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Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 pm
by Monster
Camden0916 wrote:This is a cost-effective off-season plan of attack that makes sense to me if I were the decision-maker for the Minnesota Timberwolves. These transactions don't necessarily guarantee the playoffs in 2021, but they quietly accomplish a lot here. They retain their most valuable free agents without overspending. They navigate a bevy of trade offers and draft high-upside two-way players. They also make a sneaky free agent signing to add some versatility to the roster.
NBA Draft:
- Timberwolves select F/C James Wiseman first overall.
- Timberwolves trade the 17th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs for the 11th overall pick.
- Timberwolves select G/F Devin Vassell 11th overall.
Free Agency:
- Timberwolves re-sign G Malik Beasley to a three-year, $33-million contract.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Jordan McLaughlin to a three-year, $5-million contract.
- Timberwolves sign G Shaquille Harrison to a three-year, $9-million contract.
- F James Johnson exercises his $16-million player option for the 2020-21 season.
Other Transactions:
- Timberwolves waive G Jacob Evans III.
Roster:
1: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin / Shaquille Harrison
2: Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie / Jaylen Nowell
3: Jarrett Culver / Jake Layman / Devin Vassell
4: Karl-Anthony Towns / James Johnson / Jarred Vanderbilt
5: James Wiseman / Naz Reid / Omari Spellman
Cam would you be willing to tell me more about Shaq Harrison? He is a good defender right? How much have you seen him play?
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:04 pm
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
I think if Wiseman got a full year he would have dominated pretty thoroughly and been the clear cut number 1 pick. A good big man in college can just dominate. There's a reason Ayton and Bagley went 1-2 in 2018 and I think Wiseman has a similar college season as them if he plays the whole year. Wiseman was 20-11-3 blocks in his 3 games and he was in a middling conference. They played 4 ranked teams the whole season. His one game against a ranked opponent in Oregon he still went 14/12 in 22 minutes on 8 shots.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:27 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
monsterpile wrote:Camden0916 wrote:This is a cost-effective off-season plan of attack that makes sense to me if I were the decision-maker for the Minnesota Timberwolves. These transactions don't necessarily guarantee the playoffs in 2021, but they quietly accomplish a lot here. They retain their most valuable free agents without overspending. They navigate a bevy of trade offers and draft high-upside two-way players. They also make a sneaky free agent signing to add some versatility to the roster.
NBA Draft:
- Timberwolves select F/C James Wiseman first overall.
- Timberwolves trade the 17th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs for the 11th overall pick.
- Timberwolves select G/F Devin Vassell 11th overall.
Free Agency:
- Timberwolves re-sign G Malik Beasley to a three-year, $33-million contract.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Jordan McLaughlin to a three-year, $5-million contract.
- Timberwolves sign G Shaquille Harrison to a three-year, $9-million contract.
- F James Johnson exercises his $16-million player option for the 2020-21 season.
Other Transactions:
- Timberwolves waive G Jacob Evans III.
Roster:
1: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin / Shaquille Harrison
2: Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie / Jaylen Nowell
3: Jarrett Culver / Jake Layman / Devin Vassell
4: Karl-Anthony Towns / James Johnson / Jarred Vanderbilt
5: James Wiseman / Naz Reid / Omari Spellman
Cam would you be willing to tell me more about Shaq Harrison? He is a good defender right? How much have you seen him play?
Harrison's defensive metrics are impressive. His 2.80 Defensive Real Plus-Minus places him 15th in the NBA, just a few places behind Dunn. His Defensive RAPTOR just edges Dunn's mark. His 4.9 deflections per 36 minutes and 2.3 loose balls recovered per 36 minutes rank toward the top of the league, per NBA.com's hustle stats. He has always been good at racking up steals, and his block percentage also jumped this season.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonpatt/2020/07/21/chicago-bulls-face-decision-defensive-dynamo-shaquille-harrison-offseason/
Shaq Harrison is a very good defender from what I've seen of him and the numbers check out there too albeit in limited fashion. My close friend is a Chicago Bulls fan and I probably watched a third of their games this season as a result of that friendship. Harrison is a defensive pest with great feet and quick hands. He's an above average NBA athlete and that's a notable characteristic. He slides really well and oftentimes he's able to make impact plays without selling out for them.
Harrison's been in the league for three seasons and he's been used anywhere from 1-4 depending on the lineup -- despite being 6'4, 190-pounds -- and his on/off metrics are favorable. He also showed improvement with his perimeter shooting in 2019-20 making 38.1-percent of his threes, but we'll need to see more volume before believing that it's truly is sustainable.
