In Defense of Thaddeus Young

[MikkeMan]

So you would prefer to use the NBA defensive rtg which only shows how the team performed with Young on the court, and does nothing to show how Young himself actually performed. Sounds like a really accurate portrayal. We certainly wouldn't want to look at defensive rebounds, considering they are only the deciding factor of getting an extra offensive possession for the opponent. Of course that extra possession doesn't show up in the NBA rtg because that is strictly based on 100 possessions.

Defensive rebounding actually affects NBA team defensive rating. Possession ends always for basket, turnover or defensive rebound. So if team has worse defensive rebounding rate with certain player on the court, it increases the opponent offensive efficiency.

If you check on/off stats from basketball reference, you see that Minnesota defensive rebounding rate is little lower with Young on the court than with Bennett but still overall defensive efficiency is better with Young because opponent eFG% is lower and turnover rate is higher with Young on the court.

I agree that it makes sense to try to neutralize the effect that other players have for team defense. One possibility is to calculate for example what is team defensive rating with certain player playing with Bennett versus him playing with Young.

I did this for Dieng and Williams (since both Young and Bennett had played decent amount of minutes with both players) based on stats in 82games.com. It seems that Dieng has defensive rating 112.9 when he plays with Young and 122.3 when he plays with Bennett. Similar analysis about Mo Williams show that he has defensive rating 121.6 while playing with Bennett and 111.1 while playing with Young. Ultimately this should be done for all players that have played with both Bennett and Young but already this brief analysis is telling similar story than what team defensive rating with Young and Bennett tells, Minnesota just seems to play better defense with Young than with Bennett.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Mikkeman, I have looked at similar On/Off numbers and player pairings with Young vs. Bennett and it's true: While Young has been a massive disappointment, he is still a better player on both ends of the court than Bennett. Basically, Young has been the "less bad" player, and by quite a decent margin.

I think people see Bennett make the occasional hard hedge or aggressive rebound and view that as evidence that he is a superior option to Young. But the problem with Bennett is consistency of effort, lack of experience, and an utter case of not knowing what he wants to be when he grows up. Young has enough NBA institutional knowledge and experience that his instincts alone make him the better player.

That being said, Bennett will continue to get minutes out of necessity. Let's hope he turns a corner.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Check out those defensive ratings that Mikkeman added above.

Holy shitballs. Every one of those numbers, with Young, With Bennett... is so far below the league average. Q nailed it when he wrote Young is the "less bad" player. I think that's what a few of the Young "apologists" have hinted at over the past few weeks. Bennett is sort of like the de facto 3rd string QB right now.

"Anything has to be better than the starter, right?"

Then again, some people talked themselves into Spergeon Wynn once upon a time.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Spergeon Wynn is no Cleo Lemon.

[mjs34]

So you would prefer to use the NBA defensive rtg which only shows how the team performed with Young on the court, and does nothing to show how Young himself actually performed. Sounds like a really accurate portrayal. We certainly wouldn't want to look at defensive rebounds, considering they are only the deciding factor of getting an extra offensive possession for the opponent. Of course that extra possession doesn't show up in the NBA rtg because that is strictly based on 100 possessions.

Defensive rebounding actually affects NBA team defensive rating. Possession ends always for basket, turnover or defensive rebound. So if team has worse defensive rebounding rate with certain player on the court, it increases the opponent offensive efficiency.

If you check on/off stats from basketball reference, you see that Minnesota defensive rebounding rate is little lower with Young on the court than with Bennett but still overall defensive efficiency is better with Young because opponent eFG% is lower and turnover rate is higher with Young on the court.

I agree that it makes sense to try to neutralize the effect that other players have for team defense. One possibility is to calculate for example what is team defensive rating with certain player playing with Bennett versus him playing with Young.

I did this for Dieng and Williams (since both Young and Bennett had played decent amount of minutes with both players) based on stats in 82games.com. It seems that Dieng has defensive rating 112.9 when he plays with Young and 122.3 when he plays with Bennett. Similar analysis about Mo Williams show that he has defensive rating 121.6 while playing with Bennett and 111.1 while playing with Young. Ultimately this should be done for all players that have played with both Bennett and Young but already this brief analysis is telling similar story than what team defensive rating with Young and Bennett tells, Minnesota just seems to play better defense with Young than with Bennett.

I guess I am not understanding your logic. If a team shoots and misses it doesn't matter who got the rebound for that possession. The possession doesn't continue on if the team got an offensive rebound. They reset the clock and start their next possession. So if Trey Burke takes a shot and Favors gets the rebound over Young and puts it back in on a layup the eFG% is 50, not 100.

