The DLO Trade

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

For the XX time, I personally don't care about plus-minus as a singular, player-defining statistic. And frankly, I never have, which makes it especially odd that it continues to be used in response to me. I find it to be incredibly noisy on its own for reasons that have nothing to do with the player in question. It's one of many stats that should be used collectively in determining whether a player is valuable or not. So, as respectfully as I can say this, please spare me from all discussion of plus-minus relevance unless you want me to reply with "All hail the plus-minus gods" sarcastically. I'd be more inclined to entertain an argument that didn't include plus-minus -- one of which I don't typically see from D'Angelo Russell detractors.

I'm not saying you can't make your own conclusions based on whatever individual statistic you want. I'm just saying that throwing it at me continuously will not move the conversation forward -- at least not with me anyways.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

For the XX time, I personally don't care about plus-minus as a singular, player-defining statistic. And frankly, I never have, which makes it especially odd that it continues to be used in response to me. I find it to be incredibly noisy on its own for reasons that have nothing to do with the player in question. It's one of many stats that should be used collectively in determining whether a player is valuable or not. So, as respectfully as I can say this, please spare me from all discussion of plus-minus relevance unless you want me to reply with "All hail the plus-minus gods" sarcastically. I'd be more inclined to entertain an argument that didn't include plus-minus -- one of which I don't typically see from D'Angelo Russell detractors.

I'm not saying you can't make your own conclusions based on whatever individual statistic you want. I'm just saying that throwing it at me continuously will not move the conversation forward -- at least not with me anyways.

But Cam, setting KG4EVER's aggressive and disrespectful tone aside, you cannot just sweep the +/- and net On/Off stuff under the rug. Over larger sample sizes, I don't know how you can simply ignore it and cast it off as "noise". If it were such a random, noisy statistic, why do the players that most NBA fans agree are great players consistently do well in it?

KAT has been on terribly crappy teams with crappy teammates most of his career. Yet his net rating is slightly positive and his net on/off ratings is substantively positive. Same with Bradley Beal, who similarly has been on a lot of crappy lineups. I could go on....

You need to put together a deeper and more intellectually sound argument as to why it doesn't apply that well to DLO. Perhaps you don't want to take the time which is fine. But I think this is a blind spot if you keep just dismissing it.

[thedoper]

The problem with any stat based on + - is that players who play with great players also consistently do well in it. See all of the Bucks that were in the top 20 last year. That in itself means there's likely at least a 20% margin of error in how it ranks players relative to eachother (likely a lot higher). In any other statistical analysis outside of basketball that wouldnt be called noise, that would get you laughed out of the room.

If in a whole year if all of the players who played with Giannis are inflated it shouldnt be used as a primary individual stat and at best is noisy when applied that way. It should never be used in my opinion to negate a players clearly positive raw numbers. Its also highly situational. I think its clear that a good (not great) starter on a really bad team will consistently have a bad +-. DLo has only played on one team that was even good.


+ - and all the stats that use that metric as a foundation are best used as a measure of a players adaptability and complimentary characteristics within a particular lineup, not their contribution to winning or to the success of that lineup. I do think it has a place in this discussion. For instance DLo seems to be a tough player to find the right complimentary pieces for in a lineup. I think that statement would fit the statistical narrative that +- paints.

I dont think its a huge revelation that great players should have a higher +-, they do. But I dont believe you can in any way use +- to determine a player's greatness.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

The problem with any stat based on + - is that players who play with great players also consistently do well in it. See all of the Bucks that were in the top 20 last year. That in itself means there's likely at least a 20% margin of error in how it ranks players relative to eachother (likely a lot higher). In any other statistical analysis outside of basketball that wouldnt be called noise, that would get you laughed out of the room.

If in a whole year if all of the players who played with Giannis are inflated it shouldnt be used as a primary individual stat and at best is noisy when applied that way. It should never be used in my opinion to negate a players clearly positive raw numbers. Its also highly situational. I think its clear that a good (not great) starter on a really bad team will consistently have a bad +-. DLo has only played on one team that was even good.


+ - and all the stats that use that metric as a foundation are best used as a measure of a players adaptability and complimentary characteristics within a particular lineup, not their contribution to winning or to the success of that lineup. I do think it has a place in this discussion. For instance DLo seems to be a tough player to find the right complimentary pieces for in a lineup. I think that statement would fit the statistical narrative that +- paints.

I dont think its a huge revelation that great players should have a higher +-, they do. But I dont believe you can in any way use +- to determine a player's greatness.

