The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[FNG]

I don't know if anyone has put together a potential 2024-5 roster and salary structure, so I took a shot at it:

KAT 50
Rudy 44
Ant 36
Jaden 25
SloMo 10
NAW 7
Moore 3
Minott 2
JMac 3
Garza 2
23 second round pick 1
24 first round pick 2
24 second round pick 1
Conley 3
15th man 2

Total 191

I see this as both a winning roster and a reasonably plausible situation, and it fits (barely) under the $192 million apron threshold Tim has projected. Naz and Prince are gone, and 37 year old Conley accepts a vet minimum. This is the approach I would follow if I were TC, and also what I expect them to do. Two things would change my thoughts about this:

1) A complete failure of this roster next season, perhaps created by another year in which one of our stars misses more than half the season again.

2) Lore's unwillingness to be a lux tax repeater.

In the event of either one of these conditions, we will likely see either KAT or Rudy moved...most probably for a return that doesn't please the fan base. My hopes are high though, so I'm 100% on board with running it back next year. Whether this roster is good enough to challenge a healthy Denver team next year is debatable, but it seems to me that we played Denver as well as any other team in the league last season. Let's go!

[Lipoli390]

I don't know if anyone has put together a potential 2024-5 roster and salary structure, so I took a shot at it:

KAT 50
Rudy 44
Ant 36
Jaden 25
SloMo 10
NAW 7
Moore 3
Minott 2
JMac 3
Garza 2
23 second round pick 1
24 first round pick 2
24 second round pick 1
Conley 3
15th man 2

Total 191

I see this as both a winning roster and a reasonably plausible situation, and it fits (barely) under the $192 million apron threshold Tim has projected. Naz and Prince are gone, and 37 year old Conley accepts a vet minimum. This is the approach I would follow if I were TC, and also what I expect them to do. Two things would change my thoughts about this:

1) A complete failure of this roster next season, perhaps created by another year in which one of our stars misses more than half the season again.

2) Lore's unwillingness to be a lux tax repeater.

In the event of either one of these conditions, we will likely see either KAT or Rudy moved...most probably for a return that doesn't please the fan base. My hopes are high though, so I'm 100% on board with running it back next year. Whether this roster is good enough to challenge a healthy Denver team next year is debatable, but it seems to me that we played Denver as well as any other team in the league last season. Let's go!

All the projections I’ve seen have the second apron at $187-188 million, so I think Tim is mistaken. I also think Jaden will probably command a bit more than $25 million. Moreover, our 2024 first round pick could easily be closer to $3 million. Otherwise, your roster and the salaries seem realistic to me. But bottom line is that even your roster estimates will likely put us above the second apron, which will make us hard-capped and likely headed for the repeater penalty the following season.

If Ant and Jaden develop as we hope they will and if KAT and Rudy can flourish together, which I doubt they will, this could be a good roster. But the bench seems thin unless Minott and NAW improve substantially by then. Under your hypothetical, we’ve lost Naz and haven’t signed any quality free agents with the MLE or BAE. Meanwhile, all our competition in the West except Denver will likely have far more room under the second apron after bringing back their best six players from this season in which 7 of them finished with a better record than the Wolves. So those teams will be able to use their MLE and/or BAE to add talent the Wolves won’t be able to add.

If you believe in the Gobert/KAT pairing, then there’s an argument for running it back next season. But it’s important to acknowledge that running it back likely means exceeding the second apron the following season unless the Wolves trade KAT or Rudy next summer. I could be wrong, but I don’t think the Rudy/KAT pairing will get the Wolves into the NBA finals or even the Western Conference Finals. And I think clinging to the experiment will delay the development of a team build more appropriately around Ant and Jaden.

[Sundog]

Kyle is going to an unrestricted free agent after next year… after the year he had this season, it would seem unlikely the Wolves could re-sign him for $10 million after next season. And he’s the straw that stirs the drink - they have to re-sign him. That’s just one example of where this thing goes pear-shaped if the Wolves don’t create additional roster flexibility by making a trade.

I hate it when I agree with Lip!