[mjs34]

Q, you know I am not a huge fan of these comprehensive stats. I like using TS%, but almost everything else needs to be evaluated against the eye test. Young had a significant advantage in that he left for his mother's funeral after the Mexico game and so he wasn't on the court for 40+ blow out loss. That probably accounts for 1-2 pts alone in these ratings. It also left us shorthanded regardless of how poor his play has been.

It is also hard to gauge anything for a player that is getting inconsistent minutes with a plethora of different lineups. When I judge Bennett against Young, I am not arguing for Bennett because I think he is necessarily the better player, but I don't think he is any worse. I look at two things mainly, with the first being the puppy training process. Both guys are part of a horrible defensive team, so is it easier to train a puppy, or retrain an old dog? Young is a vet, and was supposed to do things the right way, and that is clearly not the case. He reaches on D giving up position, doesn't box out, and is slow on rotations. I don't think you will fix that at this point in his career.

The second thing I look at is skill set, and can that player be successful in his position. Bennett has all the tools to be an effective PF, while Young will always be over matched physically. Like Gorgi, Young is easily backed down and moved out, whereas Bennett has the lower body strength to hold position. Defensively it is hard to evaluate Bennett until he has an established role in a well run defensive scheme. Offensively, I wish Flip would tell Bennett to stop taking long 2's altogether, and focus on getting to the basket, posting up, or shooting the 3 when it presents itself.

Bennett's biggest weakness is obviously his lack of focus. Some guys mature and come out it, and some guys like Beasley never turn that corner. Not sure which we have with Bennett, but I am willing to wait a year or two to find out.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

So you would prefer to use the NBA defensive rtg which only shows how the team performed with Young on the court, and does nothing to show how Young himself actually performed. Sounds like a really accurate portrayal. We certainly wouldn't want to look at defensive rebounds, considering they are only the deciding factor of getting an extra offensive possession for the opponent. Of course that extra possession doesn't show up in the NBA rtg because that is strictly based on 100 possessions.

Defensive rebounding actually affects NBA team defensive rating. Possession ends always for basket, turnover or defensive rebound. So if team has worse defensive rebounding rate with certain player on the court, it increases the opponent offensive efficiency.

If you check on/off stats from basketball reference, you see that Minnesota defensive rebounding rate is little lower with Young on the court than with Bennett but still overall defensive efficiency is better with Young because opponent eFG% is lower and turnover rate is higher with Young on the court.

I agree that it makes sense to try to neutralize the effect that other players have for team defense. One possibility is to calculate for example what is team defensive rating with certain player playing with Bennett versus him playing with Young.

I did this for Dieng and Williams (since both Young and Bennett had played decent amount of minutes with both players) based on stats in 82games.com. It seems that Dieng has defensive rating 112.9 when he plays with Young and 122.3 when he plays with Bennett. Similar analysis about Mo Williams show that he has defensive rating 121.6 while playing with Bennett and 111.1 while playing with Young. Ultimately this should be done for all players that have played with both Bennett and Young but already this brief analysis is telling similar story than what team defensive rating with Young and Bennett tells, Minnesota just seems to play better defense with Young than with Bennett.

I guess I am not understanding your logic. If a team shoots and misses it doesn't matter who got the rebound for that possession. The possession doesn't continue on if the team got an offensive rebound. They reset the clock and start their next possession. So if Trey Burke takes a shot and Favors gets the rebound over Young and puts it back in on a layup the eFG% is 50, not 100.

SJM, Yes, your point is correct, but what Mikkeman is saying is that despite a slight advantage on the D-boards when Bennett is in the game, our overall defense is still better with Young on the court because we force more missed shots and create more turnovers. In other words, the added missed shots + added turnovers created is greater than the downside of giving up a couple extra possessions our opponents get through the offensive glass.

Again, we're talking about degrees of horribleness here. No one is "good" defensively on this team except Rubio and Wiggins. And Wiggins is having to devote more and more of his energy to being a scorer, so he's not that great either. Plus he's still young and learning.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Q, you know I am not a huge fan of these comprehensive stats. I like using TS%, but almost everything else needs to be evaluated against the eye test. Young had a significant advantage in that he left for his mother's funeral after the Mexico game and so he wasn't on the court for 40+ blow out loss. That probably accounts for 1-2 pts alone in these ratings. It also left us shorthanded regardless of how poor his play has been.

