Minnesota Sports Forum

I've known that, at age 35 with a history of injuries, Conley's been a shadow of his former self for a while. But I didn't realize how dim that shadow is until now when i glanced at his stats. He's averaging 10.3 points on 38.6% shooting from the field. No, that's not his three-point percentage; that's his FG percentage. He's averaging 7.5 assists, but only 2.3 rebounds. He's not a great defender. Honestly, I don't know why any Wolves fan would be remotely interested in trading DLO for Conley. Danny Ainge is probably drooling at the prospect of fleecing Tim Conley a second time in 6 months. But who knows, maybe Tim can get one of those four future unprotected 1st round picks back as part of a DLO for Conley swap. :)

lipoli390 wrote:I've known that, at age 35 with a history of injuries, Conley's been a shadow of his former self for a while. But I didn't realize how dim that shadow is until now when i glanced at his stats. He's averaging 10.3 points on 38.6% shooting from the field. No, that's not his three-point percentage; that's his FG percentage. He's averaging 7.5 assists, but only 2.3 rebounds. He's not a great defender. Honestly, I don't know why any Wolves fan would be remotely interested in trading DLO for Conley. Danny Ainge is probably drooling at the prospect of fleecing Tim Conley a second time in 6 months. But who knows, maybe Tim can get one of those four future unprotected 1st round picks back as part of a DLO for Conley swap. :)

Not saying Conley is perfect and I would rather have Dlo but Conley has a net rating of 0.7 per 100 possessions this year and his on/off numbers are 0. Compare that to Dlo -1.6 net rating and a On/off the wolves are 4.5 pts worse with Dlo on the court than off it this year.

Now Conley got used to playing with Gobert also. Conley and Gobert had a net rating of 10.3 pts per 100 possessions last year (95th percentile) and 14.2 pts per 100 possessions (98th percentile) in Conley/gobert lineups without Mitchell (if you think Mitchell was carrying the team)

Then Dlo and Gobert have a net rating of -1.1 this year per 100 possessions and a net rating of -9 (10th percentile) in Dlo/Gobert lineups without Ant (if you think Ant is carrying the team)

So I still would rather want Dlo based on age assuming it's a straight swap but Conley learned to and had massive success with Gobert as early as last that while Dlo has really struggled having team success when him and Gobert are on the court together. Once again context matters and just because the 2 man lineups of these players with gobert are eye popping it does not mean that those specific players are the only reason those lineups succeed or fail.

I just wanted to bring up numbers to support why might want to do that trade

I hadn't thought of the Gobert-Conley combo as a selling point for the deal. Like you, I still wouldn't do the deal, but it's an interesting angle.

Here's another consideration. Mike Conley Jr. enjoyed much of his success by playing with Rudy Gobert in the pick-and-roll, which is objectively where Gobert is at his best offensively. Utah led the league in pick-and-roll frequency and points-per-possession on their way to having the number one offensive rating in basketball last season.

By the numbers, D'Angelo Russell is equally good, if not better, as the pick-and-roll ball-handler than Conley Jr., and Gobert is still an elite roll-man despite the serious decrease in volume, but yet Chris Finch and the Timberwolves still refuse to rely on that playtype heavily. They're 18th in pick-and-roll possessions used this season despite having a number of players that thrive in that action. I guess I should actually be pleased considering they were 23rd about a month ago so at least they're trending in the right direction. It's still inexcusable to be this low, however.

Anyways, if Minnesota acquires Conley Jr. because he has a history of playing well with Gobert, then shouldn't Minnesota also be prepared to adjust their style to accommodate for what worked for them? And if they're going to do that, then why the fuck haven't they adjusted already given that they currently have the personnel for it? Do we understand how ass-backwards that is? The very few things Gobert does at a really high level -- the things that made Minnesota want him so badly -- haven't been utilized in Minnesota let alone maximized.

Lip, the reason Wolves' fans should embrace a Russell/Conley trade is that only one player in the trade is a winner...even at 36. Conley is shooting terribly this season, but his value to the Jazz is indisputable if you have watched them with and without him. Case in point: the Jazz started the season 12-6 with Conley running the point, but then promptly lost their next five games when Conley went down with a knee strain.

Several have said it here often, but what the Wolves need is a steady pass-first PG who is a proven on-court and locker room leader and also plays solid NBA defense, and that's what Conley is. His overall shooting percentage is horrible this year, but his 3-point percentage is less than a percentage point lower than Dlo's, whose 3-point shooting is heralded in this forum. But what I like most about Conley is that he is pass-first and facilitates in a very efficient manner. I love the idea of pairing a PG who doesn't need shots but has 7.5 assists with only 1.6 turnovers. That is just what we need to unlock the offensive efficiency of Ant/KAT/Rudy/Jaden.

