Minnesota Sports Forum

Camden wrote:Call me a homer, but I'm just not ready to part with LaVine any more than I am Wiggins. I know most of the argument in their favor is based on potential, and I can see how that could get annoying or have the broken record effect after time, but they've also shown some legitimate evidence that they can play in this league already at 20/21 years old, albeit for a 29-win team. I also think their games are very complimentary to one another in that Wiggins is a slasher and LaVine is a shot-maker. It's also not too often you can pair two of the most explosive athletes on one team together. The last duo that I can think of that was comparable in this regard was Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady 15+ years ago in Toronto, and they never really got a chance to thrive together.

Keep them together. Maybe we shit the bed by not cashing in their potential for proven production, but I wanna see this thing through. Because if they do continue to improve, and they come anywhere near their supposed ceilings... Look out.

We are all homers on this message board. But that doesn't rebut your opinion or negate your analysis. I agree with you completely that swapping Zach as part of a package for Butler would be a mistake.

I happen to believe Zach will end up becoming at least as good as Butler overall. But even if he doesn't, swapping him for Butler would still be a mistake for the following reasons:

1. As you pointed out, Zach and Wiggins have far more complimentary games than Butler and Wiggins.'

2. Zach is already a far better 3-point shooter that Butler. Zach had a 38.9% 3-point percentage on 3.9 attempts last season. He hit 43.7% of his threes on 5.4 attempts after the allstar break. In contrast, Butler hit only 31.2% of his threes on 3.1 attempts. His career average is 32.8%. For a 3-point starved team like the Wolves, this disparity from behind the arc is a very big deal.

3. Zach has already bonded with and developed great chemistry with our two best core young players, KAT and Wiggins. No telling how well Butler would develop chemistry with these guys.

4. At age 26, Butler has likely reached his peak. No telling how long he'll plateau at his current level. At age 20, there is no doubt that Zach will get better. Moreover, Zach will peak at roughly the same time as Wiggins and KAT. Having all three core players on the same trajectory, peaking at the same time, enhances the chances of a championship and a sustained run.

5. Butler's durability is problematic compared to Zach. Butler has played more than 67 games in only one of his five seasons. That means Butler typically misses 20% of the season. In contrast, Zach has played nearly every game in both of his NBA seasons. No matter how much better Butler is, he has no value when he's not on the court.

As for whether Zach will eventually become as good or better than Butler, I think there's a very good chance Zach becomes the overall better player.

Physically, Butler is about 20 pounds heavier than Zach. But Zach has about the same length, is faster, quicker laterally and significantly more athletic. And Zach will definitely add more muscle weight over the next 6 years before he reaches Butler's current age.

Offensively, I think it's instructive to compare Zach's 2nd year stats with Butler's stats earlier in his career. Comparing Zach's second season to Butler's in comparable minutes, Zach had more points (14 v. 8.6), more assists (3.1 v. 1.4), a similar FG% (45.2 v. 46.7), and a better 3-point percentage on significantly more attempts. Zach's 2nd year stats were actually better than Butler's 3rd year stats in all those categories even though Butler averaged substantially more minutes per game. Zach's stats compare even more favorably when you consider the fact that Butler had 3 years of college compared to Zach's 1 college season off the bench. When you combine Zach's comparatively superior offensive stats at similar stages with his "gym rat" work ethic, I think it's highly likely Zach will become an overall better offensive player than Butler.

Defensively, I suspect that Zach will never be as good as Butler. But I also suspect that gap will close significantly. I keep coming back to Flip telling me that he thought Zach had the potential to be a great defender. He pointed to Zach's lateral quickness measured at the combine, but he also mentioned the Wolves' own research that showed opponents shooting only 25% from the field in college while being guarded by Zach. Zach was already showing substantial defensive improvement last season. Given his work ethic and Thib's influence, I think it's likely Zach becomes a very good defender.

We have this great opportunity to have these young guys grow together and form the core of a championship contender for years. I'd hate to see our front office squander that opportunity with taking what I think would be a short-sighted risk.

I'll add something I think is worth mentioning when it comes to the health of Lavine.

When I was watching stuff about Lavine before that draft one thing that really struck me about Lavine and started to win me over was something specific about his athletic ability. Most guys when they go up for a dunk or get contact they have a few clips where they basically get wiped out or come down awkward especially since they can just get up. Not Lavine. It's like the guy is like a cat or something he always landed on his feet and never awkwardly it was pretty amazing. It's like he always has a parachute attached to him he comes down pretty lightly. I think that's transferred over to the NBA for Zach. He just never seems to fall or come down awkwardly. That's a big deal and very unique. When I realized he has that special athletic ability and he could actually shoot at that I was nearly sold on him. I realized later the guy could do more than dribble his way out of a paper bag so that was a nice realization. The guy is way beyond what I would have expected him to be at this point when we drafted him in pretty much every phase of the game.

The reality is Lavine has the possible outcome of being a good or even great shooter that's also an elite athlete that can handle the ball. Damn that's really special. On top of that he has plenty of physical ability to defend. To me he is about as close to untouchable as you can get except Towns obviously. He is basically the SG this team has been looking for to put next to Rubio since the day Rubio was drafted. We should keep him and sit back and watch the guy grow in to a really nice player.

