Okay, I'll do it - Wolves at 76ers GDT

[AussieWolf3]

Personally I have serious concerns about how Rudy plays against better teams, or even the playoffs. Anecdotally the results have been mixed and I recall seeing interesting stats about his performances here, but I don't remember exactly what it is. I'm curious to look into it more myself, but it isn't all the controversial to suggest that he's a regular season player. Which has value, but it's a problem if he's a load bearing pillar.

Last post season they overcame this until they couldn't, and it was a similar story the year before.

Rudy Net Rating data in the Playoffs for the Wolves:

'22-23: -4.8 (4th best on team in a 1st round series in which we won just one game)
'23-24: +9.8 overall (best net rating on the team); -3.1 net rating in Conference Finals against Dallas (2nd best on team)
'24-25: +8.0 ovreall (2nd best on the team); +5.0 net rating in Conference Finals against OKC (best on team)

He's overall been great in the playoffs even if some of the box score stats were down.

There is a caveat of course, which is that Finch felt the need to sit him more against OKC, as he only averaged ~ 26MPG against them. That in essence protected his positive net rating because Finch felt that he couldn't play him in certain situations that were disadvantageous. But of course we got absolutely killed in those minutes he sat anyway! Naz had a -12.9 net rating against OKC and was a total mess.

Thanks for those numbers Q, that certainly paints a different picture, but the minutes played also tells a story.

The obvious retort to what the net rating numbers is, "why didn't Finch play him more, then?". This is especially curious when the counter punch has been Naz/Randle lineups for more "offense" which is a punch that just doesn't land as well as Finch seems to think.
Over the last two seasons, including playoffs, that 2 man pairing has a modest +2 net rating with 119 ORTG. Hardly a compelling or overwhelming offensive force imo and certainly not relative to Rudy's stalwart defense.

And this is kind of the thing with Rudy. Over his whole career the analytical data tells an elite story that doesn't always match the eye test --- except with fine inspection. You have to trust the process with him and even a very trusting coach like Finch can't help the impulse but to pull him. And I don't blame him, because in the moment things can really look like they're just not working even if in the aggregate the numbers say they do.

And to that point here are some really hyper specific numbers regarding Rudy. None of this is to say, "he's secretly bad" but they can tell us what he's bad at and when he's been bad at them.

First here's a few data metrics to know.

There's things like DPM (daily plus minus) and RAPM (regularized adjusted plus minus). Take or leave these metrics as you like, but I cite them because they're well tested all in one stats.

In his time as a wolves, not including this year, Rudy has extremely stable numbers in these stats from the RS to the PS

Ok then there is rTS% (relative true shooting, so basically the percentage your true shooting is at relative to league average)

Ok so in that time Rudy is:
RS: +9.8
PS: +5.2

Hmm a good drop there. Ok let's look at Rudy's play types - there is creation, spacing, transition and finishing. Unsurprisingly 80% on his offensive possessions are finishings plays --- 82% in the PS. His rTS on these plays is
RS: +4.8
PS: -0.7

A significant drop. His passTov% also goes from 16% to 18.2% in the postseason.

Last year specifically Rudy went from:
+5 rTS on finishing plays to -5.6
and 13% PassTov to 22.2%

Again, this isn't a gotcha! It's a hyper granular look at where he has failed in the postseason and why there are very specific constraints with Gobert as a player that could reasonably be considered to be too much

[AussieWolf3]

I disagree. He is 100% untouchable for this team. Who could you even get that would closely mimic his impact? You're not getting a Flagg, Wemby, Harper, Edgecombe, top 5 pick etc. for him. Moving him just wouldn't be worth it.

How absurd to suggest is impact is equatable to that level of player or prospect.

Let me say again, I like Rudy. I think he's a valuable player, but his limitations create unique constraints and moving in a different direction would make some sense if they chose to do it.

As I've said earlier, IHart is certain to be a FA this off-season. There have already been connections drawn between him and TC in the past and if you told me you could swap Rudy for him and draft picks or a high end rotation piece, I'm absolutely doing it.

