The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[Lipoli390]

I need to understand the second apron restrictions more, and how Lore might perceive them. I know there are more severe restrictions on free agent signings, and I also read in phenom's post that draft picks would be pushed back to the end of the first round. I get that those seem to be punishing ramifications. But if Lore believes Rudy/KAT/Jaden/Ant/Conley/SloMo/Prince is a core he can win with, even if the remaining roster pieces are minimum salary players, is he too concerned about these restrictions? If we are a championship team, our draft pick is already at the end of the first round, so there's not much penalty there. And if he really believes in this core, don't you think he believes he can fill out the roster with minimum salary players and still challenge for a championship? The Miami experience this season with guys making less than $ 2 million like Strus, Vincent and Highsmith making big contributions to a championship run might only strengthen this belief.

That's why I still think TC's marching orders are more dependent on two main factors: 1) Does Lore think he can win with this core of 7 plus filler, and 2) is he both willing and able (given ARod is likely not in a financial position to participate much in a luxury tax) to pay a very punitive lux tax. If the answer to both of these is yes, I think we will see mostly the same roster return next season. But I see that as far less than a certainty.

Good analysis, FNG. My only caveat is that TC should NOT have any marching orders from Lore or any of the Wolves’ owners. He was hired because Lore and A-Rod apparently thought he was an elite basketball executive. You don’t open up the bank account and give an equity stake to lure guy you consider elite at his job and then give him marching orders on how to do his job - in this case what roster moves to make. It’s TC’s job (in consultation with his front office cohorts) to determine the roster based on all relevant factors, including the operational ramifications of exceeding the 2nd apron under the new CBA.

Lip, I agree that owners should not give marching orders to the GM about matters that are strictly basketball-related. But money matters are different I think. TC (or any GM) needs to know how high ownership is willing to go. But after that, ownership needs to step aside and let the GM do what he was hired to do. In this specific case, if Lore tells TC he will not approach the second apron under any circumstances, TC has to find a way to move one of our max players this summer.

I understand your point, FNG, and you’re absolutely right that a directive from Lore to stay below the second apron would compel TC to move one of our max players this summer (or next). However, my point is that it should not come down to whether Lore is willing to pay the steep luxury tax. The transactional constrains of exceeding the 2nd apron alone should compel TC to move KAT or Rudy this summer or next. Therefore, moving one or both should be a management decision related to the transactional constrains that flow from going above the second apron under the new CBA. In other words, it shouldn’t take a financially-motivated directive from ownership to cause management to move one or the other as a necessary step to building a sustainable championship contender around Ant and Jaden.

A team in the Wolves situation, over the cap and missing four of its seven 1st round picks the rest of this decade, can’t afford to lose the tools in the toolbox that the CBA would take away if the Wolves’ payroll exceeds the second apron. And if TC is serious about building around Ant and Jaden, keeping the 31-year old paint-bound Rudy at over $40 million per year strikes me as nonsensical. If the Wolves front office chooses that nonsense, then the only sensible thing to do would be trading KAT - not my first choice or a welcome choice, but the combination of TC’s blunder last summer and the new CBA leaves the organization with no other practical choice if they’re committed to building a championship contender around Ant and Jaden.

[FNG]

Good analysis, FNG. My only caveat is that TC should NOT have any marching orders from Lore or any of the Wolves’ owners. He was hired because Lore and A-Rod apparently thought he was an elite basketball executive. You don’t open up the bank account and give an equity stake to lure guy you consider elite at his job and then give him marching orders on how to do his job - in this case what roster moves to make. It’s TC’s job (in consultation with his front office cohorts) to determine the roster based on all relevant factors, including the operational ramifications of exceeding the 2nd apron under the new CBA.

Lip, I agree that owners should not give marching orders to the GM about matters that are strictly basketball-related. But money matters are different I think. TC (or any GM) needs to know how high ownership is willing to go. But after that, ownership needs to step aside and let the GM do what he was hired to do. In this specific case, if Lore tells TC he will not approach the second apron under any circumstances, TC has to find a way to move one of our max players this summer.

I understand your point, FNG, and you’re absolutely right that a directive from Lore to stay below the second apron would compel TC to move one of our max players this summer (or next). However, my point is that it should not come down to whether Lore is willing to pay the steep luxury tax. The transactional constrains of exceeding the 2nd apron alone should compel TC to move KAT or Rudy this summer or next. Therefore, moving one or both should be a management decision related to the transactional constrains that flow from going above the second apron under the new CBA. In other words, it shouldn’t take a financially-motivated directive from ownership to cause management to move one or the other as a necessary step to building a sustainable championship contender around Ant and Jaden.

A team in the Wolves situation, over the cap and missing four of its seven 1st round picks the rest of this decade, can’t afford to lose the tools in the toolbox that the CBA would take away if the Wolves’ payroll exceeds the second apron. And if TC is serious about building around Ant and Jaden, keeping the 31-year old paint-bound Rudy at over $40 million per year strikes me as nonsensical. If the Wolves front office chooses that nonsense, then the only sensible thing to do would be trading KAT - not my first choice or a welcome choice, but the combination of TC’s blunder last summer and the new CBA leaves the organization with no other practical choice if they’re committed to building a championship contender around Ant and Jaden.

