The DLO Trade

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Lipoli390
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The DLO Trade

Post by Lipoli390 »

There's an article from the Athletic evaluating the DLO-Wiggins deal. I didn't like the deal at the time and it looks even worse now with hindsight. Interestingly, the article explains the huge luxury tax and roster benefits the Warriors received by getting the Wolves to take Spellman and Evans in the deal. What the article doesn't mention is that taking on those deals ultimately pushed the Wolves over the luxury tax line. The article also reinforces what seemed obvious to me, i.e., the Warriors had no other serious suitors for DLO, which is why I've always viewed what Rosas gave up to get DLO as amateur hour.

I can imagine the phone conversation between the Warriors front office and Rosas as they negotiated the trade. It probably went something like this:

The Warriors executives asked Rosas for both of the Wolves' 2021 draft picks to consummate the deal. After a short silence, Rosas replied, "that's not acceptable, but we'll agree if the pick is lottery protected." The Warriors execs pressed the mute button on the conference phone and discussed whether they should reply with a yes. After all, they had no use for Russell and no other team seemed interested in the mercurial PG who has one of the worst defensive ratings in the League and who was playing on his 3rd team in 4 years.

But then someone at the table in the Warriors conference room suggested that they take one more shot at getting more. "How about proposing top 3 protection," mused one of the executives to his colleagues at the table." The others laughed, one of them saying, "they'll never go for that and we should consider ourselves lucky that they're OK with lottery protection." But then they all agreed to give it a shot. After all, they had nothing to lose in asking.

So they took themselves off mute and GM Michael Meyers pitched top 3 protection as the Warriors official counter. After a few moments of silence, Gersson replied with the word no one in the Warriors conference room expected to hear, namely YES. The conference call ended and in a moment of stunned silence Warriors GM Meyers shouted, "they bought it!" They all laughed and exchanged high fives around the table. The rest is history. They avoided a much higher luxury tax and freed up two roster spots. More importantly, they obtained a likely high lottery pick as well as a 2nd round pick they used to get Oubre. Anything they get from Wiggins is simply gravy. Oh, and they seem to be getting more from Wiggins than we were getting.
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Lipoli390
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by Lipoli390 »

Here's the article:

Let's start by dispelling a growing concern among the asset-tracking portion of the Warriors' fan base. The Timberwolves aren't losing too much for the Warriors' interest. Minnesota can finish with a bottom-three record this season and the Warriors still would have a better-than-50-percent chance of keeping the Wolves' 2021 top-three protected first-round pick.

Here are the exact numbers: If Minnesota finishes at the bottom of the NBA standings, there's a 59.9 percent chance the lottery delivers either the fourth or fifth pick, which would flip it over to the Warriors. If Minnesota finishes with the league's second-worst record, there's a 59.8 percent chance it's fourth, fifth or sixth. If it's the third-worst record, there's a 59.8 percent chance it's between fourth and seventh. So there's basically a 60 percent chance it conveys to the Warriors in all scenarios triggered by the Wolves finishing with one of the league's three worst records.

There's also the opposite possibility. It's conceivable Minnesota finishes out of the bottom three in the standings but hops into the top three of the draft, protecting the pick. That happened last August. Charlotte had the eighth-worst record but lottery-lucked into the third pick, using it on LaMelo Ball.

If the pick is in the top three and the Wolves get to keep it, this won't be an asset debacle for the Warriors. Minnesota will then instead owe its unprotected 2022 first-rounder, extending the window of a pick that'll remain prized in the trade market. So Warriors fans should root for every Minnesota loss. The team's front office and coaching staff have been.

Which delivers the franchise to the doorstep of maybe its two most important games this regular season. The Warriors and Wolves meet twice this week, Monday and Wednesday, both in Chase Center. Karl-Anthony Towns, who earlier this month announced he'd tested positive for COVID-19, won't play. Minnesota beat New Orleans on Saturday night but still has lost 11 of its last 13 and is sitting at 4-11 with a league-worst minus-8.7 point differential.

The Warriors are deep in the transitional phase of their regrowth. There's a strong internal desire to remain relevant this season and fight as far as possible into the playoffs, even without the injured Klay Thompson. But realism remains. The future looms larger than the present. The growth of James Wiseman, the fluctuating value of their draft assets and the healthy return of Thompson matter more than a slight tick up or down the current standings.

