Can We Have a Thoughtful, Considerate Discussion about This?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I also think it's just bizarre that a 4th year wing suddenly can't shoot free throws reliably. 63% from the line. Really!? How does that happen?

He's just such an enigma....

[kekgeek]

"unlike a player like middleton who might theoretically be a better fit, he doesn't have the take over the game potential wiggins has shown in his career."

Boy, oh boy. This thread has been relatively fair except this line. I don't think it was intentional, but this sentence alone should show how unappreciated Khris Middleton is. What more does the guy have to do to get some respect? He literally does everything better than Wiggins (score, facilitate, rebound, defend, shoot, etc.).

My point on this is I don't think there is a gigantic gap in raw talent between Wiggins and Middleton. Middleton might be better but I don't think if we traded Wiggins for Middleton today straight up I don't think we are any closer to contending for a championship. I don't think Middleton has a next gear, and that is not a diss to Middleton I think he is a great player and I would love to have him on our team (really wish that Rubio for Middleton trade went through 2 years ago). I am just saying I think Wiggins could get to that level as the 3rd player on a championship team in todays age, even if the % is super small of him getting there, I don't think Middleton will ever be good enough to be the 3rd best player on a championship team. Just my opinion, I respect your take, I just think Wiggins has the to often said potential more than Middleton.

[kekgeek]

I also think it's just bizarre that a 4th year wing suddenly can't shoot free throws reliably. 63% from the line. Really!? How does that happen?

He's just such an enigma....

Hey he shot 70% last month, hahahah. hopefully he is turning it around. But ya super annoying.

[kekgeek]

There is many reason why we shouldn't trade Wiggins now or in the offseason.

1) First off his value is going to be at its all time low right now because of the poison pill so teams have to pay more to obtain him, than even in this offseason. How weird it is his value goes up during the offseason than it is now because of the poison pill.

2) Who are we going to trade him for. You mention trading him for expiring contract and a rookie. Here is the problem with that, pretend we trade wiggins for bradley (expiring), Decker (a player on a rookie deal/this is also just an example I bet we could get a lot better young player) and a 1st. First off Bradley or the expiring player can just leave and if he doesn't want to be here we don't have any cap space to add any other player. We are maxed out right now and we only have the MLE this offseason and Towns is up for the same extension wiggins just got (he is eligible now for more because he made the all star game). So we won't be gaining any cap space to acquire a max like talent or for that case even an above average role player like Taj. That cap space is just not there even if we trade wiggins for expirings.

3) I think everyone in todays NBA agrees that we need to have 3 stars to compete for a championship in todays game. So if we trade Wiggins for expiring contracts and/or good role players how do we obtain that 3rd or 4th star. We have a lot of big contracts in Teague (19 mil), Gorgui (15 mil), Taj (14 mil) that are going to be hard to unload without giving up significant assets because teams don't have the cap space they did 2 years ago. So how are we going to acquire a player who would have any chance to have the talent to become an all star.

4) Also there is no guarantee that we get better trading wiggins. Pretend we trade Wiggins for expirings and those players are solid but don't put us over the top. Jimmy could be just like we have no chance at getting any better, he could look at the situation and say well we have ME, Kat and a bunch of solid role players but no cap space and the role players don't have the potential to get us over the top. So Jimmy can leave in a year, and instead of a team with 2 young players in Wiggins and Kat. We just have Kat and who wants to come to minnesota in free agency if we just have Kat (I mean Taj, Kevin Martin and Teague are 3 of the top 5 wolves free agent signings of all time). So in my opinion the floor is so much bigger if we traded wiggins.

5) This is so much different than the blake situation. Blake will be 33 off of 6 lower body surgeries (as of now) and is going to take up 35% of there cap. The Clippers do not even have the upside, Deandre is a free agent, Lou williams is a free agent so 2 of their top 3 players are free agents. They could leave this offseason and they still wouldn't have solid cap space with the contracts of Gallo, Rivers, Millo on the books. Wiggins will be 27/28 in his last year of his contract, what should be his prime, totally different situation. Clippers have no upside players left and the Wolves have at least 2 young players in Kat and Wiggins who theoretically could take big jumps.

