Official Wolves 2022 Pre-Draft Thread

[Lipoli390]

We're two days away from the beginning of this year's NBA draft combine and only 5 weeks from this year's NBA draft. So I thought it was time to start a thread for some serious Wolves draft discussion. The Wolves have four picks in this year's draft: ## 19, 40, 49 and 51. So there's lots to talk about after going through last year's draft with no picks.

I'm going to touch on four things in this initial post: (1) my overall assessment of this year's draft as it relates to the Wolves; (2) my overall approach to making picks; (3) my main lesson from the 2020 draft; and (4) what I think the Wolves should do with their picks.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THIS YEAR'S DRAFT AS IT RELATES TO THE WOLVES

Up until a few weeks ago, I didn't think much of this year's draft pool. I still think it's someone unimpressive at the top. I'm not crazy about Jabari Smith, Banchero or Chet Homgren as the consensus top three. However, as I've looked more closely and given it a lot more thought, I've come to view this draft pool as strong overall throughout the first round and into the second round. In that sense, I see it as similar to the 2020 and 2019 drafts, which yielded a number of really good NBA players from the bottom of the lottery to the bottom of the first round - players like Tyler Herro, Brandon Clarke, Tyrese Maxey, Saddiq Bey, Jordan Pool, Desmond Bane and others.

Similarly, there are a lot of players projected to go in the bottom half of this year's first round and the top half of the 2nd round who could become terrific NBA players and possibly better than many who are currently projected to be drafted in the top 5. That makes the Wolves four picks, especially ##19 and 40 highly valuable.

OVERALL APPROACH TO MAKING PICKS

I base my picks or rankings primarily on four things: (1) written and video draft analysis available in the media; (2) player stats; (3) player physical attributes - e.g., size, strength, athleticism; (3) a player's mental attributes (i.e., mental toughness, competitiveness, etc.; and (4) the eye test from watching games, video highlights and video draft reviews.

Regarding player stats, I tend to give more weight to rebounding than any other stat because it tends to translate better than any other to the NBA and because it says a lot about the player's physical abilities, effort and instincts. Players who rebound well tend to have either good size or athleticism. They also tend to be those who play hard and have good instincts or "a nose for the ball." Rebounding isn't easy. You have to have the physical tools and desire to compete for the ball over and over again. I recall my frustration as Paul Millsap fell well down into the second round even though he was college basketball's best rebounder. It made no sense to me then and his career since then underscores the value of rebounding as a measure of a player's NBA potential. I also pay a lot of attention to steals (guards and wings) and blocked shots (PFs and Cs). Those stats, especially steals, tend to translate fairly well to the NBA and they also say a lot about a player's physical attributes, instincts and effort. Finally, when it comes to stats, I don't pay much attention to scoring averages. I focus instead on shooting efficiency and how often a player gets to the line. I don't focus too much on 3-point percentage because that doesn't seems to be a very predictive stat. For example, Okogie hit 38% of his threes in both of his two college seasons, which was better than Tyler Herro's college 3-point percentage. Curry's 3-point percentage has been better in the NBA than in college. I don't ignore 3-point percentage, but I don't give it as much weight as FG and TS percentages.

Regarding physical attributes, I'm well known for paying a lot of attention to wingspan and standing reach. I know I probably give too much emphasis to these measures, but as a guy with alligator arms, I can't help myself. :). I give some weight to height as a measure of a player's ability to see the floor, but that's the only value it has. Otherwise, it's all about how far your arms extend vertically and/or horizontally. As Kevin McHale once told a group of us, you don't block shots or intercept passes with your head. I also pay a lot of attention to vertical leap, sprint speed and lateral quickness as measured by the agility test. When it comes to vertical leap, I'm more interested in the no-step vertical because it tells us more about how quickly and how often a player can get high off the floor. There is also the obvious interplay between length and athleticism. The more you have one, the less you need the other. I remember Larry Bird talking about his length. He said if he were a couple inches shorter, he would have probably been an average player. And we all know about Kevin McHale's long arms. So while neither was particularly athletic, they both had terrific length that helped make them greats players. Sprint speed and lateral quickness stats have value to me, but I think they have limited predictive value. I think you can tell more from the eye test about a player's ability to stay with other players on defense or get by players on the offensive end. The mental part is harder to gauge since there are no combine measurements for mental toughness or competitiveness. But typically you know it when you see it. It can be learned or confirmed by talking to a player's past coaches and teammates.

