Thibs is biggest Fraud since Madoff

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Well done Mikkeman!

Yes, I have been a big advocate that the disastrous run of "close losses" in 2013-14 was largely a matter of random variability (i.e. luck) versus some systemic problem with our team.

For example, Gerald Green beat us with a last second 3-pointer that was as well contested as could be and it went in. There was no defensive breakdown. He just made a really tough shot. In that same part of the season, Kevin Love had an opportunity to tie a close game with a three point shot that he was obviously fouled on. I mean, his defender literally raked his arm right in front of the official, "Doh! Ed Malloy!!!" and nothing was called. That's bad luck. Then as you mention, we did eventually start winning more than our fair share of close games.

This year has been different in that we aren't getting beat by incredibly lucky (or unlucky) shots and no-calls. There are demonstrable break downs in both offense and defense by our starting 5 that have led to these defeats. That's not to say some random variance doesn't apply (e.g. the Gallinari bank shot in Wiggins' face late in the Denver loss was pretty damn lucky in my opinion), but I think we can point to clear evidence of mental lapses and bad decisions more often than we could in 2013-14.

The only other thing I can point to from 13-14 is Adelman's tendency to ride the bench a little too long (which is the opposite gripe we hear about Thibs by some folks here). We truly did have a miserable bench that year and they gave up some pretty big leads. This season the opposite is occurring. Our bench generally holds serve and then our starters come in and blow it.

[Monster]

I think its worth noting that defensive efficiency and defensive rating is generally higher this season compared to last season at around the same time.

Comparing defensive ratings on NBA.com this year compared to last year are clearly higher.

http://stats.nba.com/teams/defense/#

The Bucks had the worst ranking at this time last year and there are 10 teams worse in that category this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/defensive-efficiency?date=2016-01-11

Its all a bit relative, but just simply saying this team's defense is worse than last year isn't exactly a complete story either. All I am saying is that scoring is up this year for whatever reason (18 teams are scoring 105 points or more this year last year there were 3 at the allstar break) and that's something to consider. It's worthwhile to remember the Wolves defense was worse overall with the young players than it was when they had a decent chunk of games early on playing the vets. If the young players start figuring it out some we could see a decent uptick in team defense and ratings as the season progresses. There have been some signs of that statistically the last chunk of games. The Wolves sit at 24th in both of these categories and have been moving up. We will see what happens.

[MikkeMan]

Well done Mikkeman!
This year has been different in that we aren't getting beat by incredibly lucky (or unlucky) shots and no-calls. There are demonstrable break downs in both offense and defense by our starting 5 that have led to these defeats. That's not to say some random variance doesn't apply (e.g. the Gallinari bank shot in Wiggins' face late in the Denver loss was pretty damn lucky in my opinion), but I think we can point to clear evidence of mental lapses and bad decisions more often than we could in 2013-14.

I would argue that Melo hitting game winner over Wiggins was bad luck as well, Houston hitting three consecutive three pointers in last minute to overcame Wolves 9 point lead was bad luck as well. Also Favors hitting three pointer when there was one and half minutes time left was definitely bad luck as well since he has hit just three treys in his whole career. Even Covington's game winner was at least partially lucky play. Wolves have also missed a lot of free throws in the end of close games. So I would argue that also this team has been unlucky and I hope it doesn't last whole season.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Well done Mikkeman!
This year has been different in that we aren't getting beat by incredibly lucky (or unlucky) shots and no-calls. There are demonstrable break downs in both offense and defense by our starting 5 that have led to these defeats. That's not to say some random variance doesn't apply (e.g. the Gallinari bank shot in Wiggins' face late in the Denver loss was pretty damn lucky in my opinion), but I think we can point to clear evidence of mental lapses and bad decisions more often than we could in 2013-14.

I would argue that Melo hitting game winner over Wiggins was bad luck as well, Houston hitting three consecutive three pointers in last minute to overcame Wolves 9 point lead was bad luck as well. Also Favors hitting three pointer when there was one and half minutes time left was definitely bad luck as well since he has hit just three treys in his whole career. Even Covington's game winner was at least partially lucky play. Wolves have also missed a lot of free throws in the end of close games. So I would argue that also this team has been unlucky and I hope it doesn't last whole season.

Well, there is always some element of random variability involved. The question is to what degree is it. The 'Melo shot wasn't really a bad shot for him and certainly is different than the Gerald Green heave. Houston hitting three consecutive 3's also isn't a shocker since that is their M.O. We absolutely made massive defensive judgment errors that led to two of those three wide open 3's. The Covington game winner was an open layup because of, again, a blown defensive coverage.

We'll never be able to prove this, but my opinion is that 13-14 was different.

[MikkeMan]

Well done Mikkeman!
This year has been different in that we aren't getting beat by incredibly lucky (or unlucky) shots and no-calls. There are demonstrable break downs in both offense and defense by our starting 5 that have led to these defeats. That's not to say some random variance doesn't apply (e.g. the Gallinari bank shot in Wiggins' face late in the Denver loss was pretty damn lucky in my opinion), but I think we can point to clear evidence of mental lapses and bad decisions more often than we could in 2013-14.

I would argue that Melo hitting game winner over Wiggins was bad luck as well, Houston hitting three consecutive three pointers in last minute to overcame Wolves 9 point lead was bad luck as well. Also Favors hitting three pointer when there was one and half minutes time left was definitely bad luck as well since he has hit just three treys in his whole career. Even Covington's game winner was at least partially lucky play. Wolves have also missed a lot of free throws in the end of close games. So I would argue that also this team has been unlucky and I hope it doesn't last whole season.

Well, there is always some element of random variability involved. The question is to what degree is it. The 'Melo shot wasn't really a bad shot for him and certainly is different than the Gerald Green heave. Houston hitting three consecutive 3's also isn't a shocker since that is their M.O. We absolutely made massive defensive judgment errors that led to two of those three wide open 3's. The Covington game winner was an open layup because of, again, a blown defensive coverage.

We'll never be able to prove this, but my opinion is that 13-14 was different.

I realize that both Anderson and Ariza shoot pretty well wide open three pointers. Based on NBA.com they have shot them 44% this season. Still it would mean that chances that they make three straights treys would be less than 9%. So I would take my chances with Wolves if they are leading with 9 points when there is one minute left. Melo and Gallo shoot pull up jumpers with little over 40% clip. Probably with lower percentage when they are heavily contested. So if they would take those exactly same shots again, I would believe it would be more probable that they would miss than make them.