6) Wiggins plays every game (huge +), he is improving on the defensive end. He is shooting around his career averages from 3 but in a lot more attempts what is huge. (still needs to improve). He has the potential to take over a game when Jimmy is out. Like he did in 2 of the 3 games Jimmy missed last month. He cant do it every game but I think that is huge, unlike a player like middleton who might theoretically be a better fit, he doesn't have the take over the game potential wiggins has shown in his career.

7) Has wiggins played like a max player. I think the obvious answer is no. But he still is only 22 and I know we are all sick of the word potential but I will take my chances on him figuring it out over trading him for role players who might be a better fit but Jimmy and Kat are not enough even with the best role players in the world to win a championship. Also I will take my chances with Wiggins because we still have no cap space to fill the void that will be left by wiggins.

8) Of course though if an all star player becomes available you have to look at trading wiggins. If porzingas, davis, Kyrie like this year become available of course you look at it and you make the trade. Wiggins is not even close to untradable but I think were we are as a franchise it would be a bad move to trade wiggins for role players just to get role players. Those players will not get us over the top. I will take my chances that wiggins has the talent to possibly one day get us over the top, even if that % is super small. Because I think it is a 0% chance we could get over the top if we trade him for less talented players just to get out of the contract

Good post kek.

1. See my previous post. Do I understand that situation correctly?

2. That's a good point. We're not going to be able to offer a max contract this offseason to anyone either way. So let me clarify I'm not thinking about cap space for this offseason, but maybe for a year and a half from now when Taj, Cole, and Jamal's contracts come off in summer 2019, or at least when Teague comes off in the summer of 2020 (I'm assuming he'll pick up that option). With Wiggins' contract, that won't get us any cap space when those contracts come off. But without it, I'm thinking that could give us room to add a max player to Butler and Towns. Thoughts? It sounds weird, but the players I'd want to get back in return are kind of just to keep us competitive for the next year or two until they come off the books. It's the future cap space and flexibility that I think would be the real acquisition by trading Wiggins' contract.

One caveat--Gorgui's contract. Man, I forgot how many more years are on that. I love G, and that contract isn't his fault, but after Wiggins' contract, that's the next big obstacle. Ugh, we'd have to give up an asset to dump that contract.

3. See comments in my number 2. But you're right, those middle-size contracts are also a problem. Luckily they are relatively short, except for Gorgui's.

4. Here's where our opinions on Wiggins as a player matter. Personally, I don't think Wiggins moves the needle that much, so an average wing for a year or two replacing him would not limit us significantly in my view, although I respect the view of those who disagree. I don't want to go down the road of arguing about Wiggins' ceiling here. But let's assume we do replace Wiggins with a guy like Bazemore (whose contract comes off in the summer of 2020, same as Teague's). And assume we end up with the 4th or 5th seed the next couple of years because Baze is not going to significantly improve the team over what Wiggins would have provided even if he doesn't improve (I don't see us falling any lower than that with the strength of the rest of the roster). Would we really be so bad that Butler would leave his favorite coach and Towns to go play someplace else? Would Butler leave a team that was a solid playoff team with the cap space to add a max player? Personally, I don't think so. By the way, Kyrie is a free agent that summer (I would totally have given up Wiggins and a future first for him last summer). I'm not saying we should bank this all on getting Kyrie in 2020. That's just an example of who we could potentially add to Butler and Towns.

5. Good points on the problems of the Blake comparison. Just because it might have been smart to get out of Blake's contract doesn't mean it would be smart to get out of Wiggins'. I agree. But even setting aside the idea that Blake is a better player, the fact that Wiggins is younger and healthier doesn't necessarily mean we should do the opposite of the Clippers and hang on to Wiggins' contract. Here's where Towns and Butler's contracts are the strongest argument for me. Here's my thinking.