It is also hard to gauge anything for a player that is getting inconsistent minutes with a plethora of different lineups. When I judge Bennett against Young, I am not arguing for Bennett because I think he is necessarily the better player, but I don't think he is any worse. I look at two things mainly, with the first being the puppy training process. Both guys are part of a horrible defensive team, so is it easier to train a puppy, or retrain an old dog? Young is a vet, and was supposed to do things the right way, and that is clearly not the case. He reaches on D giving up position, doesn't box out, and is slow on rotations. I don't think you will fix that at this point in his career.

The second thing I look at is skill set, and can that player be successful in his position. Bennett has all the tools to be an effective PF, while Young will always be over matched physically. Like Gorgi, Young is easily backed down and moved out, whereas Bennett has the lower body strength to hold position. Defensively it is hard to evaluate Bennett until he has an established role in a well run defensive scheme. Offensively, I wish Flip would tell Bennett to stop taking long 2's altogether, and focus on getting to the basket, posting up, or shooting the 3 when it presents itself.

Bennett's biggest weakness is obviously his lack of focus. Some guys mature and come out it, and some guys like Beasley never turn that corner. Not sure which we have with Bennett, but I am willing to wait a year or two to find out.

Don't necessarily disagree with any of this. My answer is that BOTH of these guys should be moved down a level in the rotation. My solution was to somehow keep Adrien and start him at PF, with Young coming off the bench as our 6th man. Then limit Bennett to spot-minutes until he proves in practice and scrimmages that he can eat into more of Young's/Adrien's minutes.

But alas, Adrien is gone, so both are going to get plenty of playing time the rest of the way and all we can hope for is improvement. I guess your guy Hummel is the "stick" Flip will use when Bennett is not playing the right way.

[mjs34]

So you would prefer to use the NBA defensive rtg which only shows how the team performed with Young on the court, and does nothing to show how Young himself actually performed. Sounds like a really accurate portrayal. We certainly wouldn't want to look at defensive rebounds, considering they are only the deciding factor of getting an extra offensive possession for the opponent. Of course that extra possession doesn't show up in the NBA rtg because that is strictly based on 100 possessions.

Defensive rebounding actually affects NBA team defensive rating. Possession ends always for basket, turnover or defensive rebound. So if team has worse defensive rebounding rate with certain player on the court, it increases the opponent offensive efficiency.

If you check on/off stats from basketball reference, you see that Minnesota defensive rebounding rate is little lower with Young on the court than with Bennett but still overall defensive efficiency is better with Young because opponent eFG% is lower and turnover rate is higher with Young on the court.

I agree that it makes sense to try to neutralize the effect that other players have for team defense. One possibility is to calculate for example what is team defensive rating with certain player playing with Bennett versus him playing with Young.

I did this for Dieng and Williams (since both Young and Bennett had played decent amount of minutes with both players) based on stats in 82games.com. It seems that Dieng has defensive rating 112.9 when he plays with Young and 122.3 when he plays with Bennett. Similar analysis about Mo Williams show that he has defensive rating 121.6 while playing with Bennett and 111.1 while playing with Young. Ultimately this should be done for all players that have played with both Bennett and Young but already this brief analysis is telling similar story than what team defensive rating with Young and Bennett tells, Minnesota just seems to play better defense with Young than with Bennett.

I guess I am not understanding your logic. If a team shoots and misses it doesn't matter who got the rebound for that possession. The possession doesn't continue on if the team got an offensive rebound. They reset the clock and start their next possession. So if Trey Burke takes a shot and Favors gets the rebound over Young and puts it back in on a layup the eFG% is 50, not 100.

SJM, Yes, your point is correct, but what Mikkeman is saying is that despite a slight advantage on the D-boards when Bennett is in the game, our overall defense is still better with Young on the court because we force more missed shots and create more turnovers. In other words, the added missed shots + added turnovers created is greater than the downside of giving up a couple extra possessions our opponents get through the offensive glass.

Again, we're talking about degrees of horribleness here. No one is "good" defensively on this team except Rubio and Wiggins. And Wiggins is having to devote more and more of his energy to being a scorer, so he's not that great either. Plus he's still young and learning.

BB reference has Bennett listed at 22.6 to 12.7 for Dreb%. Mikkeman took two specific lineups, but if one guy is getting less minutes with that group, wouldn't it show up in team defense? The added missed shots don't really help if we aren't getting the rebounds, and those steal attempts seem to end up in layups more often than not. It is to the point that Gorgi is doubling on thad's man almost immediately.

[mjs34]

But alas, Adrien is gone, so both are going to get plenty of playing time the rest of the way and all we can hope for is improvement. I guess your guy Hummel is the "stick" Flip will use when Bennett is not playing the right way.

Real funny! :)