But games against the Wolves provide the rare opportunity to tangibly benefit or hurt both the future and present. Beat them twice, slightly boost the asset. Lose twice, puncture its value, particularly if there's a plan to shop the future draft choice near the March trade deadline.

Speaking of, this seems like a perfect time to rewind to last trade deadline. Hours before, the Warriors and Wolves connected on that D'Angelo Russell-for-Andrew Wiggins blockbuster. As the teams meet for the first time since, how is the entirety of that swap looking? There are three portions of the deal. Let's split up the dissection.

Part 1: Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans salary dump

This is the easiest to grade in retrospect because it was the simplest to grade at the time. To complete the deal, the Warriors attached Evans and Spellman, two projected non-rotation players who had an extra season left on their current deals.

This served two purposes for the Warriors. It ducked them under the luxury tax last season, which allowed them to avoid the more punitive repeater tax this season. That minor maneuver either saved Joe Lacob and the ownership group a whole bunch of money or limited the upcoming tax damage enough to make the Kelly Oubre Jr. addition more palatable. You think the tax bill is big now? Imagine if they were a repeater.

The non-financial part of the Spellman and Evans dump aided roster construction. Spellman and Evans weren't part of the Warriors' future plans. Hitching them to the Russell wagon freed up two important roster spots this season. The Wolves would later attach a second-round pick to them and send both to the Knicks. New York cut Evans before this season and Spellman earlier this month.

Advantage: Warriors

Part 2: The Russell-for-Wiggins swap

The Wolves were hot after Russell since 2019 free agency. That's known. He agreed to a max deal with the Warriors just before he boarded a helicopter with Minnesota's decision-makers. Their hearts were broken on the tarmac, but their eyes never wandered.

What's clear in retrospect: The Warriors are fortunate the Wolves wouldn't give up on their Russell dreams, very much motivated by Towns' friendship with the point guard he preferred. If Minnesota had changed direction, there weren't many other avenues for the Warriors to trade Russell -- and the three years, $90 million remaining on his contract -- for much value.

Wiggins has a near equal contract: Three years, $94.7 million remaining. Most neutral observers and opposing franchises seem to view them as about equal overpays, the decision on which one you'd want depending on what your current roster lacks more -- a skilled high-usage starting point guard with defensive deficiencies or a supplemental wing who can guard better but score a bit worse?
The choice for the Warriors was easy. Wiggins fits their current roster construction -- with or without Thompson -- better than Russell did next to Steph Curry. They were desperate for competent wing play after Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala's departures and Wiggins has given it to them.

Wiggins is their second-leading scorer, is shooting nearly 40 percent from 3 and is defending at a high level early this season, shouldering a bulk of the toughest nightly assignment, contesting more shots than nearly every NBA perimeter player and providing some surprising rim protection. He entered the weekend 13th in blocks, behind 12 centers. The Warriors calculated that Wiggins would fit them better on the court than Russell. They've been correct to this point.

Minnesota would argue the flip side for its roster. The situation with Wiggins had clearly grown stale. The Wolves wanted to pair Towns with a prime pick-and-roll partner. Russell is dynamic in the high-screen game. It's too early to judge how productive those two could be together offensively. Because of several health issues, Russell and Towns have only appeared in five total games together since the trade, winning two.

But this fact remains: The Wolves entered the weekend with a 119.5 defensive rating in Russell's 430 minutes. The only other 25-minute-plus-per-night player in the league with a worse defensive rating is Sacramento's Marvin Bagley III.

So it's fair to wonder, given that they went on to win the 2019 lottery and selected guard Anthony Edwards with the No. 1 pick, what would be a better guard-wing-big trio to build around: Russell, Edwards and Towns ... or LaMelo Ball, Wiggins and Towns?

Advantage: Warriors, at least early

Part 3: The draft-pick compensation

Minnesota dealt its 2021 first- and second-round picks in the deal. The Warriors have already used that second-rounder to help facilitate the Oubre trade with Oklahoma City. If the Warriors don't finish with a top-10 record this season -- and the early expectation is they won't -- they'll protect the first-rounder they owe the Thunder and instead will send Minnesota's second-rounder.

