Re: Can We Have a Thoughtful, Considerate Discussion about This?
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:32 pm
I've enjoyed reading the discussion.
Monster has already pointed out that, as threshold matter, the CBA effectively prevents us from trading Wiggins this season. So the earliest we could trade him would be this upcoming summer. So the only realistic question is whether we should trade Wiggins next summer or sometime thereafter and, if so, for who.
Regarding whether we should consider trading Wiggins next summer or thereafter, Kahns' last post captures my thinking for the most part. Of course, whether we should trade Wiggins or anyone else ultimately depends on who/what we could get in return. With that obvious caveat, the following 5 factors argue against trading Wiggins next summer absent the proverbial "offer we can't refuse:"
1. Wiggins Age. I know it's his 4th season and I'm as frustrated as anyone by the fact that Wiggins hasn't yet come close to living up to his billing. However, at age 22 with 1 season of college under his belt, I think it's still too early to assume that he's hit his ceiling and will never be an all-star caliber player. Having already established himself as a near elite scorer, he has shown significant and sustained improvement on the defensive end so far this season. That improvement, when considered in conjunction with his proven scoring ability, obvious upside and still young age, argues for sticking with him.
2. Championship Aspirations. Wiggins' age as a factor goes beyond what it suggests about his potential to improve. Wiggins and KAT, at age 22, give us the sort of longer-term trajectory needed to eventually have a realistic chance at competing for a championship. It's clear we're not going to get by the Warriors or even the Rockets this season or even next. But as Kahns illustrated, 3 years from now at the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors 2 best players (Curry and Durant) will be 32 years old while their 3rd and 4th best will be 30. I suspect Curry's ankle issues will have caught up to him by then. Houston's Chris Paul will be 35. We don't know where LeBron will be then, by if he's still playing in the NBA he'll be 35. In contrast, Wiggins and KAT will be 25 and just entering their prime years. Assuming Jimmy Butler stays, he'll be 31 and probably still playing at a very high level. KAT has already shown he's a perennial allstar and potential future hall of famer. He has also demonstrated the competitive drive and intelligence that suggest more substantial improvement in the next few years. If Wiggins just improves modestly as the 3rd option among our core three, this team will be well-positioned as a legitimate championship contender.
3. Wiggins Role. KAT's obvious talent and the acquisition of Butler eliminate the need to rely on Wiggins as the best or 2nd best player on the team. As a 3rd wheel he's an almost perfect fit because he doesn't have a huge ego or alpha personality, which means he meshes well with our two alphas - Jimmy and KAT. The key for Wiggins is the continued development of his defense and rebounding. If he can become a consistently top-notch defender and grab 5-6 boards a game, while still being the natural scoring threat he's always been, then he is almost the perfect 3rd part of a championship-caliber core three.
4. Wiggins' Durability. As we look around the League and see one major injury after another to key players, the value of Wiggins' astounding durability becomes even more apparent. It goes without saying that regardless of how great the player is, that player has no value if not on the court.
5. Keeping Butler. I think keeping Wiggins through next season will help us ensure that we re-sign Jimmy. As we've seen, Wiggins is good enough in the near term to help this team compete for a top 4-6 seed (maybe even 3rd seed) in the West. That probably won't win us a championship or even get us into the Finals this season or next, but it will probably be enough to persuade Jimmy Butler to re-sign at the end of next season to continue as our #1 or #2 guy along with KAT and Wiggins. Yes, we could trade Wiggins and end up no worse, but Wiggins is the bird in hand.
I'll confess that I would have traded Wiggins for Kyrie. I continue to believe that, if we had kept Ricky, we could have packaged Wiggins, Rubio and a future 2nd rounder for Kyrie. Alas we'll never know. If we could get a comparable deal for someone like Kyrie -- a true star age 25 or under, then I'd be all in. But unless that sort of deal presents itself, I'm convinced we should stick with Wiggins at least through next season. If his defensive improvement continues, then he'll always be tradeable down the road given his incredible talent and durability. In my view, now is not the time.