What I think Harrison is is a defensive game-changer cut from the same cloth of Marcus Smart, Delon Wright, Kris Dunn, etc. that isn't popular yet, but can be a very useful rotation player when used correctly. Not to mention, for Minnesota it gives them a different wrinkle at the point guard position in that he's a completely different player than D'Angelo Russell or Jordan McLaughlin. Harrison is a much better athlete and a much better defender that can fit next to a plethora of other players.
I think with Josh Okogie, Jarrett Culver, Devin Vassell (trade), and Harrison on the same roster you could almost guarantee that at least one strong perimeter defender would be on the court at all times while still allowing the offense to flow through Russell and J-Mac's hands. And in purely defensive situations you could roll out an impressive three or four defenders to get crucial stops.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:55 pm
by Monster
Camden0916 wrote:monsterpile wrote:Camden0916 wrote:This is a cost-effective off-season plan of attack that makes sense to me if I were the decision-maker for the Minnesota Timberwolves. These transactions don't necessarily guarantee the playoffs in 2021, but they quietly accomplish a lot here. They retain their most valuable free agents without overspending. They navigate a bevy of trade offers and draft high-upside two-way players. They also make a sneaky free agent signing to add some versatility to the roster.
NBA Draft:
- Timberwolves select F/C James Wiseman first overall.
- Timberwolves trade the 17th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs for the 11th overall pick.
- Timberwolves select G/F Devin Vassell 11th overall.
Free Agency:
- Timberwolves re-sign G Malik Beasley to a three-year, $33-million contract.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Jordan McLaughlin to a three-year, $5-million contract.
- Timberwolves sign G Shaquille Harrison to a three-year, $9-million contract.
- F James Johnson exercises his $16-million player option for the 2020-21 season.
Other Transactions:
- Timberwolves waive G Jacob Evans III.
Roster:
1: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin / Shaquille Harrison
2: Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie / Jaylen Nowell
3: Jarrett Culver / Jake Layman / Devin Vassell
4: Karl-Anthony Towns / James Johnson / Jarred Vanderbilt
5: James Wiseman / Naz Reid / Omari Spellman
Cam would you be willing to tell me more about Shaq Harrison? He is a good defender right? How much have you seen him play?
Harrison's defensive metrics are impressive. His 2.80 Defensive Real Plus-Minus places him 15th in the NBA, just a few places behind Dunn. His Defensive RAPTOR just edges Dunn's mark. His 4.9 deflections per 36 minutes and 2.3 loose balls recovered per 36 minutes rank toward the top of the league, per NBA.com's hustle stats. He has always been good at racking up steals, and his block percentage also jumped this season.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonpatt/2020/07/21/chicago-bulls-face-decision-defensive-dynamo-shaquille-harrison-offseason/
Shaq Harrison is a very good defender from what I've seen of him and the numbers check out there too albeit in limited fashion. My close friend is a Chicago Bulls fan and I probably watched a third of their games this season as a result of that friendship. Harrison is a defensive pest with great feet and quick hands. He's an above average NBA athlete and that's a notable characteristic. He slides really well and oftentimes he's able to make impact plays without selling out for them.
Harrison's been in the league for three seasons and he's been used anywhere from 1-4 depending on the lineup -- despite being 6'4, 190-pounds -- and his on/off metrics are favorable. He also showed improvement with his perimeter shooting in 2019-20 making 38.1-percent of his threes, but we'll need to see more volume before believing that it's truly is sustainable.
What I think Harrison is is a defensive game-changer cut from the same cloth of Marcus Smart, Delon Wright, Kris Dunn, etc. that isn't popular yet, but can be a very useful rotation player when used correctly. Not to mention, for Minnesota it gives them a different wrinkle at the point guard position in that he's a completely different player than D'Angelo Russell or Jordan McLaughlin. Harrison is a much better athlete and a much better defender that can fit next to a plethora of other players.
I think with Josh Okogie, Jarrett Culver, Devin Vassell (trade), and Harrison on the same roster you could almost guarantee that at least one strong perimeter defender would be on the court at all times while still allowing the offense to flow through Russell and J-Mac's hands. And in purely defensive situations you could roll out an impressive three or four defenders to get crucial stops.