Lip, of course I don't know what Lore and ARod are thinking, but my guess is that they are trying to build a championship contender around Rudy, KAT, Ant and Jaden...not just Ant and Jaden. And or course they would need some role players that could supplement these 4. And to your point, it will be difficult to avoid the second apron with those 4 taking up about $146 million in 2024-5 (with the second apron estimated to be about $180 million).

Difficult, but not impossible. First, as much as I love Naz Reid and NAW, there's no way we can keep them at the level they will command...they definitely have to be gone, if we are going to retain role players like SloMo and Prince (maybe another $15 million for them, which now has us at $161 million). That leaves only about $19 million for the remaining 9 players. The key would be to convince Mike Conley to return for the vet minimum, and this is not at all impossible. He has already moved his family because he wants to raise his kids here, and he is not going to command a bidding war at his age. So there will only be $16 million left for the remaining 8 players, and that means the bench will consist of guys like JMac, Moore, Minott, Garza, Knight, and our second round picks. The wild card though is whether Ant makes all-NBA or not, because the additional $11 million that gives him destroys this hypothetical. I'll be cheering against that!

I still see that as a championship team, although many here will disagree. I guess what really matters is whether ownership and TC see this as a championship team, because if not, either KAT or Rudy is gone this summer.

Feel free to take shots at my calculations...

[60WinTim]

I've been AWOL for a couple weeks - conquering Mount McKinley, I mean Denali, after surviving the Andes earlier this year...

I do not see the Wolves making any significant move this offseason to address the projected cap issues in 2024-25. They seem far more interested in establishing an identity and culture now, especially for the benefit of ANT. Connelly assumes the results of next season will provide the blueprint for what this team looks like going forward. And with that blueprint established, he can then make changes to address the salary cap next offseason, which will likely mean moving KAT and/or Rudy. How those parts fit next season will help determine who goes and who doesn't. But with the blueprint established, Connelly will know the type and style of player to replace whoever does get moved.

And more team success next season will likely improve the value and tradability for both Rudy and KAT. I have a large wager on the Wolves running it back next season. Naz will either be re-signed or replaced with a similar player. NAW will likely be re-signed. And a legit backup PG will be added to the roster.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, I agree that owners should not give marching orders to the GM about matters that are strictly basketball-related. But money matters are different I think. TC (or any GM) needs to know how high ownership is willing to go. But after that, ownership needs to step aside and let the GM do what he was hired to do. In this specific case, if Lore tells TC he will not approach the second apron under any circumstances, TC has to find a way to move one of our max players this summer.

I understand your point, FNG, and you’re absolutely right that a directive from Lore to stay below the second apron would compel TC to move one of our max players this summer (or next). However, my point is that it should not come down to whether Lore is willing to pay the steep luxury tax. The transactional constrains of exceeding the 2nd apron alone should compel TC to move KAT or Rudy this summer or next. Therefore, moving one or both should be a management decision related to the transactional constrains that flow from going above the second apron under the new CBA. In other words, it shouldn’t take a financially-motivated directive from ownership to cause management to move one or the other as a necessary step to building a sustainable championship contender around Ant and Jaden.

A team in the Wolves situation, over the cap and missing four of its seven 1st round picks the rest of this decade, can’t afford to lose the tools in the toolbox that the CBA would take away if the Wolves’ payroll exceeds the second apron. And if TC is serious about building around Ant and Jaden, keeping the 31-year old paint-bound Rudy at over $40 million per year strikes me as nonsensical. If the Wolves front office chooses that nonsense, then the only sensible thing to do would be trading KAT - not my first choice or a welcome choice, but the combination of TC’s blunder last summer and the new CBA leaves the organization with no other practical choice if they’re committed to building a championship contender around Ant and Jaden.

Lip, of course I don't know what Lore and ARod are thinking, but my guess is that they are trying to build a championship contender around Rudy, KAT, Ant and Jaden...not just Ant and Jaden. And or course they would need some role players that could supplement these 4. And to your point, it will be difficult to avoid the second apron with those 4 taking up about $146 million in 2024-5 (with the second apron estimated to be about $180 million).

Difficult, but not impossible. First, as much as I love Naz Reid and NAW, there's no way we can keep them at the level they will command...they definitely have to be gone, if we are going to retain role players like SloMo and Prince (maybe another $15 million for them, which now has us at $161 million). That leaves only about $19 million for the remaining 9 players. The key would be to convince Mike Conley to return for the vet minimum, and this is not at all impossible. He has already moved his family because he wants to raise his kids here, and he is not going to command a bidding war at his age. So there will only be $16 million left for the remaining 8 players, and that means the bench will consist of guys like JMac, Moore, Minott, Garza, Knight, and our second round picks. The wild card though is whether Ant makes all-NBA or not, because the additional $11 million that gives him destroys this hypothetical. I'll be cheering against that!