I think that's unlikely, and I have no problem retaining Rudy, but I am concerned about what that means for the team moving forward

I don't think this team is even playoff caliber with a Rudy and Ihart swap.

And I think that's patently absurd

[FNG]

I like Hartenstein, and I disagree with Future's take that we would not be playoff caliber if we traded Rudy for him. But I don't think we would be nearly as good as we are now and that our ceiling would be a first round exit. Rudy is just too important to this team to consider moving him before his contract is over. I hope he is with us through the end of his contract, and even beyond that if he is still performing and willing to sign a bargain contract.

[AussieWolf3]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

[Q-is-here]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

Keep in mind that a guy like iHart is going to want similar money to what Rudy makes now and he plays even less! He averaged something like 22 MPG in OKC's run to the title last season and has never averaged 30+ MPG.

I guess my hope is that Rudy can actually play a role similar to iHart as a defensive pillar to start quarters but perhaps sits a lot more in close games at crunch time. OKC and NYK had the luxury of sliding Holmgren and KAT respectively to Center while Hartenstein was usually on the bench at the end of games. The problem is that Julius and Naz have proven time and again that they can't play Center defensively. Even KAT is better than those guys at it.

This is why I'd be tempted to just move on from both Julius and Naz this offseason. My theory is that having Jaden play more PF and Joan at C will help our defense more than whatever we lose on offense without Randle and Reid. Plus we need extra $ anyway to re-sign Ayo.

[FNG]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

Aussie, I'm actually in the camp that nobody on our roster is untouchable, even Ant. So if there was a deal involving Rudy that increased our chances of winning a chip, I would be on board. I don't see Hartenstein though as making us better.

Cool and I might be the only posters here who don't consider even Ant untouchable. But can anyone honestly say they wouldn't trade him for the likes of SGA, Luka, or Wemby? I know, not going to happen...but realistically, those are trades you would have to make. Hoops Hype came out with their player rankings last week...no surprise SGA, Luka and Jokic are 1,2,3. But Ant fans here would be devastated that they rank him 21st...even behind Ju at 19! I'm a homer too, so personally I would rank Ant ahead of several of the 20 HH has ahead of him...like Ju, KAT, Barnes and Sengun. But I continue to think we tend to significantly overvalue Ant here by calling him a top 10 player. He's not...yet.

[AussieWolf3]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

Aussie, I'm actually in the camp that nobody on our roster is untouchable, even Ant. So if there was a deal involving Rudy that increased our chances of winning a chip, I would be on board. I don't see Hartenstein though as making us better.

Cool and I might be the only posters here who don't consider even Ant untouchable. But can anyone honestly say they wouldn't trade him for the likes of SGA, Luka, or Wemby? I know, not going to happen...but realistically, those are trades you would have to make. Hoops Hype came out with their player rankings last week...no surprise SGA, Luka and Jokic are 1,2,3. But Ant fans here would be devastated that they rank him 21st...even behind Ju at 19! I'm a homer too, so personally I would rank Ant ahead of several of the 20 HH has ahead of him...like Ju, KAT, Barnes and Sengun. But I continue to think we tend to significantly overvalue Ant here by calling him a top 10 player. He's not...yet.

Hoops hype list isn't a player ranking it's a performance score that is massively affected by box score and playing time.

There several other metrics that tell a different story.

Darko has him 6th
He's been about 8th in Net Points all year, but has probably fallen lately
I haven't checked in a while but BBall index has had him top 10 for a long time.
The ringer has him 6th or 7th I believe

Do whatever you want with that information but I don't put a lot of stock in hoops hypes "ranking" or just a single metric for that matter

[AussieWolf3]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

Keep in mind that a guy like iHart is going to want similar money to what Rudy makes now and he plays even less! He averaged something like 22 MPG in OKC's run to the title last season and has never averaged 30+ MPG.

I guess my hope is that Rudy can actually play a role similar to iHart as a defensive pillar to start quarters but perhaps sits a lot more in close games at crunch time. OKC and NYK had the luxury of sliding Holmgren and KAT respectively to Center while Hartenstein was usually on the bench at the end of games. The problem is that Julius and Naz have proven time and again that they can't play Center defensively. Even KAT is better than those guys at it.

