The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[Phenom]

I think pretty much Kat needs to be traded this summer because of the new CBA. That is not to say Kat isn’t a good player but he probably gives the wolves the best chance at getting potentially good pieces back in a trade. It is easier to trade Kat before his big extension kicks in, other teams won’t need to match that 14 extra million the wolves next year. It also allows the wolves for a full reset in 26-27 season financially when Rudy becomes a FA. While with Kat they can’t financially reset until the 28-29 season due to his contract.


I will say this new CBA in my opinion kills Kats trade value. First off there are going to be like 5-8 teams projected over the 2nd tier lux tax making they need to send out more than 50 million to acquire Kat what is really hard, so the CBA eliminated trade possibilities. Also teams can no longer trade for Kat to be their 3rd option. CBA killed the 3 max players thing. Why would any team trade for Kat in the new CBA. He would have to be that teams 2nd star and Kat has not proven at all he can be the 2nd best player on a really good team, he might be capable of that but why would any team risk the cap hell Kat could put them in when they don’t know if he can be a top 2 player on a title team or even a 2nd round team. It was so much easier in the old CBA to trade for Kat and gamble on him being the 3rd piece. You can’t do that anymore in the new CBA. In my opinion Kat value got destroyed in new CBA and that is not a diss about Kat talent it’s about roster management and I don’t see a team locking themselves into Kat when you can’t add a 3rd star at any point into the equation.


This new CBA actually sucks for 95% of players. It killed the middle tier of players. Each team will have 2 max players, 1 20-25 million guy and the rest under 10 million. That 10-20 million player will make so much less due to the punishments of the lux tax. They killed the middle class.

The other thing what fucking suck is developing your own talent is a detriment to that team. The wolves are so fucked financially of Ant makes all nba, they can’t afford another super max. Ant being great next season really hurts the wolves long term in roster construction around Ant what is fucking stupid.

To go along with my paragraph above the Celtics are going to have to decide between super maxing Brown and lose 2/3 of White, Smart, Brogdon. Or keep those 3 and loose Brown. Brown making all nba screws the great team building the Celtics have done.

Warriors will have to offload Poole or Wiggins this offseason and get no salary in return back. Lakers will lose either Reeves or Rui to bring in Kyrie because of the CBA.

In the new CBA acquisition like Brogdon, Gallo (was hurt), Donte D., K love, Caleb Martin, Westbrook would not be legal under the new CBA.

Teams who are building smart like the Thunder are now in some trouble. Shai will more than likely be super max eligible, if he does, the Thunder will be unable to keep 2 of Chet, Giddy, J. Williams if they develop into near max players. What is so stupid. It’s punishing teams for developing their own talent.

In the end this CBA will be good for league parity and those super max caliber players. It is super shitty for roster construction, developing good young talent, 95% of players salaries and team continuity.

Sorry for the rant but because of these shit punishments to the CBA Kat should be gone not because of his talents but because he was just good enough to make all nba but not good to be a MVP guy so the wolves will get punished for Kat loyalty of being the only 2nd #1 overall pick since Tim Duncan to play 9 consecutive years with the team that drafted him.

Kek - Great analysis, kek. I share your disdain for the impact the new CBA will have on teams that build and develop their own players.

There will no doubt be instances of teams losing a good player due to the numbers but also take DLo for example. The Warriors gave him a max so they could hold Kevin Durants salary slot. That had no impact on their homegrown talent. This new system will heavily penalize maneuvers like that and put more emphasis on building with your own guys.

The players will be the ones feeling a pinch. Players like DLo will still seek out max money but find it a lot harder to get it. I think for most players their home team will be able to make competitive offers as the market balances out to compensate for the 2 aprons.

[Q-is-here]

I finally listened to the latest Dane Moore podcast where they went through all of this. And yeah, the hard reality is that KAT or Gobert need to be traded prior to the '24-25 season.

That means there is nothing preventing this team from running it all back, including Naz and NAW on new deals, for one more season. But it becomes a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

Scenario #1 - Run it back. Make the Western Conference Finals! The two-big lineup works, yay! Oh, now we have to trade one of them...doh!

Scenario #2 - Run it back. Miss the playoffs or lose in the first round or play in. Well, that really sucks when we could have moved off of KAT or Gobert before the season began and be no worse for the wear.