Thanks Cam for the breakdown. I know that in the past the Dunc'd on guys always thought he was an NBA player. I'll also keep in mind that you watched that many Bulls games.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:08 pm
by Lipoli390
thedoper wrote:lipoli390 wrote:thedoper wrote:Tom Crean interview on Edwards. No surprise that he loves the kid.
https://www.si.com/.amp/nba/2020/10/27/anthony-edwards-nba-draft-tom-crean
Yep, no surprise. A college coach who doesn't publicly praise his former player heading into the draft is a coach who will never recruit a top player again. Having said that, Crean is quite honest in his assessment of Edwards. And reading between the lines, Crean's comments have cemented my biggest concerns about Edwards. Here are some of those comments:
"
The environment he's in, the mentors, the relationship with the coaches, all those things are going to be paramount, because that's really what he needs to thrive. There's no part of his game that he doesn't have a chance to be outstanding at. Does he have to get better as a rebounder? Does he have to be engaged for longer periods of time as a defender? Does he have to continue to improve his footwork and keep his release point where it needs to be? Could he get to the rim more? Yes, and we could go on about does he need to do more of this, and all that."
"
When he locks in -- and this is part of him taking it to a higher level -- he was doing some really good things by the end of the year...."
"
Way more often than not, he was in our gym at night after home games. There's just a lot there. And again, I always preface it, he needs the right environment to bring it out, and my greatest hope is that's what happens."
There are a lot of positives about Edwards that Crean mentions, including his size for his position, athleticism, skill set and potential - the things that make him so intriguing. I believe Crean's comment about Edwards being a great teammate and his empathy. Those qualities fit my sense of him after watching him in extended interviews. And while I see some merit to the Wiggins comparisons, I have also seen Edwards display great passion and competitiveness on the court that we never saw from Wiggins in college or the NBA.
But what still concerns me about Edwards are issues with his commitment and focus. I'm concerned to see his college coach go out of his way to emphasize the environment of the team that drafts him as "paramount." Note that after referring to his environment as paramount, Coach Crean went on to say ""And again, I always preface it, he needs the right environment..." I get the value of mentors and coaching for young draftees, but I don't recall seeing any similar comments about Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, Jamal Murray, James Harden, or Anthony Davis, etc., from their respective college coaches (or from anyone else for that matter). Crean also referred several times to the need for Edwards to be more engaged during games - another comment I don't recall seeing from coaches or analysts about the most successful top draft picks like the ones I listed.
I do like Edwards and drafting him doesn't concern me as much as drafting LaMello Ball. But there are too many concerns or yellow flags associated with Edwards to justify selecting him with the top pick in the draft. His head coach at Georgia, as positive as his comments were, only confirmed my concerns with Edwards.
Again, that's why I've come to the conclusion that, if the Wolves keep the pick, they should take Wiseman.
`
As Crean notes in the interview, Wiseman is a player with the advantage of not having his deficiencies scrutinized because he didn't play. If it's Wiseman it is mainly going to be that we love his body type and his workouts. If there was a year of tape there would be a lot more scrutiny about his weaknesses too. It's a crazy situation where 2 of the 3 top tier prospects didn't play in the typical context we are used to with draft picks. Crean just strikes me as transparent. Edwards' warts are there. I think the upside is real. The upside on Wiseman is real too, I just wish there was more tangible data in game tape to see what Wiseman plays like.
I largely agree, Doper. But those three games were enough to show that Wiseman runs the floor like a gazelle, gets off the floor quickly and can put up dominant numbers against college competition. To your point, because it was only three games (and fairly limited minutes), we didn't get the chance to see his weaknesses to the same extent as Edwards and others. And one of the risks of drafting Wiseman - the unknown, although one weakness I noticed was a lack of good lateral quickness. But he can make up for some of that with his 7'6" wingspan.
As you noted, Crean was fully transparent about Edwards. What troubles me is that the warts he acknowledged are rarely associated with high draft prospects who go onto be become perennial all-stars. I really wish Ja Morant had waited until this year to enter the draft. As it stands, Rosas has a tough decision to make. I'm leaning towards Wiseman, but I can see the case for Edwards.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:14 pm
by Lipoli390
Camden wrote:This is a cost-effective off-season plan of attack that makes sense to me if I were the decision-maker for the Minnesota Timberwolves. These transactions don't necessarily guarantee the playoffs in 2021, but they quietly accomplish a lot here. They retain their most valuable free agents without overspending. They navigate a bevy of trade offers and draft high-upside two-way players. They also make a sneaky free agent signing to add some versatility to the roster.