This is why I'd be tempted to just move on from both Julius and Naz this offseason. My theory is that having Jaden play more PF and Joan at C will help our defense more than whatever we lose on offense without Randle and Reid. Plus we need extra $ anyway to re-sign Ayo.

Yeah I noticed that with Hart as well.

To be fair he was only a therotical replacement, more of an archetype as opposed to me saying he's the one I want.

I very much like your idea for a plan with Rudy I think that's great.

I don't know what to do with Naz, and don't want to be too reactive to a prolonged slump. It wasn't that long ago that the evidence was pretty compelling be should start over Julius

[FNG]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

Aussie, I'm actually in the camp that nobody on our roster is untouchable, even Ant. So if there was a deal involving Rudy that increased our chances of winning a chip, I would be on board. I don't see Hartenstein though as making us better.

Cool and I might be the only posters here who don't consider even Ant untouchable. But can anyone honestly say they wouldn't trade him for the likes of SGA, Luka, or Wemby? I know, not going to happen...but realistically, those are trades you would have to make. Hoops Hype came out with their player rankings last week...no surprise SGA, Luka and Jokic are 1,2,3. But Ant fans here would be devastated that they rank him 21st...even behind Ju at 19! I'm a homer too, so personally I would rank Ant ahead of several of the 20 HH has ahead of him...like Ju, KAT, Barnes and Sengun. But I continue to think we tend to significantly overvalue Ant here by calling him a top 10 player. He's not...yet.

Hoops hype list isn't a player ranking it's a performance score that is massively affected by box score and playing time.

There several other metrics that tell a different story.

Darko has him 6th
He's been about 8th in Net Points all year, but has probably fallen lately
I haven't checked in a while but BBall index has had him top 10 for a long time.
The ringer has him 6th or 7th I believe

Do whatever you want with that information but I don't put a lot of stock in hoops hypes "ranking" or just a single metric for that matter

That's fair, Aussie...I also think HH has him underrated, and I don't think that is too much of a homer take. That said, I can easily find 10 players on that list that I have ahead of Ant as impactful 2-way players given how poorly he has shown up on defense this season.

[Q-is-here]

I think folks are failing to imagine that dropping Rudy does not mean that this team suddenly looks like the non Rudy minutes of this year full time.

The question is: if you replace Rudy with a better synergistic fit on offense, is that worth dropping a few points above replacement on defense?

Ultimately, I think I'd rather keep the bird in the hand but there are temptations for me to move on because this team so often fails to be more than the sum of it's parts, and I think Rudy bears some of the responsibility for that

Keep in mind that a guy like iHart is going to want similar money to what Rudy makes now and he plays even less! He averaged something like 22 MPG in OKC's run to the title last season and has never averaged 30+ MPG.

I guess my hope is that Rudy can actually play a role similar to iHart as a defensive pillar to start quarters but perhaps sits a lot more in close games at crunch time. OKC and NYK had the luxury of sliding Holmgren and KAT respectively to Center while Hartenstein was usually on the bench at the end of games. The problem is that Julius and Naz have proven time and again that they can't play Center defensively. Even KAT is better than those guys at it.

This is why I'd be tempted to just move on from both Julius and Naz this offseason. My theory is that having Jaden play more PF and Joan at C will help our defense more than whatever we lose on offense without Randle and Reid. Plus we need extra $ anyway to re-sign Ayo.

Yeah I noticed that with Hart as well.

To be fair he was only a therotical replacement, more of an archetype as opposed to me saying he's the one I want.

I very much like your idea for a plan with Rudy I think that's great.

I don't know what to do with Naz, and don't want to be too reactive to a prolonged slump. It wasn't that long ago that the evidence was pretty compelling be should start over Julius

I've gone back and forth with Naz too. He's always had really good numbers playing next to Rudy, which is what makes it tempting. But I keep going back to his playoff performances and how he fares in big games against really good defenses. Not good enough.