Scenario #3 - Just rip the band-aid off now and get the best deal possible for either KAT or Gobert....or may be even both! Get it done this offseason. Use the new CBA as air cover for why the franchise needed to reverse course, as it's pretty embarrassing for the front office to have to do this after putting all our chips in last season.

And there you have it!

[Lipoli390]

I finally listened to the latest Dane Moore podcast where they went through all of this. And yeah, the hard reality is that KAT or Gobert need to be traded prior to the '24-25 season.

That means there is nothing preventing this team from running it all back, including Naz and NAW on new deals, for one more season. But it becomes a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

Scenario #1 - Run it back. Make the Western Conference Finals! The two-big lineup works, yay! Oh, now we have to trade one of them...doh!

Scenario #2 - Run it back. Miss the playoffs or lose in the first round or play in. Well, that really sucks when we could have moved off of KAT or Gobert before the season began and be no worse for the wear.

Scenario #3 - Just rip the band-aid off now and get the best deal possible for either KAT or Gobert....or may be even both! Get it done this offseason. Use the new CBA as air cover for why the franchise needed to reverse course, as it's pretty embarrassing for the front office to have to do this after putting all our chips in last season.

And there you have it!

Q - You didn’t need to wait to see the Dane Moore podcast last night to see the light (or darkness). You simply needed to read my post from three weeks ago that started this thread. . Seriously, you’ve framed the three scenarios perfectly. Your framing further solidified my view that this organization needs to rip the band-aid off this summer and move on. If we keep both, I think Scenario #2 is the most likely outcome or maybe we advance one round. That would be the worst result, but as you noted it would also be terrible to advance to the finals and then have to trade one or both of the two bigs that got us there. I’ll add another factor that I’ve mentioned before. Given the probability that this team will take a step or half-step back if it trades one of our two bigs (especially KAT), it’s best to do that in a year when we’ll have a 1st-round pick.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think pretty much Kat needs to be traded this summer because of the new CBA. That is not to say Kat isn’t a good player but he probably gives the wolves the best chance at getting potentially good pieces back in a trade. It is easier to trade Kat before his big extension kicks in, other teams won’t need to match that 14 extra million the wolves next year. It also allows the wolves for a full reset in 26-27 season financially when Rudy becomes a FA. While with Kat they can’t financially reset until the 28-29 season due to his contract.


I will say this new CBA in my opinion kills Kats trade value. First off there are going to be like 5-8 teams projected over the 2nd tier lux tax making they need to send out more than 50 million to acquire Kat what is really hard, so the CBA eliminated trade possibilities. Also teams can no longer trade for Kat to be their 3rd option. CBA killed the 3 max players thing. Why would any team trade for Kat in the new CBA. He would have to be that teams 2nd star and Kat has not proven at all he can be the 2nd best player on a really good team, he might be capable of that but why would any team risk the cap hell Kat could put them in when they don’t know if he can be a top 2 player on a title team or even a 2nd round team. It was so much easier in the old CBA to trade for Kat and gamble on him being the 3rd piece. You can’t do that anymore in the new CBA. In my opinion Kat value got destroyed in new CBA and that is not a diss about Kat talent it’s about roster management and I don’t see a team locking themselves into Kat when you can’t add a 3rd star at any point into the equation.


This new CBA actually sucks for 95% of players. It killed the middle tier of players. Each team will have 2 max players, 1 20-25 million guy and the rest under 10 million. That 10-20 million player will make so much less due to the punishments of the lux tax. They killed the middle class.

The other thing what fucking suck is developing your own talent is a detriment to that team. The wolves are so fucked financially of Ant makes all nba, they can’t afford another super max. Ant being great next season really hurts the wolves long term in roster construction around Ant what is fucking stupid.

To go along with my paragraph above the Celtics are going to have to decide between super maxing Brown and lose 2/3 of White, Smart, Brogdon. Or keep those 3 and loose Brown. Brown making all nba screws the great team building the Celtics have done.

Warriors will have to offload Poole or Wiggins this offseason and get no salary in return back. Lakers will lose either Reeves or Rui to bring in Kyrie because of the CBA.

In the new CBA acquisition like Brogdon, Gallo (was hurt), Donte D., K love, Caleb Martin, Westbrook would not be legal under the new CBA.

Teams who are building smart like the Thunder are now in some trouble. Shai will more than likely be super max eligible, if he does, the Thunder will be unable to keep 2 of Chet, Giddy, J. Williams if they develop into near max players. What is so stupid. It’s punishing teams for developing their own talent.

