3-point Shooting

[Q-is-here]

This comes up in a lot of game threads and I really do think the key to fully unlocking our offense is simply shooting the damn ball better. Now we may believe that we don't have the personnel to do it, but I'm not buying it. Sure, we aren't going to be Golden State from beyond the arc, but we can certainly do better.

Of our regular rotation players, only two guys are shooting better than their career averages: Prince and McDaniels. And neither take enough 3's to meaningfully move the needle much.

KAT, DLO, Nowell, McLaughlin, and Reid are all below their career average from 3. Ant is level with his career %.

So the question is if we keep improving ball movement and generating solid looks, is it not just a matter of time before they start going in more?

BTW, we are #2 in the NBA in 2-point shooting percentage and middle of the pack in FTAs and FT %, so we have been pretty efficient outside of the 3-ball.

[FNG]

Yes, I agree. But the most critical word in your post is the 5th word in your penultimate paragraph. And I'm not too optimistic given the DNA of our starting backcourt.

[Q-is-here]

Yes, I agree. But the most critical word in your post is the 5th word in your penultimate paragraph. And I'm not too optimistic given the DNA of our starting backcourt.

I had to do some thinking to figure that one out! Penultimate....what a great word!

Ant is Ant. I don't ever anticipate him being a guy that facilitates a motion/ball-movement offense. It's just not in his nature, his essence, his DNA. All we can ask is that he makes the obvious reads, like the simple swing pass to an open shooter or hitting Rudy if he's wide open in the paint (still a work in progress).

What that means though is that the others around him should be able to move the ball effectively. DLO is a good passer but he generally likes to operate out of screen and roll action where he can take his time to survey the floor and the myriad of options available to him.

Of all the player pairs that have played more than 100 minutes together on the Wolves this season, McLaughlin and Ant have the best net rating. Small sample size though, as those minutes have only been over 14 games together this season. So how about last season? Their player pairing was a +12 together over 46 games, which again was amongst the best parings on the team last year.

Now could this be because when they play together they are usually going against other team's bench units? Perhaps so. But methinks there is a trend here that may eventually lead to a starting job for Mr. Jordan McLaughlin. When that happens and under what circumstances, I can't predict.

[kekgeek]

Wolves 3pt rank by how open they are

Open looks
Wolves: 8th in the NBA in attempts
Wolves: 16th in percentage

Wide Open looks
Wolves; 19th in the NBA in attempts
Wolves: 26th in %

Closely Guarded
Wolves: 14th in the NBA in attempts
Wolves: 26th in %


Wolves are actually developing decent looks but not knocking them in. Hopefully that changes as the season goes on because it is not like the Wolves have a ton of terrible shooters.

[Monster]

Towns and Russell are high volume guys that are well under their typical shooting % from 3 and even if some other guys don't end up shooting well like Nowell I think it's likely she shoots over 30% from 3 for the season instead of under. At some point a guy like Forbes is gonna get some minutes and likely end up shooting nearly 40% from 3 from the season. Maybe McLaughlin never shoots the ball any better from 3 but he isn't a guy that we have to rely on in that area although it would sure help if he could hit 3's even at low 30% range. So far he has improved on his assist to TO ratio that he had last year which is kinda impressive.

[Lipoli390]

Towns and Russell are high volume guys that are well under their typical shooting % from 3 and even if some other guys don't end up shooting well like Nowell I think it's likely she shoots over 30% from 3 for the season instead of under. At some point a guy like Forbes is gonna get some minutes and likely end up shooting nearly 40% from 3 from the season. Maybe McLaughlin never shoots the ball any better from 3 but he isn't a guy that we have to rely on in that area although it would sure help if he could hit 3's even at low 30% range. So far he has improved on his assist to TO ratio that he had last year which is kinda impressive.

Good observations, Monster. KAT and DLO are both 4 percentage points below their career three-point averages. Have to believe they will both progress two their respective means this season.

[Monster]

Towns and Russell are high volume guys that are well under their typical shooting % from 3 and even if some other guys don't end up shooting well like Nowell I think it's likely she shoots over 30% from 3 for the season instead of under. At some point a guy like Forbes is gonna get some minutes and likely end up shooting nearly 40% from 3 from the season. Maybe McLaughlin never shoots the ball any better from 3 but he isn't a guy that we have to rely on in that area although it would sure help if he could hit 3's even at low 30% range. So far he has improved on his assist to TO ratio that he had last year which is kinda impressive.