So that's already some beneficial early use of an acquired asset. But the grand prize of this entire package -- the piece that 28 other franchises would covet most among the players and picks that changed homes in this trade -- still sits in the Warriors' back pocket. That top-three protected 2021 first-round pick grows in value every time the Wolves lose or another one of these potential 2021 lottery-level talents has a huge night.

Minnesota did well to get that top-three protection. That's probably the lone criticism of the Warriors in the reassessment of this trade. Is there any way they could've played hardball and removed all protections? Imagine the ability to dangle this pick on the trade market with the dream of Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham attached to it.

But an overall win is a win. The Warriors made this deal presuming the Wolves would stink this season. Minnesota clearly believed differently. So far -- with a whole lot of season left and an eventual Towns return dropped into the equation -- it's tilted heavily in the Warriors' direction.

Advantage: Warriors
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Something has always bugged me about the Wolves pursuit of Russell... I get why he signed with the Warriors at the time. An extra $10M is $10M... and I understand why the Wolves wanted him for his talent.

But I don't understand why Wolves fell so hard for him after the clownshow of their initial pitch.

The guy knew he'd already agreed with the Warriors before the pitch. But he still went on the pitch. And he didn't tell the Wolves until AFTER all that.

Which is all fine. Hundred-million-dollar NBA players are different breed. But... BUT... why would the Wolves STILL be enamored with that type of guy as their foundation piece for the franchise especially with all the other smoke in his career?

"Hey, this guy was a flake and made us look foolish, but we're going to chase him even harder now..."


It's back to the Cult of Accountability thing I've been thinking about. Give an underperforming player (Wiggins) a max deal if he promises to play harder... and expect him to work harder despite getting paid for not working harder. Trade for a max guy (Russell) who just snubbed us and made us look like fools... because we think he'll suddenly become a franchise-saving player who puts the team first once he's here.
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Lipoli390
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by Lipoli390 »

Abe -

You've identified yet another inexplicable dimension to the dysfunction or just plain poor judgment displayed by Gersson. It would be bad enough if that clown show initial pitch had been an isolated anomalous incident. But DLO's character was already a question mark before that time. There was the incident with Nick Young. His first team, the Lakers, couldn't wait to get rid of him even though they used the 2nd pick in the draft to get him and got relatively little in return. The Nets clearly wanted to move on from him in favor or Kyrie Irving, LeVert and Dinwiddie even after DLO had his one and only all-star appearance a season earlier. He tried to get weed through airport security and, not surprisingly, was caught. I'm sure there are other things we don't know about.

Bottom line for me is that the DLO deal underscores Gersson's amateurishness. I suspect the Warriors signed DLO knowing they'd always be able to unload him to the Wolves, although I doubt they foresaw getting as good a deal as the one they got. Seriously, who in the League was banging on the Warriors door for a shot at getting Russell, who was playing for his 3rd team in four seasons after being the second pick in the draft, especially considering how poorly he played with the Warriors?

This DLO deal wasn't Gersson's first amateur hour. A year earlier he traded up for what he thought would be Darius Garland and ended up with Culver. Just before this season, he gave up assets for a backup PG, Ricky, at $17M per year for two years. I like Ricky and can see how he might help this team. But after giving up so much for a max salary PG, DLO, it seems weird to give up assets for another PG at $17M per year. Then of course, Gersson gave Juancho $7M a year for two years, adding a defensively challenged unproven PF to an already defensively challenged team. Seriously, is there another team out there poised to give Juancho that much?
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thedoper
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by thedoper »

Thanks for sharing Lip. The article is claiming Wiggins is better than Russell straight up. This is very interesting. Financial implications and draft picks aside how does everyone feel about this assertion? I know the hate for DLo is big right now, and I was one of the bigger Wiggins advocates on this board. But I'm not sure I rate Wiggins ahead of DLo. I'm happy that Wiggins is fitting into what Golden State is doing and I enjoy watching them as a team, I feel it is fairly obvious that Wiggins fits with them better than as a primary ball handling scorer here. I also still firmly believe there is more potential in a KAT DLo tandem than a Wiggins DLo tandem.