In the end this CBA will be good for league parity and those super max caliber players. It is super shitty for roster construction, developing good young talent, 95% of players salaries and team continuity.

Sorry for the rant but because of these shit punishments to the CBA Kat should be gone not because of his talents but because he was just good enough to make all nba but not good to be a MVP guy so the wolves will get punished for Kat loyalty of being the only 2nd #1 overall pick since Tim Duncan to play 9 consecutive years with the team that drafted him.

Kek - Great analysis, kek. I share your disdain for the impact the new CBA will have on teams that build and develop their own players.

Yep. The NBA repeatedly "punishes" teams who improve organically by developing their own players.

But in 2023... trade news and even trade demands... get more clicks and social media mentions than discussions about the NBA Finals. It's a sign of the world we live in more than anything else.

Younger demographics grew up in the player entitlement era and are often fans of players, not teams. Apparently, it brings in more money that way, at least for now.




[Note: I just looked up who is currently on the Players Union board. CJ McCollum is President. And 7 different players are listed as Vice President. Harrison Barnes is the Secretary and Treasurer... but I have a sneaky suspicion that he's not actually taking notes or doing anything with the books. LOL.]

[FNG]

Yes, excellent framing of the dilemma by Q. I'm not opposed to Scenario 3 as long as it brings back a PF who can hit a 3 and rebound, while also improving our perimeter defense (Hello Brandon Miller). Absent that, I'm in option 1, but with a much sunnier outlook than Q's. I'm comparing the excitement the Wolves created in 3 of the 5 games against Denver (compared with the relative ease in which they are dispatching their other opponents), and I don't see the ceiling for this team being only making the West finals. Add Jaden and Naz back into the mix combined with expected improvement from Ant and Jaden and more comfort with Rudy (now that we have a true PG), and there's no reason this roster can't compete for a championship if healthy. Denver will still be great, but they are also a mature team without the upside we have with two developing young starters...they're going to be about the same next year. So yeah, if we can get Simons and Miller out of a deal with Portland, I might be on board. But my preference is for Lore to agree to bite the bullet on the onerous lux tax in two years (along with the restrictions on adding players) and going for championships.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sorry FNG... we've fallen for the false optimism w this team a lot, so it's hard to get too excited about winning 20% of the games vs. the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets largely coasted through that series and won easily.

Losing in 5 games is still bad anyway you slice it. The series wasn't really close (the Wolves even lost a game where Jokic had his worst shooting game of the season).

And we've seen this before. Heck, going 10 - 10 at the end of one miserable season was enough to wet the panties of most Wolves fans back in the day. In the end, those moral victory moments we talk ourselves into are almost always meaningless indicators of future success.

I think the Nuggets merely pulled a Milton Berle https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... on%20Berle in the first round. Each round of the playoffs gets decidedly tougher and more stressful. Rotations and leashes get shorter. The pressure mounts. The stars become more important.

[FNG]

Sorry FNG... we've fallen for the false optimism bit before, so it's hard to get too excited about winning 20% of the games vs. the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets largely coasted through that series and won easily.

Losing in 5 games is still bad anyway you slice it. The series wasn't really close (the Wolves even lost a game where Jokic had his worst shooting game of the season).

And we've seen this before. Heck, going 10 - 10 at the end of one miserable season was enough to wet the panties of most Wolves fans back in the day. In the end, those moral victory moments we talk ourselves into are almost always meaningless indicators of future success.

I think the Nuggets merely pulled a Milton Berle https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... on%20Berle in the first round. Each round of the playoffs gets decidedly tougher and more stressful. Rotations and leashes get shorter. The pressure mounts. The stars become more important.

I don't know, Abe...I guess I've been way more skeptical about this franchise throughout the years than the typical rube. I'll admit I thought we had a chance to challenge for a championship in the near future when we paired Garnett and Marbury...we know how that turned out, but I still think they could have been something special. I then got excited when we got Butler because I've always liked his game, but I didn't think our core was good enough to do much. So this is really only the second time in 3 decades that I really thought we had a chance to do something special. Yeah, many here got excited about our big 46 win season last year, but I pooh poohed it...you aren't a very good team when only about 5 of your 46 wins came against above .500 teams not missing one or more key players. And I never thought a team with a perennial loser like Russell at PG could be successful. So it's a little different when I say we can challenge for a championship, because while I say it every year with the Twins, I almost never say it with the Wolves.