[Porckchop]

Lip, it seems these days you turn every topic into an opportunity to blast on Gobert. Towns good, Gobert bad. Got it.

[60WinTim]

Kyle is going to an unrestricted free agent after next year… after the year he had this season, it would seem unlikely the Wolves could re-sign him for $10 million after next season. And he’s the straw that stirs the drink - they have to re-sign him. That’s just one example of where this thing goes pear-shaped if the Wolves don’t create additional roster flexibility by making a trade.

I hate it when I agree with Lip!

I certainly agree that when the rubber hits the road next offseason, some tough decision will need to be made. And that includes trading Rudy or KAT. The Wolves fell far shot of achieving their potential this past season. But if the front office feels strongly that they can do something special if given another chance, why make a change of direction now when you can do it next season with more information to make competent decisions.

Now, if you don't think this group can do something special next offseason, then by all means, have at it...

FNG - I don't think there is any way the Wolves would venture that far into the luxury tax, if at all.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, it seems these days you turn every topic into an opportunity to blast on Gobert. Towns good, Gobert bad. Got it.

Your timing with this post is pretty bad, Pork. My last post doesn’t blast Gobert at all. It simply makes the case for trading one of our bigs. And I generally don’t blast Rudy; I blast the trade that brought him here. My last post didn’t even criticize the trade.

[FNG]

Kyle is going to an unrestricted free agent after next year… after the year he had this season, it would seem unlikely the Wolves could re-sign him for $10 million after next season. And he’s the straw that stirs the drink - they have to re-sign him. That’s just one example of where this thing goes pear-shaped if the Wolves don’t create additional roster flexibility by making a trade.

I hate it when I agree with Lip!

I certainly agree that when the rubber hits the road next offseason, some tough decision will need to be made. And that includes trading Rudy or KAT. The Wolves fell far shot of achieving their potential this past season. But if the front office feels strongly that they can do something special if given another chance, why make a change of direction now when you can do it next season with more information to make competent decisions.

Now, if you don't think this group can do something special next offseason, then by all means, have at it...

FNG - I don't think there is any way the Wolves would venture that far into the luxury tax, if at all.

Could be, Tim...but we just don't know. Here's what we do know though. Marc Lore is not Glen Taylor. Glen is Mankato Milquetoast, Marc is Staten Island brash. I'm not going to diminish Glen's business success, but he seems to be much more cautious than Marc. And Lore's net worth is reputed to be much higher than Glen's (without even considering what ARod adds to the pot). Everything I read about Lore tells me he's not a guy who's comfortable not winning, so I think we are entering an era we aren't used to seeing in Minnesota. The era of the cautious businessman owner personified by the Pohlads and Taylor is over...we may now have much more of a riverboat gambler in Lore, and spending some of his immense net worth to win a championship might be on the table.

[Q-is-here]

Kyle is going to an unrestricted free agent after next year… after the year he had this season, it would seem unlikely the Wolves could re-sign him for $10 million after next season. And he’s the straw that stirs the drink - they have to re-sign him. That’s just one example of where this thing goes pear-shaped if the Wolves don’t create additional roster flexibility by making a trade.

I hate it when I agree with Lip!

I certainly agree that when the rubber hits the road next offseason, some tough decision will need to be made. And that includes trading Rudy or KAT. The Wolves fell far shot of achieving their potential this past season. But if the front office feels strongly that they can do something special if given another chance, why make a change of direction now when you can do it next season with more information to make competent decisions.

Now, if you don't think this group can do something special next offseason, then by all means, have at it...

FNG - I don't think there is any way the Wolves would venture that far into the luxury tax, if at all.

Could be, Tim...but we just don't know. Here's what we do know though. Marc Lore is not Glen Taylor. Glen is Mankato Milquetoast, Marc is Staten Island brash. I'm not going to diminish Glen's business success, but he seems to be much more cautious than Marc. And Lore's net worth is reputed to be much higher than Glen's (without even considering what ARod adds to the pot). Everything I read about Lore tells me he's not a guy who's comfortable not winning, so I think we are entering an era we aren't used to seeing in Minnesota. The era of the cautious businessman owner personified by the Pohlads and Taylor is over...we may now have much more of a riverboat gambler in Lore, and spending some of his immense net worth to win a championship might be on the table.