Good observations, Monster. KAT and DLO are both 4 percentage points below their career three-point averages. Have to believe they will both progress two their respective means this season.

I'll add a couple more mostly minor observations. I apologize if some of these things have been covered on this board.

Towns is shooting more 3's this year than last season. I wouldn't be supervised if his volume even goes higher and he has shot the ball well from 3 at a higher volume before so that's attainable.

Russell is taking fewer shots in general and fewer 3's which is he ends up shooting 34% like last year that may be a good thing. I still expect him to end up shooting better from 3 this year than last year.

Nowell so far has ramped up his volume from 3. We still really don't know what kind of 3 point shooter he is percentage-wise. I think most will agree he is likely to to shoot over 30% from 3 though.

A more significant thing is the Wolves are shooting about 34 threes a game this year and 25th in percentage. Last year they finished shooting 41 threes a game and were 12th in percentage. I think most of us figured the Wolves volume of 3's would probably drop some with Beasley gone and Gobert playing a lot of minutes. Just to compare last year in November the Wolves shot over 42 threes a game and were 21st in percentage. It's worth remembering that when their offense really took off last year they were actually taking fewer shots overall.

It's been mentioned already but this season the Wolves are 2nd in 2 point FG percentage. Last year in November they were 20th. An encouraging sign on the other end is that they are 6th in opponent 2 point FG%.

This is all based on 17 games played for the Wolves which isn't a small sample size but not a huge one either. A stretch of a few games could really change things statistically one way or another still. It will be interesting to see where they go on both ends from here.

[Lipoli390]

Towns and Russell are high volume guys that are well under their typical shooting % from 3 and even if some other guys don't end up shooting well like Nowell I think it's likely she shoots over 30% from 3 for the season instead of under. At some point a guy like Forbes is gonna get some minutes and likely end up shooting nearly 40% from 3 from the season. Maybe McLaughlin never shoots the ball any better from 3 but he isn't a guy that we have to rely on in that area although it would sure help if he could hit 3's even at low 30% range. So far he has improved on his assist to TO ratio that he had last year which is kinda impressive.

Good observations, Monster. KAT and DLO are both 4 percentage points below their career three-point averages. Have to believe they will both progress two their respective means this season.

I'll add a couple more mostly minor observations. I apologize if some of these things have been covered on this board.

Towns is shooting more 3's this year than last season. I wouldn't be supervised if his volume even goes higher and he has shot the ball well from 3 at a higher volume before so that's attainable.

Russell is taking fewer shots in general and fewer 3's which is he ends up shooting 34% like last year that may be a good thing. I still expect him to end up shooting better from 3 this year than last year.

Nowell so far has ramped up his volume from 3. We still really don't know what kind of 3 point shooter he is percentage-wise. I think most will agree he is likely to to shoot over 30% from 3 though.

A more significant thing is the Wolves are shooting about 34 threes a game this year and 25th in percentage. Last year they finished shooting 41 threes a game and were 12th in percentage. I think most of us figured the Wolves volume of 3's would probably drop some with Beasley gone and Gobert playing a lot of minutes. Just to compare last year in November the Wolves shot over 42 threes a game and were 21st in percentage. It's worth remembering that when their offense really took off last year they were actually taking fewer shots overall.

It's been mentioned already but this season the Wolves are 2nd in 2 point FG percentage. Last year in November they were 20th. An encouraging sign on the other end is that they are 6th in opponent 2 point FG%.

This is all based on 17 games played for the Wolves which isn't a small sample size but not a huge one either. A stretch of a few games could really change things statistically one way or another still. It will be interesting to see where they go on both ends from here.

Again, some more good observations. These are all pieces that could come together and keep the Wolves on a winning track against better teams under more challenging circumstances going forward. I like that the Wolves are taking and making mid-range shots this season. The team's three-point shooting can't help but improve. Those things will help. But the team also has to continue to improve it's offensive ball movement. They have to play consistently hard and get the 50-50 balls they haven't been getting much so far this season. The shooting will improve. Ball movement, playing hard and getting to loose balls are matters of will. Put all those things together and this team can be very good going forward. They've already dug themselves out of the hole by putting together a four-game winning streak against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, we've seen some better ball movement on the offensive end and I think some better perimeter defense. It will be interesting to see what this team does going forward and i think these next 17 games will be telling.