KG4Ever wrote:Per Dane Moore, "I've been saying for the past month that I've heard it is over a 50% chance that D'Angelo Russell is traded this offseason. Conversations with a few non-Timberwolves sources today suggest a Russell trade is now even more likely -- either tonight or the first week of July."
Interesting. I'm never sure how much Dane Moore actually knows versus speculation. But I like him and think he often has some well-informed smart takes.
Is "over a 50-percent chance" a high probability? What does that even tell us? There's a zero-percent chance that Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns get traded this off-season. Every other player on Minnesota's roster has some chance of being dealt depending on the offer, but I'm not sure how you put a numerical value on it. Maybe he was saying it's more likely than not that Russell gets traded? If that's the case, why put a percentage on it? Seems like an odd way of framing that to me.
I think there's "over a 50-percent chance" that Dane Moore actually has informed sources around the league. Is that high or low for a beat writer? That number drops dramatically if we're talking about Darren "Doogie" Wolfson. And then there's Britt Robson and Jerry Zgoda who are as insufferable as they are unconnected. Jon Krawczynski is our only hope.
Camden wrote:Is "over a 50-percent chance" a high probability? What does that even tell us? There's a zero-percent chance that Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns get traded this off-season. Every other player on Minnesota's roster has some chance of being dealt depending on the offer, but I'm not sure how you put a numerical value on it. Maybe he was saying it's more likely than not that Russell gets traded? If that's the case, why put a percentage on it? Seems like an odd way of framing that to me.
I think there's "over a 50-percent chance" that Dane Moore actually has informed sources around the league. Is that high or low for a beat writer? That number drops dramatically if we're talking about Darren "Doogie" Wolfson. And then there's Britt Robson and Jerry Zgoda who are as insufferable as they are unconnected. Jon Krawczynski is our only hope.
Exactly. And at the risk of sounding disrespectful towards Dane Moore, this is what the bloggers do. They declare every future event "50%" so if it happens they can say they called it, and if it doesn't they can say "I only said 50%".
Camden wrote:Is "over a 50-percent chance" a high probability? What does that even tell us? There's a zero-percent chance that Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns get traded this off-season. Every other player on Minnesota's roster has some chance of being dealt depending on the offer, but I'm not sure how you put a numerical value on it. Maybe he was saying it's more likely than not that Russell gets traded? If that's the case, why put a percentage on it? Seems like an odd way of framing that to me.
I think there's "over a 50-percent chance" that Dane Moore actually has informed sources around the league. Is that high or low for a beat writer? That number drops dramatically if we're talking about Darren "Doogie" Wolfson. And then there's Britt Robson and Jerry Zgoda who are as insufferable as they are unconnected. Jon Krawczynski is our only hope.
I agree with all your points, Cam. And I'm with you completely on Robson and Zgoda!
