agent lists for this summer and next and the only clear upgrade that makes sense, in my opinion, would be Fred VanVleet. How realistic is it that Toronto allows him to walk? How likely is it that he would sign with Minnesota if he decided to sign with another team? If you're putting all of your marbles into the VanVleet idea, then fine, I get that.
I'll end with some repetitive questions. What is the plan? How does Minnesota get better? Simply suggesting that Russell needs to go in order for the Wolves to get better without providing some kind of better alternative is wasted energy. I'm asking for ideas here. And hopefully that will push the discussion in a productive way besides, "Meh, I just don't like how he plays" or "I never wanted him here in the first place."
Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
Q-was-here wrote:monsterpile wrote:Q-was-here wrote:Let me first say that I'm not anti-DLO. The trade for him was the right thing to do and he helped this franchise go from chronically bad to good.
My main issue at this point is fit. The continued emergence of Anthony Edwards this past season (and in the playoffs) has made it clear that he needs the ball in his hands more. It makes no sense that Ant, KAT, and DLO essentially have the same usage rate while on the floor together. Literally no other really good team with two scorers like Ant and KAT in their starting lineup have another guy that uses up a quarter of the possessions.
I wouldn't have a problem with this if DLO was an efficient scorer. But we've seen through 7 seasons that he's at best average in this area. Ant is already more efficient and he's only 20!
Now if DLO were coming off the bench, that would be a different story. Lots of good teams have 6th men that carry a very high usage rate. But he'd never accept a role like that. And besides, I've already made a reservation for Jaylen Nowell for that spot!
I don't know if we can pull off a trade this offseason or not. I'm willing to go another year with DLO on an expiring deal if we can't get any value in return. But I am NOT in favor of re-signing him. It's not about his talent level or money. It's about fit.
What usage would you be comfortable with Russell being at?
Probably no more than 20%, which just isn't going to happen. And besides that, he's not really playing to his strengths at that point. That's why it's a fit issue to me.
Kek put it best in another thread from a week or two ago. DLO is the kind of guy that helps take a team from bad to mediocre or even good. And unless he transforms his identity as a player, I'm not sure he can be on a title contending team.
20% seems reasonable especially considering he is a PG.
I think the fit could be a problem but assuming there isn't some deal out there to be made I would like to see Russell have a chance to prove you and others wrong. Why?
As I have mentioned a number of times Russell took fewer shots and had a lower usage this last season than he has in years. Something else to consider. His last season with the Nets he was their best player with a high usage and let that team to the playoffs. The next team he played on he was supposed to be playing with at least 1 HOF player and he ended up being the guy on a really bad team. He was traded to the Wolves played a handful of games and was injured the rest of the time. The next season he missed a chunk of games and I don't think many of them were with Towns but he was also playing games with another PG in Rubio. It's worth mentioning here again Towns and Russell hadn't played many games together before this season. Before this season Russell was a guy that made sense to be a scorer as much if not more than a playmaker. Could it be it might take more than a season for him to find a better balance there?
When has Russell in his career ever played with 2 guys as talented as Towns and Russell? There has been a significant chunk of his career he was either the best option or equal to other guys. This season Russell took a small step back increased his assists and lowered his TO which were a problem for him in his career and could still be an area he could improve. This season he took some small steps towards being more of the player this team needs. Finch said himself that he played Russell with the bench a lot last year. If that's true that would likely make his usage higher in those situations.
As for his efficiency it's also worth noting that he had a career high % from 2. He took the fewest percentage of shots from 10 feet inside the 3 point line of his career. His 3 point rate was actually the highest of his career and his FT rate was the highest of any full season. It's also worth noting that he almost never takes corner 3's. What if he actually played more off the ball (which he continues to say he is willing and wants to do) and gets more looks from that spot on the floor? Yeah I'm not expecting him to start taking loads of shots from those spots but it could be an area where he adds to his game. As Cam already pointed out his catch and shoot numbers were down this year. What if Russell is better there and continues to improve his shot selection. Personally I think the issue with Russell isn't his efficiency it's that he isn't consistent. He is streaky. To me this is reasonable if he is a starting level player not a star or really high level player. I'm not exactly sure why nobody thinks Russell is willing or capable to be more of a starting level player instead of some high usage guy.
To me the fit for Russell is whether or not the Wolves need or have another guy that can breakdown a defense. It can't just fall on Edwards and like Cam said Towns can't be relied on to be the other guy to make plays for others. I think many people underrate Russell's ability to make plays for others but I do think in the playoffs that's going to be more difficult for him to do consistently and it was an issue in theMemphis series. His usage was also lower in that series.
I'm not against moving Russell this offseason although I think most of us see it as unlikely that something worthwhile comes along in terms of dealing him mostly because of his salary. I think there is a possible path for him to still be a worthwhile player for the Wolves past this season. I think If anyone can help facilitate that it's Finch and I've been saying for probably a couple years that I think coaching is a big thing that can help Russell achieve the best version of himself with the Wolves. It seemed like he took small or maybe significant steps towards that this season. I don't think it's completely unreasonable to work fee if he can take another step forward in that regard.
Regardless of whether Russell is a long term piece or not the Wolves need to continue to look for more lead guard players that can play or at least defend PGs. Beverly won't be around forever Russell who knows and both guys have injury history. The Wolves already have guys with some level of potential that in one role or another could help in Nowell, Bolmaro and Wright. McLaughlin seems like he has ascended to bring a rotation level player. It would be nice to add another guy this offseason that seems more likely to help. There are various examples of guys in this year's playoffs that helped or helped teams and they weren't high draft picks or high profile FAs. Hopefully the Wolves continue to be successful in adding worthwhile players to their roster and Connelly has a track record of being able to do exactly that.
Re: It's time to move on from DLO....
Cam/Monster, I think the Wolves could go in a number of different directions. Who is the Celtics' point guard by the way? Marcus Smart might have the label, but he is hardly an orchestrator that passes guys open. Is Brunson a point guard? Again, he has the label, but plays more like a scoring guard than someone setting guys up. Who was the Laker PG when Kobe was winning titles? Derek Fisher? Was Mario Chalmers a great PG?
I think Tyus Jones, VanFleet, or Monte Morris could be solid starting PGs that would fit better next to KAT and an improving Edwards. Do I think each are gettable? May be, may be not, but I don't think any of them are impossible to obtain either.
What about making a run at Oladipo this offseason? He's an unrestricted free agent. You want our defense to take a big step forward? How about having Ant, Dipo, and McDaniels as our starting perimeter trio. Dipo and Ant can share ball handling responsibilities.
While I agree that jettisoning DLO as a perceived addition-by-subtraction move is a bad idea, I do think there are other viable alternatives that may be better a better fit in the long run. Then we can put more $ to use at other positions.
I think Tyus Jones, VanFleet, or Monte Morris could be solid starting PGs that would fit better next to KAT and an improving Edwards. Do I think each are gettable? May be, may be not, but I don't think any of them are impossible to obtain either.
What about making a run at Oladipo this offseason? He's an unrestricted free agent. You want our defense to take a big step forward? How about having Ant, Dipo, and McDaniels as our starting perimeter trio. Dipo and Ant can share ball handling responsibilities.
While I agree that jettisoning DLO as a perceived addition-by-subtraction move is a bad idea, I do think there are other viable alternatives that may be better a better fit in the long run. Then we can put more $ to use at other positions.