If the Wolves are no good and have no future, than we have to say the same thing about Phoenix, the Lakers, and the Heat...plus all the teams that they beat (like the Celtics)...because Denver is handling everyone with ease. We're the only team in that group that was missing a key starter plus our highest scoring reserve, so context matters also. Everyone raves about the "Miami culture", but they looked much worse to me last night than the Wolves did in their series. You can say Denver "coasted" during the series, but playing their 2 stars an average of 40 minutes a night (after the first game blowout) doesn't sound like coasting to me.

This roster is the best I have ever seen from this hapless franchise. We have a center and a PG with winning pedigrees, averaging close to 50 wins a year together (unusual for the Wolves to have two winners like that in their starting lineup). We have a unicorn PF who is arguably the best shooting 7 footer in the game. We have a budding superstar at SG who is only 21, and seems to play best when the bright lights are on. Our 5th starter needs to stop punching cement, but he has an emerging offensive game, and is widely mentioned as the biggest snub on the all-defense team. Supplement that with a seasoned bench, and I see the makings of a championship team. And that was substantiated by our 6-3 finish against mostly playoff teams when we finally got a chance to see this roster intact...small sample size, but it's all we got. And we finally have an ownership group with some balls, instead of Casper Milktoast Taylor...these guys will not tolerate losing. If you see my optimism as misguided, that's fine...differing opinions are what makes this board fun. But to this long-time cynical Wolves fan who mocked the 2021-2 optimism here, this feels totally different to me.

[Q-is-here]

I finally listened to the latest Dane Moore podcast where they went through all of this. And yeah, the hard reality is that KAT or Gobert need to be traded prior to the '24-25 season.

That means there is nothing preventing this team from running it all back, including Naz and NAW on new deals, for one more season. But it becomes a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

Scenario #1 - Run it back. Make the Western Conference Finals! The two-big lineup works, yay! Oh, now we have to trade one of them...doh!

Scenario #2 - Run it back. Miss the playoffs or lose in the first round or play in. Well, that really sucks when we could have moved off of KAT or Gobert before the season began and be no worse for the wear.

Scenario #3 - Just rip the band-aid off now and get the best deal possible for either KAT or Gobert....or may be even both! Get it done this offseason. Use the new CBA as air cover for why the franchise needed to reverse course, as it's pretty embarrassing for the front office to have to do this after putting all our chips in last season.

And there you have it!

Q - You didn’t need to wait to see the Dane Moore podcast last night to see the light (or darkness). You simply needed to read my post from three weeks ago that started this thread. . Seriously, you’ve framed the three scenarios perfectly. Your framing further solidified my view that this organization needs to rip the band-aid off this summer and move on. If we keep both, I think Scenario #2 is the most likely outcome or maybe we advance one round. That would be the worst result, but as you noted it would also be terrible to advance to the finals and then have to trade one or both of the two bigs that got us there. I’ll add another factor that I’ve mentioned before. Given the probability that this team will take a step or half-step back if it trades one of our two bigs (especially KAT), it’s best to do that in a year when we’ll have a 1st-round pick.

Understood Lip, you were onto this a while ago. It just took me a while to digest the info. Reading it on a message board and then hearing it from guys that actually look at this stuff as part of their paid jobs sort of brings it home to me.

[Q-is-here]

Yes, excellent framing of the dilemma by Q. I'm not opposed to Scenario 3 as long as it brings back a PF who can hit a 3 and rebound, while also improving our perimeter defense (Hello Brandon Miller). Absent that, I'm in option 1, but with a much sunnier outlook than Q's. I'm comparing the excitement the Wolves created in 3 of the 5 games against Denver (compared with the relative ease in which they are dispatching their other opponents), and I don't see the ceiling for this team being only making the West finals. Add Jaden and Naz back into the mix combined with expected improvement from Ant and Jaden and more comfort with Rudy (now that we have a true PG), and there's no reason this roster can't compete for a championship if healthy. Denver will still be great, but they are also a mature team without the upside we have with two developing young starters...they're going to be about the same next year. So yeah, if we can get Simons and Miller out of a deal with Portland, I might be on board. But my preference is for Lore to agree to bite the bullet on the onerous lux tax in two years (along with the restrictions on adding players) and going for championships.

FNG, What was also made clear on the Dane Moore podcast is that Lore simply doesn't have deep enough pockets to go into the second apron. He does not have Steve Balmer level wealth. Dane and his guests were pretty adamant that this likely wasn't going to happen no matter what.

