Tank-O-Meter...2015 edition

[AbeVigodaLive]

Yup, good examples Mikkeman. However, the exceptions far outweigh the norm. Here are some other 19-year old rookie numbers:

Luol Deng - 7.0 per 36 as a rookie, 6.3 for his career
Thad Young - 7.2, 6.5
Carmelo - 6.0, 6.5
Bradley Beal - 4.4, 4.1
Marvin Williams - 7.1, 6.3
Trevor Ariza - 6.3, 6.1
Martell Webster - 4.4, 4.7
Tracy McGrady - (you already cited those numbers)

In fact, like McGrady, a number of these guys did some of their best work on the boards as rookies and then tailed off over time.

For Wiggins, it's not just an issue of weight. His hands are a bit shaky, as I've seen the ball squirt out of his mitts on numerous occasions. I'm not sure that's fixable.

I think people need to hang their hat on Wiggins' potential as a wing scorer and defensive stopper. But I don't quite see the do-it-all wing of yesteryear. Luckily, he plays next to a point guard that is a do-it-all type player in terms of rebounding, assists, steals, and defense. The one area that Rubio is weak in - scoring - happens to be the area of greatest potential for Wiggins.

Does it have anything to do with some of those players expanding other parts of their games? For example, McGrady became a much better creator with the ball as his career progressed. He went from more of a forward to more of a ball-dominant guard, didn't he?

Each of the guys in the list above began taking many more shots from the perimeter too. Their games expanded. (Granted, most rebounds are on the defensive end, but I think you see where I'm going)

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Excellent examples of improvement, Mikkeman. My initial thoughts were that Drexler was a poor comparison for Wigs, because Clyde rebounded and assisted so much better, and Wigs seems to have more potential as a 3-point shooter. But I was discounting improvement, and you have provided some great examples of stars who improved. Maybe a better outside-shooting Drexler is an appropriate ceiling for Wiggins.

But let me raise the ante a little, or maybe a lot. Using the definition of ceiling that it is the best a player could hope to achieve, not a prediction, isn't Durant a better ceiling and comp for Wiggins? Both of them were athletic wings who were closely watched from an early age, and both went #1 in the draft. Look at their rookie seasons. I'm going to look at the progression Wigs has shown and take some liberties with where I think he will end up based on trends.

Durant averaged 20.3 PPG, and Wigs is not going to get there. But if he keeps up the pace he has been on, 17 PPG for Wigs is not out of the question. In any event, Durant was the better rookie scorer.

Durant is much taller, but the rebounds are similar. Durant averaged 4.4 per game his rookie season. Wigs has increased his RPG every month (4.8 in February) and since he is now up to 4.3 on the year, it's likely that he will slightly surpass Durant's rookie RPG.

Durant averaged 2.4 APG his rookie year. Wigs is only at 1.9 for the season, but the past 2 months he has averaged 2.4, so he should be around 2.1 for the year...comparable to Durant, who now typically averages double that rate.

Wigs already is shooting at a better percentage than rookie Durant (.436 to .430), and has been closer to 47% the past two months, so it's safe to say Wigs will out shoot Durant their rookie years. And Wigs also has the advantage in 3-point shooting, although more dramatically here. Durant only hit 29% of his threes his first year, and even though Wigs' 3-point shooting has gotten worse as the year has progressed, he should still be somewhere in the 34% range at the end of the year.

Another reason Durant might be a good comp for Wiggins is their post-college draft profiles. Durant was the much better scorer in college, but Wiggins has shown that he is going to be a great scorer in the NBA too. It's interesting that their weaknesses in their draft profile are almost identical...both needed to bulk up, there were concerns about passivity with both, and both needed to improve their ballhandling, Durant hadn't established himself as a great defender yet in college as Wigs had, but his length and athleticism made scouts think he could be elite here too.

Durant will always have the advantage over Wigs in height and length, but Wiggins will have the athleticism. Unless someone can tell me where I am way off here, Durant is my new ceiling and comp for Wigs.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Durant's one of the best shooters in the league. Wiggins won't ever sniff that label.

