Tank-O-Meter...2015 edition

[Coolbreeze44]

Just want to compliment the posters contributing here. This has been a great discussion with good takes from just about everybody.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Since this is a Tanking thread, I feel we need to get back on topic.

ESPN is giving us the tanking Lakers tonight. I know ESPN doesn't care because, you know, they're still the Lakers.

Hey, Wes Johnson and Wayne Ellington...it's Showtime 2015!

Here are words that haven't come out of my mouth since 1958...Come on. Lakers!

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

It's either the Lakers or LeBron. As someone who lives in St Louis it gets old watching Lebron and the Lakers all the time.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Since this is a Tanking thread, I feel we need to get back on topic.

ESPN is giving us the tanking Lakers tonight. I know ESPN doesn't care because, you know, they're still the Lakers.

Hey, Wes Johnson and Wayne Ellington...it's Showtime 2015!

Here are words that haven't come out of my mouth since 1958...Come on. Lakers!

Didn't know they had Ellington now. Wow, he's had quite the journey so far.

Yep, I'll be cheering for Guy Smiley and the Lakers too.

[MikkeMan]

Yup, good examples Mikkeman. However, the exceptions far outweigh the norm. Here are some other 19-year old rookie numbers:

Luol Deng - 7.0 per 36 as a rookie, 6.3 for his career
Thad Young - 7.2, 6.5
Carmelo - 6.0, 6.5
Bradley Beal - 4.4, 4.1
Marvin Williams - 7.1, 6.3
Trevor Ariza - 6.3, 6.1
Martell Webster - 4.4, 4.7
Tracy McGrady - (you already cited those numbers)

In fact, like McGrady, a number of these guys did some of their best work on the boards as rookies and then tailed off over time.

For Wiggins, it's not just an issue of weight. His hands are a bit shaky, as I've seen the ball squirt out of his mitts on numerous occasions. I'm not sure that's fixable.

Yes, there are numerous examples about wings that won't have improved for their rebounding numbers after rookie season but there is at least couple of reasons why I tend to believe that Wiggins will belong to rare group of wings that will improve his rebounding.

- Position matters. Both LeBron and Durant played major minutes as shooting guard in their rookie year. After that they have been mainly small forward and even some minutes as power forward. I think it is not surprise that they improved mostly rebounding between 1st and 2nd season when they moved from shooting guard to small forward. Wiggins has played both positions as a rookie but I believe he will be playing mainly small forward when he gets more strength, so his rebounding should probably increase already just because of position. That was probably also one reason why McGrady's rebounding numbers drop. He moved from small forward to shooting guard when his handle improved.

- Size matters. I think it is much more probable that skinny rookie that has frame which is capable to add more mass will increase his rebounding numbers than a rookie who already is physically ready for NBA. Both LeBron and Durant have added some weight after their rookie year and it has helped them to get better position to grab rebounds. Most of 19 year old guys that you listed who didn't improve rebounding had already body that was ready for NBA. So they were not able to benefit so much by gaining strength. Other examples about skinny rookies that improved their rebounding later are Garnett and Odom. Even little older rookies like Pippen and Grant Hill improved their rebounding when they got stronger. (their career averages won't differ much from rookie year numbers but it is mainly because injuries and really long careers and low numbers when they were older. But both had much better rebounding numbers when they had their best years.) So if Wiggins will be able to gain 20 pounds more muscles, I think it will be quite probable that his rebounding will also improve.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Really ugly game last night. But at least we don't have to worry about passing Denver anymore...the Wolves tanker and Nuggets anti-tanker is a 2-game swing that essentially ensures the Wolves will not catch the Nuggets. Philly and the Lakers almost won their games, which would have been favorable for the Wolves' chances of improving on their forecasted 4 spot...good to see both teams playing hard with no evidence of tanking.

But on the negative side, Orlando tanked a winnable game at home against Phoenix, and is now the team we have yo worry about passing. Although is the Wolves play like they did last night, that is not a concern either. Here are the updated win projections after a night of movement:

Knicks-guaranteed to finish last
Philly 19
Lakers 20
Wolves 21
Magic 24
Nuggets 27

So, as things stand right now, the Wolves have a much better chance of moving up in the lottery than moving down. The TOM projects five consecutive losses coming up next for the Wolves.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Philly lost a winnable game to Utah last night to move three games behind the Wolves in projected wins, and fortunately Orlando held on to beat Sac-town to keep the same 3-game gap on the other side The real story, though, is the Lakers. They are playing hard and teasing us by being in every game. Last night they led in Memphis most of the night before falling in overtime. They are currently only one win behind the Wolves in the battle for the third spot, and looking ahead I may have forecast a loss against Utah at home that should be a win. There are still two Wolves/Lakers games remaining, and they may have big ping pong ball implications. Third pick is still a strong possibility!

Knicks
Sixers 18
Lakers 20
Wolves 21
Orlando 24

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

They show last night's attendance at over 15,000 for the Philly game. I know that number accounts for no-shows too, but c'mon. There's no way that's possible!

[Lipoli390]

I'm still projecting the Wolves finishing with 23 wins. So I see no reasonable chance of finishing in the 3 spot. I just hope Orlando wins 4 more.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm still projecting the Wolves finishing with 23 wins. So I see no reasonable chance of finishing in the 3 spot. I just hope Orlando wins 4 more.

You may be right on your 23 projection, Lip...Wolves moved up to 22 wins in the TOM with last night's Portland upset. I still have Orlando at 24, as they should beat Boston, Denver, Detroit and the Knicks at home.
The TOM need to be recalibrated, and upsets galore are wreaking havoc. Almost no evidence of tanking, as both the Wolves and Philly upset elite teams last night...heck, even the Knicks almost won! Here are the latest projections:

Knicks
Philly 19
Lakers 20
Wolves 22
Orlando 24