Tank-O-Meter...2015 edition

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

(note to self: having the 4th worst record doesn't mean we automatically get the 4th pick. There is actually a better chance we get the 5th or 6th pick).

Q is technically correct, as shown by the probability chart in this Wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

You can see that having the 4th most ping balls is a very odd situation, because ending up with the 4th pick is the LEAST likely scenario of all possible outcomes, except for drafting 7th. And drafting 5th is by far the most likely option.
But you can also put a more positive spin on this chart, and say that it is more likely that the Wolves end up with a top 4 pick than it is that they draft 5th. Add up the probabilities of getting picks 1 through 4, and it adds up to 48%. So there is a 48% chance that the 4th seed gets a top 4 pick, a 35% chance they draft 5th, a 16% chance that they draft 6th, and only a 1% chance that everything goes to hell and they draft 7th.

Even if you are the Knicks and have the most ping pong balls, the single most likely outcome is that you will draft 4th! However, a glass half full Knicks fan would say the Knicks have a 47 % chance of getting a top two pick.

This is what makes the lottery system so interesting. In what is shaping up to be a 4-man draft, it also shows how much better it would be for us if the Lakers somehow slipped by us and we got the 3rd most ping pong balls.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

So with just about a month or so left in the season, we have 3 good teams in the East? Who knows what Chicago will do with their injuries? Toronto and Washington regressing, sooooooo 1 good team in the East?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Simply put, if we don't pick in the top 2, just draft Hezonja. Is it too much to ask to draft a potential two-way player with a good resume to boot?

WW, I don't disagree that Hezonja is an intriguing prospect, but have you really read up on this guy? His youtube videos make him look like he should be the top guy in this year's draft, so why doesn't he show up higher in the mocks. I think it's because GM's are scared to death to draft him...he has the potential to be a gigantic team cancer, and that's a scary possibility when you're investing in a lottery pick. I don't think we've see a guy with these types of issues since Demarcus Cousins, and Hezonja makes Cousins look like a candidate for Teammate of the Year. If I'm Flip, I'm staying far away from this guy.

[WildWolf2813]

Simply put, if we don't pick in the top 2, just draft Hezonja. Is it too much to ask to draft a potential two-way player with a good resume to boot?

WW, I don't disagree that Hezonja is an intriguing prospect, but have you really read up on this guy? His youtube videos make him look like he should be the top guy in this year's draft, so why doesn't he show up higher in the mocks. I think it's because GM's are scared to death to draft him...he has the potential to be a gigantic team cancer, and that's a scary possibility when you're investing in a lottery pick. I don't think we've see a guy with these types of issues since Demarcus Cousins, and Hezonja makes Cousins look like a candidate for Teammate of the Year. If I'm Flip, I'm staying far away from this guy.

You're not asking Hezonja to be a leader though. Unlike Cousins where he's asked to lead in Sacramento, we'd be asking Hezonja to be part of the fold. We have KG. We have Rubio. If we can't trust them to keep the locker room together no matter who is here, then they shouldn't lead either. If he plays well and we play well, we're not gonna care about what attitude he might have. Winning cures all. If we're not winning more games in the next couple of years even Rubio will turn into an asshole. The question we have to keep asking is whether whoever we bring in can help us win games or not. Hezonja can definitely do that based on the skill set that he has which we lack.

Flip better not operate as a scared GM because scared money don't make no money as the saying goes.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm issuing a tanking alert in Orlando. They aren't plahying their best player Nikola Vukevic with an "ankle" injury. I'm suspicious. Boston leads by 6 at the half in a game that has serious ping pong ball implications for the Wolves.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

False alarm in Orlando. They played well in the second half and won fairly easily. This was a big win for the Wolves' chances of staying behind Orlando for that 4th seed. Nice effort by the Magic without their best player.

Now, if only the Lakers could upset Dallas later tonight...

[Porckchop]

Well not having Cleveland in the mix gives a better shot too!

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

On the Hezonja front, there's also some caution about his defensive effort. Sometimes he's just standing around in limbo; not in position to play help or position to lock up his man. Call it an awareness issue, but I've seen him play good defense even if it was one of two games that I watched. Do it once you can usually do it again. Effort should be automatic.

I like him, but I don't love him. I'd rather have WCS if it came down to the two, honestly.

[whatdtcom [enjin:6685945]]

I've given up on the top 4-6 pick. IF we end up with the 4th worst record----we could still draft 7th (everyone behind us leapfrogs and lands in the top 3, in turn, pushing us down 3 spots).

That said, someone like Willie Cauely- Stein would be the ideal guy to me since he'll be in that area. Shot blocker present inside that somewhat resembles Chandler.

Let Rubio distribute. Wiggins, Martin, Neal score. Have Pek, Dieng, Garnett rebound. Bennett, Bazz, Payne and LaVine as backups that can mesh with those guys and we'll be fine. Hamilton, Brown and Chase-----also in but 2nd tier backups but who knows what their future is here.

I really think we'll end up with the 7 pick (without people passing us). Reminds me of the Musselmen years that we are winning NOW to secure a winning "mentality" but really fruitless since we're not anywhere near playoff position.....sigh.

"Coach Flip, we have GM Flip on line 3. Care to take this call?!??"

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Don't let the media tell you this a 2 player draft or a 4 player draft. It's all BS. There is no arbitrary cut-off and we can add someone really good in the 5-7 range.