NBA Draft:
- Timberwolves select F/C James Wiseman first overall.
- Timberwolves trade the 17th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs for the 11th overall pick.
- Timberwolves select G/F Devin Vassell 11th overall.
Free Agency:
- Timberwolves re-sign G Malik Beasley to a three-year, $33-million contract.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Jordan McLaughlin to a three-year, $5-million contract.
- Timberwolves sign G Shaquille Harrison to a three-year, $9-million contract.
- F James Johnson exercises his $16-million player option for the 2020-21 season.
Other Transactions:
- Timberwolves waive G Jacob Evans III.
Roster:
1: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin / Shaquille Harrison
2: Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie / Jaylen Nowell
3: Jarrett Culver / Jake Layman / Devin Vassell
4: Karl-Anthony Towns / James Johnson / Jarred Vanderbilt
5: James Wiseman / Naz Reid / Omari Spellman
That's a great plan, Cam. I don't think #17 and 33 would get us all the way up to #11 or high enough to get Vassell. I also suspect that it will take $15 million per year to sign Beasley. I hadn't thought of Harrison, but he'd be be a nice pickup for the Wolves. If the Wolves were able to implement your plan, I think the resulting team would compete for a playoff spot. A lot depends on how well Towns and Russell play together and whether they both improve defensively.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:18 pm
by Lipoli390
khans2k5 wrote:I think if Wiseman got a full year he would have dominated pretty thoroughly and been the clear cut number 1 pick. A good big man in college can just dominate. There's a reason Ayton and Bagley went 1-2 in 2018 and I think Wiseman has a similar college season as them if he plays the whole year. Wiseman was 20-11-3 blocks in his 3 games and he was in a middling conference. They played 4 ranked teams the whole season. His one game against a ranked opponent in Oregon he still went 14/12 in 22 minutes on 8 shots.
You might be right, Kahns. But think about how Ayton and Bagley have performed since getting to the NBA. They dominated in college, but they've been lackluster in the NBA so far and if those drafts were redone, they'd fall a number of slots. What do you think distinguishes Wiseman from those two enough to suggest that Wiseman won't end up another Ayton or Bagley? I'm asking as someone leaning towards wanting the Wolves to draft Wiseman, but also nervous about him as our selection.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:41 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
lipoli390 wrote:Camden wrote:This is a cost-effective off-season plan of attack that makes sense to me if I were the decision-maker for the Minnesota Timberwolves. These transactions don't necessarily guarantee the playoffs in 2021, but they quietly accomplish a lot here. They retain their most valuable free agents without overspending. They navigate a bevy of trade offers and draft high-upside two-way players. They also make a sneaky free agent signing to add some versatility to the roster.
NBA Draft:
- Timberwolves select F/C James Wiseman first overall.
- Timberwolves trade the 17th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs for the 11th overall pick.
- Timberwolves select G/F Devin Vassell 11th overall.
Free Agency:
- Timberwolves re-sign G Malik Beasley to a three-year, $33-million contract.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Jordan McLaughlin to a three-year, $5-million contract.
- Timberwolves sign G Shaquille Harrison to a three-year, $9-million contract.
- F James Johnson exercises his $16-million player option for the 2020-21 season.
Other Transactions:
- Timberwolves waive G Jacob Evans III.
Roster:
1: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin / Shaquille Harrison
2: Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie / Jaylen Nowell
3: Jarrett Culver / Jake Layman / Devin Vassell
4: Karl-Anthony Towns / James Johnson / Jarred Vanderbilt
5: James Wiseman / Naz Reid / Omari Spellman
That's a great plan, Cam. I don't think #17 and 33 would get us all the way up to #11 or high enough to get Vassell. I also suspect that it will take $15 million per year to sign Beasley. I hadn't thought of Harrison, but he'd be be a nice pickup for the Wolves. If the Wolves were able to implement your plan, I think the resulting team would compete for a playoff spot. A lot depends on how well Towns and Russell play together and whether they both improve defensively.
The 33rd overall pick is practically a low first-round pick without some of the guaranteed money and years that comes with it. I've seen some former executives talk about those early second round picks having more value than the late firsts for those reasons.