A) We can't possibly have more than 3 max contracts.
B) Butler and Towns deserve the max.
C) If we keep Wiggins, we will never have a better player than those three, and our team is right now about as good as it will ever be and will arguably get worse as we lose these vets and can't add much more around Towns, Butler, and Wiggins because those three max contracts will eat up whatever space we could have added when Taj, Teague, Jamal, Gorgui, etc. come off the books.
D) Since I don't think we're good enough now or that we will be even if you assume the same trajectory of improvement from Towns and Wiggins (and possibly some decline from Butler down the line), it's fair to conclude that we won't really ever be a legitimate contender with Butler, Towns, and Wiggins on max contracts and we must therefore dump one and look for a better player for our third max contract.
E) In my opinion, it's clear that Butler and Towns give us more bang for the buck than Wiggins, therefore, Wiggins' contract has to be the one to get moved.

6 and 7. These are fair points are about Wiggins' talent level and durability now and his potential. We've argued this to death, and I know it can't be totally separated from the contractual issues I'm thinking about. At the same time, I think even the more optimistic projections on Wiggins would not claim that he'll be a better player than Butler or Towns. If that's the case, the logic of A-E above still holds, in my view. Now, if people believe that Wiggins will actually improve so much that he'll become better than Butler and Towns and/or we could compete with the Warriors, then obviously keeping Wiggins is the logical conclusion. But even from the most pro-Wiggins arguments, I haven't really heard anybody make either of those two claims.

8. Good point. We could try to trade Wiggins at some point in the future for the guy who could be that third max player. If I understand this trading restriction correctly, it would obviously be tough to trade him now, and there is the potential to trade him in the future. And maybe a trade like that would be able to get us the right third max guy, although given the size of Wiggins' contract and his reputation throughout the league, I'm really skeptical about what level of talent we could get back. That's why it's not about the player we get back for him as much as the cap space and/or tradeable assets we could get for him.

I think kek, you hit the nail on the head here because you highlight that it's all about risk. Both paths carry risk. You keep him, and you risk that we won't be good enough to win or that we won't be able to trade him in the future for somebody who could make us good enough to win. You trade him soon, and you risk that you won't be able to turn the cap flexibility and possible assets you receive for him into a max player who would be good enough to win. Evaluating the percentage of those risks is exactly what this decision should turn on, in my view. And in my view, with Wiggins on the third max, I think the risk that we won't be good enough to compete with the Warriors is larger than the risk that if we cleared that salary over the next couple years and maybe got some assets, that we won't be able to use that to acquire a max good enough to compete at the highest level.

In other words, I think our chances of competing for a championship are better by taking the risk of clearing that contract and finding a better player for the third max than by keeping Wiggins on the third max.

Thoughts?

Thanks for the responds and like I said it is a risk on whatever side you pick. I am just saying that is going to be really hard to obtain max cap space even without wiggins. Like look at the year where almost everyone comes off the book. Butler gets the max that year (32 mil), Towns is up for the max (25 mil and it is going to be larger than that when he makes all pro this year where he can get more money because of it, happy for him but hurts the wolves in terms of cap), those 2 of course deserve the max, but we still have Teauge on the books (19mil) and Gorgui (15 mil) so just those 4 players are 91 million, the cap was 98 million this year and there is not expected to be a big jump. That is also not including the contracts of Patton, the rookie we draft this year, Tyus will be a free agent that year and Belly is a free agent this year so he could be on the books also. I just think it is almost impossible to add another max type player via free agency any time during the Butler/Kat era.

I also think wiggins has the best chance to obtain a max level talent via trade if we feel like we need to go that route. I believe in my heart that Kyrie would of been a wolf if Teague could have been traded this offseason. Because who would you rather have, Wiggins, Teague and a late 1st or a hurt Isaiah Thomas, washed up Crowder and a pick in the middle of the lottery.

We can disagree, and I don't think we will ever convince each other to switch opinions on the subject. Like we said it is a risk either way, I just don't see getting rid of wiggins for none potential max talent is a mistake because we are never going to have max cap space in the Kat/Butler era, and with or without Wiggins we are about to hit cap hell in 2 years, and that is a main reason why I don't want to trade the 1st this year because we need cheap young talent and who knows maybe we add a player like Kuzma, OG, Draymond, do what the Jazz did this year traded there 1st and an underachieving young player in lyles and got Mitchell out of it.

[rapsuperstar31]

I also think it's just bizarre that a 4th year wing suddenly can't shoot free throws reliably. 63% from the line. Really!? How does that happen?