FNG, you really need to listen to that Dane-Jack Borman podcast from a few weeks ago where they went into Lore's finances and the unlikelihood of most teams going into that second apron.

Of course Lore can literally afford to go into the second apron, but there are lots of things people of all wealth levels can technically afford, but realize it would be stupid to spend the money on it. The second apron is so punitive that it would be foolish to cross that threshold unless you are talking about the chance of being a dynasty.

[60WinTim]

I certainly agree that when the rubber hits the road next offseason, some tough decision will need to be made. And that includes trading Rudy or KAT. The Wolves fell far shot of achieving their potential this past season. But if the front office feels strongly that they can do something special if given another chance, why make a change of direction now when you can do it next season with more information to make competent decisions.

Now, if you don't think this group can do something special next offseason, then by all means, have at it...

FNG - I don't think there is any way the Wolves would venture that far into the luxury tax, if at all.

Could be, Tim...but we just don't know. Here's what we do know though. Marc Lore is not Glen Taylor. Glen is Mankato Milquetoast, Marc is Staten Island brash. I'm not going to diminish Glen's business success, but he seems to be much more cautious than Marc. And Lore's net worth is reputed to be much higher than Glen's (without even considering what ARod adds to the pot). Everything I read about Lore tells me he's not a guy who's comfortable not winning, so I think we are entering an era we aren't used to seeing in Minnesota. The era of the cautious businessman owner personified by the Pohlads and Taylor is over...we may now have much more of a riverboat gambler in Lore, and spending some of his immense net worth to win a championship might be on the table.

FNG, you really need to listen to that Dane-Jack Borman podcast from a few weeks ago where they went into Lore's finances and the unlikelihood of most teams going into that second apron.

Of course Lore can literally afford to go into the second apron, but there are lots of things people of all wealth levels can technically afford, but realize it would be stupid to spend the money on it. The second apron is so punitive that it would be foolish to cross that threshold unless you are talking about the chance of being a dynasty.

I don't think FNG was suggesting an excursion into the 2nd apron... It is more about whether Lore would venture into the luxury tax, and how far (but still below the 2nd apron). The fact they traded for Gobert in the first place suggests a willingness to venture into the luxury tax for a year. Their moves THIS offseason will give us a glue as to whether the 2-big tandem has a chance to stick around through the 2024-25 season...

[Lipoli390]

I certainly agree that when the rubber hits the road next offseason, some tough decision will need to be made. And that includes trading Rudy or KAT. The Wolves fell far shot of achieving their potential this past season. But if the front office feels strongly that they can do something special if given another chance, why make a change of direction now when you can do it next season with more information to make competent decisions.

Now, if you don't think this group can do something special next offseason, then by all means, have at it...

FNG - I don't think there is any way the Wolves would venture that far into the luxury tax, if at all.

Could be, Tim...but we just don't know. Here's what we do know though. Marc Lore is not Glen Taylor. Glen is Mankato Milquetoast, Marc is Staten Island brash. I'm not going to diminish Glen's business success, but he seems to be much more cautious than Marc. And Lore's net worth is reputed to be much higher than Glen's (without even considering what ARod adds to the pot). Everything I read about Lore tells me he's not a guy who's comfortable not winning, so I think we are entering an era we aren't used to seeing in Minnesota. The era of the cautious businessman owner personified by the Pohlads and Taylor is over...we may now have much more of a riverboat gambler in Lore, and spending some of his immense net worth to win a championship might be on the table.

FNG, you really need to listen to that Dane-Jack Borman podcast from a few weeks ago where they went into Lore's finances and the unlikelihood of most teams going into that second apron.

Of course Lore can literally afford to go into the second apron, but there are lots of things people of all wealth levels can technically afford, but realize it would be stupid to spend the money on it. The second apron is so punitive that it would be foolish to cross that threshold unless you are talking about the chance of being a dynasty.

That’s right, Q. The Wolves will NOT (and should not) exceed the second second apron. And it’s highly unlikely they can stay below the second apron if they keep both bigs beyond next season.