I also used Kevin Pelton's draft pick value trade machine and 17 and 33 for 11 was deemed favorable for San Antonio so I went with it. As for where Devin Vassell gets selected, I agree that he
should get picked higher than 11, but as we've seen in past years teams talk themselves into the perceived potential of others and more sure things slide down the ladder a bit. I could see teams swing for the fences on Isaac Okoro, R.J. Hampton, Patrick Williams, and Kira Lewis Jr., essentially pushing Vassell to the back end of the lottery. And for my plan's sake, if Vassell is off the table, I'd be more than happy to take Saddiq Bey in that slot.
I sincerely hope that Malik Beasley doesn't get offered $15-million annually from anyone including the Wolves. He's just not worth that based on his production to date as I see it. I also saw Darren Wolfson tweet that based on what he's heard he thinks Beasley will get $10-12-million annually, for what it's worth. I don't trust Wolfson, but I hope he's right about that.
Your last sentence is the key to any plan the Wolves implement. Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell have to improve defensively or else this ship will not get very far. That's the truth.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:45 pm
by Monster
lipoli390 wrote:khans2k5 wrote:I think if Wiseman got a full year he would have dominated pretty thoroughly and been the clear cut number 1 pick. A good big man in college can just dominate. There's a reason Ayton and Bagley went 1-2 in 2018 and I think Wiseman has a similar college season as them if he plays the whole year. Wiseman was 20-11-3 blocks in his 3 games and he was in a middling conference. They played 4 ranked teams the whole season. His one game against a ranked opponent in Oregon he still went 14/12 in 22 minutes on 8 shots.
You might be right, Kahns. But think about how Ayton and Bagley have performed since getting to the NBA. They dominated in college, but they've been lackluster in the NBA so far and if those drafts were redone, they'd fall a number of slots. What do you think distinguishes Wiseman from those two enough to suggest that Wiseman won't end up another Ayton or Bagley? I'm asking as someone leaning towards wanting the Wolves to draft Wiseman, but also nervous about him as our selection.
I brought up Ayton in another thread but a big difference for me with Bagley is that I thought he was an absolutely terrible defender in college.
Re: Might as well talk draft....
Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:48 pm
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
monsterpile wrote:lipoli390 wrote:khans2k5 wrote:I think if Wiseman got a full year he would have dominated pretty thoroughly and been the clear cut number 1 pick. A good big man in college can just dominate. There's a reason Ayton and Bagley went 1-2 in 2018 and I think Wiseman has a similar college season as them if he plays the whole year. Wiseman was 20-11-3 blocks in his 3 games and he was in a middling conference. They played 4 ranked teams the whole season. His one game against a ranked opponent in Oregon he still went 14/12 in 22 minutes on 8 shots.
You might be right, Kahns. But think about how Ayton and Bagley have performed since getting to the NBA. They dominated in college, but they've been lackluster in the NBA so far and if those drafts were redone, they'd fall a number of slots. What do you think distinguishes Wiseman from those two enough to suggest that Wiseman won't end up another Ayton or Bagley? I'm asking as someone leaning towards wanting the Wolves to draft Wiseman, but also nervous about him as our selection.
I brought up Ayton in another thread but a big difference for me with Bagley is that I thought he was an absolutely terrible defender in college.
Both guys have less than 2 years in the league with this shortened season and it's typically a big learning curve to play against college bigs and then play against real NBA bigs. Who knows how much better they'll get? Ayton is already a 20/10 guy so he just needs to play better defense and he's a top Center in the league. He had some very solid performances in the bubble that helped that team beat some good teams (23/10 to beat Indy, 18/12 to beat Miami, 19/7/4 to beat the Clippers). Bagley has further to go but injuries have stifled his development thus far and in the right high pace system can be very valuable.
I guess the piece that confuses me is you are always touting Towns for the points and rebounds on the stat sheet so why would that not be the same with a guy like Wiseman? Why does Towns get the free pass and it's on Wiseman to cover that hole up? Wiseman is a 20/10 guy because his relentlessness on the offensive glass and he runs the floor well so it's a different skillset from Towns. I see it like adding a bigger, faster Tristan Thompson who has the potential to shoot down the line (his high school stats while a small sample size has him 8/16 from 3 in 10 games for his AAU team in 2018).
At some point just having a bunch of 7 footers has to mean something for defense at the rim. It's a different game when a 7 footer is rotating to help than a guy like Covington or James Johnson. At the end of the day I think Bennett will be bad unless he goes to GS to learn how to play basketball properly in a proper system and Ball will be like a worse Ricky Rubio because he won't play defense so I'll take the 20/10 guy and figure out the defense later.