[mjs34]

Durant's one of the best shooters in the league. Wiggins won't ever sniff that label.

Based on what? Your crystal ball again!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yup, good examples Mikkeman. However, the exceptions far outweigh the norm. Here are some other 19-year old rookie numbers:

Luol Deng - 7.0 per 36 as a rookie, 6.3 for his career
Thad Young - 7.2, 6.5
Carmelo - 6.0, 6.5
Bradley Beal - 4.4, 4.1
Marvin Williams - 7.1, 6.3
Trevor Ariza - 6.3, 6.1
Martell Webster - 4.4, 4.7
Tracy McGrady - (you already cited those numbers)

In fact, like McGrady, a number of these guys did some of their best work on the boards as rookies and then tailed off over time.

For Wiggins, it's not just an issue of weight. His hands are a bit shaky, as I've seen the ball squirt out of his mitts on numerous occasions. I'm not sure that's fixable.

I think people need to hang their hat on Wiggins' potential as a wing scorer and defensive stopper. But I don't quite see the do-it-all wing of yesteryear. Luckily, he plays next to a point guard that is a do-it-all type player in terms of rebounding, assists, steals, and defense. The one area that Rubio is weak in - scoring - happens to be the area of greatest potential for Wiggins.

Does it have anything to do with some of those players expanding other parts of their games? For example, McGrady became a much better creator with the ball as his career progressed. He went from more of a forward to more of a ball-dominant guard, didn't he?

Each of the guys in the list above began taking many more shots from the perimeter too. Their games expanded. (Granted, most rebounds are on the defensive end, but I think you see where I'm going)

Yes, I think the falloff for some of the guys has more to do with their expanding role and minutes than any dropoff in their rebounding skills. But that same lesson will probably apply to Wiggins, who is only going to be relied upon more and more as a scorer, especially as Pek and Martin start to deteriorate (via injuries and age).

I think the bottom-line is that rebounding has been statistically proven to be one of the most transferable skills from college to the NBA. And it usually emerges right away. I think it's due to the sheer primitive nature of rebounding versus the nuances involved in other aspects of the game. That's not to say no one ever improves in this area; it's just less likely to happen than in other facets of the game.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Don't under sell how many boards Wiggins could be bringing down if he could fix his rocks for hands in that regard. He gets his hands on a lot of rebounds but only pulls down 4.4. I think that number can reasonably be expected to go up as he gets stronger and starts coming down with boards more cleanly. He just hasn't been great at controlling contested boards yet. It gets knocked out of his hands pretty easily. Part of that will also come from learning to get two hands on the ball to bring it down. He only has one hand on the ball too often and that's when he loses the board most often.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Yup, good examples Mikkeman. However, the exceptions far outweigh the norm. Here are some other 19-year old rookie numbers:

Luol Deng - 7.0 per 36 as a rookie, 6.3 for his career
Thad Young - 7.2, 6.5
Carmelo - 6.0, 6.5
Bradley Beal - 4.4, 4.1
Marvin Williams - 7.1, 6.3
Trevor Ariza - 6.3, 6.1
Martell Webster - 4.4, 4.7
Tracy McGrady - (you already cited those numbers)

In fact, like McGrady, a number of these guys did some of their best work on the boards as rookies and then tailed off over time.

For Wiggins, it's not just an issue of weight. His hands are a bit shaky, as I've seen the ball squirt out of his mitts on numerous occasions. I'm not sure that's fixable.

I think people need to hang their hat on Wiggins' potential as a wing scorer and defensive stopper. But I don't quite see the do-it-all wing of yesteryear. Luckily, he plays next to a point guard that is a do-it-all type player in terms of rebounding, assists, steals, and defense. The one area that Rubio is weak in - scoring - happens to be the area of greatest potential for Wiggins.

Does it have anything to do with some of those players expanding other parts of their games? For example, McGrady became a much better creator with the ball as his career progressed. He went from more of a forward to more of a ball-dominant guard, didn't he?