And we can't ignore Kekgeek's analysis of the effectiveness of the Gobert/Conley tandem just last year compared to Gobert/DLo this season...a difference of more than 10 points per 100 possessions! There has been a narrative advanced here that it is Finchie's fault that DLo is not running more pick and roll with Gobert, but I find that argument a non-starter. I don't hear the coach imploring his point guards to run less pick and roll either during the game or in his post-game interviews. Point guards are naturally going to revert to a playing style with which they are most comfortable, and Conley and DLo have markedly different offensive styles...and one works with Rudy, and one doesn't. It's as simple as that.

Danny Ainge is a savvy executive, so I can't imagine why he would want to trade his floor leader for D'Angelo Russell. He knows that developing young talent is the key to future success for the Jazz (11 players on their current roster are under 25), and who do you think he wants mentoring these young players...Conley or Russell? But there are rumors out there about this deal, and I guess a Wolves fan can always dream.

Camden wrote:Here's another consideration. Mike Conley Jr. enjoyed much of his success by playing with Rudy Gobert in the pick-and-roll, which is objectively where Gobert is at his best offensively. Utah led the league in pick-and-roll frequency and points-per-possession on their way to having the number one offensive rating in basketball last season.

By the numbers, D'Angelo Russell is equally good, if not better, as the pick-and-roll ball-handler than Conley Jr., and Gobert is still an elite roll-man despite the serious decrease in volume, but yet Chris Finch and the Timberwolves still refuse to rely on that playtype heavily. They're 18th in pick-and-roll possessions used this season despite having a number of players that thrive in that action. I guess I should actually be pleased considering they were 23rd about a month ago so at least they're trending in the right direction. It's still inexcusable to be this low, however.

Anyways, if Minnesota acquires Conley Jr. because he has a history of playing well with Gobert, then shouldn't Minnesota also be prepared to adjust their style to accommodate for what worked for them? And if they're going to do that, then why the fuck haven't they adjusted already given that they currently have the personnel for it? Do we understand how ass-backwards that is? The very few things Gobert does at a really high level -- the things that made Minnesota want him so badly -- haven't been utilized in Minnesota let alone maximized.

Take this as you will but Dane Moore has mentioned multiple times that Finch lets the players run what they want to run offensively like 90% of the time. If Dlo wanted to run more PnR he is more than welcome to do so. Now dane has speculated that this is because Dlo just doesn't like running PnR much.

Once again this is speculation so take it how you take it but I do believe for the most part Finch likes to give his players the option to run what they like to run.

kekgeek1 wrote:

Camden wrote:Here's another consideration. Mike Conley Jr. enjoyed much of his success by playing with Rudy Gobert in the pick-and-roll, which is objectively where Gobert is at his best offensively. Utah led the league in pick-and-roll frequency and points-per-possession on their way to having the number one offensive rating in basketball last season.

By the numbers, D'Angelo Russell is equally good, if not better, as the pick-and-roll ball-handler than Conley Jr., and Gobert is still an elite roll-man despite the serious decrease in volume, but yet Chris Finch and the Timberwolves still refuse to rely on that playtype heavily. They're 18th in pick-and-roll possessions used this season despite having a number of players that thrive in that action. I guess I should actually be pleased considering they were 23rd about a month ago so at least they're trending in the right direction. It's still inexcusable to be this low, however.

Anyways, if Minnesota acquires Conley Jr. because he has a history of playing well with Gobert, then shouldn't Minnesota also be prepared to adjust their style to accommodate for what worked for them? And if they're going to do that, then why the fuck haven't they adjusted already given that they currently have the personnel for it? Do we understand how ass-backwards that is? The very few things Gobert does at a really high level -- the things that made Minnesota want him so badly -- haven't been utilized in Minnesota let alone maximized.

Take this as you will but Dane Moore has mentioned multiple times that Finch lets the players run what they want to run offensively like 90% of the time. If Dlo wanted to run more PnR he is more than welcome to do so. Now dane has speculated that this is because Dlo just doesn't like running PnR much.

Once again this is speculation so take it how you take it but I do believe for the most part Finch likes to give his players the option to run what they like to run.

Exactly! Finch does not appear to be a micro-manager in terms of the offense. He will criticize the early-in-the-clock hero ball shot (and we have three main culprits there), but praises any kind of play that gets multiple players involved...be it pick and roll or ball movement around the perimeter (or the designed offense against zones that puts SloMo in the middle as a facilitator). DLo and Lowry have completely different styles on offense, and both have had some success in their careers with their particular style and aren't going to change. DLo is the far better individual shot creator, and thrives on dribbling into the key looking for a mid-range shot...and he's good at it, albeit sometimes erratic. Lowry on the other hand thrived working the pick and roll with Rudy when they were together. I'm not saying one style is better than the other, merely that one style seems to fit better with the personnel we currently have.

kekgeek1 wrote:

Camden wrote:Here's another consideration. Mike Conley Jr. enjoyed much of his success by playing with Rudy Gobert in the pick-and-roll, which is objectively where Gobert is at his best offensively. Utah led the league in pick-and-roll frequency and points-per-possession on their way to having the number one offensive rating in basketball last season.