He's just such an enigma....

It happens, Lebron shot 75, 75, 74, 69 his first 4 years, jumped it back up to normal and his last two years were 67, jumped back up to 74 this year.
JR Smith has shot anywhere from 82% to 63% on any given year.
plenty of 3pt shooters have big dips every few years as well, quite often the ones that come to Minnesota.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Let's take a look at the top 8 teams in each conference and see how they look both setup to win now and in the future.

Boston: Kyrie 25, Hayward 27, Horford 31, Tatum 19
Toronto: Derozon 27, Lowry 31, Ibaka 28
Cleveland: Lebron 33, Love 29, IT 28
Washington: Wall 27, Beal 24, Porter 24

Golden State: Steph 29, KD 29, Klay 27 Draymond 27
Houston: Harden 28, CP3 32, Gordon 29
SA: Leonard 26, LA 32
MN: Butler 28, Wiggins 22, Towns 22

2 of our best 3 players are 5-7 years younger than everyone else's best players in our conference outside of Leonard and SA is gonna be at a crossroads soon with Pop retiring. The East is setup well long term with the Celtics and the Wizards, but we'd only face off against them in the finals. We're so young relative to the teams better than us in our conference. The Warriors run started when their guys were 24-25 and we're still 2 whole years away from that. I just think we're in the perfect situation to win a lot now while being just outside contender status and maybe Towns and Wiggins carry us to that status in the next year or two. Maybe not. But then everyone else is gonna age out as the years go by (including Jimmy) and our guys are gonna be hitting their prime with tons of winning and playoff experience while everyone else's new young stars will just be getting their toes wet in both.

Meanwhile if we dump Wiggins to open cap space in 2 years we are guaranteed to not be a contender now because that ceiling rests in both Wiggins and Towns and not one or the other and we put all our eggs in a basket that someone is gonna want to join a would be gutted roster (need max cap space to sign a max player) just to play with Towns and Jimmy and need another year or two after they sign to get the pieces around them to be able to contend with the proper depth. That seems like a way bigger risk to me than play it out and eventually get a 3rd piece around Wiggins and Towns that can win a title when the top guys age out in 4-5-6 years. Meanwhile Wiggins is right up there in terms of trade value with top draft picks for teams who need to trade a star but don't want to blow it up. What if Dame wants out of Portland? Or if the Leonard rumors are true in SA? The Clippers just got back players they wanted and a mediocre first for Blake. Bazemore, Tyus and a mediocre first doesn't get those kind of deals done. Wiggins is our only realistic chance at trading for a 3rd star as well. So in my mind 2 of our 3 best options involve keeping Wiggins while the 3rd option is the most risky by far banking on guys being available in free agency and wanting to come here in 2-3 years.

[Coolbreeze44]

I also think it's just bizarre that a 4th year wing suddenly can't shoot free throws reliably. 63% from the line. Really!? How does that happen?

He's just such an enigma....

I can't explain this either. He doesn't seem like a guy prone to the yips, in fact he never seems to get too nervous about anything. He had an airball the other night on a free throw, how does that happen? And some nights when his shot is off, it's really off. The bank shots he was making the other night along with some "scuds" as Dave Benz called them, make you wonder what the hek is going on.

[Coolbreeze44]

Let's take a look at the top 8 teams in each conference and see how they look both setup to win now and in the future.

Boston: Kyrie 25, Hayward 27, Horford 31, Tatum 19
Toronto: Derozon 27, Lowry 31, Ibaka 28
Cleveland: Lebron 33, Love 29, IT 28
Washington: Wall 27, Beal 24, Porter 24

Golden State: Steph 29, KD 29, Klay 27 Draymond 27
Houston: Harden 28, CP3 32, Gordon 29
SA: Leonard 26, LA 32
MN: Butler 28, Wiggins 22, Towns 22

2 of our best 3 players are 5-7 years younger than everyone else's best players in our conference outside of Leonard and SA is gonna be at a crossroads soon with Pop retiring. The East is setup well long term with the Celtics and the Wizards, but we'd only face off against them in the finals. We're so young relative to the teams better than us in our conference. The Warriors run started when their guys were 24-25 and we're still 2 whole years away from that. I just think we're in the perfect situation to win a lot now while being just outside contender status and maybe Towns and Wiggins carry us to that status in the next year or two. Maybe not. But then everyone else is gonna age out as the years go by (including Jimmy) and our guys are gonna be hitting their prime with tons of winning and playoff experience while everyone else's new young stars will just be getting their toes wet in both.

