18 games left- let's go on the record

[FNG]

We're down to the final 1/5 of the season, and there is still an incredibly wide range of potential outcomes for our Wolves. If the season ended today, we would be all alone in 8th place, and would be getting ready to travel to Dallas for the 7/8 play in game (a loss in that game would still give us another chance at the 8th seed by beating the winner of the 9/10 game). But we are also only 2 games out of 4th place and home court advantage in the first round, 1 game out of 5th and 6th and ready to go on the road, 1/2 game out of 7th where we would host a play in game, 1/2 game out of 9th where we would have to win 2 games to reach the playoffs, and just 1 1/2 games away from missing the playoffs altogether. I've never seen a finish like this. Where do you think the Wolves are going to finish? Vote in the poll and cop to your vote in the thread, so we can either rip you or praise you later! Weigh in, and show your work (i.e. assumptions about KAT, etc.)

[FNG]

I disclosed in the playoffs thread that my spreadsheet has the Wolves at 41 games and 10th place. But I probably haven't punished the Lakers (with LeBron out) and Pelicans (struggling without Zion) enough. So I have KAT returning sometime in the next 10 days, and the Wolves finishing 8th and on the road for the play in tournament.

[Phenom]

I voted for 5th or 6th but feel 6th or 7th is most likely. I think we pass at least one of the Clippers or Mavericks.

[Jester1534]

I voted for 5th or 6th but feel 6th or 7th is most likely. I think we pass at least one of the Clippers or Mavericks.

I voted 7th I think the Mavs are due for implosion. Kidd is starting complain about Luka Antics. Kyrie gonna Kyrie. They're 3-4 since brining him in. I think they're a week of bad play away from imploding. Sixers/Suns/Utah is there next three.

[Tactical unit]

I went 5 or 6th place with renewed optimism after saying this team was more a play in team than a playoff team all year. My optimism derives from Finch being honest and acknowledging ANT is playing too much hero ball. I think this will be somewhat rectified and my optimism comes from traffic cone defense DLO gone. I also predict pedestrian defense J. Nowell will largely lose minutes to the likes of NAW, Rivers, & J-Mac. Better defense, playing inspired, and finding rotations that mesh well with the new additions will lead to a strong finish. I also think there is potential let down for some of the other teams in the mix for the 5th & 6th seed.

Lets Go Wolves!

[Carlos Danger]

Boy, that's a pretty specific poll FNG. I'm predicting .500 all the way, so 9-9 and finishing 41-41. And predicting Towns will be part of at least half the remaining games.

As far as what place that is, I have no idea but assume it will be somewhere in the play in section. For the poll, I picked 8th place (on the road for a play in game). That's right where they are now and I don't see them improving themselves much with the remaining tough schedule.

At the end of the day, I don't care how they get into the playoffs, but they better get in there or this season will be a colossal failure.

[FNG]

Boy, that's a pretty specific poll FNG. I'm predicting .500 all the way, so 9-9 and finishing 41-41. And predicting Towns will be part of at least half the remaining games.

As far as what place that is, I have no idea but assume it will be somewhere in the play in section. For the poll, I picked 8th place (on the road for a play in game). That's right where they are now and I don't see them improving themselves much with the remaining tough schedule.

At the end of the day, I don't care how they get into the playoffs, but they better get in there or this season will be a colossal failure.

Ha yeah, way too specific Anthony! Tim and I are the two biggest end-of-season nerds here with our detailed spreadsheets tracking every team's prospects (much more difficult to do this season with so many teams in the running), so we have a leg up on the rest of you with respect to specificity. But your pick (41 games and 8th place) is exactly what my spreadsheet is currently saying, and that's even with a loss to the Lakers tomorrow (which I don't think is likely anymore with LeBron out)

I note that 3 out of 11 voters are (silently and anonymously) picking the Wolves to miss the playoffs. I will say that this is quite the doomsday prediction, with three teams (OkC, Utah and Portland) really struggling these days...I have all three teams at 38 wins, a full three games behind our Wolves.

We're gonna have playoff basketball again this season, boys (absent any horrible turn of events like an Ant injury)...let's hope KAT is back and productive, because this could be really fun if he is.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Boy, that's a pretty specific poll FNG. I'm predicting .500 all the way, so 9-9 and finishing 41-41. And predicting Towns will be part of at least half the remaining games.