Maybe the real problem all along was the idea that we had to get rid of Wiggins so badly and quickly that we needed to give up a 1st to do it?
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Lipoli390
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by Lipoli390 »

thedoper wrote:Thanks for sharing Lip. The article is claiming Wiggins is better than Russell straight up. This is very interesting. Financial implications and draft picks aside how does everyone feel about this assertion? I know the hate for DLo is big right now, and I was one of the bigger Wiggins advocates on this board. But I'm not sure I rate Wiggins ahead of DLo. I'm happy that Wiggins is fitting into what Golden State is doing and I enjoy watching them as a team, I feel it is fairly obvious that Wiggins fits with them better than as a primary ball handling scorer here. I also still firmly believe there is more potential in a KAT DLo tandem than a Wiggins DLo tandem.

Maybe the real problem all along was the idea that we had to get rid of Wiggins so badly and quickly that we needed to give up a 1st to do it?


Doper - That's the one point in article I disagreed with. At the time of the deal, I thought DLO was a better player than Wiggins. And I was certainly ready to move on from Wiggins. My issue with the trade back then was three fold: (1) What we gave up in picks (and took on in salary) to consummate the deal; (2) DLO's poor fit as a defensively challenged PG being added to an already defensively challenged team and a ball-dominant shoot-first PG added to a team supposedly predicated on ball movement and built around what should be a ball-dominant big (KAT); and (3) the questions surrounding DLO reliability and contribution to winning basketball relative to his max salary and the highly questionable notion that he could be a second pillar on an eventually championship contender.

Did I think he was better than Wiggins at the time? Absolutely. Do I think a DLO-KAT tandem has a better chance of success than a Wiggins-KAT tandem? Yes. And I still do in spite of how well Wiggins has played so far this season with the Warriors. But I thought it was a bad deal and that DLO was the wrong guy for this team. Unfortunately, I'm even more convinced of that now.

You raise a really good point about the real problem. I think Rosas was obsessed with getting DLO and had tunnel vision, which clouded his judgment. I think the same thing happened when he traded up for Garland. But I think you're right that another factor was the rush to get rid of Wiggins. I know the fanbase, myself included, was impatient to see Wiggins move on. But as the top basketball executive for the Wolves, Gersson had to take a more patient, strategic approach. Wiggins' value wasn't going down by that point. If anything, his value was likely to increase over time if only based on the the fact that the term of his contract was getting shorter each year and would eventually become a valuable expiring contract.

If it was mainly about getting rid of Wiggins, then I'm sure there were other deals that wouldn't have required us to give up a future first round pick without full lottery protection. I suspect the Hornets would have swapped Batum and their 2020 2nd round pick for Wiggins. I would have done that deal.

We'll see how this thing goes. As I've noted in other posts, I haven't given up entirely on the DLO-KAT duo. I'm still open to the possibility that DLO surprises me in a positive way. He's certainly a talented shot-maker. But I'm not holding my breath. And more than anything, I'd love to have our two 2021 picks back.
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Lipoli390
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by Lipoli390 »

I just wanted to be clear that my issue with DLO is mainly the trade that brought him here, not DLO. I would have been happy if it had just been Wiggins and our 2nd round pick for DLO. I would not have been optimistic because I always thought DLO was a bad fit for this team and had too many questions surrounding him. But essentially swapping Wiggins for DLO while only giving up a 2nd round pick would have struck me as a worthwhile risk.

I also want to be clear that I don't blame DLO for the Wolves' poor showing so far this season.

First of all, DLO didn't force his way onto this team. In fact, he actually rejected the Wolves' offer a year ago in favor of signing with the Warriors. He was traded him and that's obviously on the the Wolves front office not DLO.

Secondly, DLO isn't responsible for the Wolves' roster construction that makes the team so problematic and DLO such a bad fit. I have no doubt the team and DLO would look better if the Wolves had acquired Randle with the assets they used to acquire Rubio. I suspect this team, and DLO, would look better if the Wolves had signed Bobby Portis instead of Juancho and had kept RHJ rather than leaving an open roster spot. I suspect the team and DLO would have looked better so far with a better head coach. Any one of those things in isolation would have helped the team and improved the perception of DLO. So while I don't like DLO's game and thought the deal that brought him here was terrible and amateurish, I absolutely will not blame DLO for how bad this team has been so far this season.
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thedoper
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by thedoper »

lipoli390 wrote:
thedoper wrote:Thanks for sharing Lip. The article is claiming Wiggins is better than Russell straight up. This is very interesting. Financial implications and draft picks aside how does everyone feel about this assertion? I know the hate for DLo is big right now, and I was one of the bigger Wiggins advocates on this board. But I'm not sure I rate Wiggins ahead of DLo. I'm happy that Wiggins is fitting into what Golden State is doing and I enjoy watching them as a team, I feel it is fairly obvious that Wiggins fits with them better than as a primary ball handling scorer here. I also still firmly believe there is more potential in a KAT DLo tandem than a Wiggins DLo tandem.