Meanwhile if we dump Wiggins to open cap space in 2 years we are guaranteed to not be a contender now because that ceiling rests in both Wiggins and Towns and not one or the other and we put all our eggs in a basket that someone is gonna want to join a would be gutted roster (need max cap space to sign a max player) just to play with Towns and Jimmy and need another year or two after they sign to get the pieces around them to be able to contend with the proper depth. That seems like a way bigger risk to me than play it out and eventually get a 3rd piece around Wiggins and Towns that can win a title when the top guys age out in 4-5-6 years. Meanwhile Wiggins is right up there in terms of trade value with top draft picks for teams who ,need to trade a star but don't want to blow it up. What if Dame wants out of Portland? Or if the Leonard rumors are true in SA? The Clippers just got back players they wanted and a mediocre first for Blake. Bazemore, Tyus and a mediocre first doesn't get those kind of deals done. Wiggins is our only realistic chance at trading for a 3rd star as well. So in my mind 2 of our 3 best options involve keeping Wiggins while the 3rd option is the most risky by far banking on guys being available in free agency and wanting to come here in 2-3 years.

What I like about this post is it depicts why we shouldn't be impatient right now. I know it's been 13 long years and I get the desire for instant gratification. But we're in a great spot right now. Teague's contract is short and we have #1 picks for flexibility. The Gorgui deal limits us but most teams have a contract like that. I know I'm a glass half full guy when it comes to Andrew but I'm seeing huge strides in his defensive game and he's done things rebounding the ball that I've never seen from him. It's really unfortunate his hands are so bad because it affects a lot of what he does poorly. But I guess my point is things aren't so bad right now. If you really have to move him, parlay him with Butler and go get a Leonard.

[Duke13]

Let's take a look at the top 8 teams in each conference and see how they look both setup to win now and in the future.

Boston: Kyrie 25, Hayward 27, Horford 31, Tatum 19
Toronto: Derozon 27, Lowry 31, Ibaka 28
Cleveland: Lebron 33, Love 29, IT 28
Washington: Wall 27, Beal 24, Porter 24

Golden State: Steph 29, KD 29, Klay 27 Draymond 27
Houston: Harden 28, CP3 32, Gordon 29
SA: Leonard 26, LA 32
MN: Butler 28, Wiggins 22, Towns 22

2 of our best 3 players are 5-7 years younger than everyone else's best players in our conference outside of Leonard and SA is gonna be at a crossroads soon with Pop retiring. The East is setup well long term with the Celtics and the Wizards, but we'd only face off against them in the finals. We're so young relative to the teams better than us in our conference. The Warriors run started when their guys were 24-25 and we're still 2 whole years away from that. I just think we're in the perfect situation to win a lot now while being just outside contender status and maybe Towns and Wiggins carry us to that status in the next year or two. Maybe not. But then everyone else is gonna age out as the years go by (including Jimmy) and our guys are gonna be hitting their prime with tons of winning and playoff experience while everyone else's new young stars will just be getting their toes wet in both.

Meanwhile if we dump Wiggins to open cap space in 2 years we are guaranteed to not be a contender now because that ceiling rests in both Wiggins and Towns and not one or the other and we put all our eggs in a basket that someone is gonna want to join a would be gutted roster (need max cap space to sign a max player) just to play with Towns and Jimmy and need another year or two after they sign to get the pieces around them to be able to contend with the proper depth. That seems like a way bigger risk to me than play it out and eventually get a 3rd piece around Wiggins and Towns that can win a title when the top guys age out in 4-5-6 years. Meanwhile Wiggins is right up there in terms of trade value with top draft picks for teams who ,need to trade a star but don't want to blow it up. What if Dame wants out of Portland? Or if the Leonard rumors are true in SA? The Clippers just got back players they wanted and a mediocre first for Blake. Bazemore, Tyus and a mediocre first doesn't get those kind of deals done. Wiggins is our only realistic chance at trading for a 3rd star as well. So in my mind 2 of our 3 best options involve keeping Wiggins while the 3rd option is the most risky by far banking on guys being available in free agency and wanting to come here in 2-3 years.