I still see that as a championship team, although many here will disagree. I guess what really matters is whether ownership and TC see this as a championship team, because if not, either KAT or Rudy is gone this summer.

Feel free to take shots at my calculations...

FNG - I’m not sure that Lore and A-Rod are running the show. They want a championship team, but they hired TC to make that happen and to decide how. I agree that a decision has been made to try to build a championship team around Ant, Jaden, KAT and Rudy; I simply think it’s Tim Connelly who made that decision. And I think it reflects poor judgment.

Regarding the payroll issue, I didn’t bother checking your math. I think they can probably stay under the 2nd apron in 2024 with Jaden, Ant, KAT and Rudy, but they’ll have to surround them almost entirely with minimum salary players. I don’t think that will be good enough to be a championship contender. This team will be well over both the cap and the luxury tax line even if they don’t retain Naz. Being over the luxury tax line, they won’t have the full MLE to spend even if they’re still below the second apron. They have limited draft picks and won’t be able to sign high quality free agents. They just can’t build a championship team around the Rudy-KAT core with those limited resources in my view. Letting a player with Reid’s talent go for nothing and losing his salary slot would be a big mistake.

But we’ll see because the view of the team that you attributed to Lore and A-Rod is actually TC’s view and that’s what matters. He made a really dumb move to get Rudy and he’s not going to change course. Which means he’ll take the franchise over the cliff and then move on like his predecessors.

[Monster]

I've been AWOL for a couple weeks - conquering Mount McKinley, I mean Denali, after surviving the Andes earlier this year...

I do not see the Wolves making any significant move this offseason to address the projected cap issues in 2024-25. They seem far more interested in establishing an identity and culture now, especially for the benefit of ANT. Connelly assumes the results of next season will provide the blueprint for what this team looks like going forward. And with that blueprint established, he can then make changes to address the salary cap next offseason, which will likely mean moving KAT and/or Rudy. How those parts fit next season will help determine who goes and who doesn't. But with the blueprint established, Connelly will know the type and style of player to replace whoever does get moved.

And more team success next season will likely improve the value and tradability for both Rudy and KAT. I have a large wager on the Wolves running it back next season. Naz will either be re-signed or replaced with a similar player. NAW will likely be re-signed. And a legit backup PG will be added to the roster.

Welcome back Tim! The Andes and Denali?! That’s really cool.

[kekgeek]

Finch today

Finch: “The looming cap, new CBA, is going to force some teams to make some moves in advance of all that. It could flush out a lot of player movement this summer.”

[WildWolf2813]

Shams just reported that New Orleans will wanna move up to get Scoot.


If the battle for Scoot becomes an arms race, we're not gonna stand a chance. New Orleans has more to offer than we do.

[kekgeek]

Shams just reported that New Orleans will wanna move up to get Scoot.


If the battle for Scoot becomes an arms race, we're not gonna stand a chance. New Orleans has more to offer than we do.

They have not to offer to the hornets. They do not have more to offer to the blazers in their current situation. (Assuming the hornets wouldn’t trade Ingram or Zion)

[WildWolf2813]

Shams just reported that New Orleans will wanna move up to get Scoot.


If the battle for Scoot becomes an arms race, we're not gonna stand a chance. New Orleans has more to offer than we do.

They have not to offer to the hornets. They do not have more to offer to the blazers in their current situation. (Assuming the hornets wouldn’t trade Ingram or Zion)

if they're that willing to go after Scoot, might as well talk to Charlotte. Why trade up to 3rd only for the possibility of Scoot not being there? Only Rosas would do that.

[Lipoli390]

I’m not sure anyone has done this yet, so I thought I’d list the CBA restrictions that make exceeding the second apron an untenable outcome for the Wolves. Here are the main restrictions that apply to any team over the second apron:

1. Can’t use MLE to sign free agents. This not only takes away the primary tool for a team over the cap to add talent, it actually makes it far more difficult to retain minimum-salary vets. Teams seeking to re-sign players on one-year vet minimum salaries can’t offer more than a 20% increase over their current salary. As a result, teams often use part of the MLE to retain good vets they originally signed for the vet minimum. Taking the MLE away, takes that valuable tool away.

2. Can’t sign players on the buy-out market. This takes away another valuable and commonly used tool for contending teams over the salary cap.

3. Can’t take more salary than giving in a trade. This severely constrains a team’s ability to make trades.

4. Can’t convey cash in trades

5. Can’t use existing exceptions from the previous season

6. Can’t trade future 1st-round picks more than 6 years into the future

7. Can’t generate trade exception when sign-and-trading own free agent to another team.

Bottom line is that exceeding the second apron imposes a hard cap. As a result, the only realistic way such a team can add talent is through the draft or by signing players to minimum contracts. The fact that the Wolves won’t have 1st-round picks in three of the next six years makes the Wolves situation particularly precarious. These hard-cap restrictions are in addition to the substantial luxury tax payments that increase under the new CBA and Lore simply doesn’t have the deep pockets like the owners of the Warriors, Clipper and Lakers.