Doper, it's not just net rating that I look at (which is basically the difference in points per 100 possessions when the player is on the floor and the metric you are referring to above). It's also net On/Off rating, which shows the difference between what happens to team performance when the player is on vs. off the floor. So you are only looking at one aspect of +/-.

The other thing you need to look at is how does the player do versus other starters on the same team in the same metric? In other words, now you are comparing apples to apples.

So if I look at the last two full seasons for Giannis, yes, the guys that start with him get inflated +/- and net on/off ratings, but guess whose is better than the other starters? Giannis. Huh, I wonder why that is? May be because he's the best player on the team.

The statistical analysts you cite above also take relativity as a sound scientific concept - almost like grading on a curve.

So to summarize:
1. +/- and net On/Off should be looked at over long time periods/large sample sizes, because yes, it is noisier that purely individual stats like PER.

2. +/- should be looked at relative to other players on the same team in a similar situation (starter vs. bench).

3. Yes, it should be combined with individual performance metrics to form an overall view of a player.

Based on those three factors, I consider DLO to be a neutral at best player in terms of team impact that needs a really specific set of skill-sets around him to be a net positive in that area. I'd be fine with that if he were paid $10-15M per year vs. on a max deal.

[KG4Ever]

For the XX time, I personally don't care about plus-minus as a singular, player-defining statistic. And frankly, I never have, which makes it especially odd that it continues to be used in response to me. I find it to be incredibly noisy on its own for reasons that have nothing to do with the player in question. It's one of many stats that should be used collectively in determining whether a player is valuable or not. So, as respectfully as I can say this, please spare me from all discussion of plus-minus relevance unless you want me to reply with "All hail the plus-minus gods" sarcastically. I'd be more inclined to entertain an argument that didn't include plus-minus -- one of which I don't typically see from D'Angelo Russell detractors.

I'm not saying you can't make your own conclusions based on whatever individual statistic you want. I'm just saying that throwing it at me continuously will not move the conversation forward -- at least not with me anyways.

Cam, you call it noise because it challenges your narrative and you'd rather cherry pick whatever suits you. I questioned DLO's value with you for the past year and you were condescending and dismissive. All you said was that he was a "young All-Star" and deserved the max and it was well worth it to give up draft picks and Wiggins to get him. All-Star, Schmall Star means nothing, its what the player brings to the table and DLO despite his outside shooting prowess, is a huge liability on the defensive end, and the ball movement slows down when he's running the offense.

[Jester1534]

Idk if there is one but basketball really needs a WAR stat like baseball.

Its simple stat Wins above replacment. How much is that player worth if you were to replace him with league average player at that position. This takes account defense and offense.

This why Byron Buxton War is always postive because no matter how bad he hits. Hes always going to be in top 3 for defensive centerfielders.

So what is difference between starting T.J. McConnell who I looked at some website has him rank 25th out 50 point guards than DLO.

Feel like +/- stat has nothing to do with indiviual player. I do like the per 100 possesion because i believe thats closer to the WAR stat for baseball.

sorry for ramblin ill take my sabermetric baseball crap elsewhere lol

[Coolbreeze44]

Idk if there is one but basketball really needs a WAR stat like baseball.

Its simple stat Wins above replacment. How much is that player worth if you were to replace him with league average player at that position. This takes account defense and offense.

This why Byron Buxton War is always postive because no matter how bad he hits. Hes always going to be in top 3 for defensive centerfielders.

So what is difference between starting T.J. McConnell who I looked at some website has him rank 25th out 50 point guards than DLO.

Feel like +/- stat has nothing to do with indiviual player. I do like the per 100 possesion because i believe thats closer to the WAR stat for baseball.

sorry for ramblin ill take my sabermetric baseball crap elsewhere lol

The NBA has win shares. It's an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. Here are the Wolves rankings:
#114 - Malik Beasley .8
#127 - Naz Reid .8
#133 - J. Vanderbilt .8
#181 - KAT .6
#188 - Ed Davis .5
#246 - J. McLaughlin .3
#251 - DLO .3
#273 - J. Hernangomez .2
#277 - J. Layman .2
#286 - J. Okogie .2
#292 - Ricky Rubio .2
#312 - J. Culver .1
#332 - J. Nowell .1
#382 - Ashton Hagans 0
#403 - J. McDaniels 0
#470 - Ant Edwards -.8 (worst in the league)

[Jester1534]

Idk if there is one but basketball really needs a WAR stat like baseball.