Monster has already pointed out that, as threshold matter, the CBA effectively prevents us from trading Wiggins this season. So the earliest we could trade him would be this upcoming summer. So the only realistic question is whether we should trade Wiggins next summer or sometime thereafter and, if so, for who.
Regarding whether we should consider trading Wiggins next summer or thereafter, Kahns' last post captures my thinking for the most part. Of course, whether we should trade Wiggins or anyone else ultimately depends on who/what we could get in return. With that obvious caveat, the following 5 factors argue against trading Wiggins next summer absent the proverbial "offer we can't refuse:"
1. Wiggins Age. I know it's his 4th season and I'm as frustrated as anyone by the fact that Wiggins hasn't yet come close to living up to his billing. However, at age 22 with 1 season of college under his belt, I think it's still too early to assume that he's hit his ceiling and will never be an all-star caliber player. Having already established himself as a near elite scorer, he has shown significant and sustained improvement on the defensive end so far this season. That improvement, when considered in conjunction with his proven scoring ability, obvious upside and still young age, argues for sticking with him.
2. Championship Aspirations. Wiggins' age as a factor goes beyond what it suggests about his potential to improve. Wiggins and KAT, at age 22, give us the sort of longer-term trajectory needed to eventually have a realistic chance at competing for a championship. It's clear we're not going to get by the Warriors or even the Rockets this season or even next. But as Kahns illustrated, 3 years from now at the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors 2 best players (Curry and Durant) will be 32 years old while their 3rd and 4th best will be 30. I suspect Curry's ankle issues will have caught up to him by then. Houston's Chris Paul will be 35. We don't know where LeBron will be then, by if he's still playing in the NBA he'll be 35. In contrast, Wiggins and KAT will be 25 and just entering their prime years. Assuming Jimmy Butler stays, he'll be 31 and probably still playing at a very high level. KAT has already shown he's a perennial allstar and potential future hall of famer. He has also demonstrated the competitive drive and intelligence that suggest more substantial improvement in the next few years. If Wiggins just improves modestly as the 3rd option among our core three, this team will be well-positioned as a legitimate championship contender.
3. Wiggins Role. KAT's obvious talent and the acquisition of Butler eliminate the need to rely on Wiggins as the best or 2nd best player on the team. As a 3rd wheel he's an almost perfect fit because he doesn't have a huge ego or alpha personality, which means he meshes well with our two alphas - Jimmy and KAT. The key for Wiggins is the continued development of his defense and rebounding. If he can become a consistently top-notch defender and grab 5-6 boards a game, while still being the natural scoring threat he's always been, then he is almost the perfect 3rd part of a championship-caliber core three.
4. Wiggins' Durability. As we look around the League and see one major injury after another to key players, the value of Wiggins' astounding durability becomes even more apparent. It goes without saying that regardless of how great the player is, that player has no value if not on the court.
5. Keeping Butler. I think keeping Wiggins through next season will help us ensure that we re-sign Jimmy. As we've seen, Wiggins is good enough in the near term to help this team compete for a top 4-6 seed (maybe even 3rd seed) in the West. That probably won't win us a championship or even get us into the Finals this season or next, but it will probably be enough to persuade Jimmy Butler to re-sign at the end of next season to continue as our #1 or #2 guy along with KAT and Wiggins. Yes, we could trade Wiggins and end up no worse, but Wiggins is the bird in hand.
I'll confess that I would have traded Wiggins for Kyrie. I continue to believe that, if we had kept Ricky, we could have packaged Wiggins, Rubio and a future 2nd rounder for Kyrie. Alas we'll never know. If we could get a comparable deal for someone like Kyrie -- a true star age 25 or under, then I'd be all in. But unless that sort of deal presents itself, I'm convinced we should stick with Wiggins at least through next season. If his defensive improvement continues, then he'll always be tradeable down the road given his incredible talent and durability. In my view, now is not the time.