As far as what place that is, I have no idea but assume it will be somewhere in the play in section. For the poll, I picked 8th place (on the road for a play in game). That's right where they are now and I don't see them improving themselves much with the remaining tough schedule.

At the end of the day, I don't care how they get into the playoffs, but they better get in there or this season will be a colossal failure.

Ha yeah, way too specific Anthony! Tim and I are the two biggest end-of-season nerds here with our detailed spreadsheets tracking every team's prospects (much more difficult to do this season with so many teams in the running), so we have a leg up on the rest of you with respect to specificity. But your pick (41 games and 8th place) is exactly what my spreadsheet is currently saying, and that's even with a loss to the Lakers tomorrow (which I don't think is likely anymore with LeBron out)

I note that 3 out of 11 voters are (silently and anonymously) picking the Wolves to miss the playoffs. I will say that this is quite the doomsday prediction, with three teams (OkC, Utah and Portland) really struggling these days...I have all three teams at 38 wins, a full three games behind our Wolves.

We're gonna have playoff basketball again this season, boys (absent any horrible turn of events like an Ant injury)...let's hope KAT is back and productive, because this could be really fun if he is.

To be fair... despite selling the farm, Utah is STILL playing .500 basketball. They're only .5 game back. Portland's fate probably depends on the upcoming 6-game road trip. OKC is sitting Shae Gilgeous-Alexander lately... (yet again)... even against teams it's battling for the play-in berth.

I think it's clear they don't care about making it.

Unless Lillard can carry the Blazers even more than he's already doing, it looks like four teams -- Minnesota, Utah, New Orleans and the Lakers -- for three spots. With the worst schedule of the bunch, I can see the Wolves missing out... or perhaps clinging to the 10th spot, barely.

Tomorrow's game will be big.

[FNG]

Boy, that's a pretty specific poll FNG. I'm predicting .500 all the way, so 9-9 and finishing 41-41. And predicting Towns will be part of at least half the remaining games.

As far as what place that is, I have no idea but assume it will be somewhere in the play in section. For the poll, I picked 8th place (on the road for a play in game). That's right where they are now and I don't see them improving themselves much with the remaining tough schedule.

At the end of the day, I don't care how they get into the playoffs, but they better get in there or this season will be a colossal failure.

Ha yeah, way too specific Anthony! Tim and I are the two biggest end-of-season nerds here with our detailed spreadsheets tracking every team's prospects (much more difficult to do this season with so many teams in the running), so we have a leg up on the rest of you with respect to specificity. But your pick (41 games and 8th place) is exactly what my spreadsheet is currently saying, and that's even with a loss to the Lakers tomorrow (which I don't think is likely anymore with LeBron out)

I note that 3 out of 11 voters are (silently and anonymously) picking the Wolves to miss the playoffs. I will say that this is quite the doomsday prediction, with three teams (OkC, Utah and Portland) really struggling these days...I have all three teams at 38 wins, a full three games behind our Wolves.

We're gonna have playoff basketball again this season, boys (absent any horrible turn of events like an Ant injury)...let's hope KAT is back and productive, because this could be really fun if he is.

To be fair... despite selling the farm, Utah is STILL playing .500 basketball. They're only .5 game back. Portland's fate probably depends on the upcoming 6-game road trip. OKC is sitting Shae Gilgeous-Alexander lately... (yet again)... even against teams it's battling for the play-in berth.

I think it's clear they don't care about making it.

Unless Lillard can carry the Blazers even more than he's already doing, it looks like four teams -- Minnesota, Utah, New Orleans and the Lakers -- for three spots. With the worst schedule of the bunch, I can see the Wolves missing out... or perhaps clinging to the 10th spot, barely.

Tomorrow's game will be big[/b

Huge. But my spreadsheet (which admittedly changes every day with so many contenders playing each other) still has the Wolves with a 3-game cushion over the projected 11th place team even if they lose to the Lakers.