Maybe the real problem all along was the idea that we had to get rid of Wiggins so badly and quickly that we needed to give up a 1st to do it?


Doper - That's the one point in article I disagreed with. At the time of the deal, I thought DLO was a better player than Wiggins. And I was certainly ready to move on from Wiggins. My issue with the trade back then was three fold: (1) What we gave up in picks (and took on in salary) to consummate the deal; (2) DLO's poor fit as a defensively challenged PG being added to an already defensively challenged team and a ball-dominant shoot-first PG added to a team supposedly predicated on ball movement and built around what should be a ball-dominant big (KAT); and (3) the questions surrounding DLO reliability and contribution to winning basketball relative to his max salary and the highly questionable notion that he could be a second pillar on an eventually championship contender.

Did I think he was better than Wiggins at the time? Absolutely. Do I think a DLO-KAT tandem has a better chance of success than a Wiggins-KAT tandem? Yes. And I still do in spite of how well Wiggins has played so far this season with the Warriors. But I thought it was a bad deal and that DLO was the wrong guy for this team. Unfortunately, I'm even more convinced of that now.

You raise a really good point about the real problem. I think Rosas was obsessed with getting DLO and had tunnel vision, which clouded his judgment. I think the same thing happened when he traded up for Garland. But I think you're right that another factor was the rush to get rid of Wiggins. I know the fanbase, myself included, was impatient to see Wiggins move on. But as the top basketball executive for the Wolves, Gersson had to take a more patient, strategic approach. Wiggins' value wasn't going down by that point. If anything, his value was likely to increase over time if only based on the the fact that the term of his contract was getting shorter each year and would eventually become a valuable expiring contract.

If it was mainly about getting rid of Wiggins, then I'm sure there were other deals that wouldn't have required us to give up a future first round pick without full lottery protection. I suspect the Hornets would have swapped Batum and their 2020 2nd round pick for Wiggins. I would have done that deal.

We'll see how this thing goes. As I've noted in other posts, I haven't given up entirely on the DLO-KAT duo. I'm still open to the possibility that DLO surprises me in a positive way. He's certainly a talented shot-maker. But I'm not holding my breath. And more than anything, I'd love to have our two 2021 picks back.


I think you make a great point here. We're emotionally invested in this team as fans almost making it impossible for us to be rational about the decisions that need to happen for our benefit. Therefore we need a hyper-rational POBO who wont fall victim to mob mentality. Ultimately the last people Rosas should be trying to appease are the traumatized, victimized fans of this franchise who rightfully want blood after all this ineptitude. For instance I am with many of us who want Ryan fired, but will this actually benefit the future of the franchise at this point? What if that pissed KAT off more? Ive been so wrong about the many things Ive wanted in this franchise but ultimately I think this is because this level of losing makes it almost impossible to know what's right.

Now that the reality of us being horrible again has set in, losing that pick is going to hurt for sure.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

A couple of you guys alluded to it, but the original sin in this whole sordid affair is signing Wiggins to a max deal. No one involved in the DLO fiasco had anything to do with that other than our wonderful owner. It's amazing how one bad decision leads to an even worse decision (in hindsight). But that's how this team rolls.

So yeah, as of right now, the Warriors "won" the trade. The good news is they didn't exactly come up roses with the Oubre deal. He's been downright awful.
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TheFuture
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Re: The DLO Trade

Post by TheFuture »

Hated the Butler deal.

Hated the DLO deal.

Both trades set our team 3+ years back in the going on 20 year rebuild.

It is stupid to force things that do not need to happen, because your fanbase has mostly given up. The majority are not coming back to cheer until it is seen as real and sustainable competitiveness.
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