Its simple stat Wins above replacment. How much is that player worth if you were to replace him with league average player at that position. This takes account defense and offense.

This why Byron Buxton War is always postive because no matter how bad he hits. Hes always going to be in top 3 for defensive centerfielders.

So what is difference between starting T.J. McConnell who I looked at some website has him rank 25th out 50 point guards than DLO.

Feel like +/- stat has nothing to do with indiviual player. I do like the per 100 possesion because i believe thats closer to the WAR stat for baseball.

sorry for ramblin ill take my sabermetric baseball crap elsewhere lol

The NBA has win shares. It's an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. Here are the Wolves rankings:
#114 - Malik Beasley .8
#127 - Naz Reid .8
#133 - J. Vanderbilt .8
#181 - KAT .6
#188 - Ed Davis .5
#246 - J. McLaughlin .3
#251 - DLO .3
#273 - J. Hernangomez .2
#277 - J. Layman .2
#286 - J. Okogie .2
#292 - Ricky Rubio .2
#312 - J. Culver .1
#332 - J. Nowell .1
#382 - Ashton Hagans 0
#403 - J. McDaniels 0
#470 - Ant Edwards -.8 (worst in the league)

Idk if its similar to win shares in baseball. But the differnce in baseball win shares takes account if your team was good or bad as WAR it doesn't take account if your team sucks or not.

[AbeVigodaLive]

To be fair, I don't

Idk if there is one but basketball really needs a WAR stat like baseball.

Its simple stat Wins above replacment. How much is that player worth if you were to replace him with league average player at that position. This takes account defense and offense.

This why Byron Buxton War is always postive because no matter how bad he hits. Hes always going to be in top 3 for defensive centerfielders.

So what is difference between starting T.J. McConnell who I looked at some website has him rank 25th out 50 point guards than DLO.

Feel like +/- stat has nothing to do with indiviual player. I do like the per 100 possesion because i believe thats closer to the WAR stat for baseball.

sorry for ramblin ill take my sabermetric baseball crap elsewhere lol

The NBA has win shares. It's an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. Here are the Wolves rankings:
#114 - Malik Beasley .8
#127 - Naz Reid .8
#133 - J. Vanderbilt .8
#181 - KAT .6
#188 - Ed Davis .5
#246 - J. McLaughlin .3
#251 - DLO .3
#273 - J. Hernangomez .2
#277 - J. Layman .2
#286 - J. Okogie .2
#292 - Ricky Rubio .2
#312 - J. Culver .1
#332 - J. Nowell .1
#382 - Ashton Hagans 0
#403 - J. McDaniels 0
#470 - Ant Edwards -.8 (worst in the league)

Kevin Love used to consistently end up in the top 10 for that stat... while being the only player in the top 20 from a losing team.

#4 on 26 - 40 team.
#3 on 40 - 42 team.
#9 on 17 - 65 team!!!! (everybody else in the top 20 won at least 44 games.)

It remains one of the many goofy, unprecedented anomalies that have happened in Wolves history.

[Coolbreeze44]

Idk if there is one but basketball really needs a WAR stat like baseball.

Its simple stat Wins above replacment. How much is that player worth if you were to replace him with league average player at that position. This takes account defense and offense.

This why Byron Buxton War is always postive because no matter how bad he hits. Hes always going to be in top 3 for defensive centerfielders.

So what is difference between starting T.J. McConnell who I looked at some website has him rank 25th out 50 point guards than DLO.

Feel like +/- stat has nothing to do with indiviual player. I do like the per 100 possesion because i believe thats closer to the WAR stat for baseball.

sorry for ramblin ill take my sabermetric baseball crap elsewhere lol

The NBA has win shares. It's an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. Here are the Wolves rankings:
#114 - Malik Beasley .8
#127 - Naz Reid .8
#133 - J. Vanderbilt .8
#181 - KAT .6
#188 - Ed Davis .5
#246 - J. McLaughlin .3
#251 - DLO .3
#273 - J. Hernangomez .2
#277 - J. Layman .2
#286 - J. Okogie .2
#292 - Ricky Rubio .2
#312 - J. Culver .1
#332 - J. Nowell .1
#382 - Ashton Hagans 0
#403 - J. McDaniels 0
#470 - Ant Edwards -.8 (worst in the league)

Idk if its similar to win shares in baseball. But the differnce in baseball win shares takes account if your team was good or bad as WAR it doesn't take account if your team sucks or not.

I think you're looking or VORP - Value Over Replacement Player.