Top 5 Talent

[Carlos Danger]

Can't sleep tonight for some reason. I've been reading the draft threads on here. I assume we'll get a top 5 pick this year. So, I took a peek at prior drafts on BBall Reference and noticed we've had a bunch of top 5 picks come through here over the years including four #1 over all picks:

Draft Player
1995: Joe Smith and Kevin Garnett
1996 Steph Marbury
1997 Chancey Billups
1998 Olowakandi
2000 Mike Miller
2003 Darko
2006 Sheldon Williams
2008 Beasely and K. Love
2009 Rubio
2010 Wes Johnson
2011 Derrick WIlliams
2013 Anthony Bennett
2014 Wiggins

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Everyone should take a long, hard look at that list. About 60% of those guys turned out to be total busts or just OK-ish NBA players. So while we all drool over having a top 5 pick this year, there is probably no better than a 50/50 chance that any given player will end up being really good.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Or, if you want to take a more "glass half full" approach, we have a 40% chance of adding a guy like KG, Love, Marbury or Wiggins to an already impressive core (hopefully with Wiggins personality and attitude).

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Or, if you want to take a more "glass half full" approach, we have a 40% chance of adding a guy like KG, Love, Marbury or Wiggins to an already impressive core (hopefully with Wiggins personality and attitude).

Heh, very true!

[Carlos Danger]

Everyone should take a long, hard look at that list. About 60% of those guys turned out to be total busts or just OK-ish NBA players. So while we all drool over having a top 5 pick this year, there is probably no better than a 50/50 chance that any given player will end up being really good.

Yep. All this draft talk on the other post just got me curious. Let's face it, the NBA draft is a total crapshoot! I've even gone back and "Googled" some prior NBA mock drafts. Here's a great one from 2010 (pay special attention to the second paragraph where Wes Johnson was on the rise):

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/05/18/consensus.mock/


Same draft, different mock discussing concerns about Cousins:

http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smithmockdraft_100624.html

[Coolbreeze44]

That list is somewhat deceptive because for all the ones who did not start their career here, they came through because they had already failed elsewhere. No one is going to give up an Olowakandi, Miller, Darko, Williams, Beasely, or Bennett if they showed any true star potential at their prior stop(s). But Q's point is well taken. A top 5 pick doesn't guarantee anything. We should know that. And remember it's not where you pick, it's who you draft. San Antonio has shown us this in recent years.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Top-five pick doesn't guarantee anything, no, but that's why you have a GM/scouts/player evaluations/etc. As Cool said, it's WHO you draft that matters. Personally, I trust Flip the GM. He's done well in my book.

You could have the No. 1 pick and it doesn't technically guarantee anything, but should you trade it out of fear for the unknown? In some circumstances, yes, but in ours, no. We have to roll the dice on the potential that top-five pick.

[kekgeek]

Just hypothetical would you trade our first for the Greek freak and Henson

[Porckchop]

Also in play here is the fact that some drafts were just weak across the board. It takes a certain ammount of luck to be bad at the right time. I think luck has found the wolves finally, that they might be able to draft (trade for ) two near can't miss players two years in a row. The draft doesnt always offer up blue chippers.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Just hypothetical would you trade our first for the Greek freak and Henson

Lol no. Wouldn't even think about it.