Finally, we get to the eye test. This is obviously the most subjective, but it's also the most fun and probably the most telling. A player can lack great quickness, athleticism or size, but have great instincts and skills that allow him to defend effectively or get good dribble penetration. A guard or wing with a great "ball-on-a-string" handle and really good instincts can be more effective at breaking down defenses off the dribble and scoring at the rim than much quicker or more athletic players. Larry Bird comes to mind again as a good example. He wasn't athletic, but his brain's processing speed was off the charts, which made him better than far more athletically gifted players. He could anticipate things and see plays develop instantaneously before others could do the same.

MAIN LESSON FROM 2020 DRAFT

I was way off in my analysis of the 2020 draft. Edwards and Ball were clearly the most talented players in that draft. They were the consensus top two picks of the most respected basketball analysts. They had terrific physical profiles and stats. And their play was eye-popping as measured by the eye test. Yet, I didn't want the Wolves to draft them. Why? Because I was worried about their attitudes or motors. I read a few things that raised questions about their respective attitudes and I was worried about their mental makeups - worried that they weren't motivated or that they didn't really love the game. In short, I was worried they were going to be Andrew Wiggins.

When I look back on it, the questions about their attitudes or motors were few and far between and they weren't consistent with their production or what I saw watching them play. I guess I was suffering from PWTSD post Wiggins traumatic stress disorder. But it wasn't just Wiggins. It was the specter of Derrick Williams and smiling Wes Johnson. Williams and Johnson were immensely talented and productive in college. They should have at least become solid NBA players if not stars but they both couldn't even last in the League. I've heard from people in the Wolves organization that Williams was lazy and enjoyed the NBA lifestyle far more than the NBA game. So it was, in fact, his mental makeup that caused him to fail in spite of his considerable physical gifts. Smiling Wes was clearly just happy to sit and joke with teammates on the bench. So questions about a prospect's motor, motivation or love for the game are clearly important. But I think my lesson from 2020 is to avoid exaggerating those issues to the point where they distort my judgment.

Looking back, there was nothing to suggest that Edwards was another Wiggins. Just watching Edwards play in college you could see the fire and enthusiasm he had for the game and his competitive spirit. It was night and day in comparison to watching Wiggins float around dispassionately and disappear entirely from games in college. LeMello Ball didn't exhibit the same outward passion and fire on the court as Edwards, but he was too productive in multiple categories, including "do-shit" categories like rebounding and steals, to be credibly viewed as another Wiggins or Wes Johnson. So yes, motor and competitiveness matter. But it's important to keep those concerns in proper perspective and consider them in the broader context of draft reviews, stats and the eye test. As I look back, the concerns raised about the competitiveness or motor of Edwards and Ball were few and far between. Meanwhile, their stats and eye test painted a picture that contradicted those few blurbs of concern.

WHAT THE WOLVES SHOULD DO IN THIS YEAR'S DRAFT

My overall view is that the Wolves should be highly reluctant to trade their #19 pick. I also think they should be reluctant to trade their #40 pick. As I mentioned earlier, this looks like a very good, deep draft reminiscent of the 2019 and 2020 drafts. That means there will likely be some very talented prospects when the Wolves are on the clock at #19. Moreover, it's important for any NBA franchise, especially one like the Wolves in a smaller, less attractive free agent market, to continually replenish their young talent through the draft. That's especially important this year after having no picks in the 2021 draft. You can never have enough young talent in the NBA. Edwards looks like he'll become a star, but we still don't know for sure. I have high expectations for McDaniels, but he's far from establishing that he'll be more than a role player in the NBA. I like Nowell, JMac and Naz, but none of them look like budding all-stars and the jury's still out on how good they will be. There are injury risks, future salary issues and other things that come into play. That's a long way of saying the Wolves should focus on landing at least one highly talented player in this year's draft and developing that player. Right now, I see our #19 pick as the key to landing that player, but the Wolves could also trade down into the 20s or into the top five of the 2nd round. Bottom line is to have a pick in the first round or very high second round and use that pick to bring in a talented young player.

Regarding who the Wolves should pick, I think they should focus on drafting the best player available regardless of position or particular need. When I think of best player, it's a combination of upside and likelihood of eventually reaching that upside. I'll wait for a later post to pick my favorites for the Wolves, but right now I'm intrigued by a number of players who are projected to be drafted in the teens or 20s, including Dyson Daniels, Tari Eason, Kendall Brown, MarJon Beauchamp, Ochai Agbaji, Blake Wesley, EJ Liddell, Bryce McGowens, Leonard Miller, Mark Williams, Christian Koloko and Wendell Moore. I think we'd have to trade up a few slots to have a shot at Daniels or Eason (especially Daniels), but I think it would be worth considering.