So assuming you accept that reality, how do you feel about this team making the Western Conference Finals next year (let's assume they don't go further than that) and then having to turnaround and trade one of their max players - KAT, Ant, or Gobert?

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sorry FNG... we've fallen for the false optimism bit before, so it's hard to get too excited about winning 20% of the games vs. the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets largely coasted through that series and won easily.

Losing in 5 games is still bad anyway you slice it. The series wasn't really close (the Wolves even lost a game where Jokic had his worst shooting game of the season).

And we've seen this before. Heck, going 10 - 10 at the end of one miserable season was enough to wet the panties of most Wolves fans back in the day. In the end, those moral victory moments we talk ourselves into are almost always meaningless indicators of future success.

I think the Nuggets merely pulled a Milton Berle https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... on%20Berle in the first round. Each round of the playoffs gets decidedly tougher and more stressful. Rotations and leashes get shorter. The pressure mounts. The stars become more important.

I don't know, Abe...I guess I've been way more skeptical about this franchise throughout the years than the typical rube. I'll admit I thought we had a chance to challenge for a championship in the near future when we paired Garnett and Marbury...we know how that turned out, but I still think they could have been something special. I then got excited when we got Butler because I've always liked his game, but I didn't think our core was good enough to do much. So this is really only the second time in 3 decades that I really thought we had a chance to do something special. Yeah, many here got excited about our big 46 win season last year, but I pooh poohed it...you aren't a very good team when only about 5 of your 46 wins came against above .500 teams not missing one or more key players. And I never thought a team with a perennial loser like Russell at PG could be successful. So it's a little different when I say we can challenge for a championship, because while I say it every year with the Twins, I almost never say it with the Wolves.

If the Wolves are no good and have no future, than we have to say the same thing about Phoenix, the Lakers, and the Heat...plus all the teams that they beat (like the Celtics)...because Denver is handling everyone with ease. We're the only team in that group that was missing a key starter plus our highest scoring reserve, so context matters also. Everyone raves about the "Miami culture", but they looked much worse to me last night than the Wolves did in their series. You can say Denver "coasted" during the series, but playing their 2 stars an average of 40 minutes a night (after the first game blowout) doesn't sound like coasting to me.

This roster is the best I have ever seen from this hapless franchise. We have a center and a PG with winning pedigrees, averaging close to 50 wins a year together (unusual for the Wolves to have two winners like that in their starting lineup). We have a unicorn PF who is arguably the best shooting 7 footer in the game. We have a budding superstar at SG who is only 21, and seems to play best when the bright lights are on. Our 5th starter needs to stop punching cement, but he has an emerging offensive game, and is widely mentioned as the biggest snub on the all-defense team. Supplement that with a seasoned bench, and I see the makings of a championship team. And that was substantiated by our 6-3 finish against mostly playoff teams when we finally got a chance to see this roster intact...small sample size, but it's all we got. And we finally have an ownership group with some balls, instead of Casper Milktoast Taylor...these guys will not tolerate losing. If you see my optimism as misguided, that's fine...differing opinions are what makes this board fun. But to this long-time cynical Wolves fan who mocked the 2021-2 optimism here, this feels totally different to me.

6 - 3 vs. mostly (lower seeded) playoff teams. Yes... that's a paltry sample size and one that would be deemed irrelevant by perennially successful teams like the Celtics, Heat, Bucks, Lakers, 76ers and Suns.

Some of those teams (and fanbases) are barely impressed by going 55 - 27 some seasons. Heck, Milwaukee went 58 - 24 and fired its coach. Philly went 54 - 28 and made the 2nd round and fired its coach. Phoenix won 64 games last year... and flamed out in the playoffs each of the last two seasons... but still went further each time than the Wolves have in 33 of 34 seasons. Fired the coach.

But at least Finch can point to his 6 - 3 record down the stretch of a .500 season with pride.

__________________________

Furthermore, the Timberwolves won 20% of the time vs. Denver. That's equivalent to a 16 - 66 season. That would be last in the league in 2023.

For the series, Denver outscored Minnesota by an average of 9.2 PPG. That would be 29th in the league in 2023.

Minnesota led for 30 seconds in the 4th quarter combined for the first three games. Minnesota was down by at least 9 points in each of those 4th quarters. The series was 3 - 0 at that point... and NBA history tells us that's a wrap.

What happened after that is merely window dressing for optimistic fans.