By the numbers, D'Angelo Russell is equally good, if not better, as the pick-and-roll ball-handler than Conley Jr., and Gobert is still an elite roll-man despite the serious decrease in volume, but yet Chris Finch and the Timberwolves still refuse to rely on that playtype heavily. They're 18th in pick-and-roll possessions used this season despite having a number of players that thrive in that action. I guess I should actually be pleased considering they were 23rd about a month ago so at least they're trending in the right direction. It's still inexcusable to be this low, however.

Anyways, if Minnesota acquires Conley Jr. because he has a history of playing well with Gobert, then shouldn't Minnesota also be prepared to adjust their style to accommodate for what worked for them? And if they're going to do that, then why the fuck haven't they adjusted already given that they currently have the personnel for it? Do we understand how ass-backwards that is? The very few things Gobert does at a really high level -- the things that made Minnesota want him so badly -- haven't been utilized in Minnesota let alone maximized.

Take this as you will but Dane Moore has mentioned multiple times that Finch lets the players run what they want to run offensively like 90% of the time. If Dlo wanted to run more PnR he is more than welcome to do so. Now dane has speculated that this is because Dlo just doesn't like running PnR much.

Once again this is speculation so take it how you take it but I do believe for the most part Finch likes to give his players the option to run what they like to run.

I've seen you comment this before, but it's difficult to take that speculation seriously given everything to account for.

"Well, right now with Rudy on the floor in the pick-and-roll, we run a ton of it. Maybe too much. We know what teams are in a drop coverage and it's got us bottled up a little bit. I'd like to just see more ball movement and less pick-and-roll at times. An opportunity to find other guys and other options in the flow of what we can do."

- Chris Finch earlier this season after a loss against San Antonio

Now, that's just a single quote from the horse's mouth, but if we know Finch's history, we know that teams he's coached typically aren't pick-and-roll centric. That's never been his style. That tells me it's not an action that he's a strong proponent for and he's alluded to that multiple times in various post-game pressers by hinting that he would like to see more "flow" and passing around the perimeter versus pick-and-roll. Again, it's not necessarily that Finch is dictating against pick-and-roll, but he should be encouraging more and more of it, and it's clear he's not. The proof is in the numbers. This team should be much higher than 18th in pick-and-roll possessions used given the personnel. I don't see how anyone could realistically dispute against that.

Furthermore, the idea that D'Angelo Russell just "doesn't like" running pick-and-roll is... well, that's something. His singular All-Star nomination, or perhaps the peak of D-Lo's career, came during the 2018-19 season in which Brooklyn was third in the league in pick-and-roll play with Russell ranking second in the entire league in pick-and-roll possessions used... It would be wildly illogical to assume that a ball-handler that has typically thrived in pick-and-roll game for his entire career, especially at its heights, to all of a sudden be averse to it when given an elite roll-man to pair with. No, it's clear to me that Russell is operating under Finch's leadership here.

Lastly, when I talk about the team not running enough pick-and-roll, that goes further than Russell. Minnesota has a number of good options there as ball-handlers and roll-men. Russell is among that group with Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Nowell, Jordan McLaughlin, and Kyle Anderson. Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid are elite producers in that action as well. I've illustrated the numbers in the past, but it's all publicly accessible stuff here. The Timberwolves should be spamming pick-and-roll given this roster, and that includes more than just Russell. The coaching is very likely the reason why they aren't.

I just don't get the value of the vaunted "salary slot" if all you end up with is a declining player that won't move the needle much more than DLO. Aren't you then looking to trade that player next year as an expiring? And what do we get back then? Probably another declining or sub-optimal player.

Unless you can somehow parlay DLO into an asset that is actually more valuable to us, then I just don't see the point to trading DLO or maintaining the salary slot. I know that could put us in a pickle for next year at PG. TC and Finch will need to figure that out.

Q-was-here wrote:I just don't get the value of the vaunted "salary slot" if all you end up with is a declining player that won't move the needle much more than DLO. Aren't you then looking to trade that player next year as an expiring? And what do we get back then? Probably another declining or sub-optimal player.

Unless you can somehow parlay DLO into an asset that is actually more valuable to us, then I just don't see the point to trading DLO or maintaining the salary slot. I know that could put us in a pickle for next year at PG. TC and Finch will need to figure that out.

It could be a declining or sub-optimal player yes, but there is going to be less risk for other teams when the cap is going up which means there may be the chance to actually acquire an asset. I think we have to be looking at being a 3rd team to become incrementally better. I don't know if there are going to be a large swath of teams looking to dump salary with a cap bump coming, but I do think that could be a reality once the new cap numbers come into play. Having that 30 mil in a cap environment with more movement gives us more options to be deal makers. It's our only chance to keep this capital flexibility and build the breadth and depth of our team. Wasting that option is foolish from a flexibility standpoint IMO.

For instance lets say Detroit, New York, OKC, Orlando see promise and decide that next year is their year to make a push for veteran talent, they may not want an aging PG but certainly may need a mechanism to get to 30 mil.

I don't think the MLE will solve our PG situation next year, that would mean ditching an actual asset to acquire someone. And we really don't have many assets that we could look to deal next year apart from a massive KAT deal and a more moderate Rudy deal.