Now that I've finished my treatise, I'll throw it open for discussion and speculation. :)

[WildWolf2813]

I'm all about rebounding.

Ideally, the Wolves should attempt to do 2 long term things with this:

add another big to at worst replace Naz, at best, start at the 4 long term.

or

draft D'Lo's replacement at PG.

At 19, I think both are possible. Jean Montero should absolutely be the guy we get, continue to develop and by year 2 at the latest should be the starting PG on this team.

Because Oscar Tshiebwe went back to school, I'm all for upside. Christian Koloko at 19 would offer that too. Think Zeke Nnaji (convenient that both went to Arizona). Pac-12 DPOY, 7'1''. Three year guy who has already proven he can add weight to his frame and improve. Good shot blocker.


I know some love to keep aiming for the fences and that's fine, but if this team is gonna have issues addressing needs in free agency, the draft is a good way to have those things in place without having to be at the mercy of these agents.

We can't fix every issue, but one of these two needs HAS to be addressed on draft night. Otherwise management is blowing a huge opportunity to show they can find talent.

[Monster]

Lip what a draft profile!

I think Alligators and the T-Rex get a bad rap. Sure they may have short arms but imagine the ability they would have in defending with a tail behind them! Of course getting through screens would be hard they would always be tailing the play...

I think one of the traumas I have when it comes to the draft is passing up so many shooters. Speaking of shooters 2 of the best shooters in the league have raptor arms Steph Curry and Bane. Maybe we should be considering that as a positive aspect if the player is a shooter? ;)

[KG4Ever]

I'm all about rebounding.

Ideally, the Wolves should attempt to do 2 long term things with this:

add another big to at worst replace Naz, at best, start at the 4 long term.

or

draft D'Lo's replacement at PG.

At 19, I think both are possible. Jean Montero should absolutely be the guy we get, continue to develop and by year 2 at the latest should be the starting PG on this team.

Because Oscar Tshiebwe went back to school, I'm all for upside. Christian Koloko at 19 would offer that too. Think Zeke Nnaji (convenient that both went to Arizona). Pac-12 DPOY, 7'1''. Three year guy who has already proven he can add weight to his frame and improve. Good shot blocker.


I know some love to keep aiming for the fences and that's fine, but if this team is gonna have issues addressing needs in free agency, the draft is a good way to have those things in place without having to be at the mercy of these agents.

We can't fix every issue, but one of these two needs HAS to be addressed on draft night. Otherwise management is blowing a huge opportunity to show they can find talent.

Like you, I was hoping Tshiembwe would stay in the draft and we'd grab him in the second round. I don't see any bigs that are likely to be available such as Duren, that I want to use pick 19 on, so I think I'd wait until round 2 for that. I think the big man depth is a little more shallow than it was in 2020, when Paul Reed lasted until pick 59 (while this year there are only 58 picks total). Perhaps, a decent big will fall to 40 and I'm still doing my due diligence so I haven't researched all the guys or come up with a favorite yet, but certainly guys like Kessler, Koloko, Lidell, Kamagate if they fall to 40 should be considered. If we don't pick a big at 19 or 40, I could see drafting someone like Leonardo Okeke with one of our later two picks and let him develop overseas (he's just 18) while we retain his rights. Here's a writeup on Okeke: https://www.nbadraftjunkies.com/leonardo-okeke. Another big I like that is projected to go late is Michael Foster.

[KG4Ever]

Good analysis Lip! If Dyson Daniels is still available at pick 12 or later, I would try to move up to get him. I'm certainly fine with trading some of our second rounders and/or a player like Bolmaro, Naz Reid or Nowell to get him. If Daniels is gone, I'm probably focusing on Eason and would consider trading up a few spots if it would only cost us one of our latter two second round picks. If we are unable to work out a reasonable deal to move up, I'm fine with picking the best player that falls to 19. If by luck, Daniels, Duren or Eason were to fall to 19, then we have our guy. I'm still kicking the tires on guys that are more likely to be available such as Ousmane Dieng, Nikola Jovic, Tyty Washington, Mark Williams, Kendall Brown, Agbaji, Wendell Moore, Beachamp and Miller. I am looking forward to getting some more info from the combine such as wingspan and other measurables, along with vertical and speed.