What I like about this post is it depicts why we shouldn't be impatient right now. I know it's been 13 long years and I get the desire for instant gratification. But we're in a great spot right now. Teague's contract is short and we have #1 picks for flexibility. The Gorgui deal limits us but most teams have a contract like that. I know I'm a glass half full guy when it comes to Andrew but I'm seeing huge strides in his defensive game and he's done things rebounding the ball that I've never seen from him. It's really unfortunate his hands are so bad because it affects a lot of what he does poorly. But I guess my point is things aren't so bad right now. If you really have to move him, parlay him with Butler and go get a Leonard.

I agree, good post Kahn

[kekgeek]

Let's take a look at the top 8 teams in each conference and see how they look both setup to win now and in the future.

Boston: Kyrie 25, Hayward 27, Horford 31, Tatum 19
Toronto: Derozon 27, Lowry 31, Ibaka 28
Cleveland: Lebron 33, Love 29, IT 28
Washington: Wall 27, Beal 24, Porter 24

Golden State: Steph 29, KD 29, Klay 27 Draymond 27
Houston: Harden 28, CP3 32, Gordon 29
SA: Leonard 26, LA 32
MN: Butler 28, Wiggins 22, Towns 22

2 of our best 3 players are 5-7 years younger than everyone else's best players in our conference outside of Leonard and SA is gonna be at a crossroads soon with Pop retiring. The East is setup well long term with the Celtics and the Wizards, but we'd only face off against them in the finals. We're so young relative to the teams better than us in our conference. The Warriors run started when their guys were 24-25 and we're still 2 whole years away from that. I just think we're in the perfect situation to win a lot now while being just outside contender status and maybe Towns and Wiggins carry us to that status in the next year or two. Maybe not. But then everyone else is gonna age out as the years go by (including Jimmy) and our guys are gonna be hitting their prime with tons of winning and playoff experience while everyone else's new young stars will just be getting their toes wet in both.

Meanwhile if we dump Wiggins to open cap space in 2 years we are guaranteed to not be a contender now because that ceiling rests in both Wiggins and Towns and not one or the other and we put all our eggs in a basket that someone is gonna want to join a would be gutted roster (need max cap space to sign a max player) just to play with Towns and Jimmy and need another year or two after they sign to get the pieces around them to be able to contend with the proper depth. That seems like a way bigger risk to me than play it out and eventually get a 3rd piece around Wiggins and Towns that can win a title when the top guys age out in 4-5-6 years. Meanwhile Wiggins is right up there in terms of trade value with top draft picks for teams who ,need to trade a star but don't want to blow it up. What if Dame wants out of Portland? Or if the Leonard rumors are true in SA? The Clippers just got back players they wanted and a mediocre first for Blake. Bazemore, Tyus and a mediocre first doesn't get those kind of deals done. Wiggins is our only realistic chance at trading for a 3rd star as well. So in my mind 2 of our 3 best options involve keeping Wiggins while the 3rd option is the most risky by far banking on guys being available in free agency and wanting to come here in 2-3 years.

What I like about this post is it depicts why we shouldn't be impatient right now. I know it's been 13 long years and I get the desire for instant gratification. But we're in a great spot right now. Teague's contract is short and we have #1 picks for flexibility. The Gorgui deal limits us but most teams have a contract like that. I know I'm a glass half full guy when it comes to Andrew but I'm seeing huge strides in his defensive game and he's done things rebounding the ball that I've never seen from him. It's really unfortunate his hands are so bad because it affects a lot of what he does poorly. But I guess my point is things aren't so bad right now. If you really have to move him, parlay him with Butler and go get a Leonard.

I agree, good post Kahn

Agreed also. A lot of my thoughts on the subject in a well thought out post.