Each of the guys in the list above began taking many more shots from the perimeter too. Their games expanded. (Granted, most rebounds are on the defensive end, but I think you see where I'm going)

Yes, I think the falloff for some of the guys has more to do with their expanding role and minutes than any dropoff in their rebounding skills. But that same lesson will probably apply to Wiggins, who is only going to be relied upon more and more as a scorer, especially as Pek and Martin start to deteriorate (via injuries and age).

I think the bottom-line is that rebounding has been statistically proven to be one of the most transferable skills from college to the NBA. And it usually emerges right away. I think it's due to the sheer primitive nature of rebounding versus the nuances involved in other aspects of the game. That's not to say no one ever improves in this area; it's just less likely to happen than in other facets of the game.

I think the part in bold is enough to temper discussions of DPOY I've seen today.

It's extremely uncommon for a guy in today's NBA to be expected to be all-world, HOF-level, on both ends of the court. That being said... I just thought of a thread...

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

LST, I think Durant is a better comp than the do-it-all wings like LeBron, Jordan, etc. in that he really isn't known as a great rebounder or playmaker.

But let's clear up a few things about Durant. First, he is not an elite athlete by NBA standards. Go back and look at how he did in the combine testing before his rookie year and he was very unimpressive. He couldn't bench 185 lbs one time and his max vertical was 33 inches. Wiggins can probably out-jump Durant by nearly a foot!

Where Durant has a massive advantage over Wiggins (and pretty much every other wing in the league) is freakish length, as he's nearly a 7-foot tall small forward with a ridiculous wingspan. Wiggins isn't even close to Durant in this aspect. That means he can get his shot off from anywhere, anytime. In fact, from an offensive standpoint, his height and wingspan is probably more of an advantage than Wiggins' athleticism. Wiggins will eventually slow down a bit. Durant will always have a length advantage.

As for outside shooting, while Durant wasn't a great 3-point shooter his rookie year, his field goal percentage from 16 feet out to the 3-point arc was about 40%. That's compared to Wiggins' 32%. You also conveniently left off his free throw percentage, which was elite from the beginning at 87%. He also got to the line at a higher rate than Wiggins as a rookie. When you have that kind of touch on long 2's and from the free throw line, it was only a matter of time before the 3-point shot would come around for KD (and sure enough, he knocked down 42% of his 3's the following season). So I'm with Cam that Wiggins has not demonstrated the outside shooting potential that Durant did his rookie season.

KD is a tough ceiling to reach as a scorer.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Durant's one of the best shooters in the league. Wiggins won't ever sniff that label.

Maybe, Cam...but you can't dispute that Wiggins is shooting threes better as a rookie than Durant did. The numbers don't lie. Maybe he won't continue to improve his shooting like Durant, but we don't know that...all we know is that he is a better shooter at this point in his career.

I'm actually amazed at Wiggins' shooting percentage, given the number of ridiculously difficult shots he takes. I can't think of anyone on the team that gives me the "No, no. no...okay, nice shot" experience more than Drew (LaVine and Gorgui are right behind him). Maybe he doesn't look at some of those shots as difficult shots and he will continue to take and make them. But I'm inclined to think that shooters get better because they learn what a good shot is, and I don't think Wig will be much different. As he learns to discriminate more with respect to shot opportunities, his shooting percentage should continue to go up...just like Durant's did.

The other reason great athletes like Wiggins and Durant become better shooters is that they realize they have to work on it. Durant's freakish length and Wigs' freakish athleticism allowed them both to score at will inside in their development years, and there was no need to establish an effective outside game. That's how a guy we think of as such an elite shooter as Durant only goes 28% beyond the arc his rookie year. But as they start to encounter more guys like Gobert and Davis, they realize they need to perfect their outside game too. And if they are elite talents like Durant and Wiggins, they do this successfully. Yet another reason I wouldn't be surprised to see Wiggins' shooting percentage soar as he gains more experience.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Since this is a Tanking thread, I feel we need to get back on topic.

ESPN is giving us the tanking Lakers tonight. I know ESPN doesn't care because, you know, they're still the Lakers.