With 3 of the top 15 players in the NBA on the roster, and a guy just starting to ramp up his improvement in Dieng and one of the league's top PGs in Rubio... I expect many titles in MN...

Even Miami had to throw out Joel Anthony or Mario Chalmers sometimes. Harrison Barnes holds GSW back. But the Wolves starting 5 is set at every spot with each player reaching their ultimate potential. This makes me happy.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:With 3 of the top 15 players in the NBA on the roster, and a guy just starting to ramp up his improvement in Dieng and one of the league's top PGs in Rubio... I expect many titles in MN...

Even Miami had to throw out Joel Anthony or Mario Chalmers sometimes. Harrison Barnes holds GSW back. But the Wolves starting 5 is set at every spot with each player reaching their ultimate potential. This makes me happy.

Oh Abe, let the kids dream a little bit! There will be plenty of time for disappointment and disillusionment in January. But this is summer, the apex of the Wolves' fan existence!

Abe -- I've decided you weren't being sarcastic. :). And I assume by "3 of the top 15 players in the NBA" you meant Wiggins, KAT and Butler.

I looked back at all the other posts and couldn't find anyone saying the Wolves are set at every position and that each player will definitely reach their potential.

What I saw in posts (including mine) opposed to trading Wiggins or LaVine for Butler was the view that the Wolves will be better served long term by keeping these two guys rather than trading them for a player who doesn't shoot well from behind the arc, will turn 27 before next season and will likely miss at least 20% of the season. Yes, that view is based in large part on the potential of Zach and Andrew, but not on some pollanish certainty about how good their become. It's a risk-reward analysis.

There's certainly the risk that Wiggins and/or LaVine won't reach their potential. But there's a great reward if they do. Importantly their age along with their play and improvement to date suggest they have a good chance of at least coming close to reaching their potential. Further, there is great benefit in having our two wings peak at the same time. Butler is a very good player who should provide and immediate upgrade. But there are risks associated with him as well, namely: (1) Butler's durability, (2) Butler's age, which potentially puts his peak years out of sync with the other two core players, (3) Butler's potential impact on team chemistry compared to the guy we give up to get him.

Lip...

You wrote "I think there's a very good chance Zach becomes the overall better player." comparing LaVine to Butler. So if Butler is a top 15 or top 20 or top 25 player... and LaVine is considered the 3rd best Wolves prospect... that would give the team 3 of the top 15 - 25 guys in the league. Anything but championships from that group should be a disappointment.

This board (in general) also views Rubio and Dieng (and others) much higher than elsewhere. There are too many references to share. It's everywhere. We're fans of the team, of course we want to believe.

[Note: I still don't understand the "27 is old, except for Dieng" narrative. But it is what it is, I guess.]

AbeVigodaLive wrote:With 3 of the top 15 players in the NBA on the roster, and a guy just starting to ramp up his improvement in Dieng and one of the league's top PGs in Rubio... I expect many titles in MN...

Even Miami had to throw out Joel Anthony or Mario Chalmers sometimes. Harrison Barnes holds GSW back. But the Wolves starting 5 is set at every spot with each player reaching their ultimate potential. This makes me happy.

Abe I just want you to know I really appreciated this post not only for the reality and insight it brought (on both sides of the talent coin) and the amusement I found in it.

Just for the record, I don't think Abe's post brought any insight. I saw only the sarcastic and exaggerated venting of a bitter old man. :)

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Lip...

You wrote "I think there's a very good chance Zach becomes the overall better player." comparing LaVine to Butler. So if Butler is a top 15 or top 20 or top 25 player... and LaVine is considered the 3rd best Wolves prospect... that would give the team 3 of the top 15 - 25 guys in the league. Anything but championships from that group should be a disappointment.

This board (in general) also views Rubio and Dieng (and others) much higher than elsewhere. There are too many references to share. It's everywhere. We're fans of the team, of course we want to believe.

[Note: I still don't understand the "27 is old, except for Dieng" narrative. But it is what it is, I guess.]

I said the very likely the better overall OFFENSIVE player. And even that doesn't express certainty. Also I, like many others, offered a number of other reasons for not wanting to trade Wiggins or LaVine for Butler.

You can disagree, but your exaggeration and sarcasm are a bit annoying.

lipoli390 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Lip...

You wrote "I think there's a very good chance Zach becomes the overall better player." comparing LaVine to Butler. So if Butler is a top 15 or top 20 or top 25 player... and LaVine is considered the 3rd best Wolves prospect... that would give the team 3 of the top 15 - 25 guys in the league. Anything but championships from that group should be a disappointment.

This board (in general) also views Rubio and Dieng (and others) much higher than elsewhere. There are too many references to share. It's everywhere. We're fans of the team, of course we want to believe.

[Note: I still don't understand the "27 is old, except for Dieng" narrative. But it is what it is, I guess.]

I said the very likely the better overall OFFENSIVE player. And even that doesn't express certainty. Also I, like many others, offered a number of other reasons for not wanting to trade Wiggins or LaVine for Butler.

You can disagree, but your exaggeration and sarcasm are a bit annoying.

You almost have to try hard to annoy Lip or elicit this type of reaction from him. He's one guy that sees good intent in almost every post made.