[KG4Ever]

Who should we target at 40? Every year it seems at least one or more bigs that were projected to go first round, drop hard. So there is at least some chance that one of Kessler, Koloko, Lidell, Kamagate drops. Non-bigs at 40 that I am intrigued by include David Roddy, Procida, Hugo Besson and of course Leonard Miller if he were to fall. I am also intrigued by Jalen Williams but think he might be available with our later pick.

[KG4Ever]

TyTy Washington intrigues me a little as his college numbers seem a bit better than Maxey in terms of shooting percentages and has more assists and less turnovers than Maxey. He put up decent assist figures despite sharing ball handling duties with Wheeler. Several Kentucky guards were pleasant surprises compared to their draft position including Maxey, Bledsoe, Rajon Rondo, Quickley, Tyler Herro, Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and last but not least, Devin Booker. Given the pedigree and that he compared favorably with Maxey, I wouldn't be disappointed if we ended up with him. I also watched a video with him and Kennedy Chandler and was impressed with Chandler too, though he is a smaller at 6"0 and think the 19 spot is a bit too high for him. While I am usually dismissive of guards that short, Kyle Lowry is that height and Conley is just 6"1.

[Q-is-here]

I'm all about rebounding.

Ideally, the Wolves should attempt to do 2 long term things with this:

add another big to at worst replace Naz, at best, start at the 4 long term.

or

draft D'Lo's replacement at PG.

At 19, I think both are possible. Jean Montero should absolutely be the guy we get, continue to develop and by year 2 at the latest should be the starting PG on this team.

Because Oscar Tshiebwe went back to school, I'm all for upside. Christian Koloko at 19 would offer that too. Think Zeke Nnaji (convenient that both went to Arizona). Pac-12 DPOY, 7'1''. Three year guy who has already proven he can add weight to his frame and improve. Good shot blocker.


I know some love to keep aiming for the fences and that's fine, but if this team is gonna have issues addressing needs in free agency, the draft is a good way to have those things in place without having to be at the mercy of these agents.

We can't fix every issue, but one of these two needs HAS to be addressed on draft night. Otherwise management is blowing a huge opportunity to show they can find talent.

But even if they make a good pick, do you really think we're going to find a 2nd string 5 or DLO replacement that can really make a big impact as a rookie!? Pipedream....

Again, I'm all for making smart picks and hoping guys pan out or finding some diamond in the rough on the free agent market, but you seem to think this is the main path to getting better. We have the assets to go find a proven plus-level player or two.

[Lipoli390]

I look at the draft as more of a longer-term play. It's the feeder system to keep the franchise healthy and to provide a hedge against unforeseen events like injuries or stalled development of our current young guys. it's important to keep a steady infusion of young talent into the organization through smart use of the draft. And as we've seen lately, you don't necessarily have to wait long for draft picks to be difference makers. Just look at Tyrese Maxey and Desmond Bane in their second seasons.

When it comes to filling the Wolves immediate need for a rebounding big to start next to KAT, we definitely have the assets to get that player this offseason without trading our #19 or #40 picks. We'll be $17 million under the luxury tax threshold once the team relinquishes its cap holds on Okogie and Layman even if we re-sign Prince for $10 million. We will have the full MLE under which the Wolves can offer a contract that starts at around $10M in the first year. We also have some valuable trade assets like Beasley and Naz Reid. We could add two of our three second-round picks to a deal as additional sweetener. All of that should be more than enough to add a quality rebounding big as an upgrade over Vanderbilt. By upgrading our starting big with one move, we would simultaneously improve our depth with Vanderbilt as a rebounding energy guy off the bench. We also have the full BAE, which starts at around $4M. That's enough to add a quality vet for more depth.

Meanwhile, the Wolves should use this draft to land one or two talented players.

[kekgeek]

Fantastic write up Lip. I'm cool with trading the 1st round pick if we are adding a legit 25 minute per game player.

Outside of that I just want best player available at our pick. I understand the wolves biggest weakness is defensive rebounding but no need to reach for a big if it isn't the best player available. The wolves need to look past this upcoming season and find the best long term player because Naz and Nowell are probably gone after next year or will get a pay jump. Kat will get the super max, Ant going to get the max, McDaniels will hopefully improve to get legit paid. Wolves have 4 drafts assets to re stock our young core. Hopefully the wolves use that to think long term and not short term.