You're right about Utah, although their home loss to the 15-47 Spurs (who were 5-26 on the road coming into that game) Tuesday didn't help their chances. I have them winning only 1 of their next 7 games (6 on the road followed by the Celtics at home), and that would torpedo any playoff hopes they have. However, my spreadsheet was prepared before OKC quit playing SGA, so Utah may do better in their back to backs there this week than I'm projecting.

I'm still thinking the only scenario that would keep us out of the play in would be a complete collapse by us combined with a huge overachievement by one of Utah/OKC/Portland. Both could happen though.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Boy, that's a pretty specific poll FNG. I'm predicting .500 all the way, so 9-9 and finishing 41-41. And predicting Towns will be part of at least half the remaining games.

As far as what place that is, I have no idea but assume it will be somewhere in the play in section. For the poll, I picked 8th place (on the road for a play in game). That's right where they are now and I don't see them improving themselves much with the remaining tough schedule.

At the end of the day, I don't care how they get into the playoffs, but they better get in there or this season will be a colossal failure.

Ha yeah, way too specific Anthony! Tim and I are the two biggest end-of-season nerds here with our detailed spreadsheets tracking every team's prospects (much more difficult to do this season with so many teams in the running), so we have a leg up on the rest of you with respect to specificity. But your pick (41 games and 8th place) is exactly what my spreadsheet is currently saying, and that's even with a loss to the Lakers tomorrow (which I don't think is likely anymore with LeBron out)

I note that 3 out of 11 voters are (silently and anonymously) picking the Wolves to miss the playoffs. I will say that this is quite the doomsday prediction, with three teams (OkC, Utah and Portland) really struggling these days...I have all three teams at 38 wins, a full three games behind our Wolves.

We're gonna have playoff basketball again this season, boys (absent any horrible turn of events like an Ant injury)...let's hope KAT is back and productive, because this could be really fun if he is.

To be fair... despite selling the farm, Utah is STILL playing .500 basketball. They're only .5 game back. Portland's fate probably depends on the upcoming 6-game road trip. OKC is sitting Shae Gilgeous-Alexander lately... (yet again)... even against teams it's battling for the play-in berth.

I think it's clear they don't care about making it.

Unless Lillard can carry the Blazers even more than he's already doing, it looks like four teams -- Minnesota, Utah, New Orleans and the Lakers -- for three spots. With the worst schedule of the bunch, I can see the Wolves missing out... or perhaps clinging to the 10th spot, barely.

Tomorrow's game will be big[/b

Huge. But my spreadsheet (which admittedly changes every day with so many contenders playing each other) still has the Wolves with a 3-game cushion over the projected 11th place team even if they lose to the Lakers.

You're right about Utah, although their home loss to the 15-47 Spurs (who were 5-26 on the road coming into that game) Tuesday didn't help their chances. I have them winning only 1 of their next 7 games (6 on the road followed by the Celtics at home), and that would torpedo any playoff hopes they have. However, my spreadsheet was prepared before OKC quit playing SGA, so Utah may do better in their back to backs there this week than I'm projecting.

I'm still thinking the only scenario that would keep us out of the play in would be a complete collapse by us combined with a huge overachievement by one of Utah/OKC/Portland. Both could happen though.

Despite recent results... Portland still has Dame Lillard. And a history with Lillard of finishing strong.

In 2021, they went 10 - 2 to close to finish 42 - 30, sneaked in as #6 seed to avoid play-in.
In 2020, they went 8 - 2 to close to finish 35 - 39, sneaked in as #8 seed.
In 2019, they went 14 - 3 to close.
In 2017, they went 12 - 4 to close to finish 41 - 41, sneaked in as #8 seed.
In 2016, they went 7 - 2 to close to finish 44 - 38.

In 2018 and 2022... playoff positioning wasn't on the line and Portland either rested Lillard a bit ('18) or he was out entirely ('22).

Note: Last season, Portland lost 14 of 15 to close. But there was no Dame Lillard... so Portland was in full tank mode. Lesson as always... historically, teams that WANT to WIN late in the season routinely win. Teams that WANT to LOSE routinely lose. We know that more than most as long-time Timberwolves fans.

Obviously, the Timberwolves don't want to tank. As a result, the Timberwolves might make the play-in by default. OKC